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@  jorgeaam : (25 April 2015 - 10:46 PM) Jason Terry said he'll wear all black before Game 4 on Sunday to prepare for the Mavs' funeral in the postseason.
@  txtdo1411 : (25 April 2015 - 03:06 PM) Carlisle is really getting desperate with his complaints. On the other hand, it's nice to be called a physical team again!
@  jorgeaam : (25 April 2015 - 01:50 AM) Get your brooms ready guys
@  jorgeaam : (25 April 2015 - 01:50 AM) 3-0!!!!!
@  jorgeaam : (25 April 2015 - 01:45 AM) Hardeeeeeen
@  jorgeaam : (25 April 2015 - 01:22 AM) It seems the Rockets had been missing Hack-a-someone FT on the regular season so they'd get 2 more points on the playoffs, they don't miss
@  jorgeaam : (24 April 2015 - 10:14 PM) http://bleacherrepor...op-james-harden
@  jorgeaam : (24 April 2015 - 10:14 PM) Wow, Vinny del Negro just showed why he isn't coaching on the NBA anymore
@  jorgeaam : (24 April 2015 - 09:51 PM) Saw that live, good thing he didn't win DPOY
@  Mario Peña : (24 April 2015 - 06:02 PM) Flop of the post season award so far goes to Draymond Green! http://probasketball...ter-flop-video/
@  jorgeaam : (23 April 2015 - 01:09 AM) They waved the white flag. Probably became too scared after watching Smoove and Howard tearing it up last night
@  cointurtlemoose : (23 April 2015 - 12:20 AM) Wow, the Mavs basically just imploded within the last 24 hours........
@  Mario Peña : (22 April 2015 - 11:50 PM) Eventful day in the NBA.
@  jorgeaam : (22 April 2015 - 08:41 PM) No Parsons for rest of playoffs either
@  JY86er : (22 April 2015 - 08:09 PM) ...and speaking of backs. Looks like Rondo is done after "injuring" his back (sitting on the bench).
@  YaoMan : (22 April 2015 - 08:07 PM) Brooks just got fired from OKC...
@  cointurtlemoose : (22 April 2015 - 05:29 PM) Can confirm the back-chair thing
@  YaoMan : (22 April 2015 - 04:16 PM) Yeah JG, I have recurring back spasms and the worst thing is to sit in a chair all day...Back pain is no joke...
@  thejohnnygold : (22 April 2015 - 03:17 PM) My guess is because back surgery is unpleasant and shortly after said surgery sitting in tiny little plastic chairs for hours does not feel good nor promote healing. Let's not jump to negative conclusions too quickly, eh?
@  JerryFinn : (22 April 2015 - 02:56 PM) Can someone answer why D-Mo doesnt sit on the bench cheering for the team?
That's the only negative impression from this playoffs so far)

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2nd seed or 3rd seed

Grizzlies Playoffs 2nd Seed 3rd Seed Tiebreakers Standings

50 replies to this topic

#1 Willk

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    Posted 24 February 2015 - 08:35 AM

    Obviously it would be great if the Rockets can leapfrog Memphis and finish with the #2 seed, however I am curious as to who everybody is rooting for on a nightly basis. Recently Memphis played Portland and last night Memphis played the Clippers. I was conflicted as to who I should root for. Initially, I was cheering for Portland/ LA, but by the end of the game I was cheering for Memphis. I started to feel the Rockets need a bit of cushion between them and the teams chasing them for the 3rd seed before setting sights on the 2nd seed. Does anybody else feel this way? Who will other Rockets fans be cheering for on Friday when the Clippers play Memphis? Just curious....


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    #2 Sir Thursday

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    Posted 24 February 2015 - 02:42 PM

    I think I'm in the same boat as you - the way things currently stand I would much prefer the Rockets to be in the 2/3/6/7 bracket than in the 1/4/5/8 section. Teams we would ideally avoid for as long as possible are (in this order):

     

    1. Warriors - obviously

    2. Thunder - they look scary post-trade and generally aren't a team you want to face come playoff time.

    3. Clippers - we have a long-standing inability to beat these guys

    4. Blazers - their combination of size and outside shooting scares me.

     

    As things stand at the moment, the way you avoid these teams is by getting either the 2nd or 3rd seed. Warriors are likely to get the #1 spot and the #3/4/5 seeds will probably be shared between us, the Blazers and Clippers. So by getting the 3rd spot we avoid both of those two. At the moment the Thunder are riding in 8th so we would miss them too (although they may catch the Spurs the way they are going). Getting into 3rd is therefore, IMO, more important than catching the Grizzlies for 2nd so I will probably be cheering for whoever is playing against the chasing pack. That means as few wins as possible for Portland, LA Clippers and Dallas.

