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@  King's G... : (04 March 2015 - 10:34 AM) @cooper we couldnt closed even when Harden played in the first game
@  King's G... : (04 March 2015 - 09:56 AM) nice game were equally good with or without Harden and dwight
@  TTrainW : (04 March 2015 - 03:29 AM) passing was just really sloppy. there were some times where we tried to get it to the post to run a play but the passing just wasn't crisp or on point.
@  Mario Peña : (04 March 2015 - 03:14 AM) Good first 40 minutes and hopefully these rotation players have learned something about crunch time execution and effort.
@  Cooper : (04 March 2015 - 02:51 AM) can't close without harden.
@  TTrainW : (04 March 2015 - 02:37 AM) intensity
@  jorgeaam : (04 March 2015 - 02:34 AM) BENCH JOSH SMITH NOW!!!
@  jorgeaam : (04 March 2015 - 02:30 AM) Ok, let's stop running the offense through Josh Smith now
@  thenit : (04 March 2015 - 01:31 AM) DMo on pace for a quad double
@  TTrainW : (04 March 2015 - 01:25 AM) this game is pretty encouraging
@  jorgeaam : (04 March 2015 - 12:55 AM) I like the ball movement the first unit is showing without Harden, it seems everybody is touching the ball
@  YaoMan : (03 March 2015 - 11:33 PM) Corey is brewing up a storm tonight! And TJ is going to grab 15 boards and block 5 shots!
@  Losthief : (03 March 2015 - 11:31 PM) joke...pfft...it's the expectation lol!
@  Sir Thursday : (03 March 2015 - 11:23 PM) Oh wait, just saw cointurtlemoose already made that joke.
@  Sir Thursday : (03 March 2015 - 11:22 PM) Time for Corey Brewer to reprise his 51 point game, am I right?
@  YaoMan : (03 March 2015 - 09:31 PM) @JG but Portland is right on the Rox tail and a loss to ATL would move them 2.5 from Mem so it would be moot point to just to skip ATL. In this part of the season, every game counts. If Rox lose to ATL but wins against MEM, they're right back where they are now at 1.5 back with possibly Portland tied with them...
@  thejohnnygold : (03 March 2015 - 09:14 PM) That's only because Jeremy Lin is the GOAT
@  King's G... : (03 March 2015 - 06:06 PM) a game without harden - an exciting game... as much as i like harden its kinda boring and predictable that rockets are focusing too much on him... in recent years we did pretty well without harden
@  cointurtlemoose : (03 March 2015 - 05:26 PM) IMO, our chances of a win are prettyyy slim
@  cointurtlemoose : (03 March 2015 - 05:25 PM) Corey Brewer goes for 51...

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Prognostication Galore!

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63 replies to this topic

#1 Sir Thursday

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Posted 19 October 2012 - 10:13 AM

Thought I'd introduce a friendly little competition. This won't have much payoff until the end of the season, but nevertheless should be an interesting exercise.

Rules:
  • Before the season starts, you submit your prediction for the final win total of every team in the NBA.
  • There are 1230 games in an NBA season, so your predictions must sum to 1230.
  • At the end of the season, you score the difference between your prediction and the actual win total for each team.
  • To make things more interesting, each participant must nominate one team from each division. They score double points for their predictions about those teams.
  • Whoever has the lowest total score wins!
And that's it. I'll submit my guesses later today, and I invite you all to do the same. Then we can laugh at how wrong we were at the end of the season.

ST
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#2 willdarling

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Posted 19 October 2012 - 02:45 PM

This will be embarrassing in 7 months but here goes... (teams in bold are my nominated teams)

Atlantic
Celtics 49-33
Nets 47-35
76ers 47-35
Knicks 41-41
Raptors 29-53

Central
Pacers 53-29
Bulls 45-37
Bucks 37-45
Cavs 35-47
Pistons 31-51

Southeast
Heat 62-20
Hawks 40-42
Wizards 37-45
Magic 25-57
Bobcats 15-67

Northwest
Thunder 56-26
Nuggets 55-27
Jazz 44-38
Wolves 42-40
Blazers 36-46

Pacific
Lakers 57-25
Clippers 50-32
Suns 35-47
Warriors 32-50
Kings 26-56

Southwest
Spurs 52-30
Memphis 51-31
Mavs 45-37
Rockets 31-51
Hornets 25-57

(Edited after the Harden trade)
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#3 tombrokeoff

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Posted 19 October 2012 - 05:53 PM

man this is tough and could take a min. ill try and come up with something, but cant guarantee i will.
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#4 Sir Thursday

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Posted 19 October 2012 - 06:24 PM

man this is tough and could take a min. ill try and come up with something, but cant guarantee i will.


It'll take a little while to get right, but you've got a week and a half until the start of the season, so plenty of time. Part of the challenge is making it all add up - it's very easy to get carried away and assign too many wins to the first ones you do and leave yourself without enough left at the end.

