38 replies to this topic

[Red94]

New post: The Houston Rockets have a terrific bench... and don't use it
By: Richard Li

During the recent game against the Chicago Bulls, Aaron Brooks came off the bench for a few minutes. Jeff Van Gundy remarked, "If Aaron Brooks were on the Bulls he would be their best offensive player. He's the third string point guard on the Rockets. That's how deep this team is." JVG is right. The Houston Rockets are incredibly deep.  Coming off the bench regularly are a scorer (Lin), two 3-and-D wings (Garcia, Casspi), a big (Asik... yeah, I know), and a grinder (Smith). Seeing spot duty or injury fill-in duty are a microwave man (Brooks) and a stretch 4 (D-Mo).  Those are very useful roles to be filled by young, talented players. Just ask the Pacers or the Bulls (when Rose was whole) how valuable a productive bench can be.

Here's how the Houston Rockets bench ranks league-wide, according to NBA.com:

• 3rd in points per possession
• 4th in TS%
• 5th in net points per possession
• 8th in +/- per game

But here's the most important stat about the Houston Rockets bench:

• 25th in minutes per game

Only five other teams play their benches less than the Houston Rockets. Below is a chart that plots every team's bench according to how much they play and their net points per possession (click for a full-sized interactive version).

Playing time on the y-axis is in terms of the percentage of a team's minutes played by the team's bench.

There are a couple of things I want to point out. Most teams' benches don't play very much, and most teams benches aren't very good. The number of teams below and to the left of the respective average lines are far more numerous than their counterparts. The averages are skewed positively by some truly remarkable bench play.

Unsurprisingly, the Spurs are running away with the title of most amazing bench ever. The Heat and the Thunder also have some incredible benches (hint, these three teams have a track record of knowing what they are doing). The chart also portends a dangerous a future for teams like the Pacers, Blazers, and Warriors. Their benches are pretty meh and don't play very much (probably because they're pretty meh). Injuries and fatigue loom darkly.

The Houston Rockets, it turns out, are one of very few teams (maybe just two, with the other being the Clippers) that has an incredibly productive bench... that doesn't play. It's very apparent where those minutes are going.

• James Harden ranks 3rd in the league in mpg
• Chandler Parsons ranks 12th in the league in mpg
• Harden, Parsons, and Dwight Howard rank 1st in the league in mpg for all 3-man lineups
• Harden and Parsons rank 4th in the league in mpg for all 2-man lineups

Basically our super productive bench is being squeezed through a bottleneck. Those five guys (potentially seven) are all subbing in for two players, Jones and Beverley, thus severely limiting their playing time.

Interestingly, the Houston Rockets staff seems to know this. The big question regarding the Asik trade has always been who can be traded for and help the team? The answer seemed to gravitate towards no one, because any player received in return will be a role player who will only add to a talented bench that doesn't play very much. Hence, the focus became draft picks, which never materialized.

But to fix this situation, doesn't that mean (gasp) Harden, Parsons, and Howard have to (gulp), sit? Yes. Their replacements are more than capable.  It also keeps them fresh and healthy. Don't forget that these three players, over the course of less than a year, have all suffered or are suffering from what can be considered chronic wear-and-tear ailments (Howard-back, Parsons-back, Harden-ankle and foot). To make matters worse, Parsons is also 4th in the league in distance traveled per game. Why not give them a break?

 

[NYerinCalifornia]

Agreed. I think JLin could be the Harden in OKC of Rox. Instant production, feasting on other teams second unit, and freedom to lead when he is on floor. When Harden is out of game entirely (few x this season for minor injuries) Lin unleashes and scores. He's a top driver in NBA, breaks down defenses. If Lin and Asik were in more together we'd see extraordinary integration that we just dont get otherwise. 

 

To play devils advocate, though, it might be that McHale is trying to get the younguns some seasoning quickly, then will take foot off gas later and let them rest. Sadly, I dont think McHale is a good enough coach to plan that far ahead like that.

[2016Champions]

Great post.  Rockets have the best 2nd unit in the league when healthy, good enough to beat most 1st units in the league. 

[Rahat Huq]

Great post. Have to remember that McHale is coaching for his coaching life as well.  Someone like Pop can look ahead because he's safe.  

[goRockets]

Maybe McHale is saving his super bench for the playoffs? Well, if not, and he continues to play Harden, Parson, Dwight long minutes, then chances are at least one of them probably will have some type of injury sooner or later (matter of probability) and he won't have any choice but to play bench players more. I think if he were smart, he should give his best players the rest they need in the regular season. We all know doesn't matter how many games you win in regular season, you must win 16 games in playoffs to win the championship. Granted Lin is still working back from injury and Asik is out too, so bench is really just Brooks, Garcia, Casspi and Smith coming back recently. But would be nice once Lin is healthy again and Omer back too (since he's not getting traded for at least another month or too probably), that these guys would see more minutes, it's good for team and for starters health. But not sure if the old school McHale would do it though, his trust in Lin and bench in general is not that high, when starters are playing well, he tends not to pull them out.

