22 replies to this topic

[Sir Thursday]

It's back! A few games late, but still. As I've done in previous years, I'll separate out the Rockets' opponents into tiers and attempt to use this to estimate their win total for the season. Interesting things to note:

 

• I've added more nuance to the 'Favourite' category because I think there are two separate groups of teams in that bracket this year. Some of them are not pushovers but we should still beat the majority of the time, whereas others are more of a challenge but I would still favour the Rockets.
• I've put OKC down in the 'Underdog' section despite their injury woes - we only play them once before Durant and Westbrook come back.

As usual, I welcome any feedback about where you think opposing teams should go within the tiering system. I'll update this periodically with changes depending on how teams are playing throughout the season.

 

This next section is a good chance to see how well calibrated the system is. 3 wins out of 5 should be doable, getting 4 would be a good result. They can beat up on Philly and Minny at the back-end but need to take one or two against the tougher opponents first.

 

ST

 

 

Current Standings:
 
1. Memphis (4-0)

2. Houston (4-0)

3. Golden State (3-0)

4. Portland (1-2)
5. Sacramento (3-1) 

:

 

Since Last Update:
 

@ LA Lakers (W)

@ Utah (W)

vs Boston (W)

@ Philadelphia (W)

 

Projected Score: 3.7 wins

Actual Score: 4 wins

 

 

Next 5 Games:
 

@ Miami (3-0)

vs San Antonio (1-1)

vs Golden State (3-0)

@ Minnesota (1-2)

vs Philadelphia (0-4)

 

Projected Score: 3.2 wins

 

 

Full Schedule Breakdown:

 

Gimmes (90% wins):

 

Boston x2 (1-0)

LA Lakers x3 (1-0)

Orlando x2

Milwaukee x2

Minnesota x4

Philadelphia x2 (1-0)

Utah x4 (1-0)

 

Current: 4-0

Expected: 17-2

 

Heavy Favourites (80% wins):

 

Brooklyn (x2)

Charlotte (x2)

Detroit (x2)

Denver (x4)

Indiana (x2)

New York (x2)

Sacramento (x3)

 

Current: 0-0

Expected: 14-3

 

 

Favourites (60% wins):

 

Atlanta (x2)

Miami (x2)

New Orleans (x4)

Phoenix (x4)

Toronto (x2)

Washington (x2)

 

Current: 0-0

Expected: 10-6

 

Even (50% wins):

 

Chicago (x2)

Dallas (x4)

Golden State (x4)

Portland (x3)

Memphis (x4)

 

Current: 0-0

Expected: 9-8

 

Underdogs (30% wins):

 

Cleveland (x2)

LA Clippers (x4)

Oklahoma City (x3)

San Antonio (x4)

 

Current: 0-0

Expected: 4-9

 

Predicted Record: 54-28

[timetodienow1234567]

Chicago is even?

[Sir Thursday]

Chicago is even?

 

That's more based on a preseason expectation of where they'd be - I haven't had a chance to watch any of their games yet. Why, were you thinking we should be favourites or underdogs against them?

 

ST

[timetodienow1234567]

Underdogs. I think they're right up there with Cleveland and SA as top echelon teams. I think you should switch them and the Clips.

[txtdo1411]

I always enjoy these. I disagree somewhat on a couple of the teams. The tier system seems more like a power ranking rather than which teams we match-up well/poorly with. 

 

Memphis- I agree that we are "even" with them as we should finish with around the same W-L record. That being said I believe it is a poor match-up for our team, so I would probably put the in the "underdog" tier. Their defensive grind it out style just does not play to our strengths. Last year they gave us fits, and I expect the same this season. Although, with our team seemingly having a more "defensive & rebounding" mindset it could be different this season. 
 

San Antonio- I agree that they are a better team, and will probably finish with a better record. At the same time, we seem to match-up very well with them. They always seem to struggle with read and react athletic teams that don't necessarily have an offensive system in place. The Rockets are the epitome of that type of offense, and I believe the Spurs will struggle to stop us again this year. I would probably put them in the "even" tier even though the are certainly the "better" team. 

