As for the Rockets, nothing much seems to be going on. Except for this momentous late season run encapsulated perfectly by GM Daryl Morey via Twitter via Rahat:

since 2/24 we have been 11-4 w/the best offense & 11th best defense (5th off/23rd def prior to 2/24)

This was no more evident than during the Boston Beatdown a couple Fridays ago at the Toyota Center, which I had the pleasure of watching in person next to my friend Kevin.

Kevin is from Brownsville. Kevin is an Astros and Cowboys fan as is natural for a Texan with professional sporting interest raised in a town outside of the 35-45-10 Triangle (a triangle with only 90 degrees! high school math jokes are the best).

However, for some asinine reason (bloodlines – his father is from Beantown), Kevin is a die hard Celtics fan. Case in point, to the Toyota Center he attired himself in his father’s original 1986 Celtics’ NBA Championship hat (which was won over what should have been the beginning of the Rockets’ Twin Tower dynasty) and early 1990′s design Celtics Polo – probably picked from the page adjacent to the Umbro page in the Jock Jams clothiers catalog.

Normally, I would have been more than mildly upset that I paid money to watch a supposed title contender (the Celtics) quit on the game as soon as the lead approached double digits. Given my friend’s obnoxious display of contrarian partisanship, I took extra relish in the 16 point drubbing.

The body language of the Celtics was especially pleasing: utterly hopeless. The lack of any fire or fight was encapsulated succinctly by Kevin: “They just gave up.” And they did.

Paul Pierce stopped taking the ball to the rim in the 2nd quarter, and eventually stopped looking at the basket entirely while shooting 20 foot fade-aways. Kevin Garnett did some barking but Chuck Hayes read his moves with the ease of a Bernstein Bears coloring book. Troy Murphy played like Brad Lohaus in the original NBA Jam, only everyone else was playing in NBA 2K11 on XBox 360.  Glen Davis was the only player in green to seem to care, but he got tossed into the crowd by Chuck Hayes for his effort.

Its needless to go on any further about why the Celtics appear to cooked, because trading Kendrick Perkins was akin to bathing in butter:

Jerry: Kramer!

Kramer: Oh, man. I think I cooked myself.

Jerry: Look at your skin.

Kramer: Stick a fork in me, Jerry. I’m done.

Courtesy of NBA.com, here is a list of the transactions in the month of March:

Monday, March 28
• Charlotte signed guard Garrett Temple for the remainder of the season.

Sunday, March 27
• Washington signed guard/forward Othyus Jeffers to a 10-day contract.

Saturday, March 26
• New Orleans signed forward Patrick Ewing Jr. to a 10-day contract.

Friday, March 25
• San Antonio signed forward De’Sean Butler and placed him on the inactive list.

Wednesday, March 23
• Houston signed forward Mike Harris to a 10-day contract.
• New Jersey recalled guard Ben Uzoh from Springfield (NBA D-League).

Monday, March 21
• Houston assigned center Hasheem Thabeet to Rio Grande Valley (NBA D-League).

Sunday, March 20
• Chicago signed guard John Lucas III and guard Jannero Pargo

Saturday, March 19
• Sacramento waived guard Luther Head

Thursday, March 17
• Charlotte signed guard Garrett Temple to a second 10-day contract.
• Golden State reassigned guard Jeremy Lin to Reno (NBA D-League).
• New Jersey named Andrew Schwartz vice president of partnership sales. Promoted Josh Pruss to vice president of partnership marketing.
• Washington signed guard-forward Othyus Jeffers to a 10-day contract.

Wednesday, March 16
• San Antonio signed guard/forward Danny Green.

Tuesday, March 15
• New Jersey assigned guard Ben Uzoh to Springfield (NBA D-League). Named Dan Lefton executive director of ticket sales.

Monday, March 14
• Portland signed center Chris Johnson for the rest of the season.

Wednesday, March 9
• Denver signed guard Jerel McNeal to a 10-day contract.
• Toronto assigned center Solomon Alabi to Erie (NBA D-League).

Tuesday, March 8
• Denver signed coach George Karl to a three-year contract extension.
• Portland agreed to terms with coach Nate McMillan on a two-year contract extension.

Monday, March 7
• Charlotte signed guard Garrett Temple to 10-day contract.

Saturday, March 5
• Memphis signed forward Leon Powe.

Written by Connor Winn, ‘Cap Backwards’ is a discussion column on the NBA’s salary cap and its many intricacies.

But onto more interesting stuff…like unions and budgets.The NBA, led by its commissioner, David Stern, and the NBA Player’s Association, led by its executive director, Billy Hunter, are in the midst of ‘negotiating’ a new collective bargaining agreement to bridge the gap between owner demands and player interests.

‘Negotiating’ deserves the written equivalent of sarcastic, even cynical, quotes in this case because talks between the two sides are summed up best by Jennifer Coolidge’s character in Best in Show – “We could not talk or talk forever and still find things to not talk about.”

The current CBA expires June 30, 2011. The last exchange of proposals between the two sides – February 2010. That’s a whole lot of not talking. During last month’s All Star break, however, “progress” (double the sarcasm) was made.

Stern: “There’s no disagreement about the numbers.”

Hunter responded in a statement: “There has been ongoing debate and disagreement regarding the numbers.”

Stern: “There’s disagreement about the component of the numbers and whether they should be included.”

So, I guess that answers that? Obviously, there are numbers involving  components. I think we can agree that there is some sort of ambiguous agreement or disagreement going on with those.

Luckily, Derek Fisher, president of the Player’s Association, shed a bit more light earlier this week in an interview with the LA Times. Although, both sides had agreed to keep negotiations out of the press, Fisher circumvented that to an extent in what could be a masterful public relations move.

Fisher publicly embraced a willingness to sacrifice player salaries for the good of the game and the public: “Almost all players would understand if owners…asked for a 2% salary cut in exchange for lower ticket prices.”

Fisher has essentially co-opted one of the public’s largest grievances with the NBA, exorbitant ticket prices, into the player’s side of the negotiations. The NBAPA is now arguing on behalf of not only the players, but the public as well, through its willingness to sacrifice for the fans.

Forbes’ ranking of 2011 Team Values lists 17 teams with negative operating income. This is one of the many reasons Stern wants to reduce player salaries by 35% and institute a hard salary cap like the NFL employs. (“Probably one of the biggest impediments for getting a deal has been their demands for a hard salary cap, and we’ve indicated that we just don’t see any way possible for us to accept that,” Hunter said).

Fisher counters that owners are in control of whom they choose to pay and how much – “There isn’t anything in the collective bargaining agreement that says you have to pay all these guys this much money.”

Stern may be correct in asserting player salaries are unsustainable – “we have a model in place that was put in at an earlier time when the costs that were producing the revenue weren’t as high as they are now.” They may be too large a piece of the pie, but the public is the one serving the pie, and without remuneration, the public will not readily welcome back greedy owners and players fighting over the largest bite of the public’s spent money. Fisher has alleviated, to an extent, the public’s grievance with the players. And with sports team owners being painted into a corner like this, the forthcoming NBA PR war may have just had its Lexington and Concord moment.

Written by Connor Winn, ‘Cap Backwards’ is a discussion column on the NBA’s salary cap and its many intricacies.

I’m not saying that I am moving on, because I am certainly too much of a second guesser to do that. But dealing with reality is probably in order to at least bring the current state of the Rockets to light.

Which is why Red94 has published a Rockets salary page. It lists the salary, to the best of my knowledge and research, of each active player on the Rockets and distinguishes between Team Options, Player Options, and Qualifying Offers via a complex color coding system of Blue, Red and Green.

Additionally, I have listed the estimated Cap Holds each player will count toward Houston’s salary cap the summer their contract expires. This amount will let you know that, even though the player is not under contract, the cap hold is applied to the team’s salary cap until that player signs a new contract.

I used data and figures from all over the place but especially from www.shamsports.com and www.hoopsworld.com. I hope you enjoy (which would be best accomplished by glazing over the $16,392,183 potentially owed to Hasheem Thabeet).

Remember, the NBA is negotiating with the Player’s Association on a new set of rules that will govern player salaries, soooo…..

Written by Connor Winn, ‘Cap Backwards’ is a discussion column on the NBA’s salary cap and its many intricacies.

I suspect Rockets GM Daryl Morey is expecting us (as fans) to continue waiting.

“It’s not for lack of trying,” Morey said. “I hope people understand that. We’re going to be among the top five teams in the league in flexibility this offseason.”

So we’ve got that going for us, (as people).

If you believe the “not for a lack of trying” defense, you can assume that Houston’s front office burned the phone and email lines between here and all the other teams. Such communications were not made available to me. And short of calling Mr. Morey and pretending to be his billionaire benefactor to get the inside scoop, I was relegated to the internet for my rumor mongering. Differentiating between credible reports and rumors of the high school girls’ variety can be tough and far less entertaining than believing everything you read.

So, was I happy when the www.dailypuppy.com reported that the Rockets were in the preliminary stages of forcibly packing Aaron Brooks’ suitcase in exchange for a Pomeranian and a twelve pack of Purina? No, but I was less thrilled when I read Brooks was headed to Phoenix in return for Goran Dragic and a first round pick. The latter signified the gross overestimation of Brooks’ trade value that I, and the rest of Rockets’ fans, was guilty of calculating. (Brooks demeanor and horrid shooting this season were, admittedly, largely dismissed from that calculation.)

With Brooks’ cheap, expiring contract combined with his previous season’s Most Improved Player performance, I figured he was just a notch or two below the likes of Devin Harris in value. Both are small, Brooks is smaller. Both can score, Brooks is the better shooter. I suppose that is the type of self-interested figuring that lands people in prison.

Now that I have established my limited ability to gauge value, please do not hesitate to sell me that Rolex you picked up in Istanbul last year, and also, understand my frustration at the Rockets’ inability to place themselves in one of the two trades involving players Houston could have benefited by acquiring.

My tally could include: Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams, Kendrick Perkins and Gerald Wallace. But Anthony only wanted to go to the Knicks, and Portland, who acquired Wallace for some bench players and two future first rounders, paid too steep a price for a super-glue guy.

That leaves Deron Williams and Kendrick Perkins. And yet Rockets fans are leaving the party with Goran Dragic and Hasheem Thabeet.