[NorEastern]

Without Lin and Asik the Rockets bench would not be competitive. What effect has their missed games had on bench productivity?

Mr. Huq says:

"Great post. Have to remember that McHale is coaching for his coaching life as well. Someone like Pop can look ahead because he's safe."

What makes you think that McHale's job is in peril? I do not understand that viewpoint.

[rocketrick]

New post: The Houston Rockets have a terrific bench... and don't use it
By: Richard Li

During the recent game against the Chicago Bulls, Aaron Brooks came off the bench for a few minutes. Jeff Van Gundy remarked, "If Aaron Brooks were on the Bulls he would be their best offensive player. He's the third string point guard on the Rockets. That's how deep this team is." 

 

 

I don't mean to nitpick, but I also distinctly remember JVG's comment last night on the ESPN broadcast and he actually stated that if AB were on the Bulls, he would be their best PG...............

 

Which when you see who the Bulls have playing PG since the DRose injury, is not hard to understand.

 

I think I would rank Boozer above AB in terms of offense.

Edited by rocketrick, 20 December 2013 - 02:56 AM.

[rocketrick]

Even though OKC rated well in this statistical study, the author failed to mention the heavy minutes that Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant play are comparable to James Harden and Dwight Howard. Another comparison would be with LeBron James and Dwayne Wade.

RW 33.1 mpg
KD 38.1 mpg
71.2 mpg for top 2

LBJ 35.5 mpg
DW 33.7 mpg
69.2 mpg for top 2

JH 38.7 mpg
DH 33.6 mpg
72.3 mpg for top 2

Also factor in that Miami not only has a veteran team, but is also playing in the Eastern Conference, and have the luxury of sitting their players out due to more blowout wins.

I did notice that Chandler Parsons is averaging 37.0 mpg but I would argue that Harden and D12 are the Rockets top 2 options just like LeBron and DWade are in Miami and KD and Westbrook are in OKC. Certainly proves the importance of having Chandler Parsons on this team!

Don't forget all the injuries the Rockets have dealt with thus far this season:

Harden missed 4 games
Beverly missed 3 games
Parsons missed 2 games
Asik missed 9 games
Lin missed 8 games
Francisco missed 1 game
Casspi missed 1 game
TJones has 3 DNP-CD's due to the Twin Towers Experiment

D12 is the only top 9 Rockets player that has not missed a single game thus far. So much for D12 injury concerns!

I have seen too many times this season when McHale is trying to get what is left of his bench to play well enough in the early 4th quarters of several games and being forced to pull them due to the opponent making a run.

Anyway, I don't want to say too much more because I tend to be seen as a sort of "Homer" for choosing not to criticize as much as a number of other members on this board.

[Rahat Huq]

Without Lin and Asik the Rockets bench would not be competitive. What effect has their missed games had on bench productivity?

Mr. Huq says:

"Great post. Have to remember that McHale is coaching for his coaching life as well. Someone like Pop can look ahead because he's safe."

What makes you think that McHale's job is in peril? I do not understand that viewpoint.

It's not in peril but its certainly not safe.  Consider that Morey fired a future HOFer in Adelman and a universally respected one on JVG.  Noone here is safe.  Pops on the other hand pretty much runs that organization.

[rocketrick]

It's not in peril but its certainly not safe.  Consider that Morey fired a future HOFer in Adelman and a universally respected one on JVG.  Noone here is safe.  Pops on the other hand pretty much runs that organization.

JVG was given an opportunity to return but waited to long to make a decision after the miserable Game 7 loss at Toyota Center to the Utah Jazz. He was offered an extension during the regular season that year and chose to wait until the end of the season then he was anything but certain whether he wanted to return or not afterwards until it was too late.

Adelman was butting heads with Morey on the roster changes. I think the whole roster flipped again even after the firing of Adelman with the exception of Chandler Parsons and Greg Smith.

[Cooper]

I'd expect harden and Howard to start be pulled a little earlier in games against the bottom teams to hopefully save them a little wear and tear.

[rocketrick]

I'd expect harden and Howard to start be pulled a little earlier in games against the bottom teams to hopefully save them a little wear and tear.

I'm all for that, but I would also like to see the Rockets obtain the highest possible seed in the Western Conference, too. The challenge for Coach McHale and the rest of his staff is figuring out how to "save" Harden and Howard (and Parsons) while not affecting the big picture. Hopefully our key bench players can return to health (Lin and Asik) and stay healthy to give us the necessary boost. Kudos to AB for his efforts thus far this season. His efforts have been valuable and sorely needed!

