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@  slick shoes : (22 July 2014 - 03:11 AM) live by the three, die by the three.
@  feelingsuper... : (22 July 2014 - 02:54 AM) 21% on three pointers by Canaan and company, damn.
@  feelingsuper... : (22 July 2014 - 02:51 AM) Rockets Summer Leaguers shot 32%, rough ending.
@  Buckko : (20 July 2014 - 07:01 PM) I refer to the writers, as yall due to the multiple of them. We are the loyal readers. I should've word it better.
@  rockets best... : (20 July 2014 - 06:12 PM) we and y'all are the same people :lol:
@  bboley24 : (20 July 2014 - 12:32 PM) who is we and who is yall?
@  Buckko : (20 July 2014 - 08:21 AM) Can we get a post about defensive improvement or yall waiting until the defensive assistant gets chosen?
@  Buckko : (20 July 2014 - 07:37 AM) With internal improvement, the defensive minded FA acquisitions, and hopefully a good Defensive minded assistant. The rockets will be closer to a top 5 D than top 10.
@  miketheodio : (20 July 2014 - 05:55 AM) i wonder how much better the starting 5 will be with a wing who actually plays defense
@  rockets best... : (18 July 2014 - 09:26 PM) Kendall Marshall is Ish Smith of a few years ago
@  Cooper : (18 July 2014 - 07:33 PM) Lakers waived Kendall Marshall, hes decent.
@  YaoMan : (18 July 2014 - 07:10 PM) @ slick shoes - And I'm bringing muzzles for them ladies in case they feel the need to start!
@  slick shoes : (18 July 2014 - 07:06 PM) @YaoMan I got a bit nervous at the Bosh strike out but one: FA isn't over and two: it's a long way until the trade deadline. As the saying goes, "It's not over until the fat lady sings."
@  YaoMan : (18 July 2014 - 07:00 PM) @ slick shoes, great points. Just nervous energy while all productive FAs are starting to get snatched up!
@  Cooper : (18 July 2014 - 05:24 PM) yeah i doubt they bringing these guys in with the expectation of them being great, we just need guys to soak up some min maybe a few pan out, maybe they don't.
@  slick shoes : (18 July 2014 - 04:53 PM) We could possibly be just filling slots and/or acquiring trade pieces at this point. Also keep in mind that these contracts are short and cheap which makes them moveable and also keeps us flexible cap wise.
@  YaoMan : (18 July 2014 - 03:52 PM) Adrien, Dorsey and Ish Smith signings (all ex-Rockets) don't impress me in the least...They do not replace any of the production that has left...
@  bladad : (18 July 2014 - 11:38 AM) At this point, would you let go of Wiggins or Kyrie? Lebron could just play point forward for the team...
@  08huangj : (18 July 2014 - 02:36 AM) Reports say that the Rockets just signed Ish Smith?
@  Cooper : (18 July 2014 - 12:45 AM) I don't know if Id trade wiggins for love. Wiggins with lebron would wreck on D. having Irving love and waiters as generally minus defenders and no real rim protector could be a problem.

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Win Total Prediction Competition

Prognostication Galore!

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63 replies to this topic

#1 Sir Thursday

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Posted 19 October 2012 - 10:13 AM

Thought I'd introduce a friendly little competition. This won't have much payoff until the end of the season, but nevertheless should be an interesting exercise.

Rules:
  • Before the season starts, you submit your prediction for the final win total of every team in the NBA.
  • There are 1230 games in an NBA season, so your predictions must sum to 1230.
  • At the end of the season, you score the difference between your prediction and the actual win total for each team.
  • To make things more interesting, each participant must nominate one team from each division. They score double points for their predictions about those teams.
  • Whoever has the lowest total score wins!
And that's it. I'll submit my guesses later today, and I invite you all to do the same. Then we can laugh at how wrong we were at the end of the season.

ST
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#2 willdarling

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Posted 19 October 2012 - 02:45 PM

This will be embarrassing in 7 months but here goes... (teams in bold are my nominated teams)

Atlantic
Celtics 49-33
Nets 47-35
76ers 47-35
Knicks 41-41
Raptors 29-53

Central
Pacers 53-29
Bulls 45-37
Bucks 37-45
Cavs 35-47
Pistons 31-51

Southeast
Heat 62-20
Hawks 40-42
Wizards 37-45
Magic 25-57
Bobcats 15-67

Northwest
Thunder 56-26
Nuggets 55-27
Jazz 44-38
Wolves 42-40
Blazers 36-46

Pacific
Lakers 57-25
Clippers 50-32
Suns 35-47
Warriors 32-50
Kings 26-56

Southwest
Spurs 52-30
Memphis 51-31
Mavs 45-37
Rockets 31-51
Hornets 25-57

(Edited after the Harden trade)
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#3 tombrokeoff

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Posted 19 October 2012 - 05:53 PM

man this is tough and could take a min. ill try and come up with something, but cant guarantee i will.
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#4 Sir Thursday

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Posted 19 October 2012 - 06:24 PM

man this is tough and could take a min. ill try and come up with something, but cant guarantee i will.


It'll take a little while to get right, but you've got a week and a half until the start of the season, so plenty of time. Part of the challenge is making it all add up - it's very easy to get carried away and assign too many wins to the first ones you do and leave yourself without enough left at the end.

