Feigen on Bosh, Amare

Via the Chronicle:

The way things are going we might never get a chance to find out, but the Rockets’ sign-and-trade deal would not send three veterans to the Raptors. They have the framework of a deal in place that would include two veterans, likely out of Luis Scola, Trevor Ariza and Shane Battier.

There was a report that the deal would include all three, but Ariza and Battier are due $13.7 million next season. Unless another player in addition to Bosh headed to Houston (and I’m told that is not the case) there would not be enough money in the deal for Scola to take a sign-and-trade offer. He can do better than that.

He could, however, get a rich offer from the Raptors and head that way with one Rockets veteran. It would not be two others.

I don’t think this is correct.  Assuming that Scola receives an offer around my estimate of his market value (at least $6million), because the raise would be greater than 20%, he would become a BYC player and only 50% of his new first year salary would count in trade calculations.  Given that the Rockets would only need to come within 125%+$100,000 of Bosh’s max salary, the numbers on Ariza+Scola+Battier for Bosh should work.

I checked if BYC did not come into effect for S&T deals, but they do, according to Coon:

One complication with sign-and-trade deals is that the signed player can immediately become a BYC player (see question number 75 for more information on BYC), so the player’s BYC value must be used when determining whether the trade is allowed.

So unless my understanding of the rules is incorrect, I don’t think Feigen’s basis for refuting the Y! report is accurate.

However, the greater point though is that he clearly has a source that is informing him that only 2 of the 3 players would be included – that’s all that’s important for our speculative purposes, not his basis, even if inaccurate.

In my opinion, contrary to popular sentiment, including either Scola or Ariza in a deal is good news because the inclusion of that value would most likely allow the team to preserve more coveted assets (ie: the Knicks picks) for later deals.  Ariza should be easily replaceable and Scola won’t hold much value to a lot of teams.

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I dont how the Raptors have leverage at all. The Raptors should be begging for a S&T. I mean would you let go of a superstar for nothing or would you try to get something out of it?

I dont how the Raptors have leverage at all. The Raptors should be begging for a S&T. I mean would you let go of a superstar for nothing or would you try to get something out of it?

How much leverage does Colangelo have in the S&T scenario? He has a say and would like to get the most talent back. It would come down to the highest bidder in terms the talents that the Raptors think they need. They don't need PG with Calderon and Jack so Brooks and Lowery are safe. They do need 4 to replace Bosh. I doubt they could package the 'turks' contract however much they would like to do it. Doing so would mean Colangelo has to admit to a mistake. As mentioned Rockets do have some serviceable 'cheap asset' in Budinger and Taylor in the event a bidding war does take place (Colangelo'sonly leverage). But Colangelo's leverage is diminished by what Bosh would agree to. Laker's Bynum is not a good alternative with him being hurt though it would make sense if he was healthy.

S&T is like a manage a'trois... Gotta get in bed with Toronto to get the deal done.

With amar'e going to the knicks I'd think the value of the picks go down a bit. They may not be as attractive as before. I see 1 of the pick (2011 swap) but not the 2012 as being part of the trade. The brilliance here is Morey's foresight in positioning the team for this. I think this is a done deal barring some idealistic fantasy by one of the big 3 willing to pull a Karl Malone. Money matters for Wade and Bosh. It doesn't matter as much for Lebron but the free agent season is about getting paid. Championship teams can always be built during the season by demanding trades.

Stephen,
Great point. So while Feigen is wrong about "there would not be enough money in the deal" (ignoring the BYC), it wouldn't happen b/c toronto just wouldn't do it.

You are correct. These free agents are trying to create suspense when we all know what's going on. Bosh, Wade, and Lebron are waiting for each other to see who goes where. Wade is not going back to Miami, unless Lebron goes there. When Lebron says that he is staying in Cleveland, Wade will sign with Chicago for the max allowed because he says he wants to do what's best for his family..hint, hint..most money he can get with a contender. Signing with Miami, even with Bosh will be suicide because they only have 2 people under contract, which I think is the dumbest move in NBA history because everything has to break right for Riley. In the event Lebron says that he wants to go to the Bulls, they will sign Lebron and Wade and Bosh will be an after thought. Right now, Bosh is screwing himself because Toronto has put him in a position to take a paycut, play second or third fiddle, or no fiddle at all depending on what Lebron is going to do. If he wants the max money, be "the man", be on a team that will have quality depth, and can utilize his skills in a motion offense, then he will seriously consider coming to Houston. Houston, with Yao coming back, will improve from last year, so the argument about no defense is out the window. I know, I know that many people will bring up the injury card, but how do they know that Wade or Lebron will be healthy this year or the next... His agent wants Bosh to be with either of the glamorous two, but Bosh will never get the type of attention or the endorsements he wants when either of them on the team. My advice to Bosh is to quit hugging Wade's and Lebron's nuts and establish his own legacy.

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

The problem w/a Battier,Ariza and Scola package is while the S&T of Scola works for trading purposes,the actual salary Toronto ends up paying is more than Bosh would get for a yr,pushing them way past Lux Tax.(Let's ignore whether or not Scola wants to go to Toronto.)

