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[Red94]

New post: Should Daryl Morey feel the pressure to trade sooner rather than later?
By: Rahat Huq

Quote:

If Boston wants a big haul, it has to hope a potential Rondo suitor feels some unexpected desperation early in the season. Houston is under pressure to win now, and if it starts slowly, Daryl Morey might swallow hard and meet Boston in the middle. Rondo and James Harden make for an awkward fit, but talent tends to work itself out, and the Rockets are confident they can re-sign stars once they get them.

The above cited tidbit from Zach Lowe's latest at Grantland leads to a question to which I had not previously given much thought.  For Houston, this season, is the opportunity cost of waiting for "the best deal" justified?  If we assume that this roster, as currently constructed, cannot win a title, and that an upgrade somewhere is necessary, a premise with which I think most observers are in agreement, then when should Daryl Morey strike?  History tells us that Morey never settles for what he considers a bad deal.  But the changing circumstances inherent to this season are that, maybe for the first time, time is actually of the essence.  In the past, Houston was content to wait patiently, letting assets accrue, keeping an eye towards the offseason.  But now, the Rockets face uncharted waters, with Dwight Howard's prime (and impending free agency) on the clock.  Simply put, the Rockets have to make progress this season, and simply put, they took a step back this summer.

We don't know what the price is for Rajon Rondo.  But what if you could get him right now for Terrence Jones, the Pelicans pick, Nick Johnson, and another future first?  Would you move on that deal now if I told you you could have him at the deadline for just Jones and the Pelicans pick?  The dilemma here is assessing what those extra months of Rondo do for your ultimate end.  Does getting him in December (after he recovers) as opposed to February develop chemistry sufficient to push you one round further?  Is enough chemistry developed in that time span to even make the question legitimate?  You also have a 'bird in hand' proposition at play.  If you can have him now, you probably need to pull the trigger before circumstances give rise to another suitor.  Who knows if Golden State was truly being sincere on its stance regarding Klay Thompson, but if they weren't, the Warriors certainly are kicking themselves for not anticipating that Cleveland package take life in the eventual Kevin Love trade.  Houston might like its chances at Rondo this offseason, for free, but that route would represent yet another wasted season.

Daryl Morey finds himself in a unique situation this season where we might see him give up more in a deal than he otherwise would have in the past.

[Mason Khamvilay]

For whatever it's worth,  Cyberx said Morey recently made calls to inquire about Rubio and Rondo but was shot down.

[thejohnnygold]

 

Apparently, the glass is still half-empty around here.  Dwight's window.  The Summer's losses.  Wasted season.  Not good enough.

 

While I do think Rondo would work well here I cannot possibly disagree more with what is being put forth as a good plan above.  Our PF position is the weakest on the team; yet, we should sweep the legs right out from under it and trade 3 bonus assets for Rondo and all of his question marks???

 

If you are asking whether we should gamble, with more on the table, in order to stave off competition and gain more chemistry versus waiting to see how his speed has held up and if his shot is improved while giving up less--then the answer should be obvious.  Of course, I don't seem to share anything remotely close to the same alarmed view of the Rockets so that colors my vision.  I certainly don't see how taking a shoe off of one foot to cover the other is a viable solution, but what do I know?

 

If the Celts aren't willing to take a bundle of solid prospects (Johnson, Canaan, Black, Papa, Pellies pick....pick any 4) for Rondo then there is no deal to be had.

 

This team is good.  We didn't "lose" this Summer.  What we need to improve this season is not have our two main play-makers and ball-handlers pull a no-show in the playoffs.  That would be useful.  In spite of that it took two buzzer-beaters from Portland to topple us.  But yeah, we should panic, presume we aren't good enough, forget how young our guys are versus the veterans we are comparing them to, and make a rash decision based in fear of the contrived and unknown.

 

In the meantime, we can't avoid falling all over ourselves about how good Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Durant, the entire Spurs organization, and countless others are; yet, our season is a tragedy when we fail to topple these same players/teams in the playoffs.  Huh?  Where is the disconnect?  If they are so amazingly good and we covet them for our own team then why are we surprised when they perform well (especially when we don't) and beat us?  Seems like a "Duh!" moment to me....

 

By the way, every one of those players (outside of the Spurs) has failed as much as we have--zero championships (and that's all that matters, right?  No 'chips?  Why bother?  You failed!  Loser.)--At least Rondo has won a ring....Oh, what's that?  It doesn't count because he had the Big Three.  Oh, nevermind then.

