50 replies to this topic

[Rahat Huq]

Discuss.

[2016Champions]

We're obviously going to lose, but something I want to see McHale do is go small whenever Ibaka isn't at the 4, so use Delfino at the 4 when Collison is on the floor, and use Parsons at the 4 when Durant is at the 4. We will still lose, but as long as fight smart and hard, and next season we use everything we learn from this ass whooping to get better in the future, that's all I can ask.

 

And whenever Ibaka is at the 5, we just need to defend him the same way we defended Marc Gasol. We keep Asik at the rim, and use rotation defenders to contest Ibaka's long 2's.  

[thenit]

For us to win, we need to shot 40% from the 3s and over 50% on the field. We won't win with defence thats for sure.

[Richards]

We can't defend them. Just do a shoot out. McHale must understand that we cannot pretend and play defensive.

[Jason]

Rockets 113, Thunder 112. Harden hits the game winner as time expires.

[Richards]

We can talk about coaching, players, etc later. 

For now, we got to go with what we have in our pants.

 

Don't mess with "defense win the playoffs game". We don't have defensive game and can't develop that overnight.

To me, we have top offense in NBA when we move, pass, and share as a team and that is the way to go.

[Jason]

We can talk about coaching, players, etc later.
For now, we got to go with what we have in our pants.

Don't mess with "defense win the playoffs game". We don't have defensive game and can't develop that overnight.
To me, we have top offense in NBA when we move, pass, and share as a team and that is the way to go.

We have to play great at Both ends to win

[thejohnnygold]

I think we can, and should, focus on some defense as a shootout with the Thunder is not desirable in my estimation.

 

With Parsons doing his best to contain Durant what other match-ups can we use to try and tip the scales in our favor?

 

I think that Ibaka can be contained by using our stretch 4's.  Jones and Motie can both draw Ibaka away from the basket on offense and limit his shot-blocking.  Ibaka is not the craftiest player so on defense they should be able to contest his jumpers with a modicum of success (presuming they don't get themselves out of position with needless help defense).  With Ibaka at the 5, Asik will have his hands full boxing out, but he can do it.

 

Sefolosha scares the bejeezus out of me as Harden is likely to be guarding him and he has shown the ability to consistently knock down those open threes.  I think Harden should just use the four foot rule (which I just made up) and never get further than four feet away from Sefolosha.

 

Nick Collison will abuse us as he is a very smart player and knows how to find the soft spots in a defense.  I'd like to see Asik/Smith keep a body on him at all times and not get caught ball-watching--as that is when Collison is able to do his damage.

 

Westbrook must be forced into jumpers...I'd actually prefer to see Harden guarding him since he doesn't seem to want to guard the perimeter.  That works well as Westbrook driving into the lane is not good for us.  Let him tee it up from 20' out and hope for the best.

 

Reggie Jackson vs. Patrick Beverley is actually going to be one of the more exciting match-ups.  Both are lightning quick and very aggressive.  Should be lots of fun to see them go head-to-head.

 

I'd like to see T-rob and T-jones get some minutes as well.  I think their athleticism is matched only by Ibaka.  If they play within themselves on offense and are hyper-active on defense they can contribute solid minutes disrupting plays and fighting for rebounds.

 

I also think D-Mo should log some minutes working in the post on offense.  He is very capable there.  When the offense bogs down (and it will) throwing it in to him and playing inside out is a good option.  Maybe put Lin and Bev outside for shooting with Parsons and PF-X crashing the boards/cutting to the basket.  Beats the James Harden "maybe I can catch them staring at my glorious beard and sneak by for a lay-up" offensive sets.

 

Kevin Martin....almost forgot him....should be motivated against his former team and we don't bother defending the three point line....egads!

 

More thoughts to come....

[Richards]

We have to play great at Both ends to win

That is for sure. Heat didn't win the games with offense only.

I didn't want to write in long details as you all are somewhat knowledgeable.

Yes we do need to play defense but defense shouldn't be our focus. Ie, we should go with offense minded rotation and plays more.

[Sir Thursday]

I think trying to put a stretch 4 lineup out quite a bit is the way to go. In last year's playoffs that was how the Heat were able to cut the Thunder apart - in the face of the Lebron-as-PF lineups they wheeled out the Thunder kept both Perkins and Ibaka in the game and paid the price. Unfortunately, without Patterson and Morris we don't really have enough depth in that department to do it with any great consistency. An in form Motiejunas would be great, but I'm not sure McHale will trust him to play significant minutes given how poorly he's been playing recently.

 

Delfino at PF? It worked last time . But seriously, I think this is one of the rare teams it makes sense to roll it out against - none of the Thunder's PFs really have a post game (Ibaka is more of a pick-and-pop kind of guy and Collison is strictly a dirty-work player on offense) so the only area we'd really be giving things up potentially is in rebounding.

 

ST

[Steven]

Harden goes for 50. Rockets win in 6. Sam Presti is fired before the draft.

