44 replies to this topic

[Red94]

New post: Huq's Pen: Where boredom continues
By: rahat huq

• We're still in the midst of the darkest stretch of the year, but at the least, for now, we can bridge the gap with some football.  The good guys opened up the year last night in underwhelming fashion but closed out the night in an equally dramatic way, coming from down 21 to steal victory from the jaws of defeat.  Andre Johnson defied age, Matt Schaub grew his fan club (the one fanatic of the notion of him being replaced), and Brian Cushing made my knee, for just a few minutes, feel a lot better.  Yes, I too, dear reader, am recovering from a torn ACL.  
• Watching Arian Foster curse on the sidelines late in the fourth after being pulled for Ben Tate evoked memories of the Lin-Beverley debate surrounding the basketball team a few miles down the street.  Well, not really.
• The obsession with LaMarcus Aldridge continues to pop up on different pages covering this team, yet for the life of me, the more I think about it, the less the idea makes sense.  Now this is not to say that Aldridge does not have value: for a third option, you could do far worse than a guy with the 26th highest overall RAPM in the league (albeit one lower than Omer Asik's).  But at $16million?  A reader asked if, in a vacuum, I'd prefer Aldridge to Asik, and I responded that yes, I think I probably would.  But stepping out of that vacuum and into the reality of the Houston Rockets salary structure and team ecosystem and I not only choose Asik but find a way to make he and Howard work.  Aldridge is marvelously skilled, yes, would space the floor, sure, and of course hails from my alma mater.  Why wouldn't I be partial?  But perusing the shot charts of every player acquired since the Morey Revolution makes me wonder why anyone would think Elvis would trade major assets for a player who takes more midrange jumpshots than anyone in the league.  Spreading the floor is great, but if that's the goal, you can find guys who are cheaper, and who do it from a few feet further out where that expected value skyrockets.

• A video surfaced some days ago of Chandler Parsons diligently attending to some of the finer aspects of his game, namely his ball-handling and mid-range pullup.  It's a welcome sight from a guy who figures to play even more minutes next season with Carlos Delfino having departed and still no real traditional power forward options having arisen to the forefront.  While I argued that Asik should get some time next to Howard, I fully anticipate for Parsons to close games out next to James Harden at the forward spots.  If you're the rest of the NBA, with Dwight Howard inside, good luck with covering that.  If Parsons can add some other wrinkle to his game, it will bring us closer to a proper valuation - as I noted some weeks ago, we really have no idea what Chandler Parsons is worth.
• I mentioned on Twitter that Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik were basically a homeless man's version of Dwight Howard and James Harden to which a reader replied, "The basketball gods said "Oh, that's what you wanted.  It was tough to figure out with all that trading.  How about these?"  That about sums it up.  Another noted, in response to my desire to just run the same sets all game long with the two duos, albeit with some drop-off, that "against backups, Lin and Asik might not even have much of a drop-off."  That's a valid point and another case for bringing Lin off the bench, a proposition which makes a ton of sense.

[RollingWave]

I guess maybe Aldridge could change his game and start taking more 3s, but when's the last time you see a player as established like that make dramatic changes to his game in his prime? (without some dramatic changes in the game rules.)

[NorEastern]

Sigh. The era of the 3-23 foot mid ranged shot is over. It is the worst shot in basketball. Why anyone would want LMA on this team is beyond me. He may have three point range, or he may not. His career stats do not hint at three point range.

Parsons however is an interesting topic. With Howard how many more open 3 point shots is he going to get each game?

If the PF cannot keep Howard from the rim, the center cannot cut off Hardens penetration. That leaves the SF as the only viable option to stop a Harden layup. If Parsons gets three more open corner treys a game he will score 20 ppg. We shall see.

