5 replies to this topic

[majik19]

You have to have ESPN Insider to see this article: http://insider.espn....st-role-players

 

But just to capture the gist of it - no Rockets role player is in the top 10 and our role players have posted -0.45 WARP in the playoffs (compared to 3.53 and 3.42 for the Cavaliers and Warriors respectively). Yes, negative.

 

Ariza leads the Rockets with 0.65 and Capela is second with 0.58. As another comparison, Al Faruq Aminu posted .84 WARP... in 5 games. 

 

I think the article really shows two things - how much we rely on Harden (hence why he should have been MVP) and that our bench and role players are not as good as we think they are. Or, if I go by the eye test, our role players are so inconsistent that they mix good games and bad games until they point that they even out at around 0 WARP. 

 

So Morey has work to do to fill out the edges of the roster. We all knew about point guard, and maybe power forward, but maybe we're all guilty of overrating Brewer's and Smith's impact? 

[thejohnnygold]

It's true to a certain degree.  However, we must remember that missing Beverley and D-Mo skews everything.  D-Mo would no doubt be in that top 10.  Having Bev back would put Terry back in his proper role.  Trevor Ariza leads the entire league in minutes played in the playoffs.  We all know he wears out and suffers offensively when he plays too many minutes.  Considering what he is trying to do defensively I'm fine with that.  He's still shooting 37.6% from deep while playing 3 different positions and trying to corral some of the best players the planet has ever seen.  Brewer is playing exactly as advertised--wild and unpredictable.  When all those crazy shots fall in it's amazing....the rest of the time he looks like he's auditioning for the Josh Smith All-Star Squad....which leads us to Josh Smith.

 

For all the rumbling about Smith's 6 turnovers in the last game (not all of which were bad passes/plays), he has played pretty well this post-season.  He's shooting 39% from deep and 45% overall.  He's only playing 23 mpg, but his per36 numbers are rock solid:

 

21 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 1.4 blocks, and 3.6 turnovers with a usg% of 27.6 is pretty darn good even with the turnovers.  Oh, and he has spent the playoffs trying to deal with the likes of Dirk, Blake, and now Draymond.  I like Terrence Jones, but he truly is a defensive liability.  I don't get why he doesn't get it, but it's undeniable that the drop off from Smith to him is drastic.

 

Jones reminds me a bit of Henry Melton.  He's a former Longhorn running back who came in a robust 6' 3" and 260+ pounds of muscle with great feet and speed.  He was meant to be the next Jerome Bettis.  The problem was he wanted to be Barry Sanders.  Rather than hit the line full speed and use his size to crush defenders he tried to dance around too much.  Eventually the coaches gave up and moved him to defensive end where he now plays in the pros.  My point is that Jones plays with too much finesse and seems to completely ignore that solid base he has.  He looks like he's got a solid, Chuck-Hayes-Style lower base; yet, he can't seem to hold defensive position at all.

 

I was against trading Jones, but not anymore.  I'm not sure he can get past this mental block anymore than Henry Melton could learn to run over people instead of trying to run around them.  Terrence Jones has every bit as much talent as Draymond Green--the difference is Green maximizes his talents while Jones has yet to figure them out.  I don't think it would be a stretch to say 4 years playing for Tom Izzo versus 2 years under Calipari can make all the difference.

 

I've kind of rambled around and not answered the question.  Brewer and Smith absolutely are good role players.  Defensively, they bring a lot to the table and offensively they are capable of making big contributions, but neither should be a #1 option--ever.  If Smith is running the offense it should be from the elbow.  Brewer should be making cuts to the basket all the time.  Once again, if we had D-Mo this all looks different.  His size, defense, shooting inside and out, plus his passing are all sorely missed.  I'm looking forward to him having a huge season next year.  He's going to be even better than he already is now--which is scary for the rest of the league and bodes well for us.

 

As for upgrading the roster.  I have no doubt Morey will sniff around quite a bit.  I'm just not sure anything HUGE is out there for us.  I know people will want to say Aldridge, Dragic, and every other big name, but I will be amazed if any of that happens.  I think we all know it is more likely that Jeremy Lin is a Rocket next season than just about anyone else.  We don't have a ton of wiggle room, but I have no doubt Morey will make things happen and improve on what is already an incredibly good team.

