Is Dwight Howard a great player?

As is always the case when the Houston Rockets are on TNT, Charles Barkley and Shaquille O’Neal were not at a loss for words when giving their opinions on center Dwight Howard.  Shaq said that while Howard was once a great player, he now is just a good one.  Barkley, giving new meaning to the term revisionism, stated Howard never had been great.  A reader, Losthief, weighs in:

You know whats funny, i think most people and tv ‘analysts’ don’t realize Howard is only playing 34 minutes a game right now. (his least since his rookie year) And I figure this is cause of health, coaches/teams long term goals. So yes, his averages per game are similar to the down year in LAL land, but her per 36 stats are actually much closer to his last 3 Orlando years. In fact, the only thing he is really below more than a marginal statistical variance is his shotblocking. And this includes a slow start to the year for him in November scoring wise.

Per 36 min:

FG%    FT%   ORB  DRB  TRB  Steals  Blocks AST  TOV  PTS  PF

Howard (3 years orlando)     59.3     56.0    3.5     10.0   13.5   1.2      2.4      1.6    3.3    20.1   3.2

Howard (LAL)                          57.8    49.2     3.3     9.2    12.5   1.1       2.5     1.4    3.0    17.1   3.8

Howard (Rockets)                   57.5     53.2    3.7      9.6    13.3    1.0      1.9      1.9    3.3    19.0   3.8

Omer (2012-2013)                  54.1      56.2    4.0     9.9     14.0   0.7      1.3      1.1    2.5    12.2   3.3

Also, Omer also only played 30 min a game last year without a back-up center available, and 35 minutes in the playoffs, Howard plays 34 minutes a game right now and has usually averaged just under 40 min a game in the playoffs. 5 minutes of game time is a significant drop off, especially when comparing two guys whose the one who plays more minutes provides (per 36 min.) 6.8(!) more points, 0.5 a block more, 0.6 steals, 0.8 assists more while shooting a higher percentage. This is while giving up only 0.6 rebounds less and 0.8 TOV less.** Also, you would have to pay omer after next year, which he’ll demand more than 8.3 million a year, so not as much a savings moneywise over the course of the next five years as you would think versus dwight’s contract.

**(And I could argue that 2.5 TO’s is even worse for asik than dwights 3.3 TO’s as he didn’t lose them on post-ups like dwight but rather in the flow of the game (aka he turns it over more per touch (2.5 TO at a 12% usage rate to 3.8 at a 24% usage rate respectively)).

stats from here:

http://www.basketbal.../howardw01.html

http://www.basketbal…a/asikom01.html

Now, devils advocate, He’s numbers are bouyed as much by a great december as they are hurt by the slow start in November and current slump in January. If we get December dwight (or something similar) over the next couple years, comparing asik to him is fruitless. If we get November Dwight, you have a better arguement (especially with potential $ savings) as far as value per dollar, but I’d still take dwight cause you can’t keep both lin and asik moneywise going forward (after next year) if you get KLove, and Dwight plus KLove is always better than Omer or Lin plus KLove over the next 5 years in my opinion.

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  • redfaithful says 7 months ago

    ...we need a 3 and D guy and a backup center.

    Totally agree. If we had Asik and Garcia playing at the level they did in the playoffs last year we would have a 1-5 punch off the bench that no other team can match (and some can't put up to start games...). Hope they get back to play like that, and if that doesn't work let Morey do his magic and find suitable replacements.

  • rockets best fan says 7 months ago

    @JG

    I agree T-Jones is the answer at PF. the only thing he requires is time to grow up and that's happening right before our eyes. I said it before and I still believe it................we don't need a PF...........we need a 3 and D guy and a backup center. I still like the move to acquire K-Love if it's possible without giving up Harden, D-12, Parsons and T-Jones, but if one of those players must be moved to acquire him NO DEAL.I was of the mind we needed a better backup PF behind T-Jones but have come to agree with your view that D-Mo should get some spot duty there to see if it can propel his growth. his last couple of times out on the court were encouraging. I saw something in him that was absent before..........hustle. I know all young players make mistakes, but lack of effort is inexcusable to me. maybe that extended period on the bench and watching T-Jones move ahead finally lit a fire under his ass that motivated him to step up his effort. on the comparison of T-Jones and K-Love.......T-Jones still has a ways to go, but when I look at what each players salary is IMO we are getting a lot more bang for the buck in T-Jones. K-Love is better, but he also cost about eight time what T-Jones cost.............does he put up 8 times T-Jones stats?............NO. therefore there is no need to gut the team trying to acquire him. Yes he is still worth pursuing, but only if the price is right. at this point I would much rather see the Rockets pursue A-Affalo and J-Henson and I think both can be had without dismantling the core of the team.

  • thejohnnygold says 7 months ago

    Speaking of player upgrades...apparently we have upgraded to Terrence Jones 2.0 ;) which even comes with a new moniker--"Basketball Jones". Part of me likes the nickname...part of me wants something better...Like "Swoop".

    It fits his game a bit as he swoops around the court grabbing boards, dunking everywhere, and blocking shots....and he has one carved into his head. It's perfect! :D

    First, someone took the time to edit a 4 minute video of Jones' highlights from the Milwaukee game. That coast to coast move is at the very end.

    The reason I put this in the Kevin Love thread is to remind us how the grass is always greener. Go to Minnesota fan boards. Half of them want Love gone. Meanwhile, we've got this guy who is growing up right before our eyes and, if I were to make a realistic guess, is operating at about 70% of his full potential. He is going to get smarter, more comfortable, more consistent, and stronger in the next 2-3 years. Some of that will show up in the box scores, but I think most of it will appear in the win columns.

    w8YL1yP.jpg

    I don't know about you guys, but I like what I see here. That is a 16-4 record in Jones' highest scoring games. Right around the 10 point mark it starts to drop off. Even then, when he scores in double figures we are 17-7 overall. We are 9-6 when he scores under 10. He has an evolving all-around game that I think would be foolish to trade away--even for Kevin Love. Now, if it was a straight up trade...maybe--that's not a big deal. However, we all know it won't be anywhere near that for multiple reasons. Let's look at more stats.

    In games where Jones shoots 50% or better we are 15-6.

    In games with double digit rebounds we are 11-3.

    In games with at least 1 3pt made we are 9-3.

