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@  cointurtlemoose : (28 March 2015 - 05:23 PM) Yeah that Toronto game we are gonna be thin in the frontcourt... luckily the Raptors wouldn't give us problems like some teams would in that regard
@  08huangj : (28 March 2015 - 01:23 PM) With Dwight Howard out for one of the back to backs, the Rockets are gonna have to start Dorsey with Capela as a backup unless they go small with Josh Smith.
@  08huangj : (28 March 2015 - 01:22 PM) Did somebody else get hurt tonight? The Rockets have now lost 3 starters in 4 games.(Not counting last night.)
@  jorgeaam : (28 March 2015 - 04:53 AM) Wow, Josh Smith nearly had a triple double tonight
@  Losthief : (27 March 2015 - 11:24 PM) DMO down now too....Capela with the team.
@  Mario Peña : (27 March 2015 - 08:51 PM) Unfortunately for Durant he is out for 4-6 months and will undergo a bone graft surgery. Tough break for him and hopefully he comes back 100% next year which could potentially be his last year in OKC.
@  Losthief : (27 March 2015 - 02:21 AM) I like Llull, first i heard about him actually willing to leave spain...had almost given up on the guy.
@  majik19 : (27 March 2015 - 02:18 AM) definitely gives us some Beverly insurance should he sign elsewhere (assuming Prigioni, Terry, and McDaniels are gone next year)
@  cointurtlemoose : (27 March 2015 - 12:08 AM) Also, this would be prettyyy cool... http://hoopshype.com...ll-to-join-team
@  cointurtlemoose : (27 March 2015 - 12:06 AM) I think McHale is properly rated. This season has probably boosted him to the middle of the back. Stotts should not be higher than Vogel and Stevens, who have squeezed every drop and more out of their rosters.
@  YaoMan : (26 March 2015 - 07:48 PM) @ txt - no I don't agree with the assessment simply because of how well McHale has handled all the injuries the Rockets had. If they feel that McHale didn't orchestrate that, then Harden should be a hands down MVP when the starting 5 misses more games than any other team in the West...
@  majik19 : (26 March 2015 - 07:18 PM) I was surprised they placed Kerr at 3. I know he's having a great year, but one year does not define a coaching career. People seem to forget he inherited a 50 win team.
@  txtdo1411 : (26 March 2015 - 07:13 PM) I was pretty surprised they had Stotts at 7 as well. He has done a good job with Portland, but health (last year, not so much this season) and talent have put him in a position to succeed.
@  txtdo1411 : (26 March 2015 - 06:31 PM) You think they are correct with that assessment YaoMan? I was actually a little surprised they had Casey and Stevens ahead of him. This year McHale has shown a lot more adaptability than people thought he had in him.
@  YaoMan : (26 March 2015 - 04:50 PM) Have you seen the ESPN coach ranking lately? They have McHale at slightly better than middle of the pack: http://espn.go.com/n...ngs-top-coaches
@  YaoMan : (26 March 2015 - 04:05 PM) If the Rox can stay focus, catching Memphis is definitely a strong reality...
@  Cooper : (26 March 2015 - 02:39 AM) ended up with a nice win and the grizz dropped a game.
@  08huangj : (26 March 2015 - 12:40 AM) The rockets look dead today
@  YaoMan : (25 March 2015 - 09:03 PM) Bev out at least 7-10 days...the rotation is starting to get very thin...hopefully they all come back when playoffs start...
@  Mario Peña : (25 March 2015 - 08:22 PM) Dwight back is great news but how he recovers from the 20 minutes he ends up getting tonight is what I'm holding my breath for.