Perkins was traded from Boston with Nate Robinson to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic. Robinson was used to make the salaries exchangeable under the current trading rules. A young, championship pedigreed, defensive stalwart at the center position for a young power forward and a back-up center?

The Celtics wanted Shane Battier. The Rockets clearly were willing to give him away. Jordan Hill or Patrick Patterson, young power forwards, and Battier is worse than Green and Kristic? I feel like the parent at the basketball game who cannot understand why their kid, whom they think is better than Air Bud, is on the bench when he is actually uncoordinated to the point that the coach thinks the kid needs glasses (barely a true story, but only because Air Bud had not yet been produced).

Much like the rest of the unintuitive* population, I concluded that Jerry Sloan was forced to step down as coach of the Utah Jazz so that the Jazz could appease Deron Williams. I reasoned Utah was, therefore, intent on keeping one of the best point guards on their team. Instead, the Jazz traded Williams for last year’s number three overall pick, Derrick Favors, Devin Harris, $3 million, and two first round picks. The people who saw that trade coming are the same people who tell you they were about to invest in Google 15 years ago.

My frustration, while ill conceived in what is probably flawed logic (yup), lies in the idea that the Rockets could have bested that offer. Kevin Martin, Patrick Patterson, Kyle Lowry/Brooks, and draft picks? Is the whole world taking crazy pills? Is that not a better offer than what the Jazz took? So what the heck do I know?

As far as the Rockets are actually concerned, here is what happened:

Before the trades, the Rockets’ total salary for the 2010/11 season was $73,753,370. That is $3,446,370 over the luxury tax threshold, which would require the Rockets to pay a dollar for dollar fine for the overage ($6,892,740).

Aaron Brooks for Goran Dragic and the Suns’ 1^st round draft pick this June, lottery protected.

If that pick is in the top 14, the Rockets instead will receive Orlando’s 2011 1^st round pick that Phoenix acquired in a trade earlier this year. Orlando’s pick will likely be toward the end of the draft given their projected record at the end of the season.

Dragic is making $1,972,000 this season with a team option for $2,108,000 next year.

Brooks is making $2,016,692, or $44,692 more than Dragic, on an expiring contract.

That is $89,384 in luxury tax savings.

Dragic has a team option for $2,108,000 next season.

Brooks would have a cap hold of $2,976,636 this summer which means the Rockets will be effectively $868,636 further under the salary cap (2,976,636 – 2,108,000). Except that this summer’s salary cap will likely be smaller than this season’s and, regardless, it is an unknown number.

Also, the draft pick acquired from Phoenix will have its own associated cap hold (last summer it would have been between $1,443,300 and $850,800, given its position between the 14^th and 30^th pick).

Shane Battier and Ish Smith for Hasheem Thabeet and DeMarre Carroll and Memphis’ 1^st round draft pick in 2013, also lottery protected.

Thabeet and Carroll make a combine $5,878,680 this season.

Battier and Smith make a combined $7,828,104 this season, or $1,949,424 more than the incoming salaries.

That is $3,898,848 in luxury tax savings.

Battier’s contract expires after this season, and Smith’s is not guaranteed. Even if there’s a fire.

Thabeet is owed $5,127,720 next year. Carroll’s contract expires after this season. Assuming the Rockets were not going to renew Smith’s contract and that they will waive Carroll, the Rockets cut $2,226,780 off next season’s payroll.

The Rockets saved a combined $3,988,232 in luxury tax payments – 2*(44,692 + 1,949,424) – and potentially cut some payroll off next season’s team.

*Referring to the imbedded link and its’ underlined text, I am being facetious. Thomsen’s premise that the Jazz are preemptively grabbing what they can by trading Williams before he bolts town is flawed. Thomsen seems to be saying the Jazz basically had to do this trade now or lose Williams for nothing; much like Denver had to trade Carmelo Anthony.

Thomsen says the Jazz could “ready themselves to exploit the next collective bargaining agreement.” He further guesses that “the owners of the mid- and small-market teams like Utah will be more galvanized than ever to create a system that can enable them to retain their best players (a franchise tag).”

The Nuggets traded Carmelo because he could opt out of his contract this summer before the new collective bargaining agreement and its proposed franchise tag and hard salary cap stipulations comes into effect. The Nuggets faced losing Melo for nothing or trading him now. Williams has another year on his contract which expires in 2012 meaning that Utah will still maintain the rights to Williams after the new collective bargaining agreement is negotiated in 2011. Thomsen’s argument that the Jazz were forced to jettison Williams because they would not be able to take advantage of the new CBA and its speculated stipulations ignores the fact that Williams becomes a free agent in 2012 when the new CBA will be in effect.

Written by Connor Winn, ‘Cap Backwards’ is a discussion column on the NBA’s salary cap and its many intricacies.

If actual trades are like pieces of peppercorn bacon cooked to the exact moment of chewy crispiness, then trade rumors are the ubiquitous cubes of tofu somehow ingrained in every department of Whole Foods. Rumors are filling but not satiating; they can pique your curiosity but perpetually leave you wanting more. In the end, a poor substitute.

In their best case, rumors provide a nice escalation toward an eventual crescendo – see Steve Francis for Tracy McGrady. So far, the Rockets have been rumored in the pursuit of everyone from Omar Asik of the Bulls to Carmelo. Neither of which appear to have legs, especially the latter.

A safe assumption will be that the Rockets insert themselves in the middle of a blockbuster, or at least a new release on Netflix, to make ends meet between other parties. The Rockets have the most variable combination of assets available – 1^st round picks (its own and right to swap with Knicks), young talent (Patterson, Hill, Budinger, Brooks), expiring contracts (Battier/Jeffries), and contracts covered by insurance (Yao).

With nothing really to report beyond conjecture, I highly recommend reading Larry Coon’s piece on ESPN earlier this week. He underscores the futility of trying to project the salary cap ramifications of today’s moves within the unknown parameters of the future Collective Bargaining Agreement (or CBA – which essentially governs how much teams are allowed to spend on player salaries).

Written by Connor Winn, ‘Cap Backwards’ is a discussion column on the NBA’s salary cap and its many intricacies.

The signing of Brad Miller to a three year contract? Obviously Miller is a solid piece, but at 34 he contributes in much the same way Dikembe Mutombo did a few seasons back. Miller is meant to provide quality minutes off the bench and solidify a front court rotation. By no means was he to start. Because he has, it is logical to infer that the Rockets had faith in a resurgence of Yao Ming. He must have been signed for that purpose (as it happened before Yao went down), but Miller now only serves to block the development of Jordan Hill and Patrick Patterson.

The trade of Trevor Ariza for Courtney Lee? This move is the most obvious. Besides moving much closer to the luxury tax threshold, it was a dump of what is becoming an onerous contract for a cheaper substitute who better fit the mold of what the Rockets want in their players: an understanding of personal limitations and knowledge of roles within the team.

The trade for Terrence Williams? … This one kills me. The Rockets only surrendered a draft pick (no salary cap value until after the draft pick has been made), which means they were willing to increase their luxury tax payments to get him. This kid must not show any comprehension of Coach Rick Adelman’s schemes, especially on the defensive end, to merit so little playing time. Just before arriving in Houston, Williams had averaged a triple double over three games in the D-League. Obviously, he is overqualified for that assignment, but the major leagues are over his head. The Rockets either view him as a talent another team will risk developing and can be used to sweeten a trade package. Or they are going to have to roll up their sleeves and do it themselves. Hopefully, this trade deadline will make clear that decision for the fans.

By playing veterans Chuck Hayes, Shane Battier, Miller, et al., Adelman is giving his team the best chance to win (now). He is foregoing the option of giving meaningful playing time to Patterson, Hill, and Chase Budinger so that they will be ready to contribute in subsequent seasons. This is a defensible position. Winning is what the team is supposed to do and accomplishing it provides greater job security. Beyond that, making the playoffs is financially beneficial to everyone from the players to the owner.

From a fan’s perspective the scenario is tough to judge conclusively. We pay to see the best product the team can field (court?). And we pay a lot. Our escape from life’s obligations is best spent where we get the most return on our investment. We will grant reprieve to a failed season here and there, but we need the tools to properly assess what constitutes failure. Our loyalty can only extend as far as our trust.

I am hypercritical of leadership in any capacity: my company’s, my friends’, my family’s, and yes, my sporting interests’. It is because I want all to succeed, and I obviously have opinions governing the definition of success and how it can be accomplished. This is no more so true than in the political arena – where I actually get to help choose the leaders.

Because I agonize over choices on the ballot, I once asked my grandmother, a very highly educated doctor lady, how she made decisions that so often seemed a choice of the lesser evil. She said when she could not decide for whom to cast her vote, rather than abstain, she always votes for who she thinks is the most intelligent candidate. Worst case: they may be corrupt but at least they know the stakes. Best case: they agonize over the decisions like she would.

While the City of Houston may not have voted for the Rockets’ front office, I trust, for the time being, decisions are being made with careful consideration adhering to a plan, malleable it may be. My only thought, however obsequious, is that the Rockets are patiently maintaining the flexibility needed to take the first step toward such purpose as the front office has internally defined. The moves we have seen heretofore are not meant to head in any specific direction, but rather, to prevent the team from being boxed out of an opportunity in the future.

Written by Connor Winn, ‘Cap Backwards’ is a discussion column on the NBA’s salary cap and its many intricacies.

As has been well chronicled, Houston Rockets’ GM, Daryll Morey, has been stockpiling liquid assets for some time. Morey is a believer in the RC Buford, superstar team mold: 3 stars, with at least one superstar, integrated with complimentary specialists. With the loss of Yao Ming, and perhaps, regardless of, the Rockets are, at best, two wise men short of the outfit headed to Bethlehem. In need of a generational talent and a dude with frankincense to augment Kevin Martin, Morey is at least, as you will see, following the right star.

Morey’s accumulation of talent resembles the equity, or stock, side of an aggressively managed fund. He is heaviest on the assets having shown glimpses of tantalizing potential and that are easiest to move. Below, I have broken down the Rockets’ roster into two groups with the first being those positions most difficult to unwind. Juxtaposed to the second group of high liquidity assets, one cannot help but deduce that Morey is a bull waiting to charge.