OK, here's mine:

Atlantic:

New Jersey: 50-32
Boston: 49-33
New York: 44-38
Philidelphia: 40-42
Toronto: 38-44

Central:

Indiana: 50-32
Chicago: 43-39
Detroit: 34-48
Milwaukee: 36-46
Cleveland: 31-51

Southeast:

Miami: 59-23
Atlanta: 47-35
Washington: 28-54
Orlando: 24-58
Charlotte: 19-63

Northwest:

Oklahoma City: 56-26
Denver: 49-33
Minnesota: 41-41
Utah: 43-39
Portland: 29-53

Pacific:

LA Lakers: 59-23
LA Clippers: 49-33
Golden State: 40-42
Phoenix: 32-50
Sacramento: 26-56

Southwest:

San Antonio: 55-27
Memphis: 50-32
Dallas: 41-41
Houston: 40-42
New Orleans: 28-54
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#5 willdarling

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Posted 19 October 2012 - 06:43 PM

I can see that there are going to be some seriously different opinions with this exercise. This will be fun.
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#6 willdarling

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Posted 19 October 2012 - 06:44 PM

Oh and Sir Thursday, you have the Minnesota playing just 72 games
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#7 Sir Thursday

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Posted 19 October 2012 - 06:54 PM

Oh and Sir Thursday, you have the Minnesota playing just 72 games


Oops, my bad. Doesn't change anything really because I just filled in the win totals and then tried to make them all add up to 82. Will correct it though.

I was interested by the teams you choose for your double pointers. I figured it was best to go with teams that had been fairly stable and would be likely to replicate their numbers the next year, but I notice you've picked quite a few teams that are in flux (Bulls, Wolves, Rockets). Any reason for those?

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#8 willdarling

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Posted 20 October 2012 - 07:58 AM

With the double pointers (except for Rockets) i've simply gone for the teams I feel most confident about.
I don't feel that the wolves are too much in flux at the moment (although injuries will have a big effect on their season). If anything I feel less confident about the Bulls, 76ers and Wolves owing to them being middle of the road teams. I feel a lot more confident with my Rockets, Bobcats and Kings picks as they are some of the poorer teams in the league.
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#9 Sir Thursday

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Posted 20 October 2012 - 03:00 PM

By the way Will, I just counted up your predictions and they added up to 1228 games, so you need to add another couple of wins to some of the teams.

I, on the other hand, was off by a whopping 10 games! I'll make the adjustments to my predictions by editing my original post.

ST
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#10 blakecouey

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Posted 22 October 2012 - 02:49 AM

This will be fun. Need a way to lock the posts individually(to keep from editing) to keep people honest-or back up a copy of everyone's picks on your own post ST.
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#11 Sir Thursday

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Posted 22 October 2012 - 09:45 AM

People are free to edit their posts up to the the day before the season starts. Then I'll copy everyone's predictions down into a spreadsheet to keep track.

With all the injury news that's been coming out recently, there's definitely scope for adjusting some of the win totals...

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#12 tombrokeoff

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 04:28 AM

ok here goes nothing....this was pretty tough. its late and i didnt use a spreadsheet to help me add, so i hope my sums are correct

boston 52-30
brooklyn 50-32
philly 45-37
new york 44-38
toronto 24-58

chicago 50-32
indiana 47-35
milwaukee 43-39
detroit 38-44
cleveland 31-51

miami 57-25
atlanta 46-36
orlando 29-53
charlotte 26-56
washington 26-56

oklahoma city 54-28
denver 47-35
utah 44-38
minnesota 43-39
portland 35-47

san antonio 47-35
memphis 44-38
dallas 43-39
houston 40-42
new orleans 33-49

lakers 58-24
clippers 51-31
phoenix 40-42
golden state 23-59
sacramento 20-62
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#13 sircharles

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 07:40 PM

you really think atlanta will be that bad?
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#14 tombrokeoff

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 09:03 PM

you really think atlanta will be that bad?


probably not, but it was late last night and after i initially made all of my predictions, it added up to like 92 more wins than i needed. so i went through and adjusted enough to lower it down. and the entire time, atlanta was prob the team i was most on the fence about. i know theyre sort of rebulding or something. lost at least 1 solid player. i didnt go and look at their roster like i should have and i just threw out a number. i prob should have had them a little over .500, but oh well. at least i didnt bold them! lol
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#15 tombrokeoff

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 09:04 PM

that said, theres almost always a team with injuries, bad luck, whatever and they end up doing worse than expected. maybe ill get lucky and atlanta will have issues!
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#16 tombrokeoff

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 09:08 PM

sorry for multiple replies but .... if they trade josh smith that could change a lot.
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#17 Sir Thursday

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 10:07 PM

Remember you can edit your post all the way up until the night before the season starts if you want to make changes ;).

Anyone else wanting to try their hand at this? Not got a whole lot of takers so far...:(

ST
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#18 blakecouey

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 11:32 PM

Im going to, just trying to get caught up on other things first.
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#19 Dan G

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 11:44 PM

Alrighty I've put this off long enough so here goes nothing:

Atlantic

Boston 52-30
Philadelphia 50-32
Brooklyn 44-38
New York 43-39
Toronto 35-47

Central

Indiana 54-28
Chicago 43-39
Milwaukee 39-43
Detroit 32-50
Cleveland 27-55

Southeast

Miami 62-20
Atlanta 38-44
Washington 29-53
Orlando 24-58
Charlotte 14-68

Northwest

Oklahoma City 55-27
Denver 53-29
Utah 42-40
Minnesota 38-44
Portland 32-50

Pacific

LA Lakers 60-22
LA Clippers 52-30
Phoenix 41-41
Golden State 33-49
Sacramento 25-57

Southwest

San Antonio 54-28
Memphis 50-32
Dallas 43-39
Houston 39-43
New Orleans 27-55

Edited by Dan G, 30 October 2012 - 09:23 AM.

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#20 ale11

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 05:31 PM

I'm in, but I need some time to figure it out....it's just a game, but it's always nice to win ;)
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