    In games with 2+ blocks we are 15-2.

    In games with 1+ steal we are 14-3.

    In games with 30+ minutes played we are 16-5.

    (all data from basketball-reference.com)

    Basically, when Jones plays well we win. His energy and success are contagious and elevate the play of the entire team. He is such a good fit for us as he thrives playing off the ball and is excellent in traffic on both ends of the court.

    I say forget Kevin "What's Not To" Love and his bloated stats. Terrence "Swoop" Jones fills it up in the stat sheet and the win column--which is what really matters.

  • feelingsupersonic says 8 months ago There are those of us who have no problem with the coaching staff as well here in this forum. There are reasons why Morey choose the coaches that the Rockets have right now and by all accounts he is quite happy with the staff.


    Sorry to be off subject here but we are discussing player upgrades, specifically Kevin Love.
  • Buckko says 8 months ago

    We've discuss the coach to death, we know.

  • pretty pleaze parsons says 8 months ago

    The biggest upgrade the Rockets can make (and must make) is in coaching. Not in pie-in-sky trades.

    Because the coaching is clearly deficient in championship caliber. And because coach salaries do not count towards the salary cap.

  • Red94 says 8 months ago New post: Is Dwight Howard a great player?
    By: rahat huq

    As is always the case when the Houston Rockets are on TNT, Charles Barkley and Shaquille O'Neal were not at a loss for words when giving their opinions on center Dwight Howard.  Shaq said that while Howard was once a great player, he now is just a good one.  Barkley, giving new meaning to the term revisionism, stated Howard never had been great.  A reader, Losthief, weighs in:

    You know whats funny, i think most people and tv 'analysts' don't realize Howard is only playing 34 minutes a game right now. (his least since his rookie year) And I figure this is cause of health, coaches/teams long term goals. So yes, his averages per game are similar to the down year in LAL land, but her per 36 stats are actually much closer to his last 3 Orlando years. In fact, the only thing he is really below more than a marginal statistical variance is his shotblocking. And this includes a slow start to the year for him in November scoring wise.

    Per 36 min:

    FG%    FT%   ORB  DRB  TRB  Steals  Blocks AST  TOV  PTS  PF

    Howard (3 years orlando)     59.3     56.0    3.5     10.0   13.5   1.2      2.4      1.6    3.3    20.1   3.2

    Howard (LAL)                          57.8    49.2     3.3     9.2    12.5   1.1       2.5     1.4    3.0    17.1   3.8

    Howard (Rockets)                   57.5     53.2    3.7      9.6    13.3    1.0      1.9      1.9    3.3    19.0   3.8

    Omer (2012-2013)                  54.1      56.2    4.0     9.9     14.0   0.7      1.3      1.1    2.5    12.2   3.3

    Also, Omer also only played 30 min a game last year without a back-up center available, and 35 minutes in the playoffs, Howard plays 34 minutes a game right now and has usually averaged just under 40 min a game in the playoffs. 5 minutes of game time is a significant drop off, especially when comparing two guys whose the one who plays more minutes provides (per 36 min.) 6.8(!) more points, 0.5 a block more, 0.6 steals, 0.8 assists more while shooting a higher percentage. This is while giving up only 0.6 rebounds less and 0.8 TOV less.** Also, you would have to pay omer after next year, which he'll demand more than 8.3 million a year, so not as much a savings moneywise over the course of the next five years as you would think versus dwight's contract.

    **(And I could argue that 2.5 TO's is even worse for asik than dwights 3.3 TO's as he didn't lose them on post-ups like dwight but rather in the flow of the game (aka he turns it over more per touch (2.5 TO at a 12% usage rate to 3.8 at a 24% usage rate respectively)).

    stats from here:

    http://www.basketbal.../howardw01.html

    http://www.basketbal...a/asikom01.html

    Now, devils advocate, He's numbers are bouyed as much by a great december as they are hurt by the slow start in November and current slump in January. If we get December dwight (or something similar) over the next couple years, comparing asik to him is fruitless. If we get November Dwight, you have a better arguement (especially with potential $ savings) as far as value per dollar, but I'd still take dwight cause you can't keep both lin and asik moneywise going forward (after next year) if you get KLove, and Dwight plus KLove is always better than Omer or Lin plus KLove over the next 5 years in my opinion.

  • Buckko says 8 months ago

    @Buckko
    BOSH??????? who is better Love or Bosh? if you said Bosh you haven't been watching basketball recently. while I will agree the gap between them isn't that great.......Love is clearly better. I like Bosh, but let's not get it twisted.............besides Bosh is a action movie hero..........the invisible man :lol:

    Invisible, ask your favorite player aldrige about invisibility or game 6 Ray Allen RBF. I never said Bosh is better, he would just fit us better along with him being much easier to get.
  • Buckko says 8 months ago I'd say asik is a far more reliable free throw shooter in the clutch (just ask Scott brooks) and the D would actually get better. Just another way he will help us when he gets back.
  • thenit says 8 months ago

    fair enough...though I remember reading when he was on orlando that that still helps the team, because it enduces the penalty for our other players, in our case harden and lin, but aggression might not correlate :D. I honestly think the best way to get rid of hack-a-big schemes is to get the 4 fouls for the bonus, then IMMEDIATELY after sub out the said big. Then just drive the ball every single time via pick a roll and back picks with your good free throw shooters. The other team still gets the short-term impact of the strategy but you make them pay long term by using the result to get an advantage later. Dunno how practical that is though.


    I agree but problem would be that we don't have Asik right now. Also I don't think mchale would sub Howard out either because of his impact on d and status on the team.
  • Losthief says 8 months ago

    Howard's fts attempts in winning games doesn't really correlate with him being aggressive. His numbers are hugely inflated when we are winning by hacking him.

    fair enough...though I remember reading when he was on orlando that that still helps the team, because it enduces the penalty for our other players, in our case harden and lin, but aggression might not correlate :D. I honestly think the best way to get rid of hack-a-big schemes is to get the 4 fouls for the bonus, then IMMEDIATELY after sub out the said big. Then just drive the ball every single time via pick a roll and back picks with your good free throw shooters. The other team still gets the short-term impact of the strategy but you make them pay long term by using the result to get an advantage later. Dunno how practical that is though.