Player, Age – Average salary over life of contract – Contract years remaining after this season – 2010/11 PER

HOUSTON ROOTS

Luis Scola, 30 – $9 million – 3 (base year compensation) – 18.65

Kyle Lowry, 24 – $5.75 million – 2 – 15.42

Brad Miller, 34 – $4.58 – 1 (2^nd is unguaranteed) – 17.43

READY TO MOVE

Patrick Patterson, 21 – $2.25 – 3 (rookie contract options) – 16.60

Kevin Martin, 27 – $11.5 – 2 – 22.54

Jordan Hill, 23 – $3 – 2 (rookie contract options) – 11.60

Terrence Williams, 23 – $2.58 – 2 (rookie contract options) – 14.64

Courtney Lee, 25 – $1.79 – 1 (rookie contract option) – 11.58

Chase Budinger, 22 – $0.87 – 2 (unguaranteed) – 14.78

Ishmael Smith, 22 – $0.63 – 1 (unguaranteed) – 9.23

Aaron Brooks, 26 – $2 – expiring (restricted) – 14.52

Yao Ming, 30 – $17.69 million – expiring – N/A

Shane Battier, 32 – $7.35 – expiring – 13.15

Jared Jeffries, 29 – $6.88 – expiring – 9.45

Chuck Hayes, 27 – $1.97 – expiring – 15.81

Not exactly a balanced portfolio, eh? Safe to conclude Morey is more eager to barter than ‘that guy’ in your fantasy league? Too many rhetorical questions?

Given that the Rockets are maxed out on the role players side of the Buford equation, Morey is clearly reaching for the stars. Sacramento is, therefore, not an ideal bilateral option for Houston as the Kings’ lone star, the supremely talented Tyreke Evans, is only being moved if David Stern agrees to replay the 2002 Western Conference Finals with referees from Switzerland, not the original ones from Compton.

Demarcus Cousins is intriguing but also seemingly unmovable but for political reasons (Kevin Johnson is convinced the stuff between Cousins’ ears singlehandedly draws federal education expenditures to the city of Sacramento like a pork barrel magnet). Multilateral negotiations would be far more interesting. And far more complex. And my thesaurus is running out of big words for ‘lots of’. So the focus will be on trades of mutual benefit between the two teams.

With the lack of available stars in Sacramento and the general depth of Houston’s bench, there is not a whole lot with which to build a change-my-underwear inspiring trade. As luck would have it, the Rockets and Kings each have some depth at a position the other could use an upgrade.

Aaron Brooks would seemingly be a fairly good fit next to Tyreke Evans. Brooks is a great shooter and scorer with capable passing skills. He could space the floor for Evans to drive and shoulder some of the offensive burden keeping Evans fresh. The Kings would acquire Brooks’ Bird Rights and the right of first refusal for his upcoming restricted free agency. At the least, Brooks is a dynamic threat off the bench who has averaged 20 and 5 in the past.

The Rockets’ only true center is the 34 year old Brad Miller. Chuck Hayes does an admirable job but does not cut the mustard as a starting pivot on a deep playoff team. Patterson and Hill are each better suited at the 4, as is Scola.

Sacramento’s Jason Thompson can be ruled out for the simple fact that he replicates what the Rockets already have in Hill and Patterson. He also lacks the propensity for taking charges that is a hallmark trait of Morey players. He also is not a great rebounder nor a good shot blocker. Basically, absent from Thompson are all the traits the Rockets need in a center.

Samuel Dalembert, on the contrary, is closer to filling a need – as a shot blocker capable of coming from the weak side to cover the mistakes of an otherwise porous defense. Additionally, he rebounds at an above average rate. He also comes with an expiring contract of $13.4 million which would not detract from the Rockets’ emphasis on flexibility.

To acquire Dalembert, who by the way is a statistically inferior defender to Chuck Hayes in points allowed per play 0.74 to 0.88, the Rockets could recompense the Kings the expiring contracts necessary to maintain Sacramento’s goal of being massively under any projected cap. Jeffries’ expiring $6.88 million and/or Battier’s expiring $7.35 million are a good starting point. But a “Brooks and expiring contracts for Dalembert swap” alone is not nearly enough impetus for a trade between the two teams.

Because the Kings are $13.5 million under the salary cap, Sacramento is able to absorb that much more salary in a trade than they divest. This makes the Kings a potent facilitator in multi-team trades, but does it add value in the eyes of the Rockets?

With Houston barely contending for the 8^th seed, it is presumably safe to rule them out of NBA Finals contention this summer. As such, it would be understandable for Rockets’ owner, Les Alexander, to cut some fat off the team’s $3.4 million luxury tax overage. Any amount excised would effectively save the team double because of the dollar-for-dollar penalty associated with the tax. In that context, an expiring contract like Jared Jeffries and a conditional draft pick for little used Antoine Wright would make sense. In such a scenario, the Rockets could potentially move under the tax threshold and save a combined $8.6 million in salary obligations and luxury tax fines.

Additionally, if the Rockets are on the verge of losing some of their assets this summer to free agency, it would make sense to trade them now and save on the luxury tax bill. For example, if Aaron Brooks does not fit into the Rockets’ future plans, it does not make sense to retain him heading into his free agency this summer when another team will sign him and leaving the Rockets with nothing. That would waste any value he has to the team now. If the decision to cut ties with Brooks is made, it would make sense to use his value now, in a trade to someone like Sacramento, to dump salary and avoid luxury tax fees. The Rockets could combine Brooks in a trade like the cost cutting one above for Wright, saving the Rockets a combined $16 million in salary and fees.

Unfortunately for this exercise, the Rockets are seemingly poised to pay a luxury tax in order to retain and accumulate talent. This was made evident in December when Morey and Company traded a conditional 1^st round pick for Terrence Williams. Williams cannot be part of any trade, except for a one-for-one swap, until this summer. Considering the cost of adding Williams is double his salary because of its addition to the luxury tax, the Rockets appear ready to pay the tax in order to increase their chances at landing a superstar sometime down the road.

The Rockets, however, are cognizant of the state of limbo toward which this strategy may lead. Neither good enough to compete nor bad enough to win the lottery, the team’s popularity and value will decline in the mire of mediocrity. The Kings, while not possessive of a star for Houston, can deliver the hope necessary to stave of irrelevance – a 15% chance at winning this summer’s draft lottery.

Most teams would be loath to give up a chance that high at attaining the talent that comes with a top 3 pick. Even with a draft pool like the one upcoming, which lacks any “sure thing” pick, teams do not want to give away the sense of hope that keeps a fan base curiously engaged. But maybe that lack of promising potential can be effectively contrasted against enough of Houston’s young talent and expiring deals to assuage such hesitancy. This is highly unlikely. The potential for pairing Duke’s Kyrie Irving with Tyreke Evans, in what would become one of the most intriguing NBA backcourts, gets the Maloofs’ blood pumping about as much as the thought of Justin Bieber signing a 10 year performance deal at their Palms casino in Vegas.

For argument’s sake, however, a combination of the expiring deals of Yao Ming and Shane Battier with the potential of Brooks, Hill/Patterson, and Budinger for the Kings 2011 1^st round pick, Dalembert, and the vaguely onerous contract of Francisco Garcia does work. Sacramento would be adding $30.5 million this year and none of it would be guaranteed next season. Budinger and Hill could be retained for $0.884 and $2.8 million, respectively. Combined with the cut of Garcia, the Kings would only add an additional $0.917 to next year’s bottom line (and that includes the qualifying offer to Brooks necessary to maintain the aforementioned right of first refusal).

These scenarios are interesting in their strategic impact, though devoid of the sex appeal of the big names average fans crave. In the end, the Rockets and Kings are imperfect trade partners by themselves. Each team, though especially Sacramento, has positioned itself to facilitate trades between other teams, allowing them to take a little off the top for themselves. Teams such as Indiana, Charlotte or New Orleans with costs to cut and major assets in play would be prudent in keeping the Kings and Rockets in mind.

This would have enabled the team to add a player within the $5.875 million exception. It expires today, and, according to chron.com’s Jonathan Feigen, it appears it will go unused.

This is of little impact to the team, as the traded player exception created by the Trevor Ariza trade last summer is larger, $6.33 million, and does not expire until August 11.

Additionaly, Houston has three other exceptions from various trades:

Joey Dorsey – $881,000

Carl Landry -$1,647,360

Jermaine Taylor – $780,871

It is important to note that these exceptions cannot be combined nor used in conjunction with another player from the Rockets to acquire a contract of greater value. They can only be used on a singular basis.

The whole thing took me back to 9^th grade. I had snuck into a rated R movie with my friends. It was going to be a raunchy good time, laughing hysterically at Ben Stiller zip his bits in his fly, Cameron Diaz put gel in her hair, and Matt Dillon play football with handicapped kids. Of course, that dream ended abruptly when the bright lights of the opening credits illuminated the unmistakable thinning, white perm of my grandmother, sitting two rows up. Gone was the promise of a great spectacle, replaced by the torture of trying not to laugh. A should have been great experience relegated to the disappointing category of the ‘almost but not quite’ – which would go on to happen a lot more in college, albeit, in a different capacity.*

Of course, in this present scenario, I am not the one that had to hide for fear of being seen. I believe that distinction was beholden to Nets general manager, Billy King, as he surely attempted to avoid having to tell to his Russian employer, Net’s owner, Mikhail Prokhorov, why he failed so miserably.

The piece of the Carmelo puzzle that is cause for the most consternation for King and other GM’s is his contract and its conjoining effect with the Collective Bargaining negotiations. That consternation has obviously been the root of all the Carmelo trade constipation. (Sorry, that was too tempting.)

Though Carmelo could be a free agent this coming summer, his contract, one must remember, is not expiring after this season. Melo has an Early Termination Option allowing him to decide when he becomes a free agent, this summer or the next. If he opts out this summer, he forfeits the $18,518,574 he could earn by sticking with the contract until it expires in the summer of 2012.

Remember that $18 million. According to Mike Ozanian at Forbes: (David Stern) wants to lop $750 million off of player costs, lowering the portion of basketball-related revenue that goes to players from 57% to around 40%.

Knocking $25 million of player expenditures per team (750 / 30 teams) does not seem too likely. But as a starting point for the Stern side of the negotiations, it certainly means the salary cap will be shrinking. If it did happen and Carmelo chooses to opt out, he would have a hard time making up the $18 million he left on his contract, much less the $65 million dollar extension he has refused to sign.