 

These are the two that stood out to me the most. The other two I would consider moving to another tier would be Sacramento and Chicago. Sacramento has looked pretty strong in these first few games, and they have a dominant big that can match up with Dwight. I would probably put them in the "favourites" tier. Also Chicago I would probably put in the "underdogs" tier. Their discipline and stifling defense always gives us fits. Also I love the way they are utilizing AB. 

 

All in all a really good write up ST! Much appreciated sir. 

[Sir Thursday]

OK, I've made a few changes to the categories to take into account some of the above feedback and what I've seen so far. I think there are still a few more changes to be made but IMO it's still too early to be able to confirm all the teams' levels yet. What I moved was:

 

Milwaukee: Gimme->Heavy Favourites

Memphis: Even->Underdogs

San Antonio: Underdogs->Even

 

I'm tempted to move Toronto and Sacramento up a bit and Cleveland down slightly, but I'm going to hold off until I've seen a little more before coming to a decision on those.

 

As it stands, we managed to gain one game against our expectations over the past stretch. This seemed low to me, but it goes to show that if you want to get to the mid-50 win range, you have to be winning consistently (and also that our schedule has been pretty forgiving so far).

 

The next stretch of games has a couple of difficult ones in, so going 3-2 would probably be a reasonable outcome. Going to be tough if Howard is out for much longer though...

 

ST

 

 

Current Standings:
 
1. Memphis (12-3)

2. Golden State (12-2)

3=. Portland (12-3)

3=. Houston (12-3)
5. San Antonio (10-4)

6. Dallas (11-5)

7. LA Clippers (9-5)

:

 

Since Last Update:
 

@ Miami (W)

vs San Antonio (W)

vs Golden State (L)

@ Minnesota (W)

vs Philadelphia (W)

@ Oklahoma City (W)

@ Memphis (L)

vs LA Lakers (L)

vs Dallas (W)

vs New York (W)

vs Sacramento (W)

 

Projected Score: 7 wins

Actual Score: 8 wins

 

 

Next 5 Games:
 

vs LA Clippers (9-5)

@ Milwaukee (9-7)

vs Memphis (13-2)

@ Minnesota (3-10)

vs Phoenix (10-6)

 

Projected Score: 2.9 wins

 

 

Full Schedule Breakdown:

 

Gimmes (90% wins):

 

Boston x2 (1-0)

LA Lakers x3 (1-1)

Orlando x2

Minnesota x4 (1-0)

Philadelphia x2 (2-0)

Utah x4 (1-0)

 

Current: 6-1

Expected: 15-2

 

Heavy Favourites (80% wins):

 

Brooklyn x2

Charlotte x2

Detroit x2

Denver x4

Indiana x2

Milwaukee x2

New York x2 (1-0)

Sacramento x3 (1-0)

 

Current: 2-0

Expected: 16-3

 

 

Favourites (60% wins):

 

Atlanta x2

Miami x2 (1-0)

New Orleans x4

Phoenix x4

Toronto x2

Washington x2

 

Current: 1-0

Expected: 11-5

 

Even (50% wins):

 

Chicago x2

Dallas x4 (1-0)

Golden State x4 (0-1)

Portland x3

San Antonio x4 (1-0)

 

Current: 2-1

Expected: 9-8

 

Underdogs (30% wins):

 

Cleveland x2

LA Clippers x4

Memphis x4 (0-1)

Oklahoma City x3 (1-0)

 

Current: 1-1

Expected: 4-9

 

Current Record: 12-3

Predicted Record: 55-27

[Steven]

60 wins. Write it down.

[Willk]

60 wins. Write it down.

If you are right about this, I will never doubt you

[Sir Thursday]

Houston's play over the last five games has been well above expectations given the injury crisis. They gained a whole game over expectations in that period (which is harder to do than it sounds). There's a tricky slate coming up though - it's difficult to pick up all the wins you're supposed to against teams like Denver, Sacramento and New Orleans. They're beatable, but it's tough to do consistently. Plus there's the big game against the Warriors tomorrow...

 

I was tempted to move the Warriors from Even to Underdog, but decided against it - both teams are riding high right now, so it's a battle between equals. So the only change I'm making is:

 

Detroit: Heavy Favourite->Gimme

 

They deserve it.