[Stephen]

Rahat,
There are many arguments against Aldridge being a bad fit,but money is not one of them. Esp after saying Morey wouldn't want to spend the money on an All-Star starting PF,but he'd be willing to make the his third highest paid player a BACK-UP PG?
We're talking Salary Cap dollars,not real salary,as next Season Asik will be paid just $1mil less than Aldridge.
As for the salary Cap,it's been blown.the only options the Rockets have the next two yrs is via trade or the Draft. Howard and Harden make over $34mil this yr,$36mil next.Keeping Lin and Asik adds almost another $17mil to Cap and that's $51-53mil right there. Add in Parsons,even at $8mil,and the Rockets have blown past the Cap w/just 5 players.(Which is why Parson will get paid by the Rockets,unless Motie or Jones explodes. Having a hole at PF and zero Cap space to sign a replacement SF,the Rockets will have to pay Parsons. Just as Morey felt he had to overpay Scola.)
Beverly,Motie,Jones,Canaan adds another $5mil.
The cost of paying Aldridge over Asik and the other player(s) sent with him-in the unlikely event such happens-only impacts the Rockets from a Cap standpoint in by swapping the full MLE for the much smaller Lux Player Exception. Which as we've seen in Miami,LA and elsewhere,is attractive enough to get quality bench vets.

[Cooper]

I would echo the point that cap for Aldrige is irelevant we don't have cap either way and still wouldn't be in the lux tax just yet with Aldrige, whether you think he's a good fit or not is a reasonable objection. Also the 3-23 jumper isn't going anywhere that's too much wasted space to just completely ignore if you have guys that shoot well from there then you let them take the shots. Parsons will never be a 20ppg player you have to be a lights out scorer to get 20 per game these days.

[timetodienow1234567]

Good defenses will take the three and the layup away. I know a lot of you are stat guys to the exclusion of everything else. But just because something is inefficient as the first or second option doesn't mean it's worthless. One of the smartest coaches in the league is Pop and TP shoots a good percentage from midrange. The SA offense is very balanced. Green/Leonard are their 3 point men. TP and TD are their midrange/layup guys and Splitter is their PnR guy. I may be wrong, but a balanced offense is essential in the playoffs.

[Alituro]

I think one problem with pursuing LMA, is that there are not enough shots to go around to utilize our players to the maximum. Especially if we start Lin, we have him, Harden and Howard who are going to demand the ball often to score, and to some extent, Parsons as well. Harden should be in the upper 20s and Howard in mid to low 20s and Lin and Parsons are going to try and throw in high teens or even scratch 20 (points per game). That doesn't leave much for LMA, and even if he does nudge into the twenties himself, it's going to come at a cost. The cost being efficiency in that those points are going to come from the worst spots on the floor.
Right now our depth charts are set up so we can play essentially the same style ball throughout the game with the major differences being only the number on the jersey of a player in a particular spot. Our parts are interchangeable. Throw in a guy who works at 15-18' from the basket, and all of a sudden our parts are not as complementary anymore. It will force players to give pause, and thus an edge to their opponent if they have to adjust in their minds for LMA being on the floor.

.....Annnnnd if you are giving Lin and Asik for LMA, you are giving up 23pts, 15rbds and 7 assists from two players who are suited for our current system and get back 21pts, 9rbds and 3 assists in a player likely to be a misfit.

LMA has been one of my favorite non-Rocket over the years and in the past was yearning for a trade for him. Now we've got a contender built up and I just don't think he'd fit.

[rockets best fan]

when it come to LMA some of you guys could not be further off base

 

1. THE MONEY.....if we move Lin and Asik in a deal for LMA it will actually save the Rockets enough money that they would almost fall back under the salary cap....Lin and Asik combined cap hit is 16.6......LMA makes a little over 14 mil next year. so the Rockets will reduce their cap number by almost 2 mil. however the following year is where the Rockets would reap a windfall profit. while Lin's and Asik's cap hits remain the same their combined salary jumps to 30 mil.....14.4 mil over what LMA will be getting paid.......that's cold hard cash the Rockets wouldn't have to pay out.......how can you view that as not being an advantage?

 

2. TEAM CHEMISTRY......I keep hearing some of you talk about Morey and the Rockets as a whole not liking the midrange shot. nothing could be further from the truth. the Rockets tailored their offense to 3 pointers and rim shots because they thought that was the way to maximize the talent on the roster. they didn't have a deadly 2 point shooter so they didn't shoot them. they didn't hate 2 point shots when Scola was here because he shot them at an effective clip. same will happen in case of LMA. he shoots them at an effective clip so the Rockets would be foolish to waste his talents in that area. as more and more teams go to the moneyball strategy......defenses will evolve to better control these areas of the floor. to keep them off balance we're going to need someone who can shoot the midrange shot............................also I keep hearing this 48 minutes of top line defense angle to justify Asik being on this team. this is another reason LMA is the perfect answer. how many teams have a backup center as good as LMA? yet that approach still allows us to maximize how our money is being spent in relation to talent use. 8 mil is to much to pay for backups.........it's just that simple

[Red94]

New post: More on Aldridge
By: rahat huq

I wrote this morning some thoughts on LaMarcus Aldridge.  A reader writes:

Quote:

As for the salary Cap,it's been blown.the only options the Rockets have the next two yrs is via trade or the Draft.

