Huq: Can you confirm the rumblings that Portland will make Goran Dragic their top priority this summer?  Is that what you’ve also heard?

Golliver: Blazers Acting GM Chad Buchanan has repeatedly stated that the starting point guard position is the team’s No.1 priority. All indications are that after a truly awful season incumbent Raymond Felton won’t be anything but an absolute last, last, last resort to fill that role, if that. Heading into a rebuilding cycle, Dragic would fit Portland’s plans better than a number of the free agents that are coming available this summer because of his age and his proven skill level. You can find the logic behind Portland’s interest by simple process of elimination. He’s not too old (Nash, he’s not a retread (Miller), he’s not a 2 trying to play 1 (Bayless), he’s not a midget (Augustin), he’s not totally out of their league (Williams), he’s not a Felton clone (Nelson). Dragic has stated he wants his own team, Portland has been desperately searching for someone capable of handling that role on a long-term basis for years, he’s unrestricted and Portland has substantial cap space.

The only caveat is that this all is acting under the current operating protocol which could change at any moment. A new GM would potentially bring a new philosophy.

Huq: How much are the Blazers expected to have under the cap?

Golliver: At this point they are only expected to have two contracts that aren’t minimum or rookie deals on the books for next year: LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews (totaling $20.5 million). They’ll need to re-sign or match on Nicolas Batum and make a decision on J.J. Hickson. Various estimates have put them in the $15-$20 million range which we all know can change quickly. Buchanan has said the team’s goal is to add veteran pieces at the point guard and center positions using that space (via trade or outright signings) before going above the cap line to sign Batum. Whether they are able to accomplish that or not (or whether they are bluffing to appease fans and will actually proceed with a draft-oriented youth movement), who knows. But that’s the stated plan.

Huq: Do you think management would be open to trading for Kyle Lowry instead?  What would they be willing to offer?

Golliver: There’s only one reason I can see Portland not having interest in Lowry: his no contest plea to the incident in Las Vegas. This organization holds an incredibly high character standard for its players and views them as community ambassadors. I’m not sure that’s a serious enough red flag to prevent interest but that’s the lens they have operated through for years now.

As a player, though, Lowry would be very intriguing of course. To provide context, you have to realize what Portland just went through during the Raymond Felton Era. He showed up out of shape, melted down in fourth quarters time and again, called out his coach publicly, invited fans and critics to his home (broadcasting the name of the condo in which he lived) for a personal confrontation, put up the worst shooting numbers of his career (which got inflated a little during meaningless end of season games) and turned the ball over like crazy. Competency would be a luxury compared to Felton so of course Lowry’s skill level and reasonable contract would be very attractive to a team in this situation. Remember also that Portland does not have another option at point guard right now. Rookie guard Nolan Smith didn’t particularly look like an NBA player this season and he’s almost 24 years old. Whoever is brought in as the starter will be asked to play heavy minutes.

In terms of trades for Lowry, I’m not sure I see an obvious package. Portland is asset-deficient after executing a number of 3-for-1 or 2-1 deals over the previous couple of years and the younger guys have yet to break out and/or stay healthy. Portland’s best trade assets currently are its two lottery picks (assuming New Jersey’s transfers per the top-3 protection this season) and they’ve made it clear those picks are very available. Aldridge and Batum are guys they want long-term. Matthews is not untouchable but I doubt he would be of much interest. Portland would have trouble parting with him, anyway, because of the anticipated departure of Jamal Crawford and the health problems to Elliot Williams. I think to boil this down: unless Houston really wants a lottery pick this year there’s not a great deal to be found.

Huq: If the Magic do indeed deal Dwight Howard, would the Blazers be open to trading Aldridge for him or is that too great of a risk (without an extension)? Would they be able to manuever far enough beneath the cap to trade for Howard and also sign Deron Williams?

Golliver: I don’t foresee any situation in which Dwight Howard has interest in playing for Portland. I also don’t foresee any situation in which Deron Williams has interest in playing for Portland. That’s the major factor in almost all superstar moves these days unless a genius like Kevin O’Connor is involved. I don’t see that type of executive in either New Jersey or Orlando.

Comment here.

Rahat: To begin, was there any one thing, in your mind, that characterized Kevin McHale’s coaching stints with the Wolves?