If the salary cap dips from its current figure into the $40’s million, Carmelo stands to lose a lot. From a fiscal perspective, this would seem to indicate that Carmelo would at least hold onto his contract for one more year.**

* Even though she never saw me, looking back, I am sure it was much worse for her. Thinking she was in for a heartwarming rom-com, Booty (I couldn’t say her name, Ruth, as a baby, much less the Ruthy for which she initially pined) instead was subjected to the prime of the Farrelly Brothers.

** (tongue firmly planted in cheek) My interpretation is framed in much the same scenario of that of Ingrid Bergman’s character, Ilsa Lund, in Casablanca. I am going to traverse the limb and assume I am not spoiling a great movie, but in perhaps the most iconic scene in cinema history, Lund stands before an awaiting propeller plane with a choice between two lives:

True love and less wealth (though still enough to scrape by) represented by Humphrey Bogart’s Rick Blaine VS the financial security offered by Paul Henreid’s boring and stiff Victor Laszlo.

Does Carmelo follow the tugs on his heart being pulled by his wife, LaLa Vazquez and her career aspirations? In which case, Carmelo opts out of the last year of his contract and heads to New York, the money be danged.

Or does he accept that perhaps his greatest chance at assured financial security lies on a less glamorous but more steadfast path? In which case, a team like your Houston Rockets acquires him for at least a season.

“If that plane leaves the ground and you’re not with him, you’ll regret it. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow, but soon and for the rest of your life.”

As the NBA heads into the heart of its in-season, trading season, a couple of items need be remembered to ensure those trades in your head are valid:

1)      The NBA Trade Deadline is the 16^th Thursday of the season, which falls on February 24, 2011, this year.

2)      Teams cannot trade a player recently acquired via a separate trade for two months after the acquiring trade date.

a.       So Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, and Gilbert Arenas, acquired on December 18^th, cannot be traded until February 18, 2011.

3)       Unless, of course, that player is traded by himself, i.e. a trade not including another player from his team.

a.       So when the Hornets traded Jerryd Bayless only a month after acquiring him from Portland, it was actually two trades.

b.      Hornets acquired Jarret Jack, Marcus Banks, and David Andersen from the Raptors for Bayless and Peja Stojakovic.

c.       Bayless was traded by himself for Andersen.

d.      Peja was traded for Jack and Banks.

e.      NBA teams are tricky.

4)      A team cannot reacquire a player it traded in the same season, unless that player was waived. Remember Zydrunas Ilgauskas being traded to the Wizards last year, only to resign with the Cavs later that season?

5)      For teams over the salary cap, the incoming players’ combined salaries cannot exceed 125% plus $100,000 of the combined outgoing salaries.

6)      In a trade teams can include “cash considerations” up to $3,000,000 and draft picks.

7)      When “cash considerations” are part of a trade, it is not included in the matching of salaries exchanged between teams. Draft picks are likewise counted as $0.

8)      Base Year Compensation players, like Luis Scola, are hard to trade. So Luis Scola will be paid $7,775,378 but he would only count as 50% of that, or $3,887,689, in an exchange of salaries. This theoretically prevents the Rockets from getting equal value in trading him.

9)      There are three types of exceptions for NBA Trades: Minimum Salary, Disabled Player, and Traded Player.

10)  The Minimum Salary exception allows teams over the salary cap to acquire (sign or trade for) players making the minimum salary. I would go into further detail, but I hate typing the word minimum.

11)   The Disabled Player exception allows teams to acquire a replacement player for an injured player.

a.       The Rockets applied for such an exception when Yao went down.

b.      So did the Mavericks when Caron Butler went down. Rejection!

12)  Traded Player Exceptions can only be used in trades and are created when a team trades away only one player whose salary is greater than that of the incoming salaries. The exception amount is equal to that difference.

a.       Example – The Rockets traded David Andersen on July 28, 2010 and received a 2^nd round draft pick. The Rockets also created a $2,500,000 trade exception, Andersen’s salary, for themselves.

b.      So when the Rockets traded Trevor Ariza ($6,322,320 salary) as part of the deal that brought Courtney Lee to town this past summer and received a $6,322,320 trade exception, a conclusion can be drawn.

c.       The exception matches Arixa’s salary exactly.

d.      Conclusion being that the acquisition of Courtney Lee ($1,352,640 salary) in that transaction was actually a separate trade as he was acquired using a previous trade exception.

13)  The Rockets have four Traded Player Exceptions: Ariza – $6,322,320, Carl Landry – $1,647,360, Joey Dorsey – $881,000, and Jermaine Taylor – $780,871.

a.       These exceptions cannot be used in conjunction to acquire a player with a $10,000,000 salary.

b.      The exceptions must be traded alone, such as the manner in which they were created. They cannot be combined with another player’s salary to acquire a player with a larger salary. (Can’t add the Ariza $6.3 million to Shane Battier’s $7.3 million contract to acquire Steve Nash and his $10 million salary)

c.       The Rockets can use only part of an exception and keep the remainder for a later trade.

d.      The Rockets can combine a draft pick with an exception to essentially acquire a player without giving one up.

e.       The exceptions expire a year after their creation. So Ariza’s expires on August 11, 2011.

14)  A player who was a restricted free agent the summer before, umm Kyle Lowy, whose team used the right of first refusal to sign, cough Houston Rockets, cannot be traded for one year without his consent.

a.       In Lowry’s case, the Celtics made an offer which the Rockets matched. So the Rockets cannot trade him this season without his approval.

There’s more, but I need to go read some back issues of Berkshire Hathaway’s Annual Reports to clear my mind (actual quote from 2008 Annual: “By year end, investors of all stripes were bloodied and confused, much as if they were small birds who had strayed into a badminton game.”)

I can only recall two franchises having been purchased by their respective leagues: Phoenix Coyotes in the NHL and the Montreal Expos in MLB. I was, planning to gleefully extrapolate the MLB’s mismanagement of the Expos to garner hopes of a Rocket’s acquisition of significance. The Expos were placed under such tight financial constraints that they were forced to bow out of a playoff chase because MLB’s commissioner, Bud Selig, would not authorize a few $50,000 expenditures.

But comparing Selig and David Stern was too much of a stretch (you’ll understand the sarcasm in a second). The former has preserved an institutional “integrity” through a steadfast refusal to embrace common sense change (instant replay) that is killing the future of the sport by driving kids (the people who become professional players) into other arenas. Stern, conversely, has globalized his sport becoming one of the most popular leagues and brands in the world.

No, that would be far too outlandish. So instead, I devised a trade that could never happen (AND HAS NOT BEEN RUMORED) but makes absolute sense…to me (I ran it past co-Red94 contributor, Ben Heller, and he saw things differently, with valid arguments I seem to have misplaced).

ROCKETS:

Acquire – Chris Bosh and Monta Ellis. Yup, I said it.

Divest – Aaron Brooks, Chase Budinger, Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries, and Kevin Martin

GOLDEN STATE:

Acquire – Kevin Martin, Jordan Hill, Evan Turner

Divest – Monta Ellis, Brandon Wright

PHILADELPHIA:

Acquire – Jared Jeffries, Brandon Wright, Chase Budinger

Divest – Elton Brand, Evan Turner

MIAMI:

Acquire: Elton Brand, Aaron Brooks, Draft Picks from Knicks via Rockets

Divest: Chris Bosh

Take a deep breath.

HOUSTON

A starting five of: Kyle Lowry, Monta Ellis, Shane Battier, Luis Scola and Chris Bosh doesn’t need too much explaining.

MIAMI

For Miami to participate in this trade is so unrealistic that Bud Selig would have to be managing the Heat for this to have any legs. First, Bosh did not want to come to Houston. Trading him here would just piss him off. Second, Miami would have to admit to a complete miscalculation, swallow its pride, and be willing to take another risk (on Brand’s health). Additionally, Miami’s player-GM, LeBron James, would not likely be open to trading the Batgirl to his and Wade’s Batman/Robin dynamic.

But, let’s pretend that the Miami season is stuck around .500 in January. The playoffs are in sight, but team cohesion is passed out under a table in a Miami nightclub with a half-empty LIT in its hand, a bloody nose, and its cell phone turned off. On a scale of 1 to “college senior with beer goggles,” how desperate are LeBron and Wade? My back of the envelope analysis leans toward “regrettable decision” desperate.

Who is a better hook-up option than a defensive center capable of scoring on the block and a reliable outside shooting point guard who can create his own shot in a pinch? Throw in a draft pick or two, and that’s baby making music.

For the most part, NBA teams need more than two guys who can score on their own to compete for a ring (2000’s Rockets contrast sharply against the early 2000’s Lakers). Losing Bosh would thus necessitate players to fill his offensive output. But converting Bosh into two players capable of scoring, one of whom can create his own shot, while upgrading Miami’s biggest weakness, post defense? That seems palatable, on paper at least.

Brooks gives the Heat not only a sorely needed perimeter shooter (with LeBron and Wade, a team could never have enough, even with the return of Mike Miller), but the little water-bug can also carry an offense for long stretches when neither LeBron nor Wade are willing/available to do so.

The key to the Heat’s side of things is Brooks’ rookie contract. It is cheap this year, allowing him to fit alongside Brand in the salary cap hole vacated by Bosh. More important would be the Heat acquiring Brooks’ Bird Rights, allowing them to circumvent the Salary Cap in order to retain him (given the current structure of the CBA) at his higher, market value next year. The Heat is unlikely to find a talent such as Brooks to fit into the Mid-Level Exception.

Brand is admittedly a risk, but this past summer was his first not spent in rehab (injury, not with Vin Baker or Tiger Woods) in 2 years. This season has been his most productive in years. Seems logical to connect those two dots, no? His trade value is its highest it will ever be.  He does not warrant a max deal as he is no longer a focal point, but 15ppg, 8rpg, 1.5spg, and 1bpg are good numbers for a team that needs defense at the rim. His veteran status means he can contribute right away and be willing to put the team ahead of his own stats.

The draft picks give the hope of reloading complimentary players on the run.