I should clarify.  My contention with theoretically paying Aldridge $16million does not stem from a desire to preserve space or from a fear of reaching some limit already not reached.  As the reader said, the cap has already been blown.  My contention with an Aldridge play pertains to salary allocation.  If we accept the premise that Les Alexander probably will not too greatly exceed the luxury tax threshold--if at all--(which I think is a very reasonable assumption), then we can envision a finite limit or threshold above which the Rockets will not exceed.  Having set this limit, our desire is in distributing available dollars in a manner which ensures the greatest utility or enjoyment.

For example, I love cake.  If I have $100, I could potentially spend all of it on cake.  But after a certain point of expenditures, I'm not really getting the same enjoyment out of the cake.  I'd derive more happiness spending some of the money on a new pair of pants or something.

While crude, that's how I look at allocating the cap.  It is my opinion that in the modern collective bargaining era, the threshold of diminished returns is experienced after the second max-dollar offensive star.  That is to say, if you had no other max-dollar offensive stars, or just Harden, you'd derive full utility out of someone like LaMarcus Aldridge.  But if you already have Dwight Howard and James Harden on your roster, you're not getting your full money's worth.  The third guy isn't getting enough touches to maximize his capabilities and justify what you're paying him.  To extend the analogy, it's like how stuffing your face with pie doesn't taste as heavenly after the first few slices.

It is my belief that the most effective model of salary allocation is having two max players, followed by two players each earning in the $8million range (as the Rockets currently have.)  Those latter two players will still be able to produce at a rate respective to their salaries.  That's not the case for a max-dollar player.  The more that usage% dips, the less bang you're getting for your buck, and that's inevitably the case for a third option.

One might point to the Celtics, but I'd counter that they were a unique blend of talents who complemented each other's abilities.  Pierce handled the ball, Allen came off screens, and Garnett was the greatest team defender since Bill Russell.  It fit.  On the other hand, while we like to think of Dwight Howard as the "just rebound and defend" Garnett-type Kobe wanted him to be, the reality is that he's going to want his fair share of touches in the post.  And of course there's Harden.  That would leave Aldridge just cleaning up the leftovers, from the midrange.  I think there's better ways to use $16million.  And there are cheaper ways to space the floor.

Again, it's not about saving room.  It's about getting the highest rate of production out of the money you're spending.  I don't think having three offensive stars allows that.

**

An interesting discussion arose in the wake of the Heat's second championship in three years.  Did it validate the three star model or did their performance serve as an indictment?  On the one hand, they had three stars...and they won.  On the other hand, they had the greatest player of his generation--potentially of all-time--at the peak of his career, and they still barely won.  If those other two guys were earning their pay, shouldn't the Heat, in theory, have cruised past everyone on their way to the championship?  Bosh came up huge in that last game, but overall, wouldn't they have looked better with Asik and someone else making $8million?

A reader writes:

Quote:

Also the 3-23 jumper isn't going anywhere that's too much wasted space to just completely ignore if you have guys that shoot well from there then you let them take the shots.

I should be clear.  I'm not against midrange shots nor do I think Morey is, not to the point of "completely ignoring" them.  But what I do think is that they're secondary options.  It's ok if you have someone like Patrick Patterson, on a rookie deal, taking them; it's ok if you have Marc Gasol, who does so much of everything else, taking them.  But paying someone a huge chunk of your cap to pretty much only take midrange jumpers is something I don't think Daryl Morey would do.  (Aldridge led the league in midrange jumpers.)

[Buckko]

Basically summarized, it's better to have a couple good paid role players than one max player reduced to a role player. LMA could never replace asik and lins combine game and stats. Now face it for aldrige fans, it's just a fantasy and I don't even need to talk about our cap space or lack of wanted trade pieces.

[Stephen]

Rahat,
Thought exercise...
OKC offers Westbrook for Lin and Jones. Would you do it?