 

ST

 

Current Standings:
 
1. Golden State (18-2)

2=. Houston (16-4)

2=. Portland (16-4)

2=. Memphis (16-4)
5=. San Antonio (15-5)

5=. LA Clippers (15-5)

:

 

Since Last Update:
 

vs LA Clippers (L)

@ Milwaukee (W)

vs Memphis (W)

@ Minnesota (W)

vs Phoenix (W)

 

Projected Score: 2.9 wins

Actual Score: 4 wins

 

 

Next 5 Games:
 

@ Golden State (18-2)

@ Sacramento (11-10)

vs Denver (9-12)

@ Denver (9-12)

vs New Orleans (9-10)

 

Projected Score: 3.5 wins

 

 

Full Schedule Breakdown:

 

Gimmes (90% wins):

 

Boston x2 (1-0)

Detroit x2

LA Lakers x3 (1-1)

Orlando x2

Minnesota x4 (2-0)

Philadelphia x2 (2-0)

Utah x4 (1-0)

 

Current: 7-1

Expected: 17-2

 

Heavy Favourites (80% wins):

 

Brooklyn x2

Charlotte x2

Denver x4

Indiana x2

Milwaukee x2 (1-0)

New York x2 (1-0)

Sacramento x3 (1-0)

 

Current: 3-0

Expected: 14-3

 

Favourites (60% wins):

 

Atlanta x2

Miami x2 (1-0)

New Orleans x4

Phoenix x4 (1-0)

Toronto x2

Washington x2

 

Current: 2-0

Expected: 11-5

 

Even (50% wins):

 

Chicago x2

Dallas x4 (1-0)

Golden State x4 (0-1)

Portland x3

San Antonio x4 (1-0)

 

Current: 2-1

Expected: 9-8

 

Underdogs (30% wins):

 

Cleveland x2

LA Clippers x4 (0-1)

Memphis x4 (1-1)

Oklahoma City x3 (1-0)

 

Current: 2-2

Expected: 5-8

 

Current Record: 16-4

Predicted Record: 56-26

[redfaithful]

I found myself actually waiting for your take earlier today, thanks ST!

[Sir Thursday]

Sorry it's been so long since I last updated - busy Christmas period. The Rockets had some losses that they need to avoid if they're going to get up to those high 50s win totals everyone's hoping for. There were no gimmes in this period, but there were enough teams they should have beaten that going 6-5 represents a failure to live up to expectations.

 

Very tempted to reduce the team's expected wins against Washington and Atlanta after the losses they delivered to us over the past few weeks and considering their strong recent play. Might do so if they continue to rack up wins against Western Conference opposition and/or the Rockets continue to struggle.

 

Making the following changes in this period (NB: These readjustments negate the failure to live up to expectation over the last 11 games, so the overall prediction remains unchanged):

 

New York: Heavy Favourites -> Gimme

Cleveland: Underdogs -> Even

 

I've also included predictions from ESPN (kind of surprised they still call them Hollinger Odds, but I guess they respect his influence) and basketball-reference.com. Interestingly, both are significantly less positive about the Rockets than I am, presumably because their recent play has not left them with a good points differential...I guess we'll see who's right as the season goes on.

 

ST

 

Current Standings:
 
1. Golden State (25-5)

2. Portland (26-7)

3. Memphis (23-8)

4. Houston (22-9)

5. Dallas (23-10)

6. LA Clippers (22-11)
7. San Antonio (20-14)

8. Phoenix (18-16)

:

 

Since Last Update:

 

 

@ Golden State (L)

@ Sacramento (W)

vs Denver (W)

@ Denver (W)

vs New Orleans (L)

vs Atlanta (L)

vs Portland (W)

@ Memphis (W)

@ San Antonio (L)

vs Washington (L)

vs Charlotte (W)

 

 

Projected Score: 6.8 wins

Actual Score: 6 wins

 

 

Next 5 Games:
 

@ New Orleans (16-16)

vs Miami (14-19)

@ Chicago (23-10)

@ Cleveland (18-14)

@ New York (5-29)

 

Projected Score: 3.3 wins

 

 

Full Schedule Breakdown:

 