[majik19]

funny you mention Henry Melton... since he ended up as a defensive lineman. 

 

I'm not saying WARP is the end-all be-all for measuring role player impact, but it is telling that even the Cavaliers' role players have outplayed ours. I feel like our role players are much better than Cleveland's, but it's not showing up in the stats. 

 

Is that somehow indicating that Lebron is better at raising the level of his team than Harden is? Does Lebron somehow bring out more consistent effort in his team (funny, since his teams have been known to coast). Or is it simply that he does have better role players? 

 

As far as what to do this offseason, I've kind of fallen for the idea of trading for Ty Lawson. I think he would be great for our transition game, he's a decent-to-good spot up shooter, and he drives a ton (taking some pressure off Harden). He's also an above average defender. Basically any trade starting with Papanikolau and Brewer works salary-wise for Lawson (depending on whatever Denver wants). 

[Cooper]

Ariza has been very good. Smith and brewer are either great or nearly unplayable but that's not a surprise or anything. Terry and prigs are playing way too much but that's just the way it has to be. I think LeBron clearly makes the Cavs role players better just not exactly sure how and there isn't really anyone else in the league that appears to ahve that Much of an impact
We really just need a new starter at guard, and a full recovery for Dmo. Wouldn't mind lawson good shooter, can get to the basket, very good passer but he can't guard anyone besides gambling for steals.

[Jatman20]

I don't believe Morey was set on this team as a whole. Many of the roster this year we're stop gaps; such as the Texans QB position. As there contracts are mostly short term in nature. Chasing D12 in free agency occupied time and money preventing the Rockets from finding true outside shooters (such as Korver) to fit our system. Then Morey chased Melo and Bosh creating much of the same situation......Rockets were fortunate Ariza was eyeing the situation as a possible means to getting back with Houston or going to Dallas (Good money in a no state tax area). Brewer and Josh saved our season due to injuries....but their career 3 point shooting averages have been poor. IMHO Parsons play making ability was over-rated.....it didn't help us beat the Blazers.

I have seen reports of Sergio Llull wanting to come to the NBA.....as well as Alessandro Gentile and Marko Todorovic. In March a report the Rockets were willing to offer $17 million over 3 years with a $4.5 mil buyout sounds good......Rockets were willing to offer Dragic a max of probably $14 mil a year if they obtained him from a trade with the Suns. Harden reports he wants another play maker in the back court, in exit interview....there stands Llull.
Looking at video footage of all three gentlemen.....looks to me like Llull and Gentile are ready for the NBA and would fit with the Rockets system.
Papanikoula appeared in a game in garbage time during the GSW series....looks like he has gained about 20 pounds during the season. Not sure the Rockets pick up his team option (traded if possible). TJ is afraid to shoot the 3 (D-Mo can post up and play duo positions of C/PF). D-Mo fans have convinced me that D-Mo is the one we should keep.

Team may lose: TJ and Papa Nick Johnson can be traded. JSmoove leaves for more money.....as does Bev (Parsons is recruiting him to go to Dallas)....Prigi goes back to Europe. Terry moves to another team.

Team adds: Llull, Gentile and Drafts J Grant or D Wright and someone like Christian Wood at #33. Keep Brewer and McDaniels for intangibles.

PG] Llull/ Grant or Wright SG] Harden/McDaniels SF] Ariza/Brewer/Gentile PF] D-Mo/Capela/Pick#33 C] D-12/D-Mo

It's too difficult to win a title with the poor free throw shooting of both D12 and Smith if the league doesn't change the rule....Smith odd man out.
All though I'm open to trading D-12.....that money could buy a lot of talent for this team. Another name I like is Rozier (from the videos I have seen on him, he looks to have a lot of street ball in him). As long as he doesn't get calls for carries or traveling.....he could dazzle.

Edited by Jatman20, 31 May 2015 - 04:19 PM.

[Losthief]

Llull said he is probably staying in europe recently iirc.

Edited by Losthief, 31 May 2015 - 04:27 PM.