574 replies to this topic

[Mason Khamvilay]

If we look at the first four years of the contract, Howard would make $3,692,371.44 more with the Lakers than he would with the Rockets. Adjusting that number for California’s state income tax, however, Howard would actually make $1,094, 342.38 more as a Rocket playing the majority of his games in a state with no income tax because he would save $4,786,713.82 in taxes.
 

Read more at http://www.hoopsworl...WPQGDL6HHiZP.99

 

Imo that extra 1 million isn't the reason Dwight will join Houston, but when you consider the 4.7 million dollar swing created by L.A. tax vs Texas tax (or lack thereof), it does help a little. 

 

The real reason Dwight will join Houston is happiness--he knows he will be happier here. We will treat him better than the way L.A. fans treated him, McHale will coach him better than D'Antoni coached him, he will have a better supporting cast here than he did in L.A. and he will win more in Houston. 

[manmythlegend]

[size=4][color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]The real reason Dwight will join Houston is happiness--he knows he will be happier here. We will treat him better than the way L.A. fans treated him, McHale will coach him better than D'Antoni coached him, he will have a better supporting cast here than he did in L.A. and he will win more in Houston.

Bingo. Not playing with Kobe is another huge plus in my opinion.

The tax thing is low lying fruit that the media like toss around as one of the primary reasons Howard would leave LA. The reality is that if it were such a huge advantage in free agency, then the uber free agents would be flocking to Texas on an annual basis. We know this is not the case.

Plus, millionaires have access to people who know how to use every loophole out there to stave off Uncle Sam. This is of course assuming that Howard doesn't have his AAU coach as his financial advisor.

If Howard comes to Houston, he will almost certainly opt out after year 3 in order to try to get that last max contract as he heads into his 30's. Then again, the last two years of a 5 year deal with LA would already be worth $52 million...if he continues to decline, he might not command such money again.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I don't know why people think he declined. He was supposed to miss the entire season because of his back surgery, but he came back 5 months early and played injured. 

[timetodienow1234567]

WHAT??? I never heard that. Then why would the lakers trade for him?

[Steven]

WHAT??? I never heard that. Then why would the lakers trade for him?

Because they got rid of Bynum and his arthritic knees. Everyone knew D12 was coming off back surgery. He busted his butt and started the season playing instead of on the inactive list. He finally got somewhat healthy around the all-star break and went for like 18 and 13 afterwards.

[Mason Khamvilay]

Gotta give Dan Fegan some credit too, he made everyone believe the surgery wasn't that serious but it really was. Here's what Dr. Klapper said on it:

 

http://www.youtube.c...QNVqr7Os#t=152s

[timetodienow1234567]

I thought he'd be out for a while, but I NEVER heard that he was supposed to miss the entire season.

[Mason Khamvilay]

Like the doctor said, typically recovery from surgery of this magnitude should sideline normal people for 9 months to a year. Dwight's just a freak who put his back on the line (literally) to help the Lakers make the playoffs--not bad for a guy with attitude problems. 

 

Here's a good article I read that made me open my eyes a little to how unfair people are being to Dwight: http://www.cbssports...-back-was-gross

 

I think that article was being very fair. It's saying Dwight is flawed, and it's saying he sucked this season, but it's also saying give the man some credit for coming back several months early from something so serious. The talk about how gross the photo of what came out of Dwight's back makes it feel more real too, which I thought was good because alot of people seem to think Dwight is Shaqtin a fool or something.

 

If his name was Derrick Rose he would be out for 2 years. 

[RollingWave]

I do question the tax thing a little though, those guys all have big time accounting firms doing their taxes and lots of charity fund and what not, I'd imagine they'd be able to negate most of the tax differences one way or another anyway. But that's besides the point.

 

Richard: read my previous post,  yes you usually don't pay 8M to a backup (though the Spur's highest paid player this year is Manu), but if you seen the difference this team (and most other teams) have when their main center is on or off the court, you'd start to question that a bit more, because 

 

A. Center tend to have the hardest time playing long minutes for many reasons

 

B. the difference tend to be MASSSIVE, as in say Indiana, they're a better team than Miami with Hibbert on, they're a lottery team with him off. Asik was also by far the most massive swing difference guy on this team .   There is a lack of quality center in the league these days, and the fall between starting to backup C talent wise is far bigger than in any other position, and is also the most difficult to negate via different lineups .  so there is a very reasonable argument to be made that a backup C is probably more important than a starting PF, if you could get one as good as Asik, you'll need to switch him up for a star caliber PF to be really worth moving him, if it's an average caliber PF coming back , I'm almost certain you're better off with Asik on the roster instead.

 

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[RollingWave]

Just to further this argument a bit.

 

Generally speaking, because of matchup issues and quality of opponents, most reserves actually have better on / off # than their starting counter parts (obviously assuming that talent difference is not TOO massive.).  this is well reflected by this year's Rockets, whom most of the quality reserves saw very good on/off number (for Example, Delfino was +6.2)  while the starters almost all were in the negative ( Harden -1.1, Parsons -2.9 , Lin -3.0)

 

But, Asik? he was +5.9 ,  the team goes from a +5-6 team to a - 1-2 team when he's off,  this is pretty huge, especially factoring in that the matchup / talent thing and it looks even grimmer , generally suggesting that this team was like a top 3-4 seed team with him on the floor and a lottery team without him.  

 

And he was only on the floor 62% of the time.  Dwight Howard, if he does come, shouldn't be expected to play THAT much more on a daily basis.

