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@  slick shoes : (28 April 2017 - 04:53 PM) Wow, Larry Bird steps down as president of the Pacers. What a dumpster fire that organization is.
@  thejohnnygold : (27 April 2017 - 08:50 PM) I think Steph Curry and Kevin Durant would both say, "yes". That is largely how they got their MVP's
@  rocketrick : (27 April 2017 - 02:48 PM) So should MVP consideration also be based on Efficiency and not just DD's and TD's?
@  rocketrick : (27 April 2017 - 02:47 PM) Looking Forward to Round 2, Western Conf Semi-Finals, Most Likely vs. Spurs.
@  thejohnnygold : (23 April 2017 - 10:20 PM) "Pheeeeew!" --(Every Rockets fan today)
@  rocketrick : (20 April 2017 - 04:28 PM) Incredible Atmosphere at Toyota Center last night! Rockets are for Real people.....
@  thejohnnygold : (17 April 2017 - 12:47 PM) The defense was there too. All in all, a good win.
@  Mario Peña : (17 April 2017 - 04:08 AM) I like that effort on the boards tonight and second chance points tonight. I hope they can finish OKC in 5 or less.
@  DenverRocket : (05 April 2017 - 07:15 PM) Give me a shout and if I'm around, I'll be happy to honor my commitment!
@  slick shoes : (05 April 2017 - 06:34 PM) I'll be in Denver Memorial Day weekend and Labor Day weekend ;)
@  DenverRocket : (05 April 2017 - 04:52 PM) Oh and congrats to @SlickShoes on winning the bracket challenge handily :) If I ever meet you, I'll buy you a beer!
@  DenverRocket : (04 April 2017 - 06:23 PM) Worth a read, Who's The Best Bargain in the NBA: http://www.espn.com/...nd-best-bargain
@  thejohnnygold : (31 March 2017 - 04:19 PM) Probably...mine's toast.
@  slick shoes : (31 March 2017 - 02:12 PM) Is it safe to assume I have taken the bracket challenge??
@  thejohnnygold : (15 March 2017 - 12:58 PM) I'm in!
@  DenverRocket : (15 March 2017 - 02:12 AM) You can join my not knowing anything club! :-)
@  slick shoes : (15 March 2017 - 01:34 AM) I filled one out. I don't know anything about college ball so everything was gut feel. wish me luck!
@  DenverRocket : (15 March 2017 - 12:06 AM) If anyone is interested in joining a Red94 bracket challenge, I've set one up here: http://games.espn.co...groupID=1517203
@  slick shoes : (14 March 2017 - 02:48 PM) As much fun as it is to watch the Warriors lose, I'm gonna need them to go ahead and take 1st place again so that we can potentially avoid them until the WCF.
@  SadLakerFan : (13 March 2017 - 02:24 PM) My Lakers coming into town. Hope Bev can cover our SG of the future David Nwaba. He's lighting it up.

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On Serge Ibaka


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#1 Red94

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 01:26 AM

New post: On Serge Ibaka
By: Rahat Huq

https://twitter.com/RedNinetyFour/status/829340943694315520

 

And to clarify there, as I did in a follow-up tweet, Ennis is not the third prospect.  The prospects would be Harrell, McDaniels, and the draft pick.

 

Ibaka this year is shooting .385 on 3's, hitting 1.5 per 3.9 attempts per game.  That's up from last year's 32%, but not too strong a deviation from the previous season's .376.  What's important to note is that while he is not elite e.g. Ryan Anderson (who is hitting an insane 2.8 3's per game at 41%), Ibaka is at the least a credible threat from long-range, as we saw last night.  And that credibility is important, for an offense which bases itself upon floor spacing.

 

As has been well-documented, Ibaka has slipped drastically in other areas.  His total rebounding percentage is down to 12.4, down from a peak of 17.2 during his age 20 season in 2009-2010.  That rebounding percentage has steadily been trending downward.  Offensive rebounding percentage is down to a career low of 6.1, less than half of a career high percentage of 13.2 during his age 22 season in 2011-2012. However, defensive rebounding percentage is up to 19.1, up from 16.2 last season, and approaching his career high of 21.9 during his age 20 season of 2009-2010.

 

Blocked shots have taken a nosedive.  Per 36 minutes, Ibaka is averaging 1.9 blocked shots per game this year, the lowest figure of his career.  By comparison, in 2011-2012, during his age 22 season, Ibaka averaged 4.8 blocks with an insane block percentage of 9.8.  The block percentage now is at a career low of 4.2.

 

Ibaka is now number 36 in DRPM among power forwards, behind Kevin Love and Dirk Nowitzki.  Take that for what its worth.  He was 36 last year, fifth in 2014-2015, and sixth in 2013-2014.  That's a steep drop-off.