PHILADELPHIA

Philadelphia appears to be giving up a lot. That is primarily because it would be. A lot of money would be walking out their door. A lot. $20,561,819 out the door with only $11,062,743 coming in and only $4,178,943 carrying over to the 2012 season because of Jeffries expiring $6,883,800 contract. Philly would have salary obligations of about $37 million in 2012, or $21 million under the current salary cap.

Saving over $16 million by giving up an overpaid veteran and a heretofore disappointing draft pick is not an unreasonable move. This move also places them within $900,000 of the actual salary cap. So if Philly could cut another $1 million, it would have the flexibility to become a facilitator in subsequent trades. The Sonics/Thunder were able to accumulate fantastic assets from teams seeking to dump distressed assets – 1^st round pick from Phoenix for taking on Kurt Thomas’ huge contract.

Elton Brand’s contract is bigger than my…well, its big. Brand has been a bust in Philly due to injuries. He is also a veteran on a young team, wasting his production for a future he will not be party to. Unloading him would be revising history for the better. Would it be the equivalent of telling JFK on April 2^nd 1961 that plans to invade Cuba by way of the Bay of Pigs were just a bad April Fool’s joke? No. But it would allow 76ers GM Billy King to escape the mistakes of the previous regime (Parallel – Dwight Eisenhower’s administration actually drew the plans for the Bay of Pigs invasion that happened 3 months into Kennedy’s presidency).

Another little nugget in this scenario is the playing time previously allocated to Brand would presumably be given to youngster Mareese Speights. The kid has solid per minute numbers and just needs more experience. I say presumably, because Doug Collins embraces player development in the same manner I embrace changes to my golf swing: it’s uncomfortable and frustrating even though people tell me it will pay off in the future. And just like I am only a mediocre golfer on my best days, Collins is a…well…Doug just isn’t who you want leading a young team.

A larger dose of Speights added to a corps of Andre Iguodola and Jrue Holiday is a great foundation as Holiday has emerged as a potential Russell Westbrook-like PG. Budinger is more than a throw in, especially at his price tag, and Wright offers a recoupment of some of the potential lost in the departing Turner.

GOLDEN STATE

Golden State is building a Team, and it should not be Monta Ellis’. Stephen Curry is a man. He needs the reigns. Ellis will only impede Curry reaching his full potential. David Lee is a great complimentary-star – superstar numbers with a workman’s attitude. Lee and Curry are among the best passers at their position and Ellis is not ideally suited playing off those two, despite his ability to put up good assist numbers.

Golden State needs young, bench depth to grow along with its budding stars.  Adding another athletic shot blocker and rebounder in Jordan Hill who does not need the ball to contribute to team wins is a start. Hill playing alongside Biedrins would be an imposing and athletic frontline. Acquiring the No. 3 pick in last summer’s draft, Evan Turner, is a great gamble given his demonstration of growth and contributions at Ohio State. Philly has not been able to reach him (Doug Collins + Kwame Brown = History repeating itself), but the kid has shown he can play.

Acquiring Kevin Martin maintains the Warriors’ three star blueprint. It also never hurts to have another perimeter threat who can knock down threes and get to the line. Martin can space the floor in a Jeff Hornacek roll for a Curry-Lee duo.

Acquiring Hill, Turner and Martin fills significant needs in the Bay Area and offsets the offensive loss of Ellis while turning the team over to Curry. A starting lineup of Curry, Martin, Dorrell Wright, Lee and Andris Biedrins with Hill backing up the posts off the bench has plenty of firepower and size.

Golden State, however, would exceed the luxury tax threshold this season by about $200,000 (or $400,000 because of the dollar for dollar tax in doing so). That could be mitigated in a subsequent trade fairly easily or in this one by sending an expiring contract to Philly.

Exhale.

Remember, I made this up. It is speculation. Your additional speculation is encouraged in the “Comments” section. But this is not a report of anything other than wishful thinking.

Questions/musings off the top of my head:

1. This sucks.

3. What effect will the lockout and its negotiations have on player contracts – specifically will teams be able to sign more stringent non-guaranteed contracts allowing them to cut players as easily as NFL teams?

4. Can thought #3 be retroactively applied to Kyle Lowry’s contract? (Just kidding, Kyle is going to start playing better any day now. And it won’t matter anyway as his contract was signed before the lockout – remember KG’s monster deal that was effectively grandfathered into the 1999 CBA?)

5. With the NFL and now the NBA likely headed toward a lockout, I need to get back into a serious fantasy baseball league. Or start following the NHL (please, no).

Not only is this interesting because the Rockets’ back-up center, Brad Miller or Jordan Hill, just got promoted, but also because of Yao Ming’s probable fate as a back-up center (or sit-down comedian) in the future. It is never too early to get excited about the next off season.

A starting center in the NBA*** makes anywhere between $918,000 (DeJuan Blair of the Spurs) and $17,686,000 (Yao) for the 2010-11 season. The average of all 30 starting center’s salaries is $7,385,140. However, because of the relative extremes on either edge of the salary range, I should note that the median salary for starting centers is $6,213,458. The Spurs are employing the cheapest starter by almost half the salary of the second cheapest. Yao Ming and Dwight Howard are the highest paid by over $4 million and $3 million, respectively.

I am trying to restrain myself from writing about DeJuan Blair’s lack of an ACL in each knee…not nearly as much irony as that time the US Consumer Product Safety Commission recalled 80,000 lapel buttons promoting “Toy Safety” because the buttons: a) had sharp edges, b) used lead paint, and c) had parts that could break off and be swallowed…but worth mentioning.

So Yao makes a lot of money, even in comparison to other starting centers, who in turn make a lot of money compared to me. I just hope that they each have that special someone (or two or three or four someones) stashed in different cities to shower with gifts because: “Presents are the best way to show someone you care. It is like this tangible thing that you can point to and say, ‘Hey man, I love you this many dollars worth.’”

The Rockets’ intended back-up centers, Brad Miller and Jordan Hill, will make $4,400,000 and $2,669,520, respectively. The 30 second-string centers average $3,368,216, or 45% of the salary of those who tip-off. The median was found to be at about the half mark as well, $3,287,320. So, although the Rockets are paying a premium at starting center this season, backup center is a potential area of cost efficiency. Jordan Hill is close enough to serviceable already, and he is still bursting with defensive intensity and potential. Coupled with the fact that he has more career left in him than Miller, does it not make sense to find out just how much the Rockets have with him? At the very least he can demonstrate trade value.

Hill’s value jumps off the page when his statistics are extrapolated over 40 minutes from the 18.7 he actually averages. On a 40 minute per game basis, Hill would average 12.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and a startling 3.5 blocks – 9th in the league per 40 minutes. There is plenty of room for improvement, especially considering Hill was a more efficient scorer and better rebounder for the Rockets last season. Hill would probably never see 40 minutes, at least on a regular basis, but he is finding ways to contribute at a cost below the average wage. It is worth wondering, too, how many rebounds are being taken away by a certain Argentine playing out of his mind.

Additionally, if Hill is given a chance to develop this season with significant playing time, he provides a small comfort for next season when Yao’s contract will surely be scaled back or non-existent. Now would seemingly be the time to ascertain Hill’s value playing center next to Luis Scola. Else the Rockets must attain a starting caliber pivot via trade or free agency for next season.

I would hope that we are all in agreement that Yao’s on-court production does not warrant his stature as the highest paid player at his position. His production was more than passable as a back up however, which begs the question: Are the Rockets able to transition Yao into a Bill Walton-esque role off the bench?  After career threatening injuries cut short Walton’s starting gig with the Portland Trailblazers and San Diego/LA Clippers, Walton reinvented himself with the help of Red Auerbach as a role player in Boston. As a Celtic, Walton came off the bench in the 1985-86 season to average almost 20 minutes in 80 games, more games than he had ever previously played in one season. He shot efficiently and rebounded and blocked shots at close to his career rates to help the Celtics win the title that year.

Granted, Houston will not be able to surround Yao with multiple Hall of Famers, thereby all but ruling out a championship. But could Yao reinvent his role on the team to possibly be employed as a cooler to stop opposing teams’ runs or a closer to finish games? Can a team handle that type of player rotation? Would it be a safety blanket players know they can fall back upon or a disruption that destroys cohesion?

If I had to sum up the Rockets’ plan going forward in one word, it would be: Strategery. But does Daryl Morey have a Lockbox for this particular scenario?

*Seinfeld reference – The Strike featuring Festivus and The Human Fund

**Obviously Yao did not die last night, but his career is asking, “What are you doing?” To which Yao’s feet are replying, “I’m burying you.” Not only that, but those bass turds are working me, as a Rockets fan, over like a speed bag.

Every time Yao dives for a loose ball or takes a charge, I cringe, waiting for the sucker punch below the belt. These two illustrations capture the feelings I can expect while Yao is on the court:

1) In high school, while playing lacrosse, my best friend successfully deflected a shot with a certain region that should otherwise be protected by a cup. He crumpled to the ground, rolled over twice in agony, then sprang to his feet and sprinted about 30 yards down the field. All of that while stripping himself of his pads and simultaneously pulling his shorts away from contact with the hurt region. It took him awhile to get his house in order.

2) Milliseconds after teeing off the par 3, No. 7 at Old Brickyard in Dallas, my shallowly struck ball reversed direction off a protruding a railroad tie framing the front of the tee box. Pain erupted from that certain area as my backswing was cut short. A few moments later, from the fetal position, I realized the pain was coming from my thigh and not my wedding tackle. While I had a welt the size of a golf ball for over a week on my inner thigh, I was able to take a drop and card a well earned 5 (tee shot, drop, hit to green, two-putt).

As long as the Rockets are dependent on Yao, I am going to experience the emotional equivalent of #1 or #2 every time Yao hits the deck.  Will I sigh in relief at what was surely a close call and continue playing along? Or do I suffer the hard rubber ball to the groin of a lost season when Yao breaks his foot?

Either way, Yao is painful at $17 million.

***According to Yahoo! Sports depth charts

A quick primer: The NBA has a limit teams can spend on player salaries called a salary cap. Much like the national budget, this cap is routinely exceeded. To preserve the intent of the salary cap, the NBA has a luxury tax that assesses a dollar-for-dollar fine to teams in the amount they exceed it. The luxury tax does its job fairly well, but deep pocketed owners can be impervious.