[feelingsupersonic]

Nice one Steven. I was anticipating your prediction. Honestly I thought you might chime in when Richards made the "go with what is in our pants" comment. Not sure about that analogy but I think I get it.

[Red94]

New post: Previewing Rockets/Thunder: The Chaos Principle and '3rd and long'
By: rahat huq

It all starts tomorrow.  The matchup for which the national media had been begging.  If the Rockets somehow pull it off, by some act of divine intervention, it would surely be the greatest upset in NBA history.  What distinguishes this from Golden State over Dallas (currently considered the greatest upset) is the storyline element of the banished son returning to conquer and reclaim disinherited lands.  Or something like that.

In my mind, there are only a few ways this series can play out.  If Houston wins game 1, either Houston or Oklahoma City will win in 7.  If Oklahoma City wins game 1, Houston's only chance at winning a game in the series is in Game 3, and the Thunder will win the series in either 4 or 5 games.  Thus, there is only one scenario by which Houston can win this series.  Note that this analysis was in no way based on any relevant mathematical data and was largely pulled out of my ass and thought up in the shower this morning.



This is basically the football equivalent of '3rd and long.'  For those of you unfamiliar with football, '3rd and long' is a scenario which, when the Houston Texans are on 3rd down and in need of over 20 yards to reach the 1st down marker, essentially calls for Matt Schaub to hand the ball off to his running back  for a gain of like five inches.  The team then punts the ball on the next possession.  This is a set of events which should be avoided in all aspects of life.



When the odds are stacked against you, to succeed, you can't play it safe.  You must introduce chaos and random variables to improve your chances at winning.  In example, Oklahoma City, by any evaluative measure, is a far, far, far better team than the Houston Rockets.  If the two teams were to play 10 times, with no variables (ie: playing the same way they played in the regular season) the probability would hold that the Thunder would win a majority, based on the historical data available (ie: everything that just happened over the last 82 games).  Thus, the logic would bear that the Rockets, to increase their odds at winning, would increase variables to escape the set probability.  Again, doing what's expected has already proven to be inferior and will bear out a predictable outcome.  (Through this, we can also hereby conclude that because this is what the logic holds, Kevin McHale will do the complete opposite.  I kid, I kid.  I won't go there for today.)

How can the Rockets introduce variables?  Well, for one, they can shoot more 3's.  By intrinsic nature, an inordinate volume of 3's always give the inferior opponent a greater chance against his counterpart just due to the greater expected value of each shot, in comparison to 2 pointers.  But this is obvious - they'll probably do this.  What else can they do?

1. They can gamble for more steals.  If they play it safe, and play their game, they can't beat the Thunder.  The Thunder on their game are a better team than the Rockets on their game.
   
2. They can full-court press: If I were Houston, I would manufacture the minutes to where every one of Beverley's minutes is against Westbrook, and then I would have Beverley trap Westbrook fullcourt the entire time.  I don't expect this to happen.
   
3. I would only bench Lin when Westbrook is on the court (ie: if Westbrook is on the bench, Lin should never be on the bench.)  This has the effect of, aside from pitting Beverley's minutes against Westbrook's, giving Lin as many repetitions against inferior defenders.  Lin's opportunities must be maximized.  This too is something I have no expectation of the coaching staff doing.
   

Jeremy Lin, as the only player other than Harden on this team who can create his own shot, is the key to the Rockets' chances.  Asik and Parsons will likely give you what you are expecting.  Harden will probably average 30 and could be efficient but may also not be.  The rookies and Greg Smith, aside from an emotional Game 3, will most likely provide very little.  Delfino and Garcia I think will explode in at least one of the home games.  There will be ISOs in close games.  And there will be tons and tons of smallball, particularly because a) the Thunder do not have a lowpost scorer and b) as aforementioned, it is highly likely that the rookies will provide nothing.  (In fact, as I type this, I'd almost consider ditching everything and starting Delfino at power forward with Garcia as his backup and just tossing aside the rookies altogether.  That adds more chaos.)

In any event, we forget that in the one game in which the Rockets beat the Thunder, while Harden had 46, Lin had 29.  In fact, when Lin plays well, the Rockets almost always win.  If the Rockets are going to even have any chance in hell of winning this series, there will almost have to be sustained spurts of Linsanity.  He will have to be given freedom to operate.  However, aside from what we saw in the regular season, there is close to no chance of said freedom being given, simply due to the fact that, while logic may dictate otherwise during underdog settings, coaches tend to become even more conservative in the postseason. (More on this below).  In essence, they need to get Lin going but I don't expect it to happen.

The upside to this is that Beverley, a great defender, will get plenty of time against Westbrook.  Of course, this ignores the fact that Lin, against conventional wisdom, is actually a more than capable defender, having forced Westbrook into 41% shooting and almost 5 turnovers per game in their head to head meetings.

