25 replies to this topic

[Red94]

New post: The Red94 Podcast: On Dwight's injury
By: Rahat Huq

 

[thejohnnygold]

I agree that we will just have to sit back and relax regarding Dwight's health.  There is nothing we can do to help the situation except not panic, overreact, or let the ghosts of injuries past lead us by the nose off a cliff of despair.  I agree that Jones, Smith, Motie, Dorsey, and some Papanikoloau can do enough to get us to the end of the season and ready for the playoffs.  From there, who knows how things will look as other teams will likely have their own injury issues.

 

Now, as far as the salary cap concerns go I do not share your same perspective.  I agree that Dwight is opting in.  I disagree that this kills the Durant dream.  I feel this way mostly because I do not think Durant is "the dream" that we are after.

 

People overstate the need for an additional playmaker next to Harden and want to give away all of our players and draft picks to get one.  I have always stood against this because the price was too high.  Now, if we take a look at 2015's free agents there are a couple of players who stand out and, I believe, can fit under the cap without us having to trade/lose key players.

 

First, I will preface this by finishing the Durant thought.  I know everyone loves and wants Durant.  I think at best we are third on his list of preferred teams (OKC, WAS, and then HOU).  Both of those teams are primed to make him an offer and surround him with talent.  Thus, putting all of our eggs in that basket would most likely wind up with another "Summer of Failure" and, while I believe there is enough self-loathing in the Rockets' fan base to support that, I do not think it is what we want to do.

 

Instead, we should set our sights directly on Anthony Davis (as I have trumpeted many times before).  Think about it.  Durant will be turning 28 that season, will have a ton of miles on those twig-legs of his (reg. season, playoffs, USA team), and (I predict) will still have zero championships won.  Would you rather put your eggs in that basket (taking into consideration he is not likely to choose us), or.....

 

....Would you rather pay a max salary to a 7'-two-way stud who will be turning 24, currently sports a 31.9 PER (at the age of 21 playing in one of the toughest conference line-ups of all time), sports a +26 net difference between his Ortg and his Drtg while averaging 36 mpg, and averages 24.5 ppg, 10 rpg, and nearly 2 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks, and a measly 1 turnover all with a 26.6 usg rate.  Phew, that's a lot of numbers.  SOURCE.  Just imagine what that is going to look like in 2017 after three years of adding muscle, experience, and skill to his game.  He will be the best player on the planet.

 

So, what does that have to do with now?  It means we can look at getting that PG play-maker and not sweat the cap ramifications because KD doesn't matter to us.  It doesn't seem to get much mention, but there is another PG coming available next season as a FA: Brandon Knight.

 

I think he has buy low potential--especially with all eyes being on Dragic and Rondo.  (Monta Ellis may decide to opt out as well given how well he has been playing.)  He fits Morey's ideal to a "T".  I think we can lock him up to a sub-$10M/year contract and wind up with the steal of free agency.  Here, check out this video from 2013 (with Detroit).

 

 

Tell me that didn't remind you of a former Detroit PG who played back in the 80's.

 

I know most of us love Pat Beverley, but a guy like Knight would be a serious upgrade without committing "star" money.  He seems to play decent defense as well so we don't lose too much on that end.

 

Moral of this story?  Don't sweat Dwight's knees.  We've got Motie and Jones locked in through 2017, Capela in the wings, and an opportunity to steal an up-and-coming, under-the-radar PG in free agency.

[Cooper]

As long as the upgrade at pg is on a tradeable contract (shouldn't be difficult) trading that contract and ariza or another mid salary would put us close and since we aren't a clear favorite to land KD that seems like the logical route if he shows more interest you can make it happen but if not the team is still going to be in position to be a serious contender without KD. Good news is Having Harden lets us be a serious destination for most top FAs even if they miss on KD or the brow and it looks like he's here for the long hall.

[thejohnnygold]

As long as the upgrade at pg is on a tradeable contract (shouldn't be difficult) trading that contract and ariza or another mid salary would put us close and since we aren't a clear favorite to land KD that seems like the logical route if he shows more interest you can make it happen but if not the team is still going to be in position to be a serious contender without KD. Good news is Having Harden lets us be a serious destination for most top FAs even if they miss on KD or the brow and it looks like he's here for the long hall.

 

I'm not sure why this is a necessary thing since I think we will want to keep whatever PG we sign.  We will have sufficient cap space to offer Davis a max AND re-sign whoever we like with Bird Rights down the road.  We don't need to trade anything.  I'm not talking about trading for Davis because that is 100% guaranteed not on the table for New Orleans.  Seriously...who would New Orleans trade AD for right now?

 

Harden definitely helps us remain relevant, but don't discount things like McHale/Olajuwon's appeal to big men.  T-Jones was a teammate of Davis at UK....and Brandon Knight played with T-Jones at UK  .  It's all going to come together beautifully  .  Thanks Calipari!

