574 replies to this topic

[rockets best fan]

I think most of you know how I feel about j-lin  I have been trying to argue his value verse contract for awhile.....I'm not going to bash him, but now it makes even more since for the rockets to move him. his contract not only frees enough room to sign D-12, but also makes it possible without loosing other pieces. the rockets might be able to hold on to either brooks or delfino.....likely brooks with lin gone. whatever we get in return is a gift just as long as it doesn't land on the salary cap. you all know I don't view him as a core piece to this team. he is the one player we can loose and not be greatly affected whose contract will get the job done.......what do you think?

[Mason Khamvilay]

I think you've voiced your perspective on Jeremy Lin about 236 times on several different threads, give or take. 

[rockets best fan]

I think you've voiced your perspective on Jeremy Lin about 236 times on several different threads, give or take. 

you sure.........I thought it was only 235

[RollingWave]

Interesting, if the cap doesn't move then this makes getting Howard a little more difficult then I first thought that's for sure. we'll see how Morey maneuver this, it's well within the realm of plausibility but certainly it adds to the difficulties a bit.

 

I'm highly doubtful that we'll get Greg Smith go, as noted even if you do let him go you'll still have a cap hold on the minimum, his contract is very close to the minimum anyway and your unlikely to get a similar caliber replacement at that money.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I like Greg Smith too, but I highly doubt Morey is going to say no to signing Dwight just because he doesn't want to get rid of Greg Smith. 

[RollingWave]

yeah, but Greg Smith will also make only 400k more than the minimum cap hold next year, I'm fairly sure we won't be 400k off between getting and not getting Howard. 

 

(and also, we could just waive him and resign him immediately for the same money afterwards right? because he essentially makes the minimum for 3rd year next year. of course this hinge on no one offering him more.)

[RollingWave]

I closed the other thread to start this one as quite a few developments have occurred in these past few weeks.

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Finally, an interesting peripheral aspect to this whole thing is the debate as to what should be done with Asik once it is time for that bridge to be crossed. I am of the opinion that the two cannot play together, but I am also of the opinion that he is more valuable than Josh Smith who will soon begin to decline. Keeping Asik, even as a backup, allows for 48 minutes of elite paint protection and insurance against a Howard injury. However, Asik's trade value will never be higher, and it is probably not the best asset/value allocation to allot $8million into a 20 minute backup player.

I think the final part is important, in the 62% of the time that Asik was on the floor this year, we were a +7 team which is about the same as the Clippers / Spurs, in the 38% of the time he was off the floor, we were close to a -2 team which put us closer to the Raptors and Wolfs. no one else had nearly as much of an impact as Asik in terms of pure on and off result (the team was actually marginally better with most of the other starters off, but that's more of a reflection of garbage time.), and because he was off a rather significant portions of the time this is very important, I can't see us really going to places if we're going to play like a lottery team 40% of the time a game. Dwight Howard, limited by his back, should not be expected to play 40 too often either.

The margin to improve on the former is fairly limited, even the best team is only like a +9 to +10, and I think we'll improve there even with no personnel change if only due to growth and chemistry, however, the later part demonstrate how much have a high caliber C on the floor all the time means.

Between Howard's back and Asik's Endurance, keeping them both from playing that much more than 30 on a daily basis is probably ideal. and if that means we're a +7-8 all the time or more , that only means we're like a top 3 seed team even in this super brutal conference.

I think people need to remember that most back up C really REALLY suck, Greg Smith was actually one of the better this year in the entire league and he was brutal enough defensively that it negated most of his offensive advantages. Almost all of them are very one dimensional players (think Hasheem Thabeet.) or not very good at either

So if there's one backup spot that's almost certainly worth overpaying for , it's backup C. it's super important, and there's a huge lack of actual qualified players.

[Mason Khamvilay]

yeah, but Greg Smith will also make only 400k more than the minimum cap hold next year, I'm fairly sure we won't be 400k off between getting and not getting Howard. 

 

(and also, we could just waive him and resign him immediately for the same money afterwards right? because he essentially makes the minimum for 3rd year next year. of course this hinge on no one offering him more.)

Here's the math in exact numbers:

1.  8,374,646 Omer Asik 
2.  8,374,646 Jeremy Lin
3. 13,668,750 James Harden
4.  1,551,840 Terrence Jones
5.  1,422,720 Donatas Motiejunas
6.   926,500 Chandler Parsons
7.   788,872 Patrick Beverley
8.  490,180 minimum
9.  490,180 minimum
10.  490,180 minimum
11.  490,180 minimum
12.  490, 180 minimum

Total = $38,787,814 + Dwight = 58,058,514

 

So maybe you're right, we might be able to just squeeze Greg Smith in. But I'm not the guy CBA "experts" bow down to, Larry Coon is, and here are his exact words:

 

A team would have to get $20.5 million below the cap to afford Dwight (assuming he’s not offering any discounts). If Houston lets go of most of their non-guaranteed or team option salary (Anderson, Brooks, Delfino, Garcia, Ohlbrecht, Smith), and they find a taker for Thomas Robinson with no salary coming back, then they’d have about $19.6 million in cap room (assuming a $58.5 million cap).

http://www.hoopsworl...arry-coon-53113

 

According to his calculations I'm off by roughly 100,000 which would be the difference between whether or not we can afford Greg Smith in this scenario. Lets hope I'm right and Coon is wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it. 