 

Patrick Beverley will never be an all-time, hall of fame PG in the NBA.  However, he can most definitely be a Derek Fisher type PG that just seems to find a way to kill other teams be it with a timely defensive play, a killer bail-out three just when you think your team got a stop, or any of those other Fisher-like things we have all grown to hate.  Beverley is good enough and I believe an ideal match for Harden.

 

Morey won't break the bank trading for a PG upgrade for this reason.

[Cooper]

The trade with boston Id be more interested in is if jones doesn't make any real progress would be to pickup jeff green for cheap at the deadline.

[cointurtlemoose]

Mostly agree with Johnny. To me, the whole Rondo pursuit just seems like it's too totally predicated on the belief in the necessity of a "third star". Don't know how tied to this idea Morey actually is, but sacrificing youth and depth (the second probably being our biggest roster-related issue last year and currently) doesn't seem like the right move, especially when Rondo, even if his question marks are proved wrong, wouldn't really be a groundbreaking upgrade over Beverly. An improvement for sure, but Beverly is no schluff, and that's a sizeable "if".

 

Our window is closing, and we did somewhat whiff this summer. But we do still have time. The Rondo move would just seem a little more desperate than is justified currently.

 

That said, if we did make a move for him, I can't say I wound't get excited to see how he meshes with Harden/Howard.

[Mason Khamvilay]

A 2nd unit back-court of Beverley and Rondo intrigues me. While Rondo would start at PG, he could substitute out early then come back in when Harden sits. I don't think there's any denying that 3-man back-court rotation would be a lot stronger in the playoffs than any rotation we would have with the likes of Ish Smith, Isaiah Canaan, Nick Johnson, Jason Terry, Troy Daniels ect. 

[thejohnnygold]

Mostly agree with Johnny. To me, the whole Rondo pursuit just seems like it's too totally predicated on the belief in the necessity of a "third star". Don't know how tied to this idea Morey actually is, but sacrificing youth and depth (the second probably being our biggest roster-related issue last year and currently) doesn't seem like the right move, especially when Rondo, even if his question marks are proved wrong, wouldn't really be a groundbreaking upgrade over Beverly. An improvement for sure, but Beverly is no schluff, and that's a sizeable "if".

 

Our window is closing, and we did somewhat whiff this summer. But we do still have time. The Rondo move would just seem a little more desperate than is justified currently.

 

That said, if we did make a move for him, I can't say I wound't get excited to see how he meshes with Harden/Howard.

 

I'd like to add to this.  You say you share the notion that our window is closing.  This seems to be the view of the vast majority.  I simply don't agree.

 

First, the idea of a "window" is somewhat flawed.  It implies entitlement.  It implies that championships are won on paper and not on the court.  I don't want to ignore league-imposed rules and stipulations designed to enforce parity; however, these rules can be bent, and some even broken as long as owners are willing to pony up the money to do so--and Alexander, by ALL accounts, is willing to do so.

 

The attitude around here is so contrary to common wisdom.  We struck out this Summer on snagging a top tier free agent.  First--that guaranteed us nothing (unless you subscribe to the entitlement paradigm).  Second--there are other fish in the sea.

 

Why is that important?  James Harden is but a mere 25 years old.  It is generally agreed that he is constructed, both physically and skill-wise, to enjoy a long NBA career.  It is not out of the question to believe he will remain quite effective for another 10 years.  People seem to hang their heads in shame as if this Summer's rejections mean we aren't good enough and no one will ever love us again.  Pffffft!  Not likely.

 

Despite the media's insistence that we are an afterthought of a city and not a desirable player destination, nothing could be further from the truth.  As Houstonians, we should know better.  The players who come here all know it and can easily dispel such notions in recruiting other players.

 

Dwight, in my opinion, still has a solid 4-5 years of elite level play in him with a gradual decline after that.  During that span, I have little doubt that we won't be able to lure a quality free agent given the extremely high number of PG's and PF's in this league that are considered "stars".  Barring that, we also know Morey probably has 30 phones, each with a direct line to another team's GM so that he can try and trade for one.

 

Before moving onto potential free agents, I'd like to point out that even if we miss the alleged "Dwight Window" that still leaves 5+ years of quality Harden time.

 

Next year, Rondo, Dragic, Rudy Gay, Paul Millsap, and Monta Ellis will all be on the market and more (I'm not counting LeBron, Aldridge, or Love).  Any one of them would, theoretically, boost our team and do so without needing to surrender anymore than an end of the bench roster spot.