  • Cooper says 8 months ago

    What about trading Asik/Filler for Tyreke Evans? He'd be our starting PG and play backup SF. We might have to give up Bev though.

    The Pellies do desperately need a big maybe something like that could work.
  • Cooper says 8 months ago

    @Buckko
    BOSH??????? who is better Love or Bosh? if you said Bosh you haven't been watching basketball recently. while I will agree the gap between them isn't that great.......Love is clearly better. I like Bosh, but let's not get it twisted.............besides Bosh is a action movie hero..........the invisible man :lol:

    .
    I'd take bosh just because he's used to the whole big 3 thing where as love might come in and still want to be "the guy". Plus I'd speculate bosh would be a little easier to get.
  • thenit says 8 months ago Howard's fts attempts in winning games doesn't really correlate with him being aggressive. His numbers are hugely inflated when we are winning by hacking him.
  • Losthief says 8 months ago

    I think we can all agree in reality Dwight is not getting traded away. Does anyone really believe that is realistic?

    As far as Asik goes I hope the Rockets trade him as soon as the right deal presents itself. His poor character is inexcusable in my opinion.

    It's just my opinion but I'm not real high on Love. He doesn't seem as loyal to his team (not saying he isn't) as he is committed to his statistics. Though just speculation, there are those that speculate he is positioning for rebounds before shots go up. It's nothing new but it causes me to view his numbers with some skepticism. I prefer Milsap over Love for team fit/character reasons because of course Love is the better player.

    I do really like Milsap's and Bosh's fit better than Love to be honest with the current team.

    But I also like the fact Love is only 25 years old (bosh is 29, milsap 28). Which just fits with Parsons and Harden's window. As the TNT guy said the other night, we are the 4th youngest team in the league, thats a huge advantage.

    @ johnnygold, great post, good info there. Quick numbers thing I ran before digging into it too much, our point deferential is 3.06 in the sample set you provided, our year to date point differential is 3.17. Basically the same play, so if you subscribe to the idea that point deferential better fortells future win/losses than actual record, the 9-9 record might just be a red herring of a small sample size. However, in the sample size when Howard shoots over 15 attempts we are 2-4 with a point differential of 1.0. Which would say to me as his offensive usage goes up, our team does worse.

    *we are 3-5 overall this season in games where he shoots at least the 15 attempts with a -3.75 point differenential (mostly due to the -33 indy game he only played 31 minutes in). Which says to me, Howard playing more isn't necessarily bad, howard getting a higher offensive usage rate however, is bad for us.

    Also interesting to note, we win, and we win big when Howard goes to the free throw line alot regardless of percentage (which says and backs up eye test, aggressive Howard is better Howard), AND we win alot of games when Howard shoots a high percentage on his free throws regardless of attempts. Just imagine if he ever got to shooting say 65%-70% consistentally, I honestly think we could be THE elite team with our current team and that development. Morey should find a way to fix that like hypnosis or something...anything.

    @ rbf A-Affalo would be an incrediable fit honestly, but i don't see them giving him up for less than tjones or parsons, which I don't think would be worth it.

    What do you guys think about this:

    Houston trades Asik and Brewer and 2014 1st

    Denver trades T. Mozgov (27 years old), Randy Foye (30 years old), and Wilson Chandler (26 years old).

    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=my2f24u

    I think this solves all our needs as far as I can see. I'd even throw in there choice of g smith, dmo, Omri (i think Chandler would take some of his minutes as the small ball 4) or a 2nd rounder to grease the wheels. However, this does elimate potential cap space 2 years from now, as all 3 guys have 3 year contracts.

    edit; Ahhh....i toook to long to type, johnny gold basically just said what i took a paper to say, in like 1 paragraph lol!

  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago What about trading Asik/Filler for Tyreke Evans? He'd be our starting PG and play backup SF. We might have to give up Bev though.
  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    I never said I believed in trading Dwight, just stating the possibility. However, we have had this discussion before on bringing in love would weaken our defense while limiting touches and overall scoring for other players. Basically sure we could move up from #2 to #1 offense but we would drop way out of the top 10 in Defense and kill our depth. If you want a 3rd star, I would go for unloading Lin and asik to get Bosh who wouldn't demand nearly as many touches and is a superb defender thus bumping us to championship level on both sides of the floor.

    Glad to know my post about Love's improved defense was well-received. It's right here if anyone cares to re-visit it.

    Getting back to the weird correlation between Dwight's best performances and our lousy 9-9 record in those games I think I found an answer--margin of victory. In the games where Dwight plays 34mpg or less we were 17-6 (23 total games) 8 of which were decided by single digits. In the 18 games where Dwight played extra minutes there were 11 games decided by single digits. Pretty logical really. In blowouts he is going to play less.

    This is going to throw fuel on the McHale-is-a-bad-coach fire. Of those 11 single digit games where Dwight dominated we only won 3. 11 of our 15 total losses have been by single digits. It's easy to point the finger at the coach--and I agree that he does need to shoulder some of that blame--but it has been a team effort in these losses. Poor execution has hindered us as much as anything. Experience will shift the balance of this in our favor as time goes by.

  • rockets best fan says 8 months ago

    @Buckko

    BOSH??????? who is better Love or Bosh? if you said Bosh you haven't been watching basketball recently. while I will agree the gap between them isn't that great.......Love is clearly better. I like Bosh, but let's not get it twisted.............besides Bosh is aaction moviehero..........the invisible man :lol:

  • Buckko says 8 months ago I never said I believed in trading Dwight, just stating the possibility. However, we have had this discussion before on bringing in love would weaken our defense while limiting touches and overall scoring for other players. Basically sure we could move up from #2 to #1 offense but we would drop way out of the top 10 in Defense and kill our depth. If you want a 3rd star, I would go for unloading Lin and asik to get Bosh who wouldn't demand nearly as many touches and is a superb defender thus bumping us to championship level on both sides of the floor.
  • rockets best fan says 8 months ago

    totally agree Feelingsupersonic D-12 isn't going anywhere anytime soon so discussing that is a moot point. now as for the K-Love issue I would have to disagree. he is much more than a stat stuffer. I have watched him for years and the best comparison I can make is a much better version of Scola. he is smart. he doesn't jump the highest or overwhelm his opponent with athletic ability, but he's crafty. he is an excellent passer and makes good decisions without turning the ball over. IMO the only PF's better than him are LMA and A-Davis. because his game does not depend on athletic ability so much he will remain effective for years to come. don't get me wrong I love what T-Jones is becoming right now, but if the Rockets get a chance to go for K-Love they have to jump at the chance. problem is trying to keep T-Jones and Parsons out of that deal. surely Minny will be trying to get one or possibly both away from the Rockets. if we could not keep them out of the deal I say NODEAL.we have a slight chance to get him this year if Minny continues to collapse approaching the trade dead line. however any deal we coulddowould have to involve a third team making our path to him more complicated. just like we don't want to deal Asik within the western conference I'm sure Minny feels the same way making the need for our offer to obtain him tastier than what other teams are willing to give up. that's a hard sell, but still possible. I wish making trades was as easy as playing around on the trade machine. however reality is much more complicated. I thinkour team can survive without K-Love. watching the Rockets this year so far has lead me to believe weneed toaddress two areasbefore the dead line. we need an A-Affalo type wing player to fill in behind Harden and Parsons and we need to figure out how to get Asik reengaged. if we can not get Asik reengaged trade him in a package that nets us a replacement backup center in addition to other assets. I suspect any deal we do approaching the trade dead line will involve Philly because they have just such a player in S-Hawes. if we are to get K-Love we stand a better chance of gettinghim infree agency, because we likely can't pay the price Minny is likely to be asking withoutdismantling some of what we have built. I know Morey recently made reference to us needing that third player on a championship team.......and most people seem to intrepid that statement as him saying we need a third star........I don't. I think he means we need another player who provides impact. that doesn't necessarily mean said player needs to be a star. I think what we need is A-Affalo, a reengaged Asik and good healthto make a run

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    Good post, Losthief. You inspired me to go take a look at Howard's numbers when he exceeds 34 minutes. Here is the rundown:

    K31fj8F.jpg

    Dwight's averages in these games:

    Points: 22.7

    Rebs: 13.8

    Blks: 1.8

    As previously noted by Losthief--all that has really dropped off are his block numbers. Otherwise, his numbers are pretty much as good as the year they went to the finals ('09) and his overall best year ('11). Don't forget to note those fg%'s. Only three of those 18 games have him shooting less than 50% and lots are considerably higher. His free throw percentage is also better in these games with 9 (exactly half) of them shooting above 60% and 13 games at, or above, 50%. Our record in these games: 9-9 :(.

    Also of note is there are only three upper echelon teams in that list: Portland, Golden State, and the Clippers. Our record in those games: 2-2.

    Not sure what it all means, but one could easily infer that we are better as a team when Dwight plays fewer minutes. We are 17-6 when Dwight plays 34 minutes or less. (if someone wants to comb through the games and find other correlations feel free--I am sure there are quite a few)

  • feelingsupersonic says 8 months ago I think we can all agree in reality Dwight is not getting traded away. Does anyone really believe that is realistic?

    As far as Asik goes I hope the Rockets trade him as soon as the right deal presents itself. His poor character is inexcusable in my opinion.

    It's just my opinion but I'm not real high on Love. He doesn't seem as loyal to his team (not saying he isn't) as he is committed to his statistics. Though just speculation, there are those that speculate he is positioning for rebounds before shots go up. It's nothing new but it causes me to view his numbers with some skepticism. I prefer Milsap over Love for team fit/character reasons because of course Love is the better player.
  • Cooper says 8 months ago Dwight with Love would be great. Asik with love would be overall worse than we are now because you don't have to bother guarding asik if you want to double team love.
  • Buckko says 8 months ago

    Those are interesting stats. However Asik has been the far better Defender this year, and yes you would lose Howard's ability to deter shots at the rim but you would have better Defense and defensive rebounding due to asik never leaving the floor and the best defensive rebounding in the game with love and asik. Not to mention asik would want more, but no where near 12.1 million per year more, along with keeping one of the best 6th men in lin who we can resign few a few million less and still have some change for quality role players.

  • Losthief says 8 months ago

    I wouldn't trade lin, asik, and other goodies for Love, I would trade D12 and goodies for love and move asik back to a starter.

    You know whats funny, i think most people and tv 'analysts' don't realize Howard is only playing 34 minutes a game right now. (his least since his rookie year) And I figure this is cause of health, coaches/teams long term goals. So yes, his averages per game are similar to the down year in LAL land, but her per 36 stats are actually much closer to his last 3 Orlando years. In fact, the only thing he is really below more than a marginal statistical variance is his shotblocking. And this includes a slow start to the year for him in November scoring wise.

    Per 36 min:

    FG% FT% ORB DRB TRB Steals Blocks AST TOV PTS PF

    Howard (3 years orlando) 59.3 56.0 3.5 10.0 13.5 1.2 2.4 1.6 3.3 20.1 3.2

    Howard (LAL) 57.8 49.2 3.3 9.2 12.5 1.1 2.5 1.4 3.0 17.1 3.8

    Howard (Rockets) 57.5 53.2 3.7 9.6 13.3 1.0 1.9 1.9 3.3 19.0 3.8

    Omer (2012-2013) 54.1 56.2 4.0 9.9 14.0 0.7 1.3 1.1 2.5 12.2 3.3

    Also, Omer also only played 30 min a game last year without a back-up center available, and 35 minutes in the playoffs, Howard plays 34 minutes a game right now and has usually averaged just under 40 min a game in the playoffs. 5 minutes of game time is a significant drop off, especially when comparing two guys whose the one who plays more minutes provides (per 36 min.) 6.8(!) more points, 0.5 a block more, 0.6 steals, 0.8 assists more while shooting a higher percentage. This is while giving up only 0.6 rebounds less and 0.8 TOV less.** Also, you would have to pay omer after next year, which he'll demand more than 8.3 million a year, so not as much a savings moneywise over the course of the next five years as you would think versus dwight's contract.