[Cooper]

I was talking about dumping salary to get kd if he wanted to come. 

[thejohnnygold]

I was talking about dumping salary to get kd if he wanted to come. 

 

Ah, I see now.  Misunderstood that the first time I read it.  Makes total sense and I agree.

[timetodienow1234567]

Davis is locked up for 4-5 more years

[thejohnnygold]

Davis is locked up for 4-5 more years

 

You got a link for that?  Both hoopshype and basketball reference say differently.

[timetodienow1234567]

I thought all rookies are locked in to a deal and then are RFAs. So the shortest amount of time is 6-7 years on a team unless somebody steals them. I don't think the Pelicans will balk at max money for Davis.

[Mario Peña]

Looks like Davis is locked up through next season and that's it. http://www.bourbonst...salary-central/

 

 

I still have hope for Durant and of course you take Davis if you can but I just don't see that situation arising for the Rockets unless I'm missing something (I hope he goes East). But as for Durant I think the Rockets could be in play, there's no way he stays in OKC right?

[timetodienow1234567]

Maybe it's just me but I'm pretty sure he's a RFA that year and NO will match. The only hope is if he wants out badly and takes the QO, but almost nobody does that except Monroe but that's because he wasn't being offered max money.

[jorgeaam]

We should also remember that the cap space is due to a rise in the year in which Davis becomes a RFA, so it's practically impossible that he doesn't get a Max from NO.

 

I'm still wondering if he'd sign with the Rockets given the chance, as he's a Chicago native and would probably go to the Bulls if choice was his (just as we are thinking KD would with Washington).

[thejohnnygold]

Looks like Davis is locked up through next season and that's it. http://www.bourbonst...salary-central/

 

 

I still have hope for Durant and of course you take Davis if you can but I just don't see that situation arising for the Rockets unless I'm missing something (I hope he goes East). But as for Durant I think the Rockets could be in play, there's no way he stays in OKC right?

 

I think there is a chance he stays.  I think he likes the small market (lower profile) environment and he seems to enjoy playing with Westbrook/Ibaka and co.

 

We all read about his thoughts about going home to D.C. and they will have a killer guard duo to tempt him with along with Gortat.  They might be able to trade Webster/Porter for a PF or Nene might still be kicking around.  I am sure, like Miami in the years leading up to LeBron's free agency, they are going to keep the books clear so that they can make the max offer for him.

 

I still have Houston coming in 3rd.  At that point we will have Harden, Howard, Jones, Motie, and Ariza all under contract along with Capella, Canaan, and Johnson (who will have hopefully developed into useful players by then).  In addition, we will have Bird Rights on Brewer, Beverley, and Dorsey (doubtful we re-sign him, but you never know) allowing us to retain quality depth.  That is a heck of a roster to add Kevin Durant to.  Ariza may wind up traded for a PG upgrade if this occurs.

 

Other Pros: Durant likes his alma mater UT and this puts him a comfy 3 hour drive away.  Durant likes Harden.

 

Cons: Howard may be a glorified Kevin Willis at that point.  We will likely be unable to offer a full max deal to him.  Maybe 75% of that (just ball-parking that number).  Still, he is raking in endorsement money and he has never been about that--the guy lives and breathes basketball.

 

Don't get me wrong--if you can get Durant you do it 100 out of 100 times.  All I'm saying is if I were Morey I'd be pushing towards that Anthony Davis deal.  I'm not convinced he is in love with New Orleans.  I do think the opportunity to work with Olajuwon/McHale is a huge draw.  Plus, that allows us to go after a PG now if we want to.

[thejohnnygold]

Maybe it's just me but I'm pretty sure he's a RFA that year and NO will match. The only hope is if he wants out badly and takes the QO, but almost nobody does that except Monroe but that's because he wasn't being offered max money.

 

You could just look it up.  His deal expires at the end of the 2016/2017 season.  That gives New Orleans Bird Rights--they can sign him for an extra year and at a slightly higher per year amount.  It does not mean they can simply match any offer another team makes and trump it the way they can in RFA.

 

He only takes an extension if NO is the place he wants to stay--which why would he?  Their personnel moves have been very suspect and how much closer are they going to be to contending at that time?  There is no way to tell right now because their books are essentially wiped clean that year and the 1st round picks they do have are going to fall in the mid-teens.

 

I'm not saying 100% he is coming here (how could I?).  Golden State will be able to make a heck of an offer.  Only Klay is under contract and they have Bird Rights on nearly everyone else meaning they can max offer Davis and then re-sign everyone else going over the cap.

 

Chicago is another question mark--who knows where they will be.  I have no doubts San Antonio will set themselves up to make a play for him...Miami too.  Seriously, unless he regresses/gets injured he is going to be significantly better by then.  He will be THE player every team covets.

 

Which is why setting ourselves up with UK connections (Jones/Knight), a star guard (Harden), a solid bench, a respected coach and big man mentor, plus the Dream as a personal coach is about as good as you can do to attract him to your team.