[feelingsupersonic]

Even though OKC rated well in this statistical study, the author failed to mention the heavy minutes that Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant play are comparable to James Harden and Dwight Howard. Another comparison would be with LeBron James and Dwayne Wade.RW 33.1 mpgKD 38.1 mpg71.2 mpg for top 2LBJ 35.5 mpgDW 33.7 mpg69.2 mpg for top 2JH 38.7 mpgDH 33.6 mpg72.3 mpg for top 2Also factor in that Miami not only has a veteran team, but is also playing in the Eastern Conference, and have the luxury of sitting their players out due to more blowout wins.I did notice that Chandler Parsons is averaging 37.0 mpg but I would argue that Harden and D12 are the Rockets top 2 options just like LeBron and DWade are in Miami and KD and Westbrook are in OKC. Certainly proves the importance of having Chandler Parsons on this team!Don't forget all the injuries the Rockets have dealt with thus far this season:Harden missed 4 gamesBeverly missed 3 gamesParsons missed 2 gamesAsik missed 9 gamesLin missed 8 gamesFrancisco missed 1 gameCasspi missed 1 gameTJones has 3 DNP-CD's due to the Twin Towers ExperimentD12 is the only top 9 Rockets player that has not missed a single game thus far. So much for D12 injury concerns!I have seen too many times this season when McHale is trying to get what is left of his bench to play well enough in the early 4th quarters of several games and being forced to pull them due to the opponent making a run.Anyway, I don't want to say too much more because I tend to be seen as a sort of "Homer" for choosing not to criticize as much as a number of other members on this board.

Outstanding post rocketrick and good counter argument. Applying those stats in the real world goes a long way towards truly understanding the bigger picture. I also happen to agree with your point of view. Unlike other contenders or almost contenders the Rockets are a lineup getting forged in the fire this year and next year the experience this team gains will result in a noticeable jump.

Also thank you to Richard for raising this question. The topic is presented well.

[SadLakerFan]

It's not in peril but its certainly not safe.  Consider that Morey fired a future HOFer in Adelman and a universally respected one on JVG.  Noone here is safe.  Pops on the other hand pretty much runs that organization.

 

This is an excellent point.  The decision to limit starter minutes in the hopes of a long playoff run has to be an organizational decision.

[lawprofsr]

I think the starters need lots of minutes right now to get in sync with each other, especially after working out the Asik/Howard and Lin 6th man ideas. Another few weeks of this, and then there's plenty of time to get the starters more rest before the playoffs while the bench gets to work out their kinks. At least, that might make sense if you give them credit for having a plan. 

[RollingWave]

Yeah, injury have played a part in this, with probably the exception to Chandler Parsons who's been runned like that all year long regardless.

 

which is why I have argued that we need another wing, if your not going to play Brewer (and there's plenty of good reason that they aren't.) then waive him and find anyone else for that spot. there are plenty of mildly functional wings you can trade for with a Dmo. we don't even need the guy to play massive minutes, just 10 freaking functional minuets.

 

I was hoping we swindle Iman Shumpert somehow. that seems like one of the more ideal role player for what we need now. but the Knicks massively overvalue him and it's hard to matchup anything reasonable.

Edited by RollingWave, 20 December 2013 - 09:25 AM.

[sli]

<br /><br /><p>This is the first time I see analysts or media calling out the coach. Previously they have carefully avoided criticizing McHale. What gave me that conclusion was how all media types referred to TJones' "emergence". Everyone tries to imply by saying "TJones emerges" that Jones earned his spot by significantly improved his play last year, which was not true. TJones could have contributed last year. The truthful words to use should be "TJones unleashed"!</p>

[2016Champions]

I think Jones emerged as a 3pt shooter shooting over 40% on 3s his first several games as a starter, but he has digressed to the mean shooting only 18% on 3's the last 5 games.

[Sir Thursday]

This is a really interesting area to look into! Bench play would seem to be pretty well correlated with team success looking at the teams in the top-right quadrant.

 

I'd be interested to know though - what is the methodology used to define a 'bench player' here? Are we talking about "All players were not on the court at the start of a game", or "All players not defined as the team's starters"? As others have said, the former definition can be affected in a big way by injuries - if those are forcing bench players to be 'starters' for certain games, it will have the effect of diminishing the number of minutes the bench plays (3rd string players become the 'bench' and the coach is less likely to trust them playing big minutes). On the other hand, the latter definition is a difficult one to define, since for some teams who the 'starters' are is rather fluid.

 

ST

[rockets best fan]

I agree with the view point that injuries this year have affected what we would consider bench play. Lin being out, Asik being out in addition to starters for some games must be accounted for when considering our bench play. I also agree with the view that we need to play our starters more heavily until we have developed better chemistry. we have plenty of time to rest before the playoffs. however we are not yet clicking on all cylinders. I have seen flashes of what we can become, but we are not there yet