    **(And I could argue that 2.5 TO's is even worse for asik than dwights 3.3 TO's as he didn't lose them on post-ups like dwight but rather in the flow of the game (aka he turns it over more per touch (2.5 TO at a 12% usage rate to 3.8 at a 24% usage rate respectively)).

    stats from here:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/howardw01.html

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/asikom01.html

    Now, devils advocate, He's numbers are bouyed as much by a great december as they are hurt by the slow start in November and current slump in January. If we get December dwight (or something similar) over the next couple years, comparing asik to him is fruitless. If we get November Dwight, you have a better arguement (especially with potential $ savings) as far as value per dollar, but I'd still take dwight cause you can't keep both lin and asik moneywise going forward (after next year) if you get KLove, and Dwight plus KLove is always better than Omer or Lin plus KLove over the next 5 years in my opinion.

  • Buckko says 8 months ago

    I wouldn't trade lin, asik, and other goodies for Love, I would trade D12 and goodies for love and move asik back to a starter.

  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago Kidd was a GREAT shooter in his 30s.
  • Chichos says 8 months ago

    Tough to see Boston being involved unless Minny gives up their firstpick next year (no idea if this is even possible)and we compensate Minny with multiple firsts with minimal protection. But great trade machine work

    i havent been reading the threads, but i think this would do it

    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=lpcyhdj

    who says no to that? Boston gets the big man they want, dump some salary and make themselves worse for this coming draft (they couldnt muster any points with that lineup). boston gets a 2-way wing player and youth/potential.

    we would obviously have to give up first round pick(s) as well. not to mention we have several 2nd round picks to offer

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    If we get a pass first PG, he has to be a great jumpshooter or it kills all offensive spacing. Ex.1 Rubio Ex.2 Boston's offensive rating actually improved when rondo tore his ACL. Same thing with Wall until he develops his 3pt shot.

    We also can't rush this subject, low post passing is a lost art and our players need time to try and give them a chance to develop it before shaking things up.

    I disagree that they have to be a "great jumpshooter"--just reliable. Avery Johnson, Jason Kidd, and Derek Fisher were all reliable--not great.

    John Wall (who is pretty much out of the conversation anyways as Washington is not letting go of him) is currently shooting 31.3% from long range--not great, but given everything else it's enough and he is likely to continue improving.

    Everyone seems to have forgotten that Rondo was aware of his shooting woes and had been steadily improving his shot. I recall him making quite a few good shots before he got injured--including some clutch ones. From NBA.com: His Shot Charts. You can see his improvement from one season to the next. Here is his last season:

    F43Dd0Z.jpg

    He is a pretty solid shooter from 20' and his range is expanding. I also believe our "system" would suit him quite well. Freestyle offense is his bread and butter. He will be surrounded by scorers and finishers. I think the offense will be fine, plus he adds the benefit of high-end defense on the perimeter. I think our turnovers would decrease, our net defense will increase, and our net offense will become more efficient due to the good looks he can create for everyone.

    He is a bit like Russell Westbrook. By that I mean he bends defenses. It's not Westbrook's stellar shooting that makes him so devastating--it's his ability to force defenders to get out of position and then make the right pass. Actually, in this regard he may be better than Westbrook.

    It's all speculation until we see them on the court together and that won't be anytime soon (if ever)--it's more the idea of a player like that than Rondo himself.

    As for developing our own guys--I agree that this is entirely possible and I did allude to that earlier. Lin could certainly reach a serviceable level in this regard--I don't think he has it in him to reach that elite tier, but he doesn't need to for us to succeed.

    Getting back to Love again--a player like him can generate a similar effect if (IF!) we were to run the offense through him in a high post/low post way. I always expected Gasol and Howard to work well in this way, but it never really seemed to happen. With cutters, spot-up shooters, and finishers all around plus his own efficiency in the post I think our offense could perform quite well.

  • Incubus2803 says 8 months ago

    also, sure we would go over the cap after signing parsons this summer, but alexander isnt afraid to pay to field a winner. and that roster is something worth paying for. besides that, casspi, garcia and brooks all have options for future years. bev and smith have multiple years left. and morey is king of digging up bargains. not to mention that roster would make us a destination for the veteran ring-chasers that flock to contenders.

  • Incubus2803 says 8 months ago

    i havent been reading the threads, but i think this would do it

    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=lpcyhdj

    who says no to that? Boston gets the big man they want, dump some salary and make themselves worse for this coming draft (they couldnt muster any points with that lineup). boston gets a 2-way wing player and youth/potential.

    we would obviously have to give up first round pick(s) as well. not to mention we have several 2nd round picks to offer

  • Buckko says 8 months ago

    If we get a pass first PG, he has to be a great jumpshooter or it kills all offensive spacing. Ex.1 Rubio Ex.2 Boston's offensive rating actually improved when rondo tore his ACL. Same thing with Wall until he develops his 3pt shot.

    We also can't rush this subject, low post passing is a lost art and our players need time to try and give them a chance to develop it before shaking things up.

  • Chai says 8 months ago

    I think my general take is that if TJones can develop and provide you even 60% of what KLove does, around 12 points, 8 boards, 1.5 blocks, while expanding his range and playing team defense as well as acting as a weak side shot blocker, I would not pursue Love.

    With Harden, Dwight already on the books, and Parsons likely getting around 10mil a year, you're paying around 40 mil for 3 starters already. Love would command another 17-18 mil a year. As JG pointed out, we'll be extremely thin in other positions... and we don't have a LeBron James that can play 1-5 to cover those weaknesses. As many have mentioned, I would much rather sign a capable 3 and D player like Sefolosha (I don't think Thunder have the cap space to extend him).

  • Cooper says 8 months ago Someone who could backup both 2/3 spots seems like the most pressing need to me. Garcia and brewer can't get it done. Pg Is something to address when lins contract is up(keep him/let him go/trade whatever) and 2015 is also probably the last time we have meaningful cap space if they want to make a significant roster change without relinquishing major assets.
  • Losthief says 8 months ago

    @ jg, good posts, very informative and tks for the links

    As for the defensive weakness of the Houston Rockets, one of our biggest weaknesses is defensive rebounding. KLove would help that, bottom line. Also he would just be tjones 2.0 minus the blocks (which make tjones get out of postion and lead to fouls honestly at this point as he learns how to play TEAM defence versus one on one.). KLove grabs more boards and actually shoots from the outside extremely well and is more athletic than most think. He also weighs enough to guard true pf in the post.

    As for JLin versus rubio, if you've watched the wolves, or even read much about them, rubio's biggest weakness is an inability to finish at the rim, not his outside shooting. Anyone on our roster really good at finishing at the rim that plays point guard? Thats why Minny would be interested in Lin.