Also, for your ‘glossing over’ pleasure:

1. The 2010-11 NBA Salary Cap is $58,044,000 and the Luxury Tax Threshold is $70,307,000.
2. For the 2010-11 season, the Rockets have player salary obligations totaling $72,319,761 (not including newly signed Eric Dampier).
3. Yao Ming will make $17,686,100 this season, and his contract expires after this season.
4. Shane Battier ($7,354,500), Jared Jeffries ($6,883,800), Aaron Brooks ($2,016,692), and Chuck Hayes ($1,972,500) also have expiring contracts – totaling $18,227,492.
5. The Rockets have a total of $35,913,592 (#2 + #4) in expiring contracts, roughly half of which is attributable to Yao.
6. The Salary Cap figure is stipulated by the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), which the NBA (League Office, Teams, Players, etc.) has been operating since 2005.
7. The CBA expires after this season, making the 2011-12 Salary Cap unknown.
8. Current CBA negotiations between the Player’s Association and the League Office are moving slowly. The League Office wants to reduce player salaries thus instituting a lower salary cap.

So…Yao Ming…(insert horrible “you don’t even have to say there’s an elephant in the room because the dude is already huge” joke). Yao is the 8^th highest paid player in the NBA, but the Rockets are only planning to play him 24 minutes a game. This almost makes him a safe entry as the fourth choice in the “would you rather be a MLB bullpen catcher, back-up NFL QB, or professional golfer?” question.

One might consider the Rockets lucky that Yao’s contract expires after this season as his salary would no longer count against the team’s salary cap. The Rockets could therefore use that space to acquire a healthier, 7’5”, dominantly skilled, immediately-marketable- to-a-nation-of-billions player. Except if that were the case, I would not have had the chance to mention my mother in the disclaimer above, and we would all lose out.

No, the Rockets will not immediately have Yao’s $17 million at their disposal. While that money is removed from the Rockets’ payroll, it is still applied to their salary cap at the end of the season in the form of a “free agent amount,” or cap hold.** Larry Coon is a little more technical in his explanation than me and my asterisk.*** Cap holds are a necessary pain as they close a loophole that would allow a team to circumvent the salary cap.****

Cap holds can follow teams around for a long time.

How long?

Good thing you asked or I would not have been able to drop this little nugget: Does the name LaSalle Thompson mean anything to you? Indiana’s cap has had his $854,389 clogging its system like a bunch of swallowed gum. The guy last played in the NBA during the year of the following events:

Princess Diana was buried, Bill Clinton was sworn in a second time, the Dow Jones first closed above 7,000, the Heaven’s Gate cult committed suicide, and my favorite episode of Seinfeld, The Voice, aired – “Attention Play Now employees, George Costanza’s handicapped bathroom is now open on the sixteenth floor to all employees and their families.”

Essentially cap holds go away when a free agent signs with a team, new or former, or is renounced by his former team. If a free agent resigns with his former team, the cap hold amount is replaced by his new contract amount. If the free agent signs with a new team, the cap hold is erased from his former team’s salary cap. The reason for the longevity of some cap holds, like Mr. Thompson’s, is explained here.

So the Rockets must first decide their plans for Yao and the players mentioned in #4, above, in order to begin to calculate the amount of money they will available under the salary cap next summer. But this is currently rendered impossible due to the Collective Bargaining Agreement expiring after this season.

The Rockets are able to plan ahead in a limited capacity as the fundamental purpose of the future CBA will remain unchanged from what is currently in place: namely that the NBA needs it to operate. Profits will still be divided amongst the players and teams, players will have contracts, teams will be able to draft, sign and trade players, etc.

Ideally, a team would not want to allocate 24% (30% of the cap) of its payroll to a player who is only going to play the league average of minutes per game. Yet, the Rockets have no choice this season. Which makes the following points of great interest to me: a) can Coach Rick Adelman incorporate Yao into a successful rotation; b) how will the front office assess Yao’s performance in order to understand his value going forward into future seasons; and c) how will (a) affect (b)?

We can evaluate the first point in terms of wins and losses. If Adelman pulls it off, the Rockets win more games. To evaluate the second point would require Dustin Hoffman’s character from Rainman and a book on actuarial sciences.

That is not to diminish Adelman’s role but to highlight that no one knows if Yao is going to be Rik Smits or Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Both were tall, both had issues with their feet (presumably due to their size), but only the latter recovered well enough to extend his career for a meaningful duration.

It is guess work on how much longer Yao can last. Likewise, no one knows what the exact terms of the new CBA will be or what next year’s salary cap will be. There are significant unknown variables that the Rockets must take into account when formulating a plan.

Ideally, Yao makes it through the entire season under the imposed time constraints. Ideally^2, Adelman effectively incorporates Yao into a winning rotation. Then, at the very least, the Rockets would have an idea of Yao’s future effectiveness and a foundation from which to negotiate a new contract.

Yao in a diminished role is still a valuable asset to keep on the team. I have no knowledge of the Rockets’ revenues, much less the amount above league average that is attributable solely to Yao/China. But according to Tad Brown, the Rockets’ CEO, five Chinese companies have courtside signs, and Anheuser-Busch and HP have signs in Mandarin at the team’s arena in Houston. While the Rockets must share the broadcast and merchandise revenue equally with the other teams, the team keeps 60% of revenue generated from its arena signage. At what cost does that figure justify keeping Yao?

*“Our offense is like the Pythagorean Theorem.  There is no answer.” – Shaq

**Yao Ming’s cap hold can be described in terms, very rough terms, as a situation that occurs when you are on a budget but are still taking your girlfriend out to a nice dinner at her favorite spot. Let’s pretend that you have a certain amount of monetary space on your credit card, which, if exceeded, will result in embarrassment leading to irreconcilable differences.

At the restaurant, you are waiting for your girlfriend to order what she wants so that you can make your order based upon how much of your budget her order eats up. But she tells the waiter to come back to her because she can’t decide. You don’t know what she is going to order, but have to book it as the max to accommodate her future decision. Until she makes that decision, your budget is restricted by the highest amount she could spend ordering.

Your budget has been slapped with a cap hold.

Cap holds, however, are league enforced. So instead of you getting to estimate her cost, the maître d’ remembers what she ordered on your last date, takes your credit card and bills her meal in advance, plus 5% more. (The percentage varies based upon the player’s previous contract. Yao’s dictates a 5% increase.)

*** “little more technical” = better

**** The loophole is created by the Larry Bird Exception (which allows teams to exceed the salary cap to resign its own free agents). Without the cap hold, a team could:

- let their expiring contracted players become free agents,

-sign other teams’ free agents with the cap space vacated by those free agents, and then

-use the Bird Exceptions to go over the Salary Cap to resign their own free agents.

On the Rockets-Knicks side, Houston got the right to swap first round picks with Knicks in 2011 as long as it is not the number one overall pick, and the Rockets lay claim to the Knicks 2012 first round pick as long as it is outside the top five picks (in which case the claim is rolled over to the proceeding draft and so on until 2015 when it turns into second round picks).

The Knicks got Tracy McGrady. And his desire to succeed despite all obstacles.

The Rockets got Knicks’ 2009 First Round pick, Jordan Hill, and Jared Jeffries bloated contract.

The Knicks got enough cap space in the summer of 2010 to raise and, subsequently, crush the hopes of their fans like a piñata at a Quinceañera party. Except instead of candy, out spilled five future years of mediocrity.

(Seriously, what is the difference between Amare Stoudemire and Allan Houston at this point? This is not a rhetorical question…Both played for absurd contracts that essentially pay by the point. Expectations of returning the team to glory of years past are the same. Both players missed significant time due to injury…The answer is, as Alex Trebec would say: “Height. We were looking for height.“ By the way, if you enjoy laughter, it is worth watching the 4:40 mark of that video.)

Besides making a large group of Northerners feel worse than they already did, the real value for the Rockets is the right to swap picks in the 2011 draft. Yes, Jordan Hill has potential. But he is a known commodity after a year of NBA service. If the Rockets are using the pick as a piece of a trade, nothing entices a stupid GM like the projected potential of a high draft pick. Below are some more reasons the 2011 pick is the most valuable of what the Rockets got from the Knicks, in the context of a potential trade.

No. 1 The picks are assets that do not count against the salary cap until the summer of their respective draft. You can think of them as liquid assets that are easily transferrable unlike players with contracts that must be fit within certain parameters. If something is easy to move, it has that much more value.

No. 2 The second Knicks’ pick is top five protected. Historically, value decreases significantly after the 5^th pick. This is well described by Elena Bergeron: “No-brainer picks at the top of the pile typically account for an estimated wins average somewhere between 7.5 and 4.5 every year. Between picks 6 and 10, the difference in how a potential draftee will sway a team’s fortune barely varies more than a single game. So, even if your team has a lottery pick, the talent available once the first five are off the table isn’t comparable.”

No. 3 The Knicks would seem to be more likely to have a worse record in the 2010/11 season than subsequent seasons, having had only one off-season to improve their roster (see reason 4) from a pathetic 29-53 campaign.*

By the 2012 draft, the Knicks will have had two summers to rebuild and improve their record. The Knicks will have about $42 million in committed salary heading into next summer. That allows them about $16 million to upgrade their roster further, depending on where the cap is next year.

No. 4 The Knicks did upgrade their roster heading into this season…just like your friend upgraded his living situation from a rent he couldn’t afford to his parent’s house. If Amare’ Stoudemire, Raymond Felton, Ronny Turiaf, and Anthony Randolph are considered upgrades, then who were they running out before?

To answer that question, the Knicks’ most heavily used starting rotation last year was Chris Duhon, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Jared Jeffries, and David Lee. Better combinations could be found in a port-o-john. This upcoming season, the Knicks could conceivably start Ray Felton, Bill Walker, Gallinari, Anthony Randolph, and Stoudemire.

Felton is good at…um…running fast while dribbling. He continues a long line of Tar Heel ineptitude at the PG spot (video of one of my favorite basketball moments ever).

Bill Walker was going to be good, and I hope he overcomes all that bad luck. After this season.