For S&T w/Bosh Houston needs to just kick in a little over $13mil in salary. Any 2 of Ariza,Battier and Jeffries works,w/a draft pick or two thrown in.
But that overloads Toronto at SF and seems unlikely to make Toronto happy.
I suspect the Hou package is Battier,Hill,Andersen,Alexander Johnson,cash and next yrs First. Toronto prob is asking for more-Bud for Johnson,another First,maybe Patterson.

correction: Toronto is playing hard to get on S&T.
I think the only chance Houston is going to get this S&T to work, would be 2 players, and the 2 picks - since just reading from Ford's report: "Toronto president Bryan Colangelo is taking a tough stance in trade discussions, demanding either a star player or cap space (via a trade exception) and draft picks."
Yeah, emphasis on pick(s). Who else could he be talking about!?
Everybody knows we got those two picks coming up.
Adding: "Colangelo is very reluctant to take back players like Bulls forward Luol Deng or Heat forward Michael Beasley as part of any deal, complicating sign-and-trade options."
Yeah, complicating things for Wade and Bron, since Toronto clearly doesn't like anything they would want to offer. So, it seems Houston actually does stand a chance, but I'm getting the impression that Houston has to act fast if they want Bosh.
So, should Houston also give up the 2 picks? Because that seems to be what our deal ultimately hinges on.

Well, with a recent report stating Toronto isn't going to do a S&T, that pretty much blows it for Houston doesn't it?

How much leverage does Colangelo have in the S&T scenario? He has a say and would like to get the most talent back. It would come down to the highest bidder in terms the talents that the Raptors think they need. They don't need PG with Calderon and Jack so Brooks and Lowery are safe. They do need 4 to replace Bosh. I doubt they could package the 'turks' contract however much they would like to do it. Doing so would mean Colangelo has to admit to a mistake. As mentioned Rockets do have some serviceable 'cheap asset' in Budinger and Taylor in the event a bidding war does take place (Colangelo'sonly leverage). But Colangelo's leverage is diminished by what Bosh would agree to. Laker's Bynum is not a good alternative with him being hurt though it would make sense if he was healthy.

S&T is like a manage a'trois... Gotta get in bed with Toronto to get the deal done.

With amar'e going to the knicks I'd think the value of the picks go down a bit. They may not be as attractive as before. I see 1 of the pick (2011 swap) but not the 2012 as being part of the trade. The brilliance here is Morey's foresight in positioning the team for this. I think this is a done deal barring some idealistic fantasy by one of the big 3 willing to pull a Karl Malone. Money matters for Wade and Bosh. It doesn't matter as much for Lebron but the free agent season is about getting paid. Championship teams can always be built during the season by demanding trades.

Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.

NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.

Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.

No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.

Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.

What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?

Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it's place. But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.

Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.

Stephen,
Great point. So while Feigen is wrong about "there would not be enough money in the deal" (ignoring the BYC), it wouldn't happen b/c toronto just wouldn't do it.

ty185,

Ariza's a great piece and I'd love to keep him. But a deal-breaker for Bosh? - no way.

bob schmidt,

Clearly posturing from the Raptors with the only leverage they have.

bob schmidt: happen, this is only the latest gambit in the high-stakes free agent game.

Theres no telling, this is worse then all the talk during the NFL Draft haha

Recent quote from j andande, "The Toronto Raptors have become increasingly disenchanted with the idea of helping Bosh obtain a maximum contract via a sign-and-trade deal, according to a league source."

Another bit of hype to spur on the posturing in my opinion. If Toronto doesn't help facilitate a S&T, they get no compensation with the loss of Bosh. That's not going to happen, this is only the latest gambit in the high-stakes free agent game.

I'll bet that the reason is that Toronto has decided on a suitable suitor, and now wants to force Bosh into a decision to go ahead... Anyone seeing this differently?

Rahat, I'm curious as to your valuation on Ariza now. I thought your stands was always "Ariza is a nice piece and was in relatively good demands but he is replaceable"?

why is it downgraded to simply "easily replaceable" now? Was there some new insights on Ariza? or you are just stressing the fact that he shouldn't be a major concern when we are talking about possibly the biggest trade for the rockets in the decade? :)

You are correct. These free agents are trying to create suspense when we all know what's going on. Bosh, Wade, and Lebron are waiting for each other to see who goes where. Wade is not going back to Miami, unless Lebron goes there. When Lebron says that he is staying in Cleveland, Wade will sign with Chicago for the max allowed because he says he wants to do what's best for his family..hint, hint..most money he can get with a contender. Signing with Miami, even with Bosh will be suicide because they only have 2 people under contract, which I think is the dumbest move in NBA history because everything has to break right for Riley. In the event Lebron says that he wants to go to the Bulls, they will sign Lebron and Wade and Bosh will be an after thought. Right now, Bosh is screwing himself because Toronto has put him in a position to take a paycut, play second or third fiddle, or no fiddle at all depending on what Lebron is going to do. If he wants the max money, be "the man", be on a team that will have quality depth, and can utilize his skills in a motion offense, then he will seriously consider coming to Houston. Houston, with Yao coming back, will improve from last year, so the argument about no defense is out the window. I know, I know that many people will bring up the injury card, but how do they know that Wade or Lebron will be healthy this year or the next... His agent wants Bosh to be with either of the glamorous two, but Bosh will never get the type of attention or the endorsements he wants when either of them on the team. My advice to Bosh is to quit hugging Wade's and Lebron's nuts and establish his own legacy.