    I agree, it is a steep price to pay, but KLove is 25 years old, tjones is 22 years old, if your telling me tjones is 100% going to be at Klove's level in 3 years, then don't do it, but I would still contend even with that low probability playing out, over the course of the next 10 years (aka Harden and Howard's prime) Klove would outperform tjones (especially in the next 3-5 years that Howard will be dominant). Thats why I would make the trade.

    Also @ jg, I think a outside point guard we could look at for at least the backup spot (behind either bevelry or lin (whomever we keep out of the two) is jameer nelson. He's due 8 mil next year, but its non-guareenteed and I have a hard time believing Orlando picks that up. So if he gets cut/waived he could be a guy we get for 20 min a game who knows how to play with Howard and ball dominant wings (vince carter and hedu). I wouldn't mind picking him up as a back-up pg. Also I like him alot more than Vasquez. Vasquez is too slow laterally, which I think is part of Harden's definsive problems too, you put those two guys together I think it might get ugly.

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    LMA deserves to start over both Griffin and Love

    Yes, if ASG starters were based on on-court performance alone.

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    LMA deserves to start over both Griffin and Love

    That's fair. Can't argue one bit.

  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago LMA deserves to start over both Griffin and Love
  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    JG. Allow me to clear up what I said. I do believe Love is a skilled passer, but he wouldn't be properly utilized in the Rocket's system that relies on penetration from our attack guards.

    Even though this is off topic, we still have to mentio about how to get an elite passing and jump shooting PG who can mesh well with ball dominant harden but I did like the last game where harden didn't seem to force anything and there was much better ball movement with multiplayers controlling it.

    This presumes that the Rockets and the Coaching Staff would stubbornly refuse to adapt to the talent they have--which as McHale has both said, and shown, they would adapt.

    As far as ball-dominance goes--I don't buy it. I don't view Harden as the megalomaniac some seem to. In Harden's last season in OKC (his most efficient) he played the majority of his minutes alongside Westbrook and Durant--Yes, he spent some time leading the second unit, but compared to the rest it is a fraction of how much he played with Westbrook/Durant. (LINK).

    We all know Harden's stats from that season were excellent, but his sixth man role was slightly exaggerated. Check the minutes. He played 31.4 mpg. A similar amount to what Lin does as our "sixth man". It doesn't mean reserve player. It means reserve leader as well as part time in the starting unit.

    The point is I disagree with any assertion that Harden cannot co-exist with another ball-dominant guard. My assertion, which is backed up by the stats and the eye test, is that he is even more efficient and has the energy to play a little tougher on D when paired with a guard like this.

    Now, some will counter that he has acquired a taste for being the "alpha". Maybe. Maybe not. I think he would welcome an elite passing PG with open arms as it frees him of the burden of making the offense go while diverting some defensive attention from him.

    Bonus feature: now we have someone who can get Howard the ball properly and can set up our 3 pt. shooters properly. It's not that I dislike Lin or Beverley. It is just my view on what this team would benefit from most as far as upgrades go. Now, acquiring one is a whole different story.

    I'll probably get killed for this suggestion, but Steve Blake is a FA after this season. I've always been a fan of his game, and I think he would fit beautifully within this group.

    In 2015, Rondo (which still makes me cringe to consider, but it keeps making more and more sense) is a free agent as well as Dragic (player option). At this point, Lin is off the books (of course he may have developed to a point we want to keep him).

    My preference would be John Wall, but the Wizards wisely locked him up through 2018. Same with Chris Paul. No way they trade those guys.

    Greivis Vasquez could be let go after this season, or would be available after 2015. I'm not sold on him as I just haven't seen him play that much, but he did rack up a ton of assists last season in New Orleans.

    The bottom line is you are right that acquiring a player like this is not easy. Andre Miller has been brought up multiple times as a possibility to fill this role. That doesn't excite me very much.

    Getting back to Kevin Love--I would prefer we didn't trade for him; although, Rockets Best Fan made a compelling trade proposal the other day that wasn't too shabby. My only concern is we lose some depth--especially at point guard. Still, with Love in the fold we could dredge up a pg from somewhere that would make this work.

    Beverley, Harden, Parsons, Love, and Dwight Howard. That's practically 3/5 of the West Starting All-Star Team (if Blake Griffin wasn't more marketable than Love). Go check out the shot charts. Love and Parsons can play on the right side (where they dominate) inside/out while Howard and Harden take the left side inside/out with Bev/whoever up top. The defense simply cannot cheat and if they do they will regret it.

    Nothing against Terrence Jones, but if you can push that trade through I think you do it. One drawback is the cupboard might be a little bare once everyone's contract expires as we gave up quite a few draft picks in the process. Worry about that while you're shining your championship trophies B)

  • Buckko says 8 months ago Even though this is off topic, we still have to mentio about how to get an elite passing and jump shooting PG who can mesh well with ball dominant harden but I did like the last game where harden didn't seem to force anything and there was much better ball movement with multiplayers controlling it.
  • Chai says 8 months ago

    JG. Allow me to clear up what I said. I do believe Love is a skilled passer, but he wouldn't be properly utilized in the Rocket's system that relies on penetration from our attack guards.

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    @Chai--Adelman's system requires skilled passers--it does not make good passers out of just anybody. Love's interior passing and inside-out passing would be an improvement. Love can also be the point man on pick n rolls--he is excellent at that according to mysynergy.

    @Buccko--I know this all too well. However, I don't think any of those teams have had an "eraser" like Dwight roaming the middle. Plus, as my previous post noted--Love is actually playing defense now which means our front court would be solid.

    Also, I will repeat that I do not want this--just playing Devil's Advocate. I still contend that the only move we should make (if any) would be for an elite passing PG. Other than that we should ride the horses we've got.

  • Buckko says 8 months ago

    Love's defense has improved and any publicly available metric reflects that.

    Basketball-reference.com

    82games.com

    mysynergysports.com

    Now, I haven't watched much Minnesota basketball this season so perhaps those stats are masking something and don't reflect what is really happening on the court. With that in mind, here is Minnesota's SB Nation fan forum....quite similar to ours, actually. LINK

    They have posts boasting of the greatness of Love side by side with posts about needing to trade him. (sound familiar?) If anything were a valid reason to get Love in Rocket Red it's his passing. According to this statistical analysis, Love is the 2nd best passing non-guard in the league behind only Lebron James. The article goes on to note that his teammates convert on only 48% of his assist opportunities--which they imply is low, but I have no barometer for this.