     

    ST


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    #3 timetodienow1234567

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    Posted 24 February 2015 - 06:12 PM

    I think the Grizz are scarier than anyone.
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    Why so Serious? :D


    #4 thejohnnygold

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    Posted 24 February 2015 - 06:37 PM

    114886-112801.png

     

    It's a good question.  At this point I have resigned myself to the reality that there is nowhere to hide.  If you are hoping for a first round match-up with Dallas or San Antonio you know the West is tough.

     

    As much as it pains me to say, Dallas will not be anything close to a cakewalk.  Ellis is having a solid year and can go off any time.  Dirk is Dirk.  Parsons is Parsons.  Chandler is Chandler.  With Stoudemire, they get Kevin Garnett 2.0 to pair with Rondo.  What I mean by that is he is one of the best elbow shooters in the league.  Garnett and Rondo killed teams with that set play over and over and over.  Now, they have a guy who can re-create that for them.  At first, I didn't like the Stoudemire signing for Dallas, until I put that together--then it made more sense.

     

    Add in Carlisle and a bench full of capable (on paper it's a bit underwhelming) vets and I am not licking my chops to face them in the playoffs.

     

    The Spurs.  The Clippers.  The Blazers.  The Thunder.  Ugh...it's starting to feel like we need this guy to take the helm if we are going to stand a chance...

     

    3570620_12282809_lz.jpg


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    #5 Cooper

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      Posted 24 February 2015 - 07:49 PM

      I think the grizz are going to end up closer to the one seed than the 3-4-5 mix they are really rolling lately.

      Good thing about a mavs matchup is even though carlisle is a great coach and they will get buckets, they just don't have anyone that can check harden and if Dmo/Howard can draw a few quick fouls on chandler its a layup line. 


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      #6 cointurtlemoose

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        Posted 24 February 2015 - 08:04 PM

        I really don't see us getting to the 2nd seed and overtaking Memphis... Good thing, cause I think OKC will probably end up in that 7 spot. A Thunder-Grizzlies first round matchup, holy crap... the West is weird.

         

        And If I had to pick our matchup, I'd pick either Dallas, SA, or Portland, in that order. But my prediction in this:

         

        1v8 - Warriors v Spurs

        2v7 - Grizzles v Thunder

        3v6 - Houston v Dallas

        4v5 - Blazers v Clippers

         

        With good chances that both we could end up in the 4 spot, and/or that OKC could go up to the 6 (a lot depends on Durant's health though).


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        #7 King's Gambit Accepted

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          Posted 25 February 2015 - 07:39 AM

          no matter who we get our only chance is to get hot from 3pt...


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          #8 thejohnnygold

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          Posted 25 February 2015 - 02:58 PM

          no matter who we get our only chance is to get hot from 3pt...

           

          I disagree.  Obviously, we need to make some shots to win, but we have shown an ability to lock down on defense to win a game.  Opposing teams are going to try and shut the paint down, force us into shooting contested threes and hope we don't make them.  How the coaches and players handle that will determine our fate.

           

          On average, we take roughly the same number of threes per game in Wins and Losses (33.9 in wins and 33.3 in losses).  The difference is we make 2.3 more per game in Wins.  That is a difference of 30.3% shooting in Losses and 36.6% in Wins.  Another way of putting it is roughly 7 points per game.

           

          The point is I don't think we need to shoot lights out.  We need to shoot around 36% and I think we'll be fine.  Our defense concerns me more than our offense, but we've got some major upgrades in that department so we should be fine.