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Schedule Analysis

schedule expectations

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#1 Sir Thursday

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Posted 16 January 2012 - 07:25 PM

Current Standings:


:
:
6. Utah (12-8)
7. Portland (13-9)
8. LA Lakers (13-9)
9. Houston (12-10)
10. Memphis (11-10)
11. Minnesota (10-12)

Next 5 games:

vs. Phoenix (currently 8-13)
@ Minnesota (currently 10-12)
@ Denver (currently 14-7)
@ Portland (currently 13-9)
@ Phoenix (currently 8-13)

Expected: 2.75 from 5


Full Schedule Breakdown:

Easy wins (we should win 100% of these):

Sacramento x3 (1-0)
Toronto x2
Washington x2 (2-0)
Charlotte x2 (1-0)
Detroit x1 (1-0)
New Jersey x1

Current score: 5-0
Expected score: 11-0

Favoured (I'd like to win 75% of these):

Phoenix x4
Minnesota x4 (1-1)
Golden State x3
New Orleans x3 (1-0)
Milwaukee x1 (0-1)
Cleveland x1

Current Score: 2-2
Expected score: 11-5

Even (50%):

Memphis x4 (0-1)
Utah x3
Indiana x1
Boston x1
New York x1 (1-0)
Atlanta x1 (1-0)

Current score: 2-1
Expected score: 6-5

Underdogs (25%):

Denver x4
San Antonio x4 (2-2)
Portland x3 (1-0)
Philadelphia

Current score: 3-2
Expected score: 5-7

Games we'd be lucky to get anything out of:

OKC x4 (0-2)
Dallas x3
LA Lakers x3 (0-1)
LA Clippers x3 (0-1)
Chicago
Miami
Orlando (0-1)

Expected score: 0-16
Current score: 0-5



Current record: 12-10
Projected record: 33-33

Hollinger 8th seed playoff Projection: 36-30
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#2 Rahat Huq

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Posted 16 January 2012 - 08:22 PM

Now I know Rahat is firmly against this sort of thinking...

LOL. If we're not going to tank, I might as well cheer for some wins. FWIW, I've felt the team would make the playoffs since the Dalembert signing.
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#3 durvasa

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Posted 16 January 2012 - 10:28 PM

Nice breakdown, Sir Thursday.
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#4 Sir Thursday

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Posted 17 January 2012 - 01:41 AM

Hmm, seems there are no editing privileges here. Oh well, I guess I'll just do it post by post then. That win takes us to:

Gimmes: 3-0 (11 games, 8 remaining) -> Projected: 11-0
Favourites: 0-0 (16 games) -> Projected: 12-4
Evens: 1-1(11 games, 9 remaining) -> Projected: 6-5
Underdogs: 2-1 (12 games, 9 remaining) -> Projected: 4-8 (NB: Winning 25% of remaining games takes us to 4-8 in this section)
Just Play Hard: 0-5(16 games, 11 remaining) -> Projected: 0-16


Totals:
Current Record: 6-7
Projected Record: 33-33


Feel free to disagree with me on where I've put everyone. Wasn't sure where to put all the teams. Do Dallas merit being in the "Just Play Hard" section? Do Philly deserve their favourite status (I seem to remember we don't usually do too well against them, which is why I put them there). Maybe you'd expect us to beat New York? Discuss.


ST
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#5 Sir Thursday

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Posted 19 January 2012 - 12:46 AM

Gimmes: 4-0 (11 games, 7 remaining) -> Projected: 11-0
Favourites: 0-0 (16 games) -> Projected: 12-4
Evens: 1-1(11 games, 9 remaining) -> Projected: 6-5
Underdogs: 2-1 (12 games, 9 remaining) -> Projected: 4-8 (NB: Winning 25% of remaining games takes us to 4-8 in this section)
Just Play Hard: 0-5(16 games, 11 remaining) -> Projected: 0-16


Totals:
Current Record: 7-7
Projected Record: 33-33
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#6 Rahat Huq

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Posted 19 January 2012 - 05:19 AM

Might need to continue re-evaluating the groups as the season continues as I expect this team to continue improving. Certain opponents will seem more beatable.
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#7 Rahat Huq

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Posted 20 January 2012 - 06:49 PM

According to Jacob's latest post, if we continue our current pace, we will finish 37-29. Obviously, its unlikely they stay unbeaten against the bad teams, but interesting nonetheless.

As pro-tanking as I've been, it sure is fun watching a winning team.
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#8 Sir Thursday

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 08:44 PM

Might need to continue re-evaluating the groups as the season continues as I expect this team to continue improving. Certain opponents will seem more beatable.