Gimmes (90% wins):

 

Boston x2 (1-0)

Detroit x2

LA Lakers x3 (1-1)

Orlando x2

Minnesota x4 (2-0)

New York x2 (1-0)

Philadelphia x2 (2-0)

Utah x4 (1-0)

 

Current: 8-1

Expected: 19-2

 

Heavy Favourites (80% wins):

 

Brooklyn x2

Charlotte x2 (1-0)

Denver x4 (2-0)

Indiana x2

Milwaukee x2 (1-0)

Sacramento x3 (2-0)

 

Current: 6-0

Expected: 13-2

 

Favourites (60% wins):

 

Atlanta x2 (0-1)

Miami x2 (1-0)

New Orleans x4 (0-1)

Phoenix x4 (1-0)

Toronto x2

Washington x2 (0-1)

 

Current: 2-3

Expected: 9-7

 

Even (50% wins):

 

Chicago x2

Cleveland x2

Dallas x4 (1-0)

Golden State x4 (0-2)

Portland x3 (1-0)

San Antonio x4 (1-1)

 

Current: 3-3

Expected: 10-9

 

Underdogs (30% wins):

 

LA Clippers x4 (0-1)

Memphis x4 (2-1)

Oklahoma City x3 (1-0)

 

Current: 3-2

Expected: 5-6

 

Current Record: 22-9

Predicted Record: 56-26

 

Hollinger Playoff Odds: 51-31

Basketball Reference Forecast: 50.4-31.6

Edited by Sir Thursday, 02 January 2015 - 02:42 PM.

[redfaithful]

Any chance for an updated edition soon?

[Sir Thursday]

Sorry, just got back from holiday. Lots to get caught up on! On the basis of what's been going on since the last update, I think there are a couple of adjustments to be made:

 

Golden State: Even -> Underdogs - It's clear that the Warriors are dominating that match-up right now and are deserved favourites when we play them.

Oklahoma City: Underdogs -> Even - Westbrook and Durant still inspire fear, but these guys are not as good as they have been in years past.

Detroit: Gimme -> Heavy Favourites - Given how well the Pistons have been playing recently, they've dragged themselves out of the basement.

 

So with those changes in mind, here's the latest update. Thanks to performing slightly below expectations they've dropped a game since the last update - but nevertheless I'm still several games more optimistic than ESPN or BR. They're going to need to play well to get to 4 wins out of the next group - both Dallas and Chicago will present a challenge. But I think they're still capable of doing so - depends on how well Howard recovers from his ankle sprain of course.

 

ST

 

Current Standings:
 
1. Golden State (35-6)

2. Memphis (31-12)

3. Portland (32-13)

4. Houston (30-14)

5. Dallas (30-14)

6. LA Clippers (29-14)
7. San Antonio (28-17)

8. Phoenix (26-19)

 

Since Last Update:

 

@ New Orleans (L) 

vs Miami (W) 

@ Chicago (L) 

@ Cleveland (W) 

@ New York (W) 

vs Utah (W) 

@ Brooklyn (W) 

@ Orlando (L) 

vs Oklahoma City (W) 

vs Golden State (L) 

vs Indiana (W) 

@ Golden State (L) 

@ Phoenix (W) 

 

Projected Score: 8.2 wins

Actual Score: 8 wins

 

Next 5 Games:

 

@ LA Lakers (16-16)

vs Dallas (14-19)

@ Boston (23-10)

@ Detroit (18-14)

vs Chicago (5-29)

 

Projected Score: 3.6 wins

 

Full Schedule Breakdown:

 

Gimmes (90% wins):

 

Boston x2 (1-0)

LA Lakers x3 (1-1)

Orlando x2 (0-1)

Minnesota x4 (2-0)

New York x2 (2-0)

Philadelphia x2 (2-0)

Utah x4 (2-0)

 

Current: 10-2

Expected: 17-2

 

Heavy Favourites (80% wins):

 

Brooklyn x2 (1-0)

Charlotte x2 (1-0)

Denver x4 (2-0)

Detroit x2

Indiana x2 (1-0)

Milwaukee x2 (1-0)

Sacramento x3 (2-0)

 