OK, here's mine:

Atlantic:

New Jersey: 50-32
Boston: 49-33
New York: 44-38
Philidelphia: 40-42
Toronto: 38-44

Central:

Indiana: 50-32
Chicago: 43-39
Detroit: 34-48
Milwaukee: 36-46
Cleveland: 31-51

Southeast:

Miami: 59-23
Atlanta: 47-35
Washington: 28-54
Orlando: 24-58
Charlotte: 19-63

Northwest:

Oklahoma City: 56-26
Denver: 49-33
Minnesota: 41-41
Utah: 43-39
Portland: 29-53

Pacific:

LA Lakers: 59-23
LA Clippers: 49-33
Golden State: 40-42
Phoenix: 32-50
Sacramento: 26-56

Southwest:

San Antonio: 55-27
Memphis: 50-32
Dallas: 41-41
Houston: 40-42
New Orleans: 28-54
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#5 willdarling

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Posted 19 October 2012 - 06:43 PM

I can see that there are going to be some seriously different opinions with this exercise. This will be fun.
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#6 willdarling

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Posted 19 October 2012 - 06:44 PM

Oh and Sir Thursday, you have the Minnesota playing just 72 games
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#7 Sir Thursday

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Posted 19 October 2012 - 06:54 PM

Oh and Sir Thursday, you have the Minnesota playing just 72 games


Oops, my bad. Doesn't change anything really because I just filled in the win totals and then tried to make them all add up to 82. Will correct it though.

I was interested by the teams you choose for your double pointers. I figured it was best to go with teams that had been fairly stable and would be likely to replicate their numbers the next year, but I notice you've picked quite a few teams that are in flux (Bulls, Wolves, Rockets). Any reason for those?

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#8 willdarling

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Posted 20 October 2012 - 07:58 AM

With the double pointers (except for Rockets) i've simply gone for the teams I feel most confident about.
I don't feel that the wolves are too much in flux at the moment (although injuries will have a big effect on their season). If anything I feel less confident about the Bulls, 76ers and Wolves owing to them being middle of the road teams. I feel a lot more confident with my Rockets, Bobcats and Kings picks as they are some of the poorer teams in the league.
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#9 Sir Thursday

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Posted 20 October 2012 - 03:00 PM

By the way Will, I just counted up your predictions and they added up to 1228 games, so you need to add another couple of wins to some of the teams.

I, on the other hand, was off by a whopping 10 games! I'll make the adjustments to my predictions by editing my original post.

ST
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#10 blakecouey

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Posted 22 October 2012 - 02:49 AM

This will be fun. Need a way to lock the posts individually(to keep from editing) to keep people honest-or back up a copy of everyone's picks on your own post ST.
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#11 Sir Thursday

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Posted 22 October 2012 - 09:45 AM

People are free to edit their posts up to the the day before the season starts. Then I'll copy everyone's predictions down into a spreadsheet to keep track.

With all the injury news that's been coming out recently, there's definitely scope for adjusting some of the win totals...

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#12 tombrokeoff

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 04:28 AM

ok here goes nothing....this was pretty tough. its late and i didnt use a spreadsheet to help me add, so i hope my sums are correct

boston 52-30
brooklyn 50-32
philly 45-37
new york 44-38
toronto 24-58

chicago 50-32
indiana 47-35
milwaukee 43-39
detroit 38-44
cleveland 31-51

miami 57-25
atlanta 46-36
orlando 29-53
charlotte 26-56
washington 26-56

oklahoma city 54-28
denver 47-35
utah 44-38
minnesota 43-39
portland 35-47

san antonio 47-35
memphis 44-38
dallas 43-39
houston 40-42
new orleans 33-49

lakers 58-24
clippers 51-31
phoenix 40-42
golden state 23-59
sacramento 20-62
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#13 sircharles

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 07:40 PM

you really think atlanta will be that bad?
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#14 tombrokeoff

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 09:03 PM

you really think atlanta will be that bad?


probably not, but it was late last night and after i initially made all of my predictions, it added up to like 92 more wins than i needed. so i went through and adjusted enough to lower it down. and the entire time, atlanta was prob the team i was most on the fence about. i know theyre sort of rebulding or something. lost at least 1 solid player. i didnt go and look at their roster like i should have and i just threw out a number. i prob should have had them a little over .500, but oh well. at least i didnt bold them! lol
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#15 tombrokeoff

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 09:04 PM

that said, theres almost always a team with injuries, bad luck, whatever and they end up doing worse than expected. maybe ill get lucky and atlanta will have issues!
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#16 tombrokeoff

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 09:08 PM

sorry for multiple replies but .... if they trade josh smith that could change a lot.
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#17 Sir Thursday

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 10:07 PM

Remember you can edit your post all the way up until the night before the season starts if you want to make changes ;).

Anyone else wanting to try their hand at this? Not got a whole lot of takers so far...:(

ST
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#18 blakecouey

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 11:32 PM

Im going to, just trying to get caught up on other things first.
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#19 Dan G

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 11:44 PM

Alrighty I've put this off long enough so here goes nothing:

Atlantic

Boston 52-30
Philadelphia 50-32
Brooklyn 44-38
New York 43-39
Toronto 35-47

Central

Indiana 54-28
Chicago 43-39
Milwaukee 39-43
Detroit 32-50
Cleveland 27-55

Southeast

Miami 62-20
Atlanta 38-44
Washington 29-53
Orlando 24-58
Charlotte 14-68

Northwest

Oklahoma City 55-27
Denver 53-29
Utah 42-40
Minnesota 38-44
Portland 32-50

Pacific

LA Lakers 60-22
LA Clippers 52-30
Phoenix 41-41
Golden State 33-49
Sacramento 25-57

Southwest

San Antonio 54-28
Memphis 50-32
Dallas 43-39
Houston 39-43
New Orleans 27-55

Edited by Dan G, 30 October 2012 - 09:23 AM.

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:lol: All in the game, yo, :D all in the game :lol:!


#20 ale11

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 05:31 PM

I'm in, but I need some time to figure it out....it's just a game, but it's always nice to win ;)
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