 

In 2016, some guy named Durant, Al Horford, Mike Conley, Ryan Anderson, and Jeff Green are all available.  Surely, one of these players between 2015-16 will look at Houston and think, "I can help put them over the top and they'll pay me handsomely to do it."  (Jeff Green I am iffy on, but lots of people like him).

 

In the meantime, Morey continues to build an unheralded core group around our two stars.  Does anyone think PG's aren't going to want to come here and rack up assists kicking it out to Daniels, Ariza, and Harden (who, believe it or not, will play off the ball more to facilitate an elite PG) or dropping it off to Howard for mega-dunks and alley-oops galore???  The answer is "yes".

 

Ryan Anderson enjoyed the best season of his career playing with Dwight.  Assuming he is healthy, Morey will be talking to his agent--let's be honest...Morey is already talking to his agent.

 

The point is this.  We've got potential studs all across the organization.  Jones, D-Mo, Daniels, Capela, and Johnson all have elite capabilities and if it "clicks" will be special players for us.  Papanikolaou and Gentile are also sleepers to become solid contributors.  We aren't a team with a bunch of re-treads who are ok players that have all reached their ceilings.  Quite the opposite.  There are lots of reason to be optimistic about our future and player development.

 

Combine all of that with Morey's deft cap management and the impending increases to come and everything is lining up beautifully.

 

Closing windows?  Hardly.  I think this window is still on the way up, not down.  More importantly, I think Morey is setting this team up to function like revolving doors do:  every time one closes a new one opens up right behind it. 

[timetodienow1234567]

Are you assuming we will be able to re-sign Dwight if we don't win a title? Because I don't think that's a given.

[Buckko]

I agree with JG however I am completely against Rondo coming to the rockets. 

[rockets best fan]

I mostly agree with you JG. panic is not a good  position to attempt a trade from. I wholeheartedly agree with you that the view (we took a step backward) is...........BACKWARD. the young players we have rising through our team have more talent accept at center than the losses we suffered. Ariza will be a better fit for our team if not also better overall player than Parsons. J-Lin's contributions are easily replaced since those contributions were minimal at best. Asik is a nice center. no way around that, but we aren't going to collapse because a player who played 20 minutes a night in a back up role only half the season and a few playoff games leaves town.  I like Rondo, but If he cost anything more than spare parts I would walk away from that deal. I see maybe the Pelicans pick, Canaan and Covington as a max type offer for a player who has extensive injury history and is currently recovering from yet another injury now. he only has 1 year on  his deal and hasn't proven to me he has recovered from his last injury prior to the one he suffers from now. Ainge is smoking crack if he believes he can get 2 first rounder and good prospects. it's time to pee in the cup  I would much rather let the early part of the season unfold and see what happens. we have some options available right now, but a wise man will pause were fools rush in. we are better than it appears most here believe. NO SOUNDING THE ALARM FROM THIS CORNER. if the right deal presents itself...........jump on it, but making deals from desperation is chasing fool's gold

[cointurtlemoose]

See what you're saying Johnny. Probably should've said the window that we currently have might be closing. And by closing, I'm not talking this year. I mean like the next 2-3 years. And we could definitely get another 'window'. (I'm stretching this window language, because I agree, it can be too simplistic)

 

I'm saying that mainly because of Howard. Generally, big men his size, with his amount of minutes behind him in his career, start having increasing injury troubles around this point in their career. Again, generally. I grant that's not really based on anything we've seen so far. But I don't think he's got another 4-5 years of his prime ahead of him. It's definitely possible though, and I would love to be wrong!

 

So, I would agree, it's not necessarily closing  

[Buckko]

Disagree greatly on health. Dwight is really just 6'10" and has a perfect body to last. Even morey says he's not on iof those true lumbering 7 footers prone to breakdown.

 

Now with this discussion of our window with dwight. Notes should be taken about how much Hakeem can instill into Dwight, and how much he expands his game through skills and technique to prolong his prime. Improving his post game, using that long talked about midrange shot, etc... 