Current: 8-0

Expected: 15-2

 

Favourites (60% wins):

 

Atlanta x2 (0-1)

Miami x2 (2-0)

New Orleans x4 (0-2)

Phoenix x4 (2-0)

Toronto x2

Washington x2 (0-1)

 

Current: 4-4

Expected: 9-7

 

Even (50% wins):

 

Chicago x2 (0-1)

Cleveland x2 (1-0)

Dallas x4 (1-0)

Oklahoma City x3 (2-0)

Portland x3 (1-0)

San Antonio x4 (1-1)

 

Current: 6-2

Expected: 11-7

 

Underdogs (30% wins):

 

Golden State x4 (0-4)

LA Clippers x4 (0-1)

Memphis x4 (2-1)

 

Current: 2-6

Expected: 3-9

 

Current Record: 30-14

Predicted Record: 55-27

 

Hollinger Playoff Odds: 53-29

Basketball Reference Forecast: 51.8-30.2

[timetodienow1234567]

Atlanta should be even at least

[Sir Thursday]

Atlanta should be even at least

 

You're right - I don't know how I missed that and didn't update it. Will fix it on the next post.

[Sir Thursday]

OK, All Star update edition. Rockets just about managed to keep up with expectations over the last period, although it would have been nice to win another game towards the end there to really cement things. The coming stretch looks like it should be easy enough to stay afloat - beat the Wolves and Nets and they only have to take one of the three tougher games (Mavs, Raptors, Clippers) to get near the 3.1 win prediction. With good play though, the Rockets might be able to sniff 4 wins out of 5 here. 

 

This metric is still more optimistic than either ESPN/Hollinger or Basketball Reference both of which predict that the Rockets will end up with the 5 seed. They're slowly trending upwards though - I'm sure they'll come to the right conclusion soon enough!

 

In this update there's only one move (and it's one I should have made a while ago):

 

Atlanta: Favourites->Even. The Hawks are playing great basketball, but I just can't bring myself to put the Rockets as underdogs.

 

Current Standings:

 

 
1. Golden State (42-9)

2. Memphis (39-14)

3=. Portland (36-17)

3=. Houston (36-17)

5. Dallas (36-19)

6. LA Clippers (35-19)
7. San Antonio (34-19)

8. Phoenix (29-25)

 

Since Last Update:

 

@ LA Lakers (W)

vs Dallas (W)

@ Boston (W)

@ Detroit (L)

vs Chicago (W)

vs Milwaukee (W)

vs Portland (L)

@ Phoenix (W)

@ LA Clippers (L)

 

Projected Score: 6.2 wins

Actual Score: 6 wins

 

Next 5 Games:

 

@ Dallas (36-19)

vs Toronto (36-17)

vs Minnesota (11-42)

vs LA Clippers (35-19)

vs Brooklyn (21-31)

 

Projected Score: 3.1 wins

 

Full Schedule Breakdown:

 

Gimmes (90% wins):

 

Boston x2 (2-0)

LA Lakers x3 (2-1)

Orlando x2 (0-1)

Minnesota x4 (2-0)

New York x2 (2-0)

Philadelphia x2 (2-0)

Utah x4 (2-0)

 

Current: 12-2

Expected: 17-2

 

Heavy Favourites (80% wins):

 

Brooklyn x2 (1-0)

Charlotte x2 (1-0)

Denver x4 (2-0)

Detroit x2 (0-1)

Indiana x2 (1-0)

Milwaukee x2 (2-0)

Sacramento x3 (2-0)

 

Current: 9-1

Expected: 15-2

 

Favourites (60% wins):

 

Miami x2 (2-0)

New Orleans x4 (0-2)

Phoenix x4 (3-0)

Toronto x2

Washington x2 (0-1)

 

Current: 5-3

Expected: 9-5

 

Even (50% wins):

 

Atlanta x2 (0-1)

Chicago x2 (1-1)

Cleveland x2 (1-0)

Dallas x4 (2-0)

Oklahoma City x3 (2-0)

Portland x3 (1-1)

San Antonio x4 (1-1)

 

Current: 8-4

Expected: 12-8

 

Underdogs (30% wins):

 

Golden State x4 (0-4)

LA Clippers x4 (0-2)

Memphis x4 (2-1)

 

Current: 2-7

Expected: 2-10

 

Current Record: 36-17

Predicted Record: 55-27

 

Hollinger Playoff Odds: 52-30

Basketball Reference Forecast: 52.7-29.3

[nlin5]

Anyone still thinking about the Clippers game right before the All Star break, I found an article that talked about what went wrong and how Moreyball can correct them

 

https://donatasmotie....wordpress.com/

[redfaithful]

Hollinger Playoff Odds: 54-28

 

And climbing...