Zach: One thing that characterized McHale’s coaching stint with the Wolves is failure. It’s not that he was bad as a coach; it’s just that he decided to step in to take the responsibility of having a bad team.  When he first took over the coaching position, he pulled a team from being a game under .500 and made them a winner for the season. He got guys to be competitive. In the second stint, he made a really awful team competitive, despite Randy Foye being the second best player on the team. So while I’d like to say that McHale’s stint was characterized by making teams competitive, I think it’s too mired in the failure before it to ignore that aspect.

Rahat: You mention that he made bad teams competitive.  Was that achieved through motivational charm or is he better with x’s and o’s than he is given credit for?

Zach: I think players, especially when KG and Cassell were in the mix during his first coaching stint, respect the pedigree. I know that sounds cliché but these guys know and respect what McHale has done in the league. And with him being such a smart and dangerous player, along with having a reputation of being tough (Rambis clothesline), guys are going to take his word on basketball related matters. However, that can only take you so far. He basically ran the same sets in his first stint as Flip was doing because he didn’t want to change the system too much. The second time around, it was a bit more chaotic because the team had gone through so much turnover with the roster from the previous season and they just didn’t have a lot of talent.

I think Kevin has a very good idea on the basics of X’s and O’s. I think he knows where guys should be both offensively and defensively in basic defenses and quick hitting plays. But it’s not a terribly elaborate scheme overall and his staff of assistants are going to be extremely influential on what exactly they run and how they gameplan and attack each opponent.

Rahat: You mention his assistants and their likely level of influence.  Theres a thinking that the front office will have quite a bit of say into game decisions. Does Kevin strike you as someone open to new ideas and collaboration?

Zach: I think Kevin is definitely open to new ideas. He’s able to joke about and recognize that his time building the Timberwolves was not really a success. Sure, they made the playoffs a bunch of years in a row, had multiple All-Stars and one of the best players of the decade. But they were constantly scrambling to add players, drafted horribly and gave out a big contract to Troy Hudson. Kevin recognizes that his views on the team might not always be the right way to go, so I think when you’re talking about assistant coaches (especially ones that are probably more well versed in X’s and O’s) giving input, he would absolutely be open and willing to implement their thoughts into his overall philosophy.

Rahat: While there may not be many expectations as almost everyone expects them to fail, it would certainly be nice for the Rockets if 7-footers Hasheem Thabeet and Jordan Hill became consistent contributors.  The amount of work McHale put in with Kevin Garnett has been well-documented.  Can you speak to his eagerness in developing young big men and how much time he sets aside for that apart from actual team coaching?

Zach: I don’t really know how much time he set apart from actual team coaching while he was the coach, but when he was making the decisions as the Wolves head guy, he loved working with Kevin Garnett. KG was a special brand of intense and competitive, which McHale could really identify with. If you have guys willing to put in the work, you’ve got a coach willing to teach them the ways of the post move. There has never been a better teacher for teaching post moves. He knows every counter to every defensive positioning, and he can get your skilled big men to be more than adequate with this process. But they’re going to have to be willing to listen and more willing to learn.

Rahat: Zach, finally, I wanted to get your take on Jonny Flynn who the Rockets acquired on draft night.  He’s a former high lottery pick but has been, for the most part, terrible thus far.  Is there any hope there?

Zach: Jonny is not the lost cause we make him out to be. But he’s also probably not capable of justifying his draft position. Jonny is quick but not quick enough. Jonny can score but not score well enough. I made the remark that Houston fans should expect to get Aaron Brooks back, only if Brooks had his powers taken away by the MonStars. Throw Jonny into a pick-and-roll heavy system and you’ll see him thrive a bit. He still is questionable at running a team and his defense will probably never be good. But he could be a spark off the bench if he buys into the system and gets some confidence back.

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Rahat: So let’s jump right to it.  What were the reactions to this trade on your end?

Michael: My first reaction was surprise. The Suns did not plan on being active at all at the deadline and if they did something I thought it would involve relieving their glut at the wings. Dragic has been ingrained as the point guard of the future for so long I just didn’t think it was possible he would be dealt. But he was brought in by a different regime and has really failed to take another step after his breakout sophomore season so perhaps it shouldn’t be such a surprise.