Yeah, especially if there are injuries or teams just decide to play without one of their best players (like SA did last night). Still reasonably happy with how these look at the moment (might have to put Memphis back in the underdog category when Randolph comes back though).

According to Jacob's latest post, if we continue our current pace, we will finish 37-29. Obviously, its unlikely they stay unbeaten against the bad teams, but interesting nonetheless.

As pro-tanking as I've been, it sure is fun watching a winning team.


Yeah, I think 100% against all bad teams is too much to ask for, which is why I've built a little breathing room into my projections. Does mean that we get a slightly more conservative record at the end of it though. I think this season is going to be made or broken by the sections of the schedule where we start playing those teams in the Favourites/Evens groups. Winning 3/4 against Phoenix is doable but difficult, winning 2/3 against Utah is going to be key. If we can split the games with Denver, I'd be very pleased.

Gimmes: 4-0 (11 games, 7 remaining) -> Projection: 11-0
Favourites: 1-0 (16 games, 15 remaining) -> Projection: 12-4
Even: 1-1 (11 games, 9 remaining) -> Projection: 6-5
Underdog: 3-1 (12 games, 8 remaining) -> Projection: 5-7
Just Play Hard: 0-5 (16 games, 11 remaining) -> Projection: 0-16

Current Record: 9-7
Projected Record: 34-32

To stay on track, we need to go 4-1 in our next 5 games (although 3-2 wouldn't be the end of the world).

ST
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#9 Rahat Huq

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Posted 24 January 2012 - 02:52 AM

If we win tonight, we're heavy favorites in our next 4. 11 game winning streak?

:D
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#10 Sir Thursday

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Posted 26 January 2012 - 11:35 AM

I now seem to have editing privileges, so I'll just edit my summary in the OP. Much easier than having to write everything out every few days :).

ST
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#11 Rahat Huq

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Posted 26 January 2012 - 05:07 PM

Last night was the first game that we lost which we weren't supposed to lose.
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#12 Sir Thursday

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 02:08 PM

Last night was the first game that we lost which we weren't supposed to lose.


I said before the Minnesota game that we needed to go 4-1 over the next 5 games...I think you've got to expect to lose a couple of games like the Milwaukee one over the course of the season. And I don't think Milwaukee are that bad of a team - look what they did to the Lakers last night!

It's important we don't lose too many of these games, but I think it's more important that we keep winning when the schedule gets tougher. Those are the games that will make the most difference to our playoff hopes.

ST
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#13 Rahat Huq

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 01:39 AM

I said before the Minnesota game that we needed to go 4-1 over the next 5 games...I think you've got to expect to lose a couple of games like the Milwaukee one over the course of the season. And I don't think Milwaukee are that bad of a team - look what they did to the Lakers last night!

It's important we don't lose too many of these games, but I think it's more important that we keep winning when the schedule gets tougher. Those are the games that will make the most difference to our playoff hopes.

ST

Where do we stand right now?

Maybe we should add in playoff standings as well, and other relevant information, strength of schedule etc? I can put it on the front page every weekend so everyone who's not looking in here can be informed.
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#14 Sir Thursday

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 11:50 PM

Where do we stand right now?

Maybe we should add in playoff standings as well, and other relevant information, strength of schedule etc? I can put it on the front page every weekend so everyone who's not looking in here can be informed.


Good idea. I've updated the first post. Currently at 33-33, which seems a bit low to get in given the how far above .500 everyone in the West is at the moment. It's good we're doing better than expected against the stronger teams, but we can't afford to lose many more games against the likes of Minnesota if we want to get in...

Feel free to put these up whenever you think people need reminding :P.

ST
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#15 Rahat Huq

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 01:54 AM

Good idea. I've updated the first post. Currently at 33-33, which seems a bit low to get in given the how far above .500 everyone in the West is at the moment. It's good we're doing better than expected against the stronger teams, but we can't afford to lose many more games against the likes of Minnesota if we want to get in...

