How Has Houston’s Offense Fared So Far?
Posted 15 November 2012 - 12:16 AM
Posted 16 November 2012 - 08:47 PM
Posted 17 November 2012 - 12:51 AM
vs Portland: 1-6
vs Denver: 0-5
@ Memphis: 1-6
vs Detroit: 2-6
vs Miami: 1-6
vs New Orleans: 1-7
Which averages out at 1-6. So if he makes even one more 3 per game, I think we're comfortably in the top half in terms of offensive efficiency and probably would have had a couple more wins. Scoring that extra three per game would make it a bit easier for him to drive as well, which he has been doing OK although not quite with the ease of games 1 and 2.
The second quarter against New Orleans shows what can happen when you get on a hot streak from range - a big part of scoring so many in that quarter was a function of Douglas and Morris burying their three pointers. I think that's the first time this season I remember seeing one of those, hopefully there will be a few more in later games. Once Harden comes out of his mini-slump (which I hope he will soon), it should happen more often.
Posted 17 November 2012 - 06:59 PM
Posted 18 November 2012 - 03:17 AM
I live in Austin with no way to see Houston play so take my analysis with a grain of salt. That being said, a quick glance at ESPN's team stats shows Houston's offense ranks 8th in scoring right now. Of the top 10 teams our shooting % is the lowest (.423). Also, our turnover rate is a little high (17.2/game). Our free throw % is fine and our rebounding looks solid. I feel that a small shift in both shooting % and TO rate will help a lot and those are the two things that time will bring as the players adjust and settle into the season. Asik and Harden are both guilty of too many turnovers. In short, I am optimistic and pleased thus far. We are top 10 with lots of room for improvement.
Houston is only in the top 10 in points per game because of the fast pace they play (and because they've played in two overtime games). You should always use points per 100 possession metrics in preference to points per game as they give a much clearer picture of how good an offence actually is. By that metric Houston are 15th in the league, which is a better reflection of where we're at right now. The offense is still basic and prone to shutting down late in games.
Even with that, it's still not worth reading too much into stats like this at this early stage in the season. Strength of schedule and a hot shooting night here or there can seriously distort the data. It's only when teams have played about 20 games that there's enough averaging for the numbers to become statistically significant.
Agree with you about the turnovers - there was an epidemic at the start of the season that was probably due in part to the players' lack of familiarity with each other. Seems to have settled down a bit over the last few games though, and hopefully that trend will continue as the season progresses. You're not going to eliminate Asik's turnovers - he is always going to be a little bit clumsy and these things happen. But Harden should see improvement.
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