[timetodienow1234567]

I stopped reading after you tried to give a lecture on economics.

[Rahat Huq]

Rahat,
Thought exercise...
OKC offers Westbrook for Lin and Jones. Would you do it?

Yea but that's because Jones isn't really much of anything right now.  But let's say Jones develops into a player whose production is worthy of 8million, or, half of Westbrook's salary.  (Maybe 16 and 8?)  I keep Lin and Jones.  

[timetodienow1234567]

Yea but that's because Jones isn't really much of anything right now. But let's say Jones develops into a player whose production is worthy of 8million, or, half of Westbrook's salary. (Maybe 16 and 8?) I keep Lin and Jones.

But you have to think about how much easier to find Lin/Jones level players versus a top 10 player. You try and amass talent and worry about fit later.

[Rahat Huq]

^I feel we're past that phase of amassing talent.  Now, we want fit.  

[RollingWave]

Rahat,
Thought exercise...
OKC offers Westbrook for Lin and Jones. Would you do it?

yes but why would OKC do it.

 

(its not the greatest fit for Houston either but they clearly won out like bandits in terms of talent swap.)

[timetodienow1234567]

I Somewhat agree, but I mean do we have overwhelming talent? I think we have less talent than OKC had against Miami and they lost. We don't have a Pop/Phil level coach to bridge that gap. Harden is a one way player. If the deal makes sense we should make it. The best fit/talent would probably be Ibaka. Trading Lin/Asik for Ibaka would help both teams. Of course Durant would have to move to the 4 permanently for that to work. And I'm not so sure OKC would want to lose Ibaka after choosing him over Harden.

[RollingWave]

I don't know if we have overwhelming talent, but I know that Dallas clearly didn't have overwhelming talent and still won. in fact you look at the 4 teams they beat out that year , only the Blazers you can clearly say they had an talent advantage, everyone else was at best a wash and mostly likely worse .

 

Overwhelming talent still need to be made to work.  Kobe + Melo is overwhelming talent, but it's also likely a hilarious disaster for example.

Edited by RollingWave, 12 September 2013 - 04:01 AM.

[Buckko]

I wan to see LA fans hype up on kobe and melo joining together and creating a situation worst than the dwightmare. Sorry off-topic, I just can't stand lakers, they are so arrogant and irritating.

[rockets best fan]

^I feel we're past that phase of amassing talent.  Now, we want fit.  

the thought of fit.................the reason Boston's big 4 worked (don't forget Rondo) is KG, Allen and Pierce didn't need to operate in the same areas of the floor to be effective. KG had his area. so did Piecre, and Allen floated outside the 3 point line. now on the other hand Miami's big three struggled because of 2 reasons 1. Wade and Lebron both need the ball.......much like Harden and Lin, and they both operate in the same parts of the floor....it took time to work the chemistry out between them because of that. 2. because Bosh is a range shooting 4......he actually needed some of the space both Lebron and Wade need to operate......if he was a low post player he would be perfect for them. ALL of Miami's players need to be somewhere near the top of the key for their best moves. this is why they are forever looking for 3 point shooters. they need someone who can draw players away from the top of the key area so their stars can work. whenever their 3 point shooters go cold teams pack the paint to prevent drives and they struggle unless Lebron is able to go all world. THIS IS WHY LMA WILL WORK........LMA is a range shooting 4 Howard is a post 5 (he scores most of his points at the rim)......they would be much like the twin tower concept of Ralph and Dream. they don't need to be in the same areas thereby causing separation and spacing on the floor, yet each star is in their sweet spots. this means in order for a team to double Howard the help must come from a wing.....opening up the 3 pointer. Harden's game is flexible enough because of his ball handling skills to turn this combination into a deadly threesome. Howard at the basket......LMA on the opposite side about 12 feet out and Harden on the outside......I could run a million plays off that. I don't know where this point of there aren't enough shots comes from.......most teams shoot 80 times on average in a game and that doesn't even count foul where the bucket was missed. that's plenty..............................I would also add.......Miami's 3 max stars would get paid much more than our 3 max stars........Harden's max isn't equal to any of Miami's stars and neither is LMA so we wouldn't be in the same fix as them. I agree there is only so much Les is willing to exceed the tax threshold, but this combination will work if managed properly and I trust Morey is able to do that.