Overall I think the trade makes the Suns better this season but I question where it fits into any kind of a long-term plan. I think Brooks will provide the kind of spark for the second unit that Dragic failed to provide and he will provide the offense that unit has been missing since Leandro Barbosa was shipped out. But I look at Brooks’ advanced numbers and his horrible assist ratio and I just don’t love him as the Suns’ point guard of the future, especially coming from an all-world distributor like Steve Nash. From what you’ve seen of AB, how legitimate are these concerns?

Rahat: Brooks is not a playmaker, period.  He’s at his best when he has the green light to score and not worry about setting up the offense.  He struggles with interior passing and was so poor at post-entries that the team just gave up on having him on the same side of the court as Yao when the latter was healthy.  As you would imagine, he is also a pretty bad defender.

On the flip side, he’s a legitimate weapon.  The regression in his numbers this season can largely be attributed to an ankle injury and frustration over his contractual status.  His favorite victims are Derek Fisher and Steve Blake.  He can spot up, come off screens for 3′s, take his man off the dribble, and is also dangerous from mid-range.  Made huge strides last season with a floater near the basket, correcting a tendency from previous years to be stuffed at the rim.  While Brooks is primarily a scorer, one of his greatest virtues was that he rarely holds onto the ball; he is very decisive in his moves.

Brooks is a classic sparkplug but his weaknesses preclude anything more.

What is Dragic’s upside?

Michael: Dragic is much more of an all-around player who can impact the game on both ends. He thrives in an up-tempo game and is fantastic using his athleticism in the open court. He’s also studied at the school of Steve Nash for the last two and a half years and can often be caught trying to emulate some of Nash’s moves to set up teammates. His jumper can be streaky but he does a nice job of attacking the basket, leading some to believe his future may be more as a combo guard than a pure point as he has a little Manu Ginobili in him.

Ballhandling has always been a Dragic weakness as he is susceptible to pressure, but the biggest thing with him is confidence. He looked like a timid freshman scared to play with the varsity boys during his rookie season and then played and felt like he belonged during his breakout second season. This year we’ve seen more of the timid Dragic and he’s failed to take command of a Suns second unit that’s been in flux all season.

Like Dragic, Brooks has seemed to regress this season. Was his Most Improved Player season the outlier or is it his play this season?

Rahat: Aaron Brooks is not as bad as he has played this season nor is he as productive as his basic statistics last season would suggest.  A lot of that scoring you saw last season was inflated by usage he would not enjoy on a good team.

Can Dragic be a competent starter or is his upside as a super-sub?

Michael: That’s exactly what I thought on the subject of Brooks watching from afar.

Dragic can definitely be a competent starter. I’ve always thought his ceiling was as an above-average starter just outside of the top 10 point guards in the league. He’s certainly shown the ability to run a team, and at the end of last year I thought he might be ready to grow into a starter’s role now, just not for a team that starts Steve Nash.

I’m still puzzled as to why Dragic has struggled so much this season. His basic stats are very similar to last year, he just hasn’t had any of the monster games he enjoyed even in the regular season last season (before his breakout game on a national stage in Game 3 against the Spurs). His +/- numbers this season are atrocious and while I know they can be very variable year to year that corroborates the eye test in that he just doesn’t look as steady as he did last season.

I know Brooks has been unhappy that the Rockets decided not to give him an extension. What kind of deal do you think he’s looking for and what would you pay him? Do you think this is a player worth a sizable long-term investment?

Rahat: Outside of the top 10?  Wow, I did not realize he had that kind of upside.

Regarding Brooks, I had been advocating a trade since last season.  Based on what Kyle Lowry got, my assumption is that AB would be looking for $7mill-$8mill/year, a cost not palatable for the current structure of this Rockets team. This is not to say Brooks isn’t worth that much — that could be appropriate value on the right roster — but it wasn’t worth it for the Rockets.

Michael: The Suns had assembled a role players of the future rotation what with their young core of Dragic-Dudley-Childress-Warrick-Frye-Lopez-Gortat, and of that group Dragic was thought to have the most star potential. I would temper that by saying he has the most potential to get burned out on the NBA and go back to Europe if he can not regain his mojo in Houston. He has shown enough flashes of being a very good player that many in Phoenix are sad to see him go.