[rockets best fan]

@Buckko

I second that buckko. counting the man out before anything happens? unless you have the exclusive use of a crystal ball who can see the future? sitting around waiting for disaster? I don't get that line of thinking. all speculation on the future is just that SPECULATION. I'm more concerned with trying to get the championship formula right this year. how about lets play this year out and see what we can get done. the NBA changes so rapidly speculating 4-5 years down the road is useless

[Buckko]

I can say in two years we'll be discussing we got the best supersub in ariza backing up Kevin Durant   

[Losthief]

I can say in two years we'll be discussing we got the best supersub in ariza backing up Kevin Durant   

 

just cause im curious, any reason you wouldn't roll out kd as your nominal 4 with Howard? Thus getting howard, kd, ariza, harden, and bev out there as your starting 5.

[rockets best fan]

@Losthief

got to admit that would be a hell of a starting five

[Mason Khamvilay]

Rockets fans of all people should know that unforseen circumstances can pre-maturely close a championship window.

[clydesmoustache]

Are you assuming we will be able to re-sign Dwight if we don't win a title? Because I don't think that's a given.

That is the only window I am worried about closing. Will dwight sign with us again if we haven't made significant moves? I don't want rondo especially not when t.jones is being considered. Read somewhere that Atlanta was quietly shopping al horford when he got hurt. I would take him in a heartbeat even with his injury cloud.

[timetodienow1234567]

Dwight can leave after next year and has proven that he doesn't care what others say and will leave if he wants to. I'm pretty sure he's opting out after next year, anyways to up his salary to around 30-35 mil per year. What's to stop him from going elsewhere?

[thejohnnygold]

Geez, from the sounds of it you'd think there were a lot of abandonment issues around here.

 

I don't worry about Dwight leaving.  He has made zero indications and he seems to be very happy here.  He has grown up a lot over the last couple of seasons and to project his future based off his past would be pure folly as he is no longer the same person he used to be.

 

Dwight opting out won't happen until 2 seasons from now and I agree it will only be to get that 5 year max deal done.  He will be 31 by then and the timing will be perfect (for him).  Houston will likely have to make a tough call, but if he is healthy why not sign him?  He is a fitness junkie and, unless his body betrays him, will be durable throughout that 5 year extension.

 

Houston has a solid organization top to bottom.  Dwight is ready to win.  He's got McHale and Olajuwon pushing him to be great both in skill and in his mind.  Check out what Olajuwon said recently:

 

 

At least one former MVP doesn’t think it should have taken a broken bone in Kevin Durant’s foot to throw the 2015 MVP race wide open.

According to Hakeem Olajuwon, Dwight Howard was already prepared to kick the door down.

 

“He’s healthy. He’s strong. He’s ready,” said Olajuwon, who won the award in 1994 when he led the Rockets to the first of their back-to-back championships. “Now it’s about having the attitude to go out every night and dominate.”

LINK

 

It is a good, short article that is worth reading.  Hakeem also talks about our roster a bit and thinks we are fine without Lin, Asik, and Parsons.

 

That quote is so important.  One, Hakeem is acknowledging that Dwight is finally healthy and that he was not 100% last season.  Two, Hakeem is getting in Dwight's head, becoming that voice, and getting him ready to walk on the court and dominate every night.  It all starts in the mind.

 

Then there is this interesting tidbit from Dwight himself:

 

 

 

Howard felt so encouraged by his workouts that he posted a video on his Instagram account last month in which he tossed a basketball off the wall of a gym and unfurled a windmill, tomahawk dunk. “I was doing those dunks and I shocked myself,” Howard said with a smile. “Here I am, 280 pounds and I’m moving, doing all this stuff I was doing when I was 240. So, even the people that I trained with this summer, they were highly impressed. I’m really happy with my progress. I’m in a lot better place mentally, physically and spiritually.”

 

...But wait.....there's more!

 

 

 

Part of Howard’s comfort comes from knowing that it is the first time in three seasons he doesn’t have to start over in a new place. His first season playing for the Rockets was a mild success in the regular season, as he and James Harden led the team to 54 wins and the fourth seed in the Western Conference.

 

....and this is something he said in response to Lillard's shot...

 

 

 

“As much life as it sucked out me, when he hit that shot, just stepping away from the game a little bit for a couple of months gave me that passion and everything I needed, that fire, to do what I needed to do to win,” Howard said. “I think it happened for a reason. If we had won that series and moved on, a lot of things that we had problems with would’ve just been swept under the rug.”

 

LINK for the above quotes

 

I can't convince anyone to not spend the next two years fretting over Dwight leaving us.  I can't promise he won't either.  I can listen and look at what is happening right here and now and see that everything is very, very good.  What's left to worry about?

 

Howard is ready to settle in and push all his chips in with Houston to get that "missing piece" for him--a championship.