[Cooper]

In reality if Dwight does want to come here I don't think a 100k is going to be the reason he doesn't.

[LashtonBryth]

Here's the math in exact numbers:

1.  8,374,646 Omer Asik 
2.  8,374,646 Jeremy Lin
3. 13,668,750 James Harden
4.  1,551,840 Terrence Jones
5.  1,422,720 Donatas Motiejunas
6.   926,500 Chandler Parsons
7.   788,872 Patrick Beverley
8.  490,180 minimum
9.  490,180 minimum
10.  490,180 minimum
11.  490,180 minimum
12.  490, 180 minimum

Total = $38,787,814 + Dwight = 58,058,514

 

So maybe you're right, we might be able to just squeeze Greg Smith in. But I'm not the guy CBA "experts" bow down to, Larry Coon is, and here are his exact words:

 

http://www.hoopsworl...arry-coon-53113

 

According to his calculations I'm off by roughly 100,000 which would be the difference between whether or not we can afford Greg Smith in this scenario. Lets hope I'm right and Coon is wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it. 

 

38,787,814 + 20,500,000 = 59,287,814, so the Rockets would be over the cap by almost 800k.  They will have to trade another of their forwards (unless they could somehow trade Royce White).

[Mario Peña]

Any reason why Les Alexander won't just pick up the tab on that $800,000 for one year and deal with it later?

[manmythlegend]

Not sure this article was cited during the discussions about Houston's cap situation, but it goes over several scenarios whereby Houston can accomodate Howard:

 

http://espn.go.com/b...d-dwight-howard

[LashtonBryth]

Any reason why Les Alexander won't just pick up the tab on that $800,000 for one year and deal with it later?

 

Houston can only go over the cap signing their own players.  They can't sign a free agent that puts them over the cap.

[thejohnnygold]

I know lots of people think Dwight is going to force a max contract, but isn't it feasible that after his experience in LA (presuming he is leaving) that he would see the value in shaving $2-$3M off that contract so that Houston can afford to put good players around him and actually build a championship team?

 

I will be disappointed if we sign Dwight to the full max.  Not because I don't think he will be worth it, but because it makes surrounding him and Harden with quality talent that much harder.  Yes, I know Morey can find talent at a flea market, but doesn't it make sense to work collectively towards a goal?  If Morey is as good as most here believe then imagine what he could do with an extra $2-$3M per year.  I hope Dwight realizes this and is willing to take a 10% pay cut.  He can earn that back in playoff stipends every year.

[Mario Peña]

Thanks LashtonBryth, and I guess the new CBA also prohibits going over through a sign and trade as well. I think I remember that as well.

I thought about that scenario as well johnnygold. Especially after LeBron took less to go to Miami maybe they can spin it to be a positive PR move for Howard. I think whatever Morey cooks up chances are it will be innovative and/or sneaky good.

[timetodienow1234567]

Agree with you FSS, except for giving Asik/Howard court time together. That's a recipe for disaster.

[manmythlegend]

I know lots of people think Dwight is going to force a max contract, but isn't it feasible that after his experience in LA (presuming he is leaving) that he would see the value in shaving $2-$3M off that contract so that Houston can afford to put good players around him and actually build a championship team?

 

I will be disappointed if we sign Dwight to the full max.  Not because I don't think he will be worth it, but because it makes surrounding him and Harden with quality talent that much harder.  Yes, I know Morey can find talent at a flea market, but doesn't it make sense to work collectively towards a goal?  If Morey is as good as most here believe then imagine what he could do with an extra $2-$3M per year.  I hope Dwight realizes this and is willing to take a 10% pay cut.  He can earn that back in playoff stipends every year.

 

The only scenario I can see this happening is if he and CP3 decide that they want to join forces, and each would be willing to take a discount. If either is going to give a discount, it's with the existing knowledge that the discount is guaranteed to bring in another elite player.

[Richards]

We must move Asik if we signed Dwight because -

 

- we can't have 8mil guy as a back up (although we love him so much)

- they might be able to play together but having two poor FT and jump shooters on court is liability during playoff

- we need money for quality backups

[Rahat Huq]

JohnnyGold: I think you will only see that sort of sacrifice from players at the very end of the line.  Even if Dwight takes less, theoretically, there's still no lock that they'd win the title, so it just doesn't make sense for him.  If there wasn't such an equalizer in terms of the finances (due to the tax issue), I don't think Houston would even be at the table, despite how much more attractive this situation is.  

[manmythlegend]

If there wasn't such an equalizer in terms of the finances (due to the tax issue), I don't think Houston would even be at the table, despite how much more attractive this situation is.  

 

I think the tax savings thing, while real, is a tad overblown.  However, it might work on someone as fragile-minded as Howard.