Explanation: As explained, the logic holds that the best chance at winning would be to avoid the norms and go off cue.  But conversely, coaches typically do the opposite and become even more conservative.  This is largely due to the overconfidence bias whereby the actor holds an irrational belief in his abilities.  Coaches think that to win, they have to play the perfect game, and by extension, they think that there is a greater chance of their team playing the perfect game than winning by changing everything up.

Case in point: the Indiana game at Toyota Center.  Harden was completely bottled up by Paul George, the offense was stagnant, and the team was down but not out.  Instead of bringing in Lin, the only other player that can create a shot, McHale stuck with Beverley and continued feeding Harden.  His rationale was likely that "we have a better chance of doing a good job of what we do than succeeding by doing something different."  I disagree with this thinking, but I digress as we've already beaten this point to death.

I actually give the Rockets a 50% chance to win Game 1.  We'll see what happens after that, but I think the Thunder will come out sleeping and Harden will come out absolutely pissed.  If that's enough to sustain the team for 48 minutes will be up to how the other factors bear out.

 

 

[Jason]

Lin has to bee spectacular for us to have a chance

[Richards]

You knew very well that our coaches did not have any creativity. Very conventional coach with slow to react the situation. I agreed with most of Rahat but here are my thoughts.

 

who should we try to contain: Durant or Westbrook. I chose Westbrook as he was easier to contain and very likely to commit mistakes when frustrated.

 

How should we contain, a few options though:

- put Bev on Westbrook, but this will take away Lin attacking and points, Wesbrook will score no matter what

- Put Lin on Westbrook, Lin may not be as good as Bev in defending but he had very respectable results against Westbrook

- put AB on Westbrook, maybe the worse idea

 

How should we attack? Here are options:

- play our own style but must move/share the ball (remember we won this way before)

- please defensive game (very likely game plan from coaches but this is not better than digging your own .....)

- shoot 3 (I did not like this idea first, but if we put a good 3, let say 33%, chance is higher than any other method)

[thejohnnygold]

Here's an idea....be it good or bad...

 

Start Lin, Harden, and Beverley together with Parsons and Asik.  This gives us the stretch 4 we desire while giving us some decent D.

 

Harden takes Westbrook and just lags off daring him to shoot over the top.  Meanwhile, Beverley takes Kevin Martin and basically takes him out of the equation.  Lin can play Sefolosha fairly well as long as he respects his 3 pt. shot.  Parsons tries to slow down Durant and Asik grabs all the rebounds.  It could effectively turn the Thunder into Durant/Westbrook shooting long 2's and 3's with little to no help from elsewhere.

 

On offense, we've got 4 3-pt shooters, 4 guys who can dribble, drive, and kick or finish, and 3 solid rebounders.  I wouldn't run it the whole game, but as a change of pace I think we could get some nice momentum swings from this line up.

 

I think it would go bad fast if OKC went with Perkins and Ibaka as we only have the one big (Asik) to defend inside and they would effectively destroy us....but if they matched us with small-ball I like our chances.

 

Also, call me crazy, but I have this weird notion that Beverley could effectively guard Durant.  He is so quick and his hands are so fast that Durant wouldn't be able to get around him and the notion of dribbling would become a nightmare as Beverley would pick his pocket time and again....This would effectively reduce Durant to a spot-up shooter (which he is still good at, but I'll take that over the alternative)...if he posts up, we would have to double team, but Parsons and Asik would be available for that.

 

One thing is certain--the status quo isn't going to get it done.

[2016Champions]

We have a chance to win a game or two if they play small-ball with Durant at the 4, otherwise Ibaka at the 4 won't allow us to use Parsons at the 4. 

[DrewinAbilene]

I think we have a decent chance to steal the first or second game. If we do that, all bets are off. I know they're considered a juggernaut, but I'm confident that if we don't go down 2-0, we can not only give them a good scare, but maybe even steal the series.

[feelingsupersonic]

I like the idea of having Harden, Lin and Beverley in together and randomly throwing some full court press looks to disrupt and frustrate Westbrook. The question is if you go small do you want Ibaka to take extra shots in an attempt to exploit a mismatch which in turn takes shots away from Durant and Westbrook thus disrupting their offense? Also do you designate an expendable big to go in and foul the OKC bigs and wings taking it into the paint early on to set the tone/hit them in the mouth first while also gauging how the referees will call the game?

Also I have a fear that Asik might get into foul trouble in two or three games, how can that be averted?

And one more thing I was wondering what y'all thought, if we are in a blow out and it's nearing the end of the third do you throw some rookies from the end of the bench or do you make the starters suffer through it till the end?

[Jason]

Ok, so I've thought it through and I really believe we will win this game. My rationale is that we've been shooing poorly and that has to turn around by now. We also have a nack for losing some that everyone thinks we should win (suns) and winning some everyone thinks we will lose (clippers, last OKC game). I also think Harden will get out of his funk and perform great against his old team. Rockets will win this game.