Danilo Gallinari is a prototypical Euro import: shooter, long, white, and no defense (which could lead us to an inappropriate prophylactic joke (as opposed to the appropriate ones)). His 42.3 FG% is undermined because most of his shots are from behind the arc, where he sports a 57.2% eFG% (a measure that weighs made 3 point shots 1.5x more than made 2 pointers because, well, they are worth 1 more point which is 0.5 the value of a 2 pointer). His rebounding improved to almost five a game last year, his second in the NBA.

Randolph has the potential to be like Chris Webber – a PF who can score and pass and call timeouts. But how many performers reach their potential after 3 years of disappointment? Besides Lindsey Lohan.

Stoudemire is good if you like efficient scoring…on both ends of the floor, because he does not play defense (just like Allan Houston).

In summation, the Rockets took advantage of the Knicks’ desperation to sign a star this summer past. Houston’s only negative in the trade last season, Jared Jeffries’ contract, is now an asset. Besides his contract expiring after this season, Jeffries is a great defender who can defend four positions. Any team hoping to contend with the Heat or Lakers could use some of that. The draft picks are fantastic assets because of the hope they inspire. And the 2011 pick inspires more than the 2012 option.

*The Knicks spent $2,918,208 for each of their 29 wins last season on player salaries alone. For comparison, the Rockets spent $1,649,472 for each of their 42 wins, and the Cavaliers spent $1,391,957 for each of their league leading 61 wins.

Thank you, all, for the warm reception. It is much appreciated. I especially enjoyed the comments. They provided some ideas I had failed to incorporate for one reason or another.

Being my own editor, editing comes to mind (good thing I’m not a Mohel, zing). I felt that my simple post could have ended up at 736 pages if it wasn’t reined in at certain points. There are, obviously, many scenarios in which the Rockets could dupe the Nuggets out of their star. I chose to discuss the one that made the most sense to me, and I should have explained that. Luckily for all of us, we have a little time until season’s beginning, and I’m good for another couple thousand words between now and then.

I feel like I am taking crazy pills! I invented the piano key necktie!

One reader comment, courtesy of Bob Schmidt, lamented the depletion of depth my proposed trade created. Mr. Schmidt suggested, instead, offering Kevin Martin, Jared Jeffries and a draft pick – for Carmelo Anthony. That is a viable trade from a financial perspective. Remember, player salaries are typically the largest impediments to deal making, as they must be within 125% + $100,000. (i.e. Team 34 wants to trade Player H, who makes $1,000,000 to Team 11 for Player V, who makes $1,500,000. Team 34 would have to include another player because the max salary it can take back by trading just Player H is ($1,000,000×1.25) + $100,000 = $1,350,000.)

Kevin Martin, however, is such a valuable asset, I would hate for the Rockets to part ways with him. Obviously, that sentiment reeks of fandumb (a stupid play on words–fandom, but fitting as I have no insider knowledge of the Rockets front office). Because I do not want to get tangled in a web of Labor Theory economics, I am sticking to good, and very arguable, common sense.

Keep these figures in mind: Kevin Martin makes $10,600,005 this upcoming season and $11,519,840 and $12,439,675 in subsequent seasons 2011-12 and 2012-13, respectively.

Martin has averaged over 20 points per game for four straight years and is just now entering his supposed prime at 27 years of age. I am usually not one to put faith in points per game, as Dave Berri has more than proven it is the overhyped statistic in basketball: “Scoring dominates the perceptions of performance but does not capture a player’s contribution to wins.” But, and we are talking Sir Mix A Lot proportions, Martin scores in a most peculiar way. Yes, he shoots the ball like he’s Roseanne Rossannadanna trying to flick a sweat ball off Dr. Joyce Brother’s nose, but that is not the peculiar to which I was referring.

Martin is peculiar in that when he shoots the ball, there is a better chance of him scoring than not. That little facet of his game, one would assume, makes for a great basketball player. Call me crazy.

You’re crazy, man. You’re crazy. I like you, but you’re crazy.

For his career, Martin averages a 59.8% True Shooting Percentage (TSP – “a measure of shooting accuracy that takes into account 2-point field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws – basketballreference.com). Among active players, that puts him 4^th. This is a relevant statistic as it is one of the best measures of a basketball player’s scoring efficiency. eFG% is the other notable efficiency statistic, but it does not account for free throws (obscure trivia – Mike Dunleavy apparently developed the eFG% metric, and yet, he still signed Baron Davis to a now toxic contract after the 2008 season when Davis shot an eFG% of 48.3% when the league average that year was 49.8%).

If you happen to be a fan of logic, you could argue that Martin is actually second in true shooting percentage (behind the best shooter of all time, Steve Nash) because, of the three gentlemen ahead of him, one is named Dwight Howard (60.3% – 3^rd) and another goes by Amare’ Stoudemire (60.6% – 1^st). Both are good players but would we call them shooters?

No, we would not, and that answer barely necessitates qualifying. According to hoopdata.com, of Stoudemire’s 15.4 shots per game last season, he averaged 10 within 10 feet including 6.7 at the rim. His TSP for the 2009-10 season was 61.2%. Shocking. Howard had an even shorter tether to the paint as 9.4 of his 10.2 shots per game were within 10 feet. His TSP for the same season was 63.0%.Cough, Dunk Inflation, cough.

I’m an IRS agent. Everyone hates me.

Yes, dunking is cool. But cooler than a pull up 17 footer? I mean, I don’t see a bunch of 4^th graders dunking in pick-up games. So I think it is safe to assume they all want to be like Kevin Martin.

Last season, Martin played in only 46 games and had a relatively off year as he finished 13^th in TSP among shooting guards who played more than 25 minutes per game. And because that does not help my argument as much as the season before that, I am going to give you Martin’s 2008-09 numbers. In that season he played in a much more relevant 51 games, but was not traded half way through the season.

(You might be tempted to think, “But you just gave us Amare’ and Dwight’s numbers from last season. How about some consistency?” Fine, for those of you with the fine toothed comb: Stoudemire – 61.7% TSP, 14.1 shots per game total, 8.7 within 10 feet including 6.2 at the rim; Howard – 60.0% 12.4 total, 11.8 within 10 feet including 6.8 at the rim. Outside of Howard’s three percentage point dip, not that big a difference, and I wish now I had told you to look it up yourself.)

In 2008-09, Kevin Martin took 15.9 shots per game. That is almost two more than Stoudemire and three and a half more than Howard. Those differences are notable because Martin was not dunking 40-50% of his shots. His 15.9 shots per game breakdown to 3.1 at the rim, 1.2 within 10 feet, 1.4 between 10-15 feet, 4.7 between 16-23 feet, and 5.4 3-pointers.

Martin’s 2008-09 TSP was an absurd 60.1%. I use absurd, because almost two-thirds of his shots came from outside 16 feet. As I said before, TSP accounts for free throws which would help explain why Dwight Howard could ever have any type of high shooting percentage. In 2008-09 Howard made 6.5 of his 10.9 attempts from the stripe per game. Stoudemire made 6.1 of 7.3. Kevin Martin made 9 of his 10.3 attempts per game.

I find that interesting because if most of Martin’s shots are long range, how is he getting to the line more frequently than two very active in the post, big men?

Investors?

Now that we have proven Martin is a scorer, let us recall those 2-comma figures I noted above. Why? Because, not only do the Rockets have one of the most efficient shooters in a game heavily reliant on shooting, they have him at a cost below market value for such a trait. Stoudemire just signed a $100 million contract that will pay him an average of $20 million a year. Dwight Howard made $15.2 million last season after signing an $80 million dollar extension three summers ago. Steve Nash made $10.3 million last year but, much like Jennifer Aniston, he is willing to settle to get a baby…err, ring.

In sum, the Rockets have a player John Hollinger of ESPN labeled a “dark horse threat to lead the league in scoring” before the 2009-10 (granted that was predicated on Martin playing for Sacramento as their number one option) for a price that does not limit the team from acquiring more/larger contracts. Their flexibility remains intact by keeping him rather than trading him.

Dale, you’re not licking dog $***, okay? They’re kids.

So, instead of trading a supremely efficient scorer for a grossly inefficient player, why not be patient and wait for an opportunity to build wisely. If the Nuggets trade their cornerstone then it does not make much sense for them to keep the…patio?…I couldn’t extend that metaphor quite how I wanted. Trading Melo likely signals a reset, leaving superfluous an alternate Denver Nugget.

A plausible trade scenario, I think, would be for the 34 year old point guard, Chauncey Billups.

With 2 years at roughly $13 million per, acquiring Billups is a fairly limited risk, as Hollinger has noted that historically big guards who shoot the 3-ball well hold up longer (see Jason Kidd). He shoots well and has extensive playoff experience. He has played with a slippery two guard before in Rip Hamilton and is a much more capable set up man than either of our potential starters at the point.

To acquire Billups and his $13,150,000, the Rockets could send Aaron Brooks ($2,016,692), Jared Jeffries ($6,883,800) and either Patrick Patterson ($1,823,280) or Jordan Hill ($2,669,520). (Why Aaron Brooks should be traded, regardless.)

In my fantasy leagues, I am always the jerk who sends out semi-ridiculous trades and gets offended when they are rejected. That being said, I am not completely sure that Billups is worth quite as much as I just laid out because the Rockets might be able to get more for those pieces in a different package.

Billups would unquestionably be an upgrade and provide leadership. While he has big game experience, however, I would be more than hesitant if the ball were to end up in his hands with the clock ticking down. I believe strongly that his big game persona is over dramatized, and I would much rather have Yao or Martin taking a game determining shot.

I am leaning toward thinking the Nuggets are not our best trade partner.

Without further ado, I’m excited to welcome the newest contributor to Red94, Connor Winn.  Henceforth, Connor will serve as our resident capologist, edifying you on those matters so critical to discourse, yet so horrifically taxing upon the mind.

For further acquaintance, here’s a self-written bio:

Connor Winn has lived in Houston most of his life. He graduated Memorial High School in 2002 and graduated Wake Forest University in 2006. In 2003 he played a pick up game with a then high school senior named Chris Paul, whom he claims to have gotten past (while dribbling) but cannot provide any witnesses for substantiation. He did, however, play on several intramural championship teams in the realms of football, soccer and softball, barely missing out in basketball, a loose definition of barely.