    Either way, Love's long been known as a great passer and defenses would have a tough time doubling him with Dwight on the other side. There's a reason Nik Pekovic averages 18 points a game and it's not his post moves. Dwight would feast.

    A closing thought on the matter. Given that we have so many defensive deficiencies and there is no guarantee they will get resolved why not add Love and simply create an offensive juggernaut? (For the record, I am just playing Devil's Advocate here. I like T-Jones and would be averse to trading away our depth for Love. I would understand if Morey did it, but I'm happy with Jones.)

    Offensive juggernauts fail in the playoffs, there as been only one team to win a championship in the last decade with a D outside the top 10.

  • redfaithful says 8 months ago

    It could result from coach Adelman's system. It's a good system for an open game, so when it clicks his teams roll to big victories. However, if the defense takes away enough (as happens towards the end of close games), it totally fails. That's why Minnesota has large margin wins and low margin losses, with the bottom line being under .500.

  • Chai says 8 months ago

    I would disagree that everyone else on that team is mediocore. Pekovic is a solid if unspectacular starting centre. Martin while aging is still a dangerous threat from beyond the arc. Rubio can't shoot, but his defense is above average and he's still a gifted passer. Corey Brewer is your standard 3 and D wing.

    Maybe it's just me but I really don't see how Minnesota cannot get above .500. On paper, one would assume that they'd at least be better than the Denver Nuggets and on par with the Mavs.

    Also... with Love's passing, I don't think Love will be as great as a passer in the Rockets system. Rick Adelman employs a motion offense where it emphasizes passing from the bigs (Webber, Divac, Miller). I have no doubt that Love is a great passer, but it wouldn't be fully utilized in our current iso-Harden, post up Dwight, and PnR system.

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    Love's defense has improved and any publicly available metric reflects that.

    Basketball-reference.com

    82games.com

    mysynergysports.com

    Now, I haven't watched much Minnesota basketball this season so perhaps those stats are masking something and don't reflect what is really happening on the court. With that in mind, here is Minnesota's SB Nation fan forum....quite similar to ours, actually. LINK

    They have posts boasting of the greatness of Love side by side with posts about needing to trade him. (sound familiar?) If anything were a valid reason to get Love in Rocket Red it's his passing. According to this statistical analysis, Love is the 2nd best passing non-guard in the league behind only Lebron James. The article goes on to note that his teammates convert on only 48% of his assist opportunities--which they imply is low, but I have no barometer for this.

    Either way, Love's long been known as a great passer and defenses would have a tough time doubling him with Dwight on the other side. There's a reason Nik Pekovic averages 18 points a game and it's not his post moves. Dwight would feast.

    A closing thought on the matter. Given that we have so many defensive deficiencies and there is no guarantee they will get resolved why not add Love and simply create an offensive juggernaut? (For the record, I am just playing Devil's Advocate here. I like T-Jones and would be averse to trading away our depth for Love. I would understand if Morey did it, but I'm happy with Jones.)

  • Buckko says 8 months ago

    It all has to do with team play, not a solo player Chai. The only time the T-Wolves have a big win is when Love has an ungodly good game. Everyone else on that team is just mediocre.

    The problem about Love and the rockets though is you would have a big 3 where 2/3 of it play terrible defense while the Miami big 3 all can play great D. It just wouldn't be a great combination, we're already #2 in offense so there is only so much that can improve us on that end but weakening our D further won't help us at all.

  • Chai says 8 months ago Until he can get his team a playoff spot. I'll maintain my stance that he's nothing more than a stat padding star rather than an all star. I'm not saying he's a bad player. In fact, I agree that if he's your second option, your team would be amazing. But I don't imagine Howard came to Houston to become a 3rd option on offense
  • bboley24 says 8 months ago

    I agree that TJONES is 20% of Love's talent but I get your point.

    Love isn't overrated by any stretch. The guy does work.

  • Cooper says 8 months ago Love isn't Lebron or KD by any means or even like Paul where if he'd on your team your making the playoffs and have a good chance to go far. but if he's your second of third best player you have a really good team. Jones isn't even half that good right now and if he becomes that good they will have to give him a large extension anyways so I don't think money is an issue. If you can get love without trading Harden, Howard, or Parsons you have to do it. Normally even parsons wouldn't be untouchable but there's zero depth behind him so they'd at least need a solid 3 back.
  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago 80%? Maybe 20%.
  • Chai says 8 months ago

    I'm one of those people that believe Love is overrated... There should be no way a player with his stats cannot carry his team above .500... It's not like they have a bad coach or a bad team. At this point in time, I would rather have TJones at a fraction of the cost providing 80% of Love will bring to the table as a 2nd/3rd option on the team on offense. I also think Jones has a much higher ceiling compared to Love on the defensive end.

  • rockets best fan says 8 months ago

    I know some of you think it's impossible to pull this trade off...............I don't. Yes it will take a third team, but I feel we have the assets to get it done if Minny blinks. here is a trade idea I have been thinking on

    Minny sends K-Love to Houston

    Houston sends Lin + 2014 and 2016 first roundersto Minny and Asik and D-Mo to Philly along with the 2 Portland 2nd rounders we own

    Philly sends Young + N.O 2014 first rounder they ownto Minny

    why Philly does this: they acquire a franchise center, a good prospect in D-Mo and two 2nd rounder to reel in more young players. we already know they are interested in Asik and I think would jump on the chance to grab D-Mo as well.

    why Minny does this: they have come to the conclusion they are not making the playoffs and trying to keep K-Love is futile. Minny owe their draft pick to Phoenix this year, but it is lottery protected. the trade deadline is Feb 20so they will have a pretty good picture of their chances by then. if they elect to tank they will have their own pick back, a pick from N.O and a pick from Houston in this years draft + Houston's 2016 first rounder and T-Young and J-Lin.........combined with what they have left that's a good start on a rebuild. I think Rubio's days in Minny are numbered. I been watching his stats. he has not shown the progress Minny was hoping for.

    why Houston does this: K-Love will resolve our chemistry issues

    now Minny may feel their are better offers on the table, but I believe what we can put on the table at least deserves consideration. a lot will depend on how K-Love feels whenever the decision to part ways is made. he may chase away teams by letting them know they have no chance to resign him. if that situation happens we become the better offer because we can still afford to give this up in a rental situation

  • Incubus2803 says 8 months ago Omer Asik and d-mo to boston
    Terrence jones to minny.
    Boston sends jeff green and Brandon bass to minny.
    Kevin love to Houston.
    With picks exchanged all around to balance things out. But that's the salary
  • Cooper says 8 months ago Could play Rubio and Bledsoe together. Phx plays him with dragic. And Bledsoe is a restricted FA this summer so they could sign him long term.
  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    you miss what I'm saying, I'm saying that the Suns trade that package to the Wolfs for Love, and the Wolfs extend Bledsoe etc.