Feel free to put these up whenever you think people need reminding :P.

ST

Sure thing. I'll post these up once every weekend, either Saturday or Sunday. However, instead of editing the first post, can you just add the update to the end of the thread? That will make it easier for people to find it, if they don't know what's going on.
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#16 Sir Thursday

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 08:14 PM

Current Standings:

:
:
3. LA Clippers (15-8)
4. Houston (16-11)
5. LA Lakers (15-11)
6. Dallas (15-11)
7. Denver (15-12)
8. Utah (13-11)
9. Portland (14-12)

Next 5 games:

@ Golden State (currently 8-13)
@ Memphis (currently 12-13)
vs. Oklahoma City (currently 19-5)
vs. Minnesota (currently 13-13)
vs. Utah (currently 13-11)

Expected: 2.75 from 5


Full Schedule Breakdown:

Easy wins (we should win 100% of these):

Sacramento x3 (1-0)
Toronto x2
Washington x2 (2-0)
Charlotte x2 (1-0)
Detroit x1 (1-0)
New Jersey x1

Current score: 5-0
Expected score: 11-0

Favoured (I'd like to win 75% of these):

Phoenix x4 (2-0)
Minnesota x4 (1-2)
Golden State x3
New Orleans x3 (1-0)
Milwaukee x1 (0-1)
Cleveland x1

Current Score: 4-3
Expected score: 11-5

Even (50%):

Memphis x4 (0-1)
Utah x3
Indiana x1
Boston x1
New York x1 (1-0)
Atlanta x1 (1-0)

Current score: 2-1
Expected score: 6-5

Underdogs (25%):

Denver x4 (1-0)
San Antonio x4 (2-2)
Portland x3 (2-0)
Philadelphia

Current score: 5-2
Expected score: 6-6

Games we'd be lucky to get anything out of:

OKC x4 (0-2)
Dallas x3
LA Lakers x3 (0-1)
LA Clippers x3 (0-1)
Chicago
Miami
Orlando (0-1)

Expected score: 0-16
Current score: 0-5



Current record: 16-11
Projected record: 34-32

Hollinger 8th seed playoff Projection: 37-29
Hollinger Rockets Projection: 38-28
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#17 Sir Thursday

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Posted 13 February 2012 - 11:56 PM

Current Standings:

:
:
4. Dallas (17-11)
5. LA Lakers (16-12)
6. Houston (16-12)
7. Denver (16-12)
8. Utah (14-12)
9. Portland (15-13)

Next 5 games:

@ Memphis (currently 14-14)
vs. Oklahoma City (currently 21-6)
vs. Minnesota (currently 13-13)
vs. Utah (currently 14-12)
vs. Memphis (currently 14-14)

Expected: 2.25 from 5


Full Schedule Breakdown:

Easy wins (we should win 100% of these):

Sacramento x3 (1-0)
Toronto x2
Washington x2 (2-0)
Charlotte x2 (1-0)
Detroit x1 (1-0)
New Jersey x1

Current score: 5-0
Expected score: 11-0

Favoured (I'd like to win 75% of these):

Phoenix x4 (2-0)
Minnesota x4 (1-2)
Golden State x3 (0-1)
New Orleans x3 (1-0)
Milwaukee x1 (0-1)
Cleveland x1

Current Score: 4-4
Expected score: 10-6

Even (50%):

Memphis x4 (0-1)
Utah x3
Indiana x1
Boston x1
New York x1 (1-0)
Atlanta x1 (1-0)

Current score: 2-1
Expected score: 6-5

Underdogs (25%):

Denver x4 (1-0)
San Antonio x4 (2-2)
Portland x3 (2-0)
Philadelphia

Current score: 5-2
Expected score: 6-6

Games we'd be lucky to get anything out of:

OKC x4 (0-2)
Dallas x3
LA Lakers x3 (0-1)
LA Clippers x3 (0-1)
Chicago
Miami
Orlando (0-1)

Expected score: 0-16
Current score: 0-5



Current record: 16-12
Projected record: 33-33

Hollinger 8th seed playoff Projection: 37-29
Hollinger Rockets Projection: 38-28
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#18 Sir Thursday