[redfaithful]

Took the liberty to count the remaining games. Moved Utah to 80%, they deserve it or even better. Bottom line is still 55-27.

 

90%: Orlando, Minnesota (2-0)

 

80%: Denver, Indiana, Charlotte, Sacramento, Utah (4-1)

 

60%: Phoenix, New Orleans x2, Washington, Toronto (3-2)

 

50%: Dallas, OKC, San Antonio x2 (2-2)

 

Remaining: 11-5

Total: 55-27

[Sir Thursday]

Apologies for the long hiatus and thanks to redfaithful for the update. Here's a full listing. Made a couple of moves:

 

Utah: Gimme -> Heavy Favourite [As redfaithful points out, they've been really good recently and deserve a bump]

Sacramento: Heavy Favourite -> Gimme [These guys have been awful recently and should be demoted].

 

I toyed around with doing something with Indiana given how well they've played to get back in playoff position, but they're on a three game slide so it's not really justified to bump them up any higher.

 

ST

 

 

Current Standings:

 

 
1. Golden State (54-13)

2. Memphis (47-21)

3. Houston (45-22)

4. Portland (44-22)

5=. LA Clippers (44-25)

5=. Dallas (44-25)
7. San Antonio (42-25)

8. Oklahoma City (38-30)

 

Since Last Update:

 

@ Dallas (L)

vs Toronto (W)

vs Minnesota (W)

vs LA Clippers (W)

vs Brooklyn (W) 

vs Cleveland (W)

@ Atlanta (L)

vs Memphis (L)

vs Detroit (W)

@ Denver (W)

@ Portland (L)

@ Utah (L)

@ LA Clippers (W)

vs Orlando (W)

 

Projected Score: 8.5 wins

Actual Score: 9 wins

 

Next 5 Games:

 

vs Denver (26-42)

vs Phoenix (35-33)

@ Indiana (30-37)

@ New Orleans (37-30)

vs Minnesota (14-53)

 

Projected Score: 3.7 wins

 

Full Schedule Breakdown:

 

Gimmes (90% wins):

 

Boston x2 (2-0)

LA Lakers x3 (2-1)

Orlando x2 (1-1)

Minnesota x4 (3-0)

New York x2 (2-0)

Philadelphia x2 (2-0)

Sacramento x3 (2-0)

 

Current: 14-2

Expected: 16-2

 

Heavy Favourites (80% wins):

 

Brooklyn x2 (2-0)

Charlotte x2 (1-0)

Denver x4 (3-0)

Detroit x2 (1-1)

Indiana x2 (1-0)

Milwaukee x2 (2-0)

Utah x4 (2-1)

 

Current: 12-2

Expected: 15-3

 

Favourites (60% wins):

 

Miami x2 (2-0)

New Orleans x4 (0-2)

Phoenix x4 (3-0)

Toronto x2 (1-0)

Washington x2 (0-1)

 

Current: 6-3

Expected: 9-5

 

Even (50% wins):

 

Atlanta x2 (0-2)

Chicago x2 (1-1)

Cleveland x2 (2-0)

Dallas x4 (2-1)

Oklahoma City x3 (2-0)

Portland x3 (1-2)

San Antonio x4 (1-1)

 

Current: 9-7

Expected: 11-9

 

Underdogs (30% wins):

 

Golden State x4 (0-4)

LA Clippers x4 (2-2)

Memphis x4 (2-2)

 

Current: 4-8

Expected: 4-8

 

Current Record: 45-22

Predicted Record: 55-27

 

Hollinger Playoff Odds: 54-28

Basketball Reference Forecast: 53.7-28.3