    That way, they tank really hard this year, and have Bledsoe + couple of first rounder (one likely pretty high) next year.

    @lostthief : yeah your right, Lin + Jones works, thought Love was a little bit higher than that money.


    OK, sorry about that.

    Still, unless the T-Wolves are ready to bail on Ricky Rubio as their PG of the future, I just don't see this.

    For one, the T-Wolves are still in the hunt for a playoff spot this season which they need to keep Kevin Love in the fold going forward.

    Secondly, as everyone now knows, Bledsoe is probably (although not yet official) done for this season so Bledsoe isn't going to have any (or much) impact going forward this season.

    Lastly, are the Wolves ready to start decimating their youngsters and future draft picks for a 1-year rental OR commit to a major contract with Bledsoe when Love himself (MORE IMPORTANTLY) is due a major contract commitment at the end of next year?

    I don't know, I just don't see it but I've been wrong before so let's just see what happens.....
  • RollingWave says 8 months ago

    you miss what I'm saying, I'm saying that the Suns trade that package to the Wolfs for Love, and the Wolfs extend Bledsoe etc.

    That way, they tank really hard this year, and have Bledsoe + couple of first rounder (one likely pretty high) next year.

    @lostthief : yeah your right, Lin + Jones works, thought Love was a little bit higher than that money.

  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    For the money to work, you have to either move both Asik and Lin, or one of Harden / Howard to have any chance.

    In short, it's rather unlikely to happen. The Rockets current roster lines up poorly with the Wolfs. Then again, it's not entirely clear who lines up well with them (the Suns I guess, but why blowup a good thing ), and if they're trading Love might as well be a huge firesale.

    Like, if it's Okafor expiring + Bledsoe + picks, it be a considerably better package and fit than what the Rockets could do at this point.


    Eric Bledsoe's season is likely over, so the Rockets trading for Bledsoe this season is over, too.

    And as I have mentioned in prior topics and posts, Bledsoe is going to command a huge contract next season as he is an unrestricted free agent. Just not possible for the Rockets to pay both Chandler Parsons and Eric Bledsoe prior to the start of next season. So the hopes of the Rockets obtaining Eric Bledsoe for the long run is just an absolute pipe dream in my opinion. Not to mention the fact that it would be ridiculous to think the Rockets would even seriously consider trading Asik and Lin for a short-term rental of Bledsoe even if he happened to be fully healthy for the remainder of this season.
  • Buckko says 8 months ago

    What we need is SG/SF perimeter defense and depth.

  • redfaithful says 8 months ago

    Hard to see this happen in mid-season, it would be much more relevant in the summer if Minny's season ends badly. Again.

  • Losthief says 8 months ago

    For the money to work, you have to either move both Asik and Lin, or one of Harden / Howard to have any chance.

    Assuming we're not doing the later. it is tricky on how a Asik and Lin combo would work for the Wolfs, who have Pek and Rubio. even if you like the Rockets duo more, you'd have to somehow move the Wolfs duo to make this work, which would mean a very complex 3 way has to be in the books somehow.

    In short, it's rather unlikely to happen. The Rockets current roster lines up poorly with the Wolfs. Then again, it's not entirely clear who lines up well with them (the Suns I guess, but why blowup a good thing ), and if they're trading Love might as well be a huge firesale.

    Like, if it's Okafor expiring + Bledsoe + picks, it be a considerably better package and fit than what the Rockets could do at this point.

    i actually agree its not enough...but fyi the money works according to this...dunno how though...maybe espn is off? Isn't it 125 % plus 100,000?

    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ka75xgq

    but yeah...i don't think we have enough without including parsons...which i think would defeat the whole purpose of improving our team. Alas, maybe Love would want to only come here (jk jk), and for the 8 seed comment later...the point wasn't where the wolves are at, its where love is at with his teammates. If he's not gonna re-sign they have to trade him, but yeah i'd take Okafor bledsoe and picks, or griffin, or some others over anything we got as minny. I mean the guy is 3rd in per...i'd trade griffin for him as LAC.

  • Steven says 8 months ago Casspi's reaction is priceless.
  • bboley24 says 8 months ago

    Did you guys scroll too fast? I'm pretty sure ive covered all of the bases here.

  • rm90025 says 8 months ago

    With Bledsoe's injury, Minnesota has a good shot at cracking the West's top 8. Love isn't going anywhere.

  • Cooper says 8 months ago Don't have the pieces to pull in a guy like klove.
  • bboley24 says 8 months ago

    Don't need another big that can shoot threes. We got it.

    60e3448e-7cf5-4163-8e27-d818809bb5ae.gif

  • RollingWave says 8 months ago

    For the money to work, you have to either move both Asik and Lin, or one of Harden / Howard to have any chance.

    Assuming we're not doing the later. it is tricky on how a Asik and Lin combo would work for the Wolfs, who have Pek and Rubio. even if you like the Rockets duo more, you'd have to somehow move the Wolfs duo to make this work, which would mean a very complex 3 way has to be in the books somehow.

    In short, it's rather unlikely to happen. The Rockets current roster lines up poorly with the Wolfs. Then again, it's not entirely clear who lines up well with them (the Suns I guess, but why blowup a good thing ), and if they're trading Love might as well be a huge firesale.

    Like, if it's Okafor expiring + Bledsoe + picks, it be a considerably better package and fit than what the Rockets could do at this point.