By: Rahat Huq
- I maintain still that Dwight Howard isn't going anywhere. The Rockets will make inquiries and test the market. And they've likely told the big man that they won't be offering him the max this summer, and that he and his agent are free to test the market now and contact suitors to see if anyone else might be more willing. He'll get a harsh dose of reality when finding he just isn't worth any more than about $20 million a year (oh, the horror!). And then, the Rockets won't be in any rush to make a deal for any of the garbage offers that seem to be on the table.
- Now none of this means that Howard will be back with the team next October. He could fly the coop this summer and sign somewhere else for about the same money, but with maybe a better chance for winning, or a better chance of being loved. The point here is that Houston won't be rushed into making a deal where they get back nothing of value when they know no one else will offer Howard more money than the amount they are willing to give.
- The caveat here is if, moreso than the money, Howard just simply hates playing with James Harden. And who could blame him? We've all played pickup with the immensely talented guy who monopolizes the ball, and gives lesser than desired effort at the other end. You can never really say anything to him because him shooting is by far the best chance for your team to win - but no one wants to play with him. You'd much rather play with the guy who isn't as good, but spreads it around and lets everyone be a part of the offense. Playing with that guy in turn makes you play harder, and as a sum, makes the whole team better. Everyone reading this right now has an image of that guy, unless you are that guy, and in that case, reflect and seek reformation.
- Dan Fegan's return to the news with the recent Dwight Howard speculation brings to mind the many words I penned over the course of the past few years in ranting about fiduciary duties and ethics. The agent power game in the NBA is a curious one, where a not insignificant percentage of a player's salary (the range of 2%) is doled over in turn for representation that, in the era of scaled contracts, really isn't necessary. Where really is the benefit to Howard in having Fegan, the latter of whom is able to parlay the power from pulling the strings on a client like Howard into a favorable situation for lesser clients like Chandler Parsons? The whole thing is really an absurd construct where the guys at the top are paying for the guys at the bottom, unknowingly, and, it could be argued, against their interests. It's just a dirty business.
- The name I've tossed around that makes sense, but which hasn't been linked in any official "rumors", is Kevin Love and the Cavaliers. To desire Dwight Howard, a team must a) not already have a center and b) either already be a contender or feel that it is on the brink of relevance. Factor 'A' is what precludes all of the major contenders in the West, and factor 'B' is why teams like Boston, Charlotte, and Washington have been linked. Those latter East teams feel they have a chance to break through in the wide-open East and, if not getting all the way to the Finals, at the least advancing deeper in the postseason (and being able to sell more season tickets for 2017). Charlotte and Washington have crap to offer, and in the case of Boston, why trade valuable young pieces like Avery Bradley, Crowder, or Marcus Smart, when you can probably just sign Howard outright in the summer if you choose? The distinction with Cleveland is that they're on a timeline, and that they may need to trade Love anyway. Aside from the fact that Trevor Ariza isn't really even good anymore defensively (shhhh! let's keep that secret to ourselves at least for another week), a Love/Mozgov for Howard/Ariza trade makes so much sense for both sides that I don't know how it hasn't yet happened. Cleveland, at this point, has little use for either player, favoring lineups with Tristan Thompson as the primary big. The Cavs also are right there on the cusp, without the benefit of time; they can't waste a single year of what's left of Lebron's prime. Howard would fortify their defense in a way Thompson can't, with Ariza (in theory, if they aren't watching and going on reputation) would be one more long-armed perimeter defender to throw at the Warriors. For the Rockets, getting back Love would represent maximum return on Howard's value, and some hope of synergy with James Harden's abilities. There is of course the obvious question: if the Cavs were to deem Love unplayable, why would Houston build their team from a similar starting point of fatal flaw? As I wrote last week, maybe just building the best team you can, and hanging around--especially with a superstar as young as Harden--is the best course of action? When I tweeted the suggestion of a Love trade earlier, several of you responded emphatically that it would be "idiotic" to deal away the team's two best defenders for a terrible one. That sentiment is awfully short-sighted and entirely misses the point. Dealing Howard represents a capitulation on the season altogether; such a deal wouldn't be made with title hopes for 2016 in mind. That ship, in this case, would've sailed. Such a deal would represent a hope for recoupment of value and an attempt to set a foundation for the next era.
- Having said the above, I maintain the belief that Howard will be a Houston Rocket come February 19th.