I think $7-8 mil is too much for another role player on a roster of well-paid role players that lacks any kind of a star or even future star when you look into the post-Nash future. At the same time the Suns can’t just let him go after sacrificing Dragic or a pick for him so I fear Brooks will join Josh Childress, Channing Frye and Hakim Warrick on the list of overpaid Suns role players.

As for Lowry, his 33.41 assist rate among point guards playing 25+ minutes sandwiches him between Chris Paul and John Wall, which is pretty good company. He’s a smart player. Not to mention tough and strong, a bulldog in the vein of Derek Fisher. Clearly, his place in the starting lineup isn’t translating to wins, but underestimating the B-List name at the one for Houston would be a mistake. He racked 10 dimes against the Lakers in a Dec. 1 loss, and is capable of damage.

Head over to ESPNLosAngeles for the full transcript of our discussion.

Rahat: Since our last talk, things seem to have stagnated.  The Nuggets looked close to landing Derrick Favors from the Nets until those talks fizzled.  Reports allege that Denver has no interest in dealing with the Knicks while New York remains Carmelo’s clear-cut first choice; seldom is Houston mentioned as a possible destination.  What is your assessment of where things currently stand?

Jeremy: Less than a week before the regular season begins Carmelo Anthony is still a Nugget.  If it were not for the stories that pop up every couple of weeks in the media there would be absolutely no outward signals that anything was amiss in Denver.  It has been business as usual around the Pepsi Center as on the court Denver prepares for what could potentially be a fourth consecutive 50 win season.  Knowing what we know, I feel like I am in an episode of the Twilight Zone where we know something that no one else does and it is driving us crazy that no one else will acknowledge it.  Carmelo wants to be traded, quit acting like the current group of players are going to be around by the
end of the season!

Then again, what else can they do?  The players and coaches know that any window for Denver to compete this season ends as soon as Carmelo is shipped out of town.  Right now they are getting free cable and are afraid if anyone finds out it is going to get turned off.

I am 100% certain Carmelo will be traded at some point in the next few months.  What I am less certain of is what information is to be believed and what information is purely fabricated.  Depending on who you listen to New Jersey is no longer interested in acquiring Melo and the Knicks are making progress.  Other reports say the Nets are still in the hunt and the Knicks still do not have what it takes to make a trade. Yet another report claims the Nets are dead set against trading Derrick Favors while someone else is proclaiming the Nuggets do not want him anymore anyway.

It is obvious that the two primary destinations are New York and New Jersey.  I believe Carmelo’s first, second and third choices are the Knicks.  However, the longer this drags out, the more desperate Carmelo, and his representatives, will get to complete a trade so that he can sign the 3 year, $65 million extension he so desperately desires.  This could turn into a great game of chicken before all is said and done.

Where does that leave the Rockets?  I am not sure if we can believe the reports that Houston is a location Carmelo would be willing to play or not.  It does not fit the bill as a major market along the lines of New York or Chicago. However, with Carmelo being interested in business as much as any other player it is possible the global marketing potential of being teamed up with Yao Ming could interest him, or at least his business representatives.  I have to wonder if Houston is a destination his handlers are more interested in then Carmelo is personally.

Regardless, as the trade deadline nears Melo will be more and more desperate to be somewhere other than Denver.  As time passes I certainly believe it is possible his list of potential destinations could expand.  The Rockets have some nice assets and Houston’s chances of acquiring Carmelo will grow as the deadline nears.

It is obvious Denver is in no hurry to ship Anthony out of town and while I think the more they wait the more they damage what could be their most precious asset, their own 2011 draft pick.  Still, as December 15 nears, the day players signed this summer can be included in trades, it may make sense to wait until then in order to have more players to fiddle around with.

In conclusion, Houston is certainly a long shot to acquire Carmelo, however, they probably deserve to be mentioned on the short list of potential destinations.

Rahat: If you had to make a prediction, where do you think he will land?