 

The difference between a solid but not great PF and piecing a season of Jones / Dmo / Smith is maybe the difference between 2-3 net points at best for 60% of the time, maybe not even that,  the difference between Asik and someone else as the main backup C is probably 6-8 net points for 40% of the time. maybe more.

[timetodienow1234567]

Unless we're moving him to get somebody to take TRob and Royce with him ang getting back picks. That would allow us to sign Smith in addition to Dwight. A starting 5 of Lin/Harden/Parsons/Smith/Howard would beat anybody

[RollingWave]

Unless we're moving him to get somebody to take TRob and Royce with him ang getting back picks. That would allow us to sign Smith in addition to Dwight. A starting 5 of Lin/Harden/Parsons/Smith/Howard would beat anybody

No we won't,  Smith , even in the most generous assumption, isn't going to be making less than 12 M next year,   you open up only 8M cap space trading Asik.

 

for 8M, none of the bigger name PF is likely to sign, not Smith, not Milsap, not West, I suppose you might have an outside chance of getting Jefferson at that range but thats bout it, the best PF your likely to get for 8M or less is actually Carl Landry who's never been a full time starter in his career.

[timetodienow1234567]

But in that scenario they are taking TRob and Royce as well

[manmythlegend]

Players decline for a variety of reasons, be it for health reasons, age, eroding skills, or a combination of those three factors. Howard declined last season primarily because he was not all the way back from his back injury (& not to mention his shoulder injury, which isn't being discussed here enough -- it IS his shooting shoulder that's hurt, after all) & played in a system where he was a distant 2nd option behind Kobe.

If his back is mostly healed by the start of next season, it's reasonable to expect him to return to his peak production levels of 20p/14r/2b. This, of course, assumes the Rockets change their style of play in order to feature Howard in the post, which may come at the detriment of production from Harden (a worthy sacrifice, btw).

I've said before that I believe he has two more seasons left of elite level performance. I sort of expect a rebound, monster season if he joins the Rockets as he will be healthier and will want to prove the doubters wrong. But past history has shown that most big men tend to decline once they hit double digit seasons. For a player like Howard, who has dominated primarily due to his supreme athletic advantage, the decline could be steep once the injuries and mileage take their eventual toll. He's already played 28000 regular and post season minutes.

[RollingWave]

But in that scenario they are taking TRob and Royce as well

No, we won't even be able to sign Dwight without trading Trob and White first,  we're aiming for having enough cap to keep both Asik and Howard in the roster so we won't have to take the risk of trading Asik and ending up with no Howard.

 

Once we get Dwight, T Rob and White would already be gone, and we would be extremely close to the cap, so trading Asik will only get you a 8.3 ish cap space, in this market, I think the guy your reasonably likely to get for that money or less is Carl Landry... the 30 year old that's never started a full year, not Josh Smith.

[rockets best fan]

first and foremost the rockets will not trade asik. he is their insurance policy. whoever they elect to move will be someone or a combination who they consider expendable. I agree with those who believe the rockets will at the very least take a look at the asik/D-12 lineup before making any decisions on asik.

 

most here refuse to accept it, but lin is a much more logical choice. guards are much easier to find than centers. for all those who believe the rockets will not pay 8.3 mil per for a backup C/PF.......take this under consideration.........the rockets do not have a big money PF or SF. the 3 people who make the most are j-lin, harden and asik. by moving lin that only leaves harden, d-12 and asik....no need to break that up at least for a year. having asik will allow the rockets to match up with teams like Memphis and san Antonio. with the young stable of PF's we would have the luxury of being able to go with either the big lineup with two 7 footers or the conventional lineup with the stretch four and still be very good at both. defense wins championships.

 

(IMO) the loss of asik is much worse than the loss of lin. we have bev and brooks until we can find someone else, but if we lose asik we lose a core piece. what if d-12 spurn us at that point. we will have moved our center with no good backup plan. that's a risk we can't take. centers who are as good as asik are hard to find. the lost of asik would set us back. even if we elect to move him at a later date it's unlikely the rockets do it before they know they already have d-12 in the bag...........bringing us back to lin. I know many of you just believe I'm just hating on lin, but not so.......he is the most logical choice. his contract alone will get the job done. that's still preserving the maximum amount of last years team while adding d-12. you may argue for asik or others to be traded depending on who you like or dislike, but there is no arguing with the logic that moving lin while preserving the rest last years team is probably our best path

[Mason Khamvilay]

Regardless of whether or not we trade T-Rob and White, we should trade Asik anyway because we need more depth at other positions. 

 

By trading Asik we also get to keep Greg Smith, we get at least one other valuable asset because Asik should demand a good price, and we will also have extra cap space to bid on a small fry free agent unless we want to keep Aaron Brooks too.

[Cooper]

I'm fairly confident millsap would be available for 8mill there doesn't seem to be a huge market for him.

[rockets best fan]

Regardless of whether or not we trade T-Rob and White, we should trade Asik anyway otherwise who do we have backing up Harden and Parsons? 

 

I say trade Asik, that way we can keep Greg Smith, we get another valuable asset because alot of teams will want Asik, and we will also have extra cap space to bid on a small fry free agent for depth (I don't want to go into the playoffs with a worn out Harden again).  

I agree with you about one thing ........we can get more for asik than lin........you know why? he has earned his contract and more, but lin has not.......the better the player the higher the bounty

[Mason Khamvilay]

I'm fairly confident millsap would be available for 8mill there doesn't seem to be a huge market for him.

He's very underrated at that price, but I believe it.