Mr. Winn got a job in Houston working in real estate development in early 2007 where he learned the backroom wonders of financial analysis and fell in love with Excel. After the real estate markets tanked, Mr. Winn moved to Washington DC where he thought a Political Science degree might be worth something; it wasn’t. After a year of internships and part time work, he moved back to Texas.  Recently, Mr. Winn earned a contract analyst position with an offshore E&P company in Houston.

Mr. Winn enjoys playing, watching and reading basketball. The maturation of his sports fandom coincided with the rise of Clutch City. He is addicted to golf; he sucks at golf. He plays fantasy sports, and continues to watch Seinfeld. Mad Men is his favorite contemporary show. (He supposes that he is your typical 20-something.)

Having tended to formalities, we need to get down to business, in light of today’s monumental news.  In his first contribution to Red94, Mr. Winn has addressed the issue of ‘Melo to the Rockets.  What ensues are his words:

Hello.

Certain things boggle my mind.  Women for example, do it quite often – What’s not to like about a short, stocky, bald man who is unemployed and lives with his parents?* Daryl Morey does it too, for a myriad of reasons, beginning with the idea that I know he is thinking multiple steps ahead of me with his proprietary metrics and army of dorks. Well, you know what Daryl? I won my 12 team, fantasy football league last year (I am not completely sure that fits, but as you do not know me, I had to offer credentials).

Melo would bring star power, but at what cost?

One important facet of trading for Carmelo Anthony is his trade kicker. As noted by shamsports.com, Anthony has a trade kicker of the lesser value of 5% of his contract or $1 million (in this case, 5% is equal to $857,462, so that is our figure). That 5% on top of his original salary of $17,149,243 cheerfully arrives at an $18,006,705 cap hit. The Rockets do not, of course, have to send outgoing contracts equal to that value as the rules state they must be within 125% plus $100,000 dollars of the incoming salary, or at a minimum $14,325,364 for Melo alone.

The Nuggets’ asking price might presumably start with Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill and the Knicks draft picks, Houston’s most attractive attainable assets. This is where faith in the Morey system allows me to sleep at night. Morey has consistently proven his ability to acquire talents such as those via draft gems (Hayes, Brooks, Landry, etc.) or downright mean trades (Lowry, Hill, picks). I know we get attached to players like Carl Landry when a second round pick contributes mightily to the team with jaw dropping athleticism and a deft touch. But we should rest easy for two reasons: 1) There is no evidence that Morey will stop delivering, and 2) LeBron James is only the most recent, though easily most egregious, example of the lack of reciprocal loyalty in the modern era (not hatin’, just sayin’).

Budinger and Hill are appealing precisely because their potential far outweigh their cost, i.e. they are cheap. Combined they make $3,450,391, leaving a $10,874,973 hole to fill (just for Carmelo). If we add the expiring contract of Shane Battier ($7,354,400 and my personal favorite Rocket – just so you know that this is hard for me too), we are still $3,520,573 short.

The Nuggets could opt to take back Jared Jeffries’ $6,883,800 expiring contract as well. This would leave them room to foist Chris Anderson’s $4,533,300 contract on the Rockets. Houston would thus lose all the depth at wing so meticulously built (perhaps, precisely for a trade such as this) and take a 32 year old back-up power forward whose sole attribute is his athleticism and whose contract runs through 2014?…In the words of Tom Arnold, “How about a courtesy flush?”

Et tu, Rahat?

Last Spring the Rockets were on the verge of trading for Amare Stoudemire, and now Carmelo Anthony is linked to the Clutch City? I know that the Rockets haven’t pursued Melo outright, but the sheer juxtaposition of such names with this franchise does not exactly evoke feelings of the Heart of a Champion. Those feelings are centered on obsequious fasting during Ramadan and Vernon Maxwell (02:30), not Stop Snitchin’ and certainly not punching and running (00:40).

*If you don’t like Seinfeld then one or two scenarios will play out: a) you won’t understand some of my references – just type them into Google and you’ll be better for it just like my former roommate; b) you may not enjoy my humor in general.

Again, non-simultaneous trades are not available when a team trades away multiple players (aggregates). Let’s say a team has a $4 million player and a $5 million player, and uses the Traded Player exception to trade for an $8 million player. Even though they trade away more salary ($9 million) than they receive ($8 million), the fact that they aggregated the two players means they do not gain a Traded Player exception. However, it is sometimes possible to reorganize these trades so that players technically are not aggregated. A good example of this occurred in 2004 when Houston traded Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley and Kelvin Cato to Orlando for Tracy McGrady, Juwan Howard, Tyronn Lue and Reece Gaines. As a single trade, it could only be simultaneous since multiple players were moving each way. However, Houston was able to reorganize the trade into three separate trades. In one trade, they acquired McGrady and Gaines for Mobley and Cato. In another trade, they acquired Howard and Lue using an existing Traded Player exception from their earlier Glen Rice trade. That left them trading Francis essentially by himself for nothing, which generated a new Traded Player exception in the amount of Francis’ base year value. From Orlando’s perspective, it was a single, simultaneous three-for-four trade.

via NBA Salary Cap FAQ.

That’s irony you can cut with a knife.

65. Are teams really competing on a level playing field? Since the tax rate is different in the different states and Canada, don’t the teams in a more “tax friendly” state have an advantage over the other teams?

Yes they do. For example, since Florida has no state income tax, an offer from Orlando will offer a higher net income than the same offer from Los Angeles. However, the league added a regulation to help neutralize the tax disadvantage of Canadian teams. All teams are permitted to offer a signing bonus of up to 20% (see question number 64). For U.S. residents in Canada, this bonus is taxed at just 15%. Using this bonus, Canadian teams can nearly achieve tax neutrality.

Performance incentives are classified as either “likely to be achieved” or “not likely to be achieved,” and are only included in team salary if they are “likely to be achieved.” The league office determines what is likely and what is not. Their guideline is whether the criterion was achieved in the previous season. For example, if a player had seven assists per game the previous season, then an incentive based on seven assists per game would probably be classified as “likely to be achieved,” but an incentive based on eight assists per game would probably be classified as “not likely to be achieved.”

Incentives must be structured so that they provide an incentive for positive achievement by the player or team, and are based upon numerical benchmarks (such as points per game or team wins) or generally recognized league honors (such as MVP or all-NBA first team). The numerical benchmarks must be specific — e.g., a bonus may be based on the player’s free throw percentage exceeds 80%, but may not be based on the player’s free throw percentage improving over his previous season’s percentage.

…which brought to mind the following:

When I ask Morey if he can think of any basketball statistic that can’t benefit a player at the expense of his team, he has to think hard. “Offensive rebounding,” he says, then reverses himself. “But even that can be counterproductive to the team if your job is to get back on defense.” It turns out there is no statistic that a basketball player accumulates that cannot be amassed selfishly. “We think about this deeply whenever we’re talking about contractual incentives,” he says. “We don’t want to incent a guy to do things that hurt the team” — and the amazing thing about basketball is how easy this is to do. “They all maximize what they think they’re being paid for,” he says. He laughs. “It’s a tough environment for a player now because you have a lot of teams starting to think differently. They’ve got to rethink how they’re getting paid.”

The issue of these contractual incentives is not a trivial one as they bear cap implications.  (I did not include the text of that part for the sake of simplicity, but click the link to read more.)  But I wonder – if the Rockets most likely do not base incentives upon conventional measures, and are also tight-lipped about their proprietary metrics – how does the league determine the likelihood of their incentives?

52. Can existing contracts be renegotiated?

A contract for four or more seasons can be renegotiated after the third anniversary of its signing, extension, or renegotiation that increased any seasons salary by more than 8%. Contracts for fewer than four seasons cannot be renegotiated. A contract cannot be renegotiated between March 1 and June 30 of any year. Only teams under the cap can renegotiate a contract, and the salary in the then-current season can be increased only to the extent that the team has room under the cap. Raises in subsequent years are limited to 10.5% of the salary in the first renegotiated season. The renegotiation may not contain a signing bonus. Contracts cannot be renegotiated downward players cant take a “pay cut” in order to create salary cap room for the team or to contain fewer seasons.

Again, a team over the salary cap cannot renegotiate a contract. An interesting case of this was Shawn Kemp with the Sonics. Kemp, who was unhappy with his contract and wanted to renegotiate, could not get a larger contract from the Sonics because they were over the cap. Kemp forced a trade to Cleveland, who was far enough under the cap at the time to give him the large contract he wanted. Kemp’s contract was renegotiated soon after the trade.

Fourteen years later, the Kemp saga is even more mind-blowing in retrospect - Jim McIlvaine was responsible for destroying a mainstay Western Conference powerhouse of the 90′s.  Recall that fresh off a finals defeat to the Bulls, Sonics management, looking for an interior presence to help push them over the top, signed McIlvaine to a 7-year, $33.6million contract, coming off a year in which he averaged a gaudy 2.3ppg and 2.9rpg (to go along with 2bpg).  Kemp, of the feeling that he had been underpaid, naturally was livid, and the rest, as they say, is history.

It’s interesting because I was not aware that it had been Cleveland’s ability to renegotiate Kemp’s contract which had facilitated the deal.  I’ve been of the opinion for some time that actual cap space is overrated (as top tier free agents do not switch teams outright) and that it is flexibility (ie: length of contract, cheap assets) which is critical for smart management.  But this example would seem to present one overlooked template through which cap space can be a boon.  Though of course, the circumstances would be rare (ie: a disgruntled star making less than the max, but eligible for renegotiation), but the possibility does exist.

Sidenote on Kemp: He’s the one guy from the 90′s, moreso than anyone else, whom, due to the suddenness of his tragic downfall, we view through a revisionist lens and romanticize as greater than what was reality.  To be clear, Shawn Kemp was incredible – elite defensively and the quintessential athletic specimen of his era.  But he’s spoken of today, in reminiscence, as the premiere forward of that age, and in truth, he was far from it.  Just check the numbers, hovering around 18ppg on a fast-paced Sonics bunch.

40. Does a team receive compensation when another team signs their free agent, like in some other sports?

No. A team that loses a free agent does not receive anything. It used to be the case in the NBA a long time ago, but not any more. The most famous example of this is when Gail Goodrich signed as a free agent with the New Orleans Jazz. The Lakers, Goodrich’s previous team, received a draft pick as compensation. That draft pick turned out to be Magic Johnson.

Was glancing through Coon this morning to get in some light pleasure reading and came across this nugget.