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          #9 bob schmidt

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          Posted 25 February 2015 - 06:26 PM

          The Rockets can be just as scary as anyone as an opponent in the playoffs. One area that has been our downfall with some of these teams has to do with fouls. While we can't pick our preferred referees, we can possibly protect Harden and D-MO at the beginning of the games to see how the refs are calling the game. In other words, we need controlled aggression so that our key players can put in their needed minutes.

           

          I hope that McHale approaches each series, and game as a chess match. The game with the Raptors was a great example of winning the mental game of BB. Beverly totally psyched out Lowrey with his annoying style of defense. Eventually, the Raptors played into our hands with their frustration. We have to keep our key players on the court, regardless, in order to win.

           

          One other point that I consider important is that McHale play more of the rotation players this year. You cannot win 7 game series against playoff caliber competition with worn-out players. We have a lot of talent on our roster, and it's going to require more than a basic 7 or 8 man rotation. Fresh legs and team enthusiasm can mean a heck of a lot when we get to that part of the year.


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          #10 TTrainW

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            Posted 08 March 2015 - 09:29 AM

            With the win against the Nuggets and both the Grizzlies and Blazers losing today, we're back in the 3rd spot and looking at a 2nd spot by 1.5 games. Also, it looks like Dallas is losing their hold on that 6th seed with the Spurs (in a 4 game winning streak) in hot pursuit. If all goes to plan, we can perhaps end up with the 2nd spot facing Dallas in a first round series, and then find ourselves with home court advantage against either the Spurs or Grizzlies (assuming we come out on top against Dallas). What do you guys think of the odds of this happening? 

             

            Our next 5 games are against the Blazers, Jazz, Clippers, Magic and Nuggets. 

            The Grizzlies face the Bulls, Celtics, Wizards, Bucks and Nuggets. 


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            #11 cointurtlemoose

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              Posted 08 March 2015 - 04:58 PM

              Well that next 5 seems to favor them, but looking through the end of the season, I would say we definitely have the easier schedule. Idk, I'd maybe give it a 40% chance that we finish at the 2.

               

              And yeah, like you said, Dallas probably won't even hold the 6th, the way things are looking. I wonder if there's a chance they'd slide down to the 8th once OKC gets Durant back? And just the fact that there may be a Warriors-Thunder first round matchup is truly bizarre; that may as well be a WCF matchup.


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              #12 redfaithful

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              Posted 09 March 2015 - 09:31 AM

              @TTW according to this page, Grizzlies remaining schedule is significantly tougher, but IMHO it depends more on how each of the two team plays from here on than opponents. Grizzlies look a bit vulnerable right now but Rockets will need to insert DH to the lineup and shake the rotation a bit, so it's a very close call.


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              #13 TTrainW

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                Posted 10 March 2015 - 09:18 AM

                @redfaithful I see. Well the Grizzlies just pulled off a win against an injury riddled Chicago team today, so they've got slight lead on us in that 2nd seed. I'm confident that a DH insertion won't be the cause of any loss we face down this last stretch of games, so I think we're looking at mostly how the Grizzlies play. We do face some strong competition in the Blazers and Clippers, but they have injuries of their own to deal with (Portland of course Wes Matthews, Clips still sans Griffin and Crawford), so I like our chances.

                 

                One thing we don't need is Dallas suddenly finding their touch again and winning games to make this 6,7 seed thing complicated. Then again Dallas winning could also stop the Thunder from entering the 6-7 range, thus preventing them from meeting the Rockets prior to the Western Conference Finals (and ensuring the godly 1-8 matchup). In the end, I prefer we face Dallas in the first round, but eventually, we're going to have to accept the challenge of the Spurs, Warriors and Thunder of the western conference. 


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                #14 isaacjunk

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                  Posted 10 March 2015 - 12:24 PM

                  Put it another way---which teams, if any, would the Rockets be vegas favorites to win against in the first round?  My guess, right now, would be:

                   

                  - Dallas

                  - Portland

                  - SA


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                  #15 thenit

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                    Posted 10 March 2015 - 09:52 PM

                    I still think we be the underdog against SA. 


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                    #16 Sir Thursday

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                    Posted 17 March 2015 - 03:06 PM

                    It's a lot more complicated now that Dallas, San Antonio and the Clippers are all on basically the same record. There's no way to determine who the Rockets will end up playing at the moment, so we should probably be pushing hard for the 2nd seed. This will mean we get whoever shakes out as the weakest of those three teams at the end of the regular season, which is probably the right call. Although they've looked good the last couple of games...