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Posted 17 February 2012 - 01:01 AM

Current Standings:

:
:
4. Dallas (19-11)
5. LA Lakers (17-12)
6. Houston (17-13)
7. Denver (17-13)
8. Portland (16-14)
9. Memphis (16-14)

Next 5 games:

vs. Minnesota (currently 14-16)
vs. Utah (currently 14-14)
vs. Memphis (currently 16-14)
vs. Philadelphia (currently 20-10)
vs. Toronto (currently 9-22)

Expected: 3 from 5


Full Schedule Breakdown:

Easy wins (we should win 100% of these):

Sacramento x3 (1-0)
Toronto x2
Washington x2 (2-0)
Charlotte x2 (1-0)
Detroit x1 (1-0)
New Jersey x1

Current score: 5-0
Expected score: 11-0

Favoured (I'd like to win 75% of these):

Phoenix x4 (2-0)
Minnesota x4 (1-2)
Golden State x3 (0-1)
New Orleans x3 (1-0)
Milwaukee x1 (0-1)
Cleveland x1

Current Score: 4-4
Expected score: 10-6

Even (50%):

Memphis x4 (0-2)
Utah x3
Indiana x1
Boston x1
New York x1 (1-0)
Atlanta x1 (1-0)

Current score: 2-2
Expected score: 6-5

Underdogs (25%):

Denver x4 (1-0)
San Antonio x4 (2-2)
Portland x3 (2-0)
Philadelphia

Current score: 5-2
Expected score: 6-6

Games we'd be lucky to get anything out of:

OKC x4 (1-2)
Dallas x3
LA Lakers x3 (0-1)
LA Clippers x3 (0-1)
Chicago
Miami
Orlando (0-1)

Current score: 1-5
Expected score: 1-15



Current record: 17-13
Projected record: 34-32

Hollinger Rockets Projection: 37-29
Hollinger 8th seed playoff Projection: 36-30
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#19 Sir Thursday

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Posted 20 February 2012 - 01:24 PM

Current Standings:

:
:
4. Dallas (20-12)
5. LA Lakers (18-13)
6. Memphis (18-14)
7. Houston (18-14)
8. Portland (17-15)
9. Denver (17-15)


Next 5 games:

vs. Memphis (currently 18-14)
vs. Philadelphia (currently 20-12)
vs. Toronto (currently 9-23)
@ Utah (currently 15-15)
vs. Denver (currently 17-15)

Expected: 2.75 from 5


Full Schedule Breakdown:

Easy wins (we should win 100% of these):

Sacramento x3 (1-0)
Toronto x2
Washington x2 (2-0)
Charlotte x2 (1-0)
Detroit x1 (1-0)
New Jersey x1

Current score: 5-0
Expected score: 11-0

Favoured (I'd like to win 75% of these):

Phoenix x4 (2-0)
Minnesota x4 (1-3)
Golden State x3 (0-1)
New Orleans x3 (1-0)
Milwaukee x1 (0-1)
Cleveland x1

Current Score: 4-5
Expected score: 9-7

Even (50%):

Memphis x4 (0-2)
Utah x3 (1-0)
Indiana x1
Boston x1
New York x1 (1-0)
Atlanta x1 (1-0)

Current score: 3-2
Expected score: 6-5

Underdogs (25%):

Denver x4 (1-0)
San Antonio x4 (2-2)
Portland x3 (2-0)
Philadelphia

Current score: 5-2
Expected score: 6-6

Games we'd be lucky to get anything out of:

OKC x4 (1-2)
Dallas x3
LA Lakers x3 (0-1)
LA Clippers x3 (0-1)
Chicago
Miami
Orlando (0-1)

Current score: 1-5
Expected score: 1-15



Current record: 18-14
Projected record: 33-33

Hollinger Rockets Projection: 37-29
Hollinger 8th seed playoff Projection: 36-30
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#20 Rahat Huq

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 07:59 PM

SirThursday: A couple of readers were asking for an update on this. What do you have?
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