 

Bold prediction: Milwaukee keeps Knight and re-signs Middleton giving them a perfect core of Knight, Atentekounmpo, Middleton, and Parker to put around him and he goes there.  Holy cow!!! 

[Mario Peña]

So in between now and the summer of 2017 it looks like johnnygold will have the Davis Dream. Maybe it happens, I remember when johnnygold was dead set on Josh Smith a couple seasons ago and now we have him. Hmmmmmmm...

[thejohnnygold]

So in between now and the summer of 2017 it looks like johnnygold will have the Davis Dream. Maybe it happens, I remember when johnnygold was dead set on Josh Smith a couple seasons ago and now we have him. Hmmmmmmm...

 

Ha, that's true.  I've got all my credibility (what little there is) riding on Smith's shoulders right now.  Don't think I'm not sweating it... 

[timetodienow1234567]

I'm seeing a QO on Davis's contract on hoopshype. If the new CBA didn't change the way rookie deals work, that means the year he has a QO is the year he is an RFA.

Can someone enlighten me if the way rookie deals have worked for the last decade have changed with the new CBA.

[Losthief]

I'm seeing a QO on Davis's contract on hoopshype. If the new CBA didn't change the way rookie deals work, that means the year he has a QO is the year he is an RFA.

Can someone enlighten me if the way rookie deals have worked for the last decade have changed with the new CBA.

Nope your 100 % correct ttd (see below)

 

Davis will be a restricted free agent:

 

Here's his contract:

2012-13: $5,144,280.
2013-14: $5,375,760.
2014-15: $5,607,240 {Team Option}.
2015-16: $7,070,730 {Team Option}.<----fourth year option was already picked up (http://www.nola.com/..._will_pick.html)
2016-17: $9,191,949 {Qualifying Offer}.

 

So assuming they offer him the Qualifying Offer (which is safe to assume)

 

He will be a restricted free agent in 2016-2017 (they will have the right to match):

 

From the nba salary cap faq (i did the bold for clarity on davis' situation):

Restricted free agency exists only on a limited basis. It is allowed following the fourth year of rookie "scale" contracts for first round draft picks (see question number 49). It is also allowed for all veteran free agents who have been in the league three or fewer seasons. However, a first round draft pick becomes an unrestricted free agent following his second or third season if his team does not exercise its option to extend his rookie scale contract for the next season. All other free agency is limited to unrestricted free agency.

 

edit: what the new cba did change is eliminate extensions (essentially) for max-level players. This is because you no longer get the extra year with the extension. So you get more money and bigger raises (and security) if you just wait and sign as a FA even if your re-signing with the home team. The only reason to do extensions anymore is for security/health reasons and for non-max players.

Edited by Losthief, 03 February 2015 - 12:58 AM.

[thejohnnygold]

Yes, all of this is true.  What it misses is the point that I am talking about the free agency period following that year.  In between the 2016-17 season and the 2017-18 season Anthony, presuming he has not signed an extension, will be a full on free agent.  The restricted part only applies to the QO year (between 2015-16 and 2016-17).  In regards to that, yes, in between the Finals and June 30th NO must submit a QO and teams can make offers, but he is restricted.  Once his contract is up in 2018 he is a free agent 100%.

 

NO already extended Anthony to a MAX 5 year rookie deal.  This is why he will make $9M in his fifth year of his rookie contract.  I am almost 100% sure (never 100% when it comes to the CBA) that after that 5th year, barring any other extension, he is a free agent with no restrictions, but NO has the Bird Rights advantage.

 

CBAFAQ (question #44)

 

So, to repeat, he is a restricted free agent heading into the 2016-17 season and a full on free agent after it....which is what I'm talking about.  It's exciting because guess who comes off the books at the same time?  Dwight Howard, Terrence Jones, and D-Mo.  We will have their Bird Rights and can sign Davis to a max and then re-sign them using the Bird Rights.  It will be awesome. 

[cointurtlemoose]

A lot of this is "we'll just have to wait and see" - Dwight's prognosis, Dwight's player option, next year's roster/success...

 

That said, I'm not really surprised. Simply put, big men with 10 full seasons under their belt tend to break down sooner rather than later. The big question is whether Dwight will be able to adjust to the twilight of his career; he would definitely going to have to learn to play differently.

 

But here's my thing: this season, Dwight already has been different. He's not been an offensive force (for the most part). His main role has been holding down our defense. That's most of what 'Twilight Dwight' would have to do anyways. We've all seen DMo's post emergence; his post game and ability to pass out of the post is much better than Dwight's already. It's not like we're losing a post game. 

 

So the way I see it, we've already been getting Twilight Dwight; and we're still the 3/4/5 seed in the West! That's why I'm not too worried.

 

I still think we need another playmaker. It does not have to be a big name! No, Dragic is not happening this season. And the market is kinda thin at this point, so it may have to wait till the offseason.