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

RFWC: Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?
Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it’s place.But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.    

As much as I love Battier and Scola, I would do this deal in a heartbeat. Ariza sucks anyway so I would be happy to see him go. That line up would be sick. Yao, Bosh, K-Mart, Brooks and I assume Budinger would start. Plus re-aign Lowry to back up Brooks with Jordan Hill, Chuck Hayes, Mike Harris, Jermaine Taylor and our Draft pick Patterson on the bench. That would be a good team.

The problem w/a Battier,Ariza and Scola package is while the S&T of Scola works for trading purposes,the actual salary Toronto ends up paying is more than Bosh would get for a yr,pushing them way past Lux Tax.(Let's ignore whether or not Scola wants to go to Toronto.)

For S&T w/Bosh Houston needs to just kick in a little over $13mil in salary. Any 2 of Ariza,Battier and Jeffries works,w/a draft pick or two thrown in.
But that overloads Toronto at SF and seems unlikely to make Toronto happy.
I suspect the Hou package is Battier,Hill,Andersen,Alexander Johnson,cash and next yrs First. Toronto prob is asking for more-Bud for Johnson,another First,maybe Patterson.

i hate feigan, analysis is not his forte, he should just stick to reporting.

correction: Toronto is playing hard to get on S&T.
I think the only chance Houston is going to get this S&T to work, would be 2 players, and the 2 picks - since just reading from Ford's report: "Toronto president Bryan Colangelo is taking a tough stance in trade discussions, demanding either a star player or cap space (via a trade exception) and draft picks."
Yeah, emphasis on pick(s). Who else could he be talking about!?
Everybody knows we got those two picks coming up.
Adding: "Colangelo is very reluctant to take back players like Bulls forward Luol Deng or Heat forward Michael Beasley as part of any deal, complicating sign-and-trade options."
Yeah, complicating things for Wade and Bron, since Toronto clearly doesn't like anything they would want to offer. So, it seems Houston actually does stand a chance, but I'm getting the impression that Houston has to act fast if they want Bosh.
So, should Houston also give up the 2 picks? Because that seems to be what our deal ultimately hinges on.

Well, with a recent report stating Toronto isn't going to do a S&T, that pretty much blows it for Houston doesn't it?

Judging from all the smoke and max contract offers, a couple things are becoming clear.

NY is out of Bosh race. Atlanta would be happy to just keep JJohnson.

Chicago, Miami are holding out hope to land 2 of the top 3. Cleveland wants to keep lebron.

No body else is in a position like the Rockets to do a S&T.

Bosh is done looking. He knows what he wants to do.

What will be the first piece to get the other pieces rolling?

Maybe Bosh should just go ahead and announce his decision and everything will fall in it's place. But that would settle the whole thing and no one would care anymore.

Why not drag on for another week or two to get more publicity out of it.

Why the bad intel? The mistake occurred primarily because Henry Thomas, Bosh's agent, was shutting out the Rockets. -- via Clutch, http://www.clutchfans.net/news/1562/chris_bosh_hou...

so this seems to explain the comments made by Henry Thomas about "dropped something off" earlier? :)

ty185,

Ariza's a great piece and I'd love to keep him. But a deal-breaker for Bosh? - no way.

bob schmidt,

Clearly posturing from the Raptors with the only leverage they have.

bob schmidt: happen, this is only the latest gambit in the high-stakes free agent game.

Theres no telling, this is worse then all the talk during the NFL Draft haha

Recent quote from j andande, "The Toronto Raptors have become increasingly disenchanted with the idea of helping Bosh obtain a maximum contract via a sign-and-trade deal, according to a league source."

Another bit of hype to spur on the posturing in my opinion. If Toronto doesn't help facilitate a S&T, they get no compensation with the loss of Bosh. That's not going to happen, this is only the latest gambit in the high-stakes free agent game.

I'll bet that the reason is that Toronto has decided on a suitable suitor, and now wants to force Bosh into a decision to go ahead... Anyone seeing this differently?

Rahat, I'm curious as to your valuation on Ariza now. I thought your stands was always "Ariza is a nice piece and was in relatively good demands but he is replaceable"?

why is it downgraded to simply "easily replaceable" now? Was there some new insights on Ariza? or you are just stressing the fact that he shouldn't be a major concern when we are talking about possibly the biggest trade for the rockets in the decade? :)

As much as I love Battier and Scola, I would do this deal in a heartbeat. Ariza sucks anyway so I would be happy to see him go. That line up would be sick. Yao, Bosh, K-Mart, Brooks and I assume Budinger would start. Plus re-aign Lowry to back up Brooks with Jordan Hill, Chuck Hayes, Mike Harris, Jermaine Taylor and our Draft pick Patterson on the bench. That would be a good team.

i hate feigan, analysis is not his forte, he should just stick to reporting.

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