 

Opponents are shooting 53.9% at the rim this season against Ibaka.  (They are shooting 49.2% against Clint Capela).  In 2015-2016, opponents shot 43.6% at the rim against Ibaka.  In 2014-2015, they shot 40.8%.  And in 2013-2014, they shot 45.1%

 

This is all to say that I am aware that Ibaka is not a savior and that there is a limit to what I would be willing to give up.  I am aware of his rather drastic decline, by the numbers.  This is all to say that I am aware that such a trade would likely be a rental.

 

Even in his current state, Ibaka represents an upgrade in this team's frontcourt rotation.  He would provide a veteran presence and maybe more importantly, another outside shooting threat.  When the Rockets close, they could send out a lineup of Harden, Gordon, Anderson, one of either Beverley or Ariza, and Ibaka, boasting five three point shooters, without sacrificing anything on the defensive end.  While he is no longer peak DPOY Serge Ibaka (who is!??!?), he is still better defensively than Houston's current options.

 

One might posit, in rebuttal, the seeming futility of relinquishing assets for a rental acquisition.  I'd counter on two fronts.  First, to free up room this summer, Brewer would need to be traded in the offseason, and to do that would require a sweetener.  The thinking here would be that if the Rockets were going to attach assets to unload Brewer in the summer anyways, if going that route, they would do well to at least get value in the return during this season.  The greater point, however, is that regular season success, if even falling short of the ultimate goal, is not without value.  We saw the Rockets last season fail to secure even a meeting with Kevin Durant, after years of planning the pursuit.  As I said this morning, there is tremendous value to the statement that "we have made two Western Conference Finals in three seasons."  Don't think of it that the Warriors will win anyway.  Think, independent of everyone else, "how far can my team go?"  This basketball team is very good, and this is a season where it has the league MVP.  As we saw last season, those are rare conditions.


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#2 RocketsChamp

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 04:23 AM

Ibaka will be a great addition to the Rockets. He is my number one two-way/all-round big man career defender in the league. His ability to shoot from all corners and regions of the floor is an asset. He can shoot 3s like Klay Thompson at nearly 40%, he knocks down jump shots like Derozan, he pump-fakes like Cousins, he has quick feet for a 6'11 player to chase down and guard a smaller player, and most importantly he makes free throws like Durant at nearly 85% which is very rare, extremely rare for a big man career defender, considering his counterparts like Howard, De Andre Jordan, Drummond, Biyombo, Capela, ex player Ben Wallace, could barely shoot...can't make free throws, can't shoot jump shots and would never attempt 3s.

 

He will be our number two scoring option behind Harden with the additional bonus of rim protection, rebounds and defense! I understand his rebounds are down but we have to keep in mind that Orlando has two of the best rebounders in the league...Vucevic and Biyombo, so that's a factor for his low rebound. That will change if he makes it to Houston.

 

Can't wait for the Rockets to face OKC and Warriors in the playoffs...great reunion!

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#3 thejohnnygold

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 04:06 PM

The only thing I disagree with here is giving up Harrell for what is likely a half season of Ibaka.  I think he can become a really good third banana once he gets a little more experience and 15-20 more pounds of muscle.

 

Orlando is spared the ridicule of being the worst run franchise over recent years simply because the Knicks, Kings, Nets, and (arguably) the Bulls exist.  I am not inclined to fork over even one quality prospect for Ibaka and in so doing help them correct one of their many bone-headed moves.

 

There is also the team itself to consider.  Both our coach and MVP-to-be have openly stated they like the team as is.  I don't think that falls on deaf ears when it comes to Morey and Alexander.

 

As for the argument about reaching the WCF...I'm all for that (duh!).  I don't think running with Harrell and Dekker prevents us from achieving that goal.  We all know that starters get more run once the playoffs crank up.  Since we're using DRPM, it should be noted that Nene sits at 7th right now.  Brewer is also a plus defender.  

 

Using some more RPM, Ryan Anderson sits at 16th for PF's while Ibaka is at 25th.  Anderson ranks 5th in ORPM vs. Ibaka's 24th.   Here is the most important number: 

 

Montrezl Harrell: ORPM 0.17 (22nd) and DRPM -.13 (compared to Ibaka's +.74).

 

Look, we all know I hate these numbers.  There is no arguing that Ibaka upgrades our team in a vacuum, on paper, etc.  However, when we start talking long-term (including the impression that making the WCF makes) I think we are far better off playing this season out (and still likely making the WCF) while developing our young guys and maintaining team harmony.  We can tinker with the roster (i.e. move Brewer) this Summer.

 

This team is capable of doing everything it needs to succeed as it is currently constructed.  Mortgaging part of the future for a marginal upgrade is not a move I like.


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