                     

                    ST


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                    #17 cointurtlemoose

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                      Posted 17 March 2015 - 04:57 PM

                      ^I agree, now that OKC has lost its chances for anything other than the 8 seed, I would love to see us catch the 2.

                       

                      http://hangtime.blog...r-playoff-spot/

                       

                      According to that, Memphis has the second hardest schedule from here to the end. Encouraging? Maybe, but the gap even between us (at the bottom) and them (at the top) isn't really that much.


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                      #18 majik19

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                        Posted 17 March 2015 - 08:33 PM

                        Other than Golden State and OKC, I don't care who we play in the 1st round. It's going to be a slugfest anyway. 

                         

                        You have to hope for the 2, because the only thing that is certain is then you avoid Golden State for as long as possible. But no matter what, we'll probably have to go through them to a championship. 

                         

                        I feel like if we played say, the Cavaliers or the Hawks in the 1st round, we could win. But I think, even if we somehow made it alive out of the West, they're going to be well rested while we'll be dead. Basically,  I think the Eastern Conference champion is going to win the Finals, not because they're the best team, but because the West will be such a slugfest. (Cue Charles Barkley - the best team always wins a 7 game series). 


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                        #19 Jatman20

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                          Posted 17 March 2015 - 10:41 PM

                          Depends on where the Mavericks stand.....Amare has them motivated right now, taking the ball out of Rondos hands and back into Montas.....but Rondo will explode on the bench come playoff time; which should emplode that team. Chemistry!!
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                          #20 Losthief

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                          Posted 18 March 2015 - 02:51 AM

                          I really don't get the whole avoid argument.

                           

                          At best the sole reason for avoiding a higher seed that holds water as an argument to me is hoping they get knocked off by another team. If the result of that is OKC (healthy) instead of GSW then....well....I don't see how this is such a huge advantage (this year). That said, in other years/conferences I can see the benefit allowed here.

                           

                          Further, playing the role of devil's advocate I actually propose the opposite might be more desirable, or at least equally desirable this year. I think we all agree that later in the playoffs players will be more tired, both physically and mentally. Players who are tired recover naturally better at home than on the road. Thus, playing a tougher opponent who you have to face on the road more often than at home (read a seed higher than your own) should be desired earlier in the playoffs rather than later.*

                           

                          By playing them earlier you provide the best opportunity to beat them because it reduces the advantage of home court rest on exhausted/strained players. All this said, I actually think the most productive route for us this playoff race would be a 4 seed. We get home court in the first round, and we get a round (plus whatever at the end of the season) to reincorporate Howard effectively. Then, we would face the most dangerous remaining opponent we have before we wear down too much to beat them on the road, and still have the opportunity (1st round) for them to lose and us gain 2nd round home court advantage. <----Now if you think Memphis is the more dangerous team for us (possible) then a 2/3 seed is desirable.

                           

                          On a macro level you can see this easier in a larger tournament like march madness. If someone defeats a 1 seed in a upset, lets say a 8/9 seed in the 2nd round (no 16 seeds never win...so i'm ignoring the possibility...) they now have a easier path to the finals than the 2/3 seeds in the same bracket by virtue of inheriting the 1 seeds path. 

                           

                          However I think the application of this is minimal in the NBA due to only having 4 rounds (including finals), thus you face the 2/3 seed after facing the 1 seed. And the argument can be made if you get the 2 seed (and two rounds of homecourt) it is better. But I would say getting the 3rd seed is actually worse than getting the 4th seed. But, honestly i think it doesn't matter this year, but I really think the argument of avoiding a tough higher seed till later in the playoffs is not a better outcome at the very least.

                           

                          *caveats to this being health, both of returning players and potentially lost players. But as that is a unpredictable variable it can hardly be used as a reason to avoid this as a general rule. Also, in our particular case this year I would argue Howard's best days/performances are likely to come closer to the beginning of the playoffs than the end due to solution to his injury is rest.


                          Edited by Losthief, 18 March 2015 - 02:53 AM.

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