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@  Buckko : (15 April 2014 - 05:22 AM) Hope we can get him back in the offseason, he was just signed for the rest of the offseason.
@  jorgeaam : (15 April 2014 - 04:16 AM) Bulls release Tornike Shengelia and sign Greg Smith, well, that didn't take long
@  Cooper : (15 April 2014 - 02:39 AM) nice win. Dwight looks like he's ready go. Bev's still a little rusty but he should be fine.
@  Sir Thursday : (14 April 2014 - 10:24 PM) Thanks huang, that's useful knowledge :).
@  08huangj : (14 April 2014 - 01:15 AM) I've watched a lot of his games
@  08huangj : (14 April 2014 - 01:15 AM) Guys, I live in Guangzhou. Just in case you didn't notice, Powell was in Guangzhou playing with the tigers before he came to the Rockets. No midrange shot. Good rebounder. Bad defender. Good at attacking the rim. This is my summary for his time at Guangzhou.
@  Cooper : (13 April 2014 - 11:16 PM) hes 6-9 so id guess more of a pf but it doesn't really matter either way I guess.
@  Buckko : (13 April 2014 - 11:02 PM) Not really, you seen his season averages? Not pretty.
@  Sir Thursday : (13 April 2014 - 10:18 PM) He's more of a PF, I thought. You could always make the specious "RINGZZZ!" argument, since he won two with the Lakers...
@  Buckko : (13 April 2014 - 09:04 PM) Waived Pittman, signed Josh Powell. I don't really get why they signed a scrub SF.
@  Drew in Abilene : (13 April 2014 - 02:41 AM) In the postgame interview, Bev said he was alright, but it looked iffy...
@  08huangj : (13 April 2014 - 02:40 AM) Not watching the game. Just looking at the play-by-plays.
@  08huangj : (13 April 2014 - 02:39 AM) Rockets win!
@  Drew in Abilene : (13 April 2014 - 02:39 AM) Oh gosh, I hope Beverley isn't hurt again... He was taken out in the last few seconds limping after falling and looking like he hurt his right knee...
@  08huangj : (13 April 2014 - 02:39 AM) yep
@  Drew in Abilene : (13 April 2014 - 02:35 AM) Harden, Lin, and Beverley all coming up big in these last few clutch minutes.
@  08huangj : (13 April 2014 - 02:01 AM) And why is Parsons missing?
@  08huangj : (13 April 2014 - 02:00 AM) If Rockets don't get better soon, they are not going to be the fourth seed in the western conference.
@  08huangj : (13 April 2014 - 01:59 AM) Howard and Beverley are both back, but look at the scoreboard: They are losing by 12 points to the Pelicans. What a dissapointment
@  Drew in Abilene : (13 April 2014 - 01:55 AM) I don't agree with blaming McHale for the end of this season. He's been missing two starters which has been a huge blow, and has been trying to not ride other major players too hard right before the playoffs.

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The simplest way to measure individual offensive efficiency


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#1 Red94

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    Posted 14 April 2014 - 07:56 PM

    New post: The simplest way to measure individual offensive efficiency
    By: Richard Li

    [caption id="attachment_14301" align="aligncenter" width="300"]Thumbnail Click for a full-sized, interactive version[/caption]

    Sometimes, probably most of the time, the simplest solution is the best. Admittedly I haven't always been good at keeping things simple, but I'm going to rectify the situation with this post.

    There are quite a few indicators available to measure offensive efficiency. Some combination of usage, effective field goal %, true shooting %, and points per possession is usually thrown around in the name of efficiency. But it doesn't have to be that complicated. Efficiency is just about two components--number of times something is attempted and number of times those attempts are successful.

    In the case of basketball, we're talking about trying to score and actually scoring. The above chart plots the number of points players tried to score per game against the percentage of their attempts that were converted (points scored / points attempted). For the record, the chart considers all attempted and scored 3pt-fgs, 2pt-fgs, and free throws. Only players who played at least 45 games and at least 22 minutes per game were included.

    Some of you might be asking, isn't points efficiency (on the x-axis) the same thing as true shooting percentage? The answer is no, because a little known fact is that true shooting percentage isn't calculated the way people think it is. For 3pt and 2pt fgs, it's as one would expect. But instead of counting the number of free throws a player takes and including it in the formula, true shooting percentage instead uses a constant for all players. The constant represents what portion of a person's scoring attempts comes from free throws. Worse, the constant was calculated using data from several years ago. So not only is it not player specific (since some players shoot more free throws relative to field goals than others), but it's not even year specific.

    Basically, true shooting percentage is going to be less and less accurate the more an individual player strays from that calculated average constant. It just so happens that the Houston Rockets have two players that fit that mold--James Harden and Dwight Howard. True shooting percentage underestimates Harden's efficiency because he takes a lot more free throws than average and makes them, but overestimates Dwight Howard's efficiency because he takes a lot more free throws than average but misses them.

    Enough digression. Some things worth pointing out from the chart are:

    1) James Harden is 4th in the league at points attempted per game at 48.62, behind only Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, and Kevin Love. Harden is also above average in converting those attempted points at 52.2%.

    2) Big men are still more efficient than guards and wings, even though guards and wings are more proficient in shooting threes.

    3) You can see how Chandler Parsons's oddly poor free throw shooting affects his overall scoring efficiency. Despite shooting 50% in FGs and 40% on threes, he's slightly below average in points efficiency. Whereas Harden, who is worse in FG% and 3ptFG%, makes up for it in a big way by having and converting so many free throw opportunities.

    4) Omer Asik attempts to score the least out of all players in the sample, at barely over 10 pts per game. Compare that to Durant, who attempts to score over 57 points per game.


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    #2 dbd

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      Posted 14 April 2014 - 08:59 PM

      Spurs had very balanced shot distributions and nice efficiency among its players.

      Heat and OKC leaned on a player or two.


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      #3 PhillyCheese

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        Posted 15 April 2014 - 02:47 AM

        So it looks like Lin is #9 for PGs.  But the ones at #10-12 attempt way more shots so maybe one might sarifice a little efficiency to get more scoring.


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        #4 thejohnnygold

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        Posted 15 April 2014 - 03:24 PM

        By my count Lin was 10th in efficiency among the PG's.  It was decimal points between 10th and 13th with Westbrook attempting 21 more points than Lin/game.

         

        Westbrook and Tony Parker are two unique examples.  Parker had the highest efficiency (outside of Shaun Livingston) while taking the average number of point attempts.  Westbrook went for ALL the points, but did so at a league average pace.  The result?  Roughly +6 points per game for Westbrook, but at the price of many possessions.

         

        Meanwhile, you've got defensive specialists like George Hill and Mario Chalmers taking fewer shots while hovering around average %.  It's interesting to see the different roles they can take....

         

        That upper left quadrant is just filled with young PG's.  It will be interesting to see who can make it out of that group.


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        #5 General

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          Posted 15 April 2014 - 08:03 PM



          Beverley is an SG now?!


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          #6 shirtless

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            Posted 16 April 2014 - 03:13 AM

            For some reason basketball reference classifies him as an SG. 


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            #7 Steven

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              Posted 16 April 2014 - 04:53 AM

              That's because Harden is the PG offensively. He dominates the ball when on the court.
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