Jeremy: I believe New Jersey will ultimately be the team that that comes through with a deal the Nuggets can live with.  They have the best combination of market and assets thanks to the presence of a high quality young prospect in Derrick Favors, the ability to provide salary relief — they are able to send Devin Harris to Charlotte and Boris Diaw to Denver if they have to — and two first round picks, one of which belongs to the Warriors meaning Denver does not have to worry about Carmelo’s presence in New Jersey decreasing the value of the pick.

The only way I see a trade with New York coming to fruition is if Carmelo tells the other teams attempting to acquire him he will not agree to an extension with them.  The cupboard at MSG has been stripped bare thanks in large part to the Rockets.

Zach Lowe formerly of Celtics Hub and now writing The Point Forward on SI.com asked a great hypothetical question the other day.  What if the Nets had drafted DeMarcus Cousins instead of Favors?  My response was Carmelo would have been a Net a long time ago.  Even with Cousins in Sacramento, I am confident Newark will be where Anthony ends up.

This feeling probably feels vaguely familiar to Rockets fans; outside of last season’s injury-ridden affair (OK, maybe last year wasn’t that different), the Houston Rockets has been an outfit that has an outside chance to contend if the right amount of variables go its way. Those somewhat hopeful predictions are usually tempered with caution flags that warn of an impending implosion of the team if said promise is not fulfilled. This has gone on as Yao Ming’s prime has slipped away into the ether and McGrady’s health and passion disappeared similarly, a half-decade of missed attempts and broken dreams so damning that they would have left a fan base heartbroken had it not been for the machinations of one Daryl Morey and 22 games of pure bliss one winter. Still, this organization has teetered on and off of rebuilding mode for years, and given that this is a contract year (if an unusual one) for its franchise player, we may finally be on the precipice of a new age. Sadly, maybe a Yao-less age.

Many basketball viewers (including this very writer) find the concept of finances coming into play when regarding a team’s future personnel moves unseemly and cynical, but Rockets fans are not properly situated on their rockers if they don’t think that the global presence that Yao Ming has brought the Houston Rockets will be of preeminent importance as the team tries to negotiate with the giant man next summer. Rockets games are still often watched by more people than are most Super Bowls. Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes and Patrick Patterson, as great as the former two are and the latter is sure to be, all have shoe deals (hell, Ron Ron still has one from his one year in Rocket red). The Rockets may as well be China’s official team, and last I checked, David Stern has some holding interests in that part of the world.

This all means very little to the team’s on the court performance, which hasn’t ever been seen given all of the changes since the last time the big fella touched the hardwood for an actual NBA game. Most of the team’s contracts this offseason seemed suited towards keeping His Hugeness around. His Argentinian front court pal Luis Scola took in a hefty five-year deal, while Kyle Lowry and his effective entry passing was also paid above market value. Even the signing of Brad Miller seemed like a pick-up certainly aimed at curtailing too heavy a load on Yao’s shoulders (or more accurately, his recovering foot). But offseason prognostications haven’t exactly screamed “TITLE” for the Rockets; most have been the kind of moderate, semi-positive blather to which Rockets fans have grown accustomed. In fact, almost all of the preseason hype for this team whimpers, rather than yells, “mediocrity”, the one word with which no team wants to be associated.

“Rebuilding”? Maybe. David Kahn seems to think he can market that. “Outside chance”? Even better. Everyone loves a dark horse, though the Rockets have been some of the shadowiest in recent years. But “mediocre”? No team can sell that, not even in China. This organization has to be thankful that the current incarnation of the team hasn’t seen an NBA court yet, so hopes can still reign. Fans can even expect a lot of wins. But trying to sell resigning anyone, even the best thing to happen to this team in a decade, after a year of nothingness will be close to impossible.

This all leaves me with the same awful piece of meaningless nonsense I claimed to despise in the first sentence of this column, the idea of the “make or break” year; however, despite all of the new contracts, this team must think in such abstract terms. Because fans, as much as they (oh, who am I kidding? I mean “we”) wish to be considered differently, don’t think; they feel. And a max contract, even on the new max scale that is sure to come out of a new CBA next offseason (hopefully), will not feel right to a fan base that just wants to win. And doesn’t every fan base deserve that?

This team needs to win, and soon. Otherwise, the aura of good management and hope that has somehow sustained through a decade and a half of semi-irrelevance will, as much as I hate to sound cliched, break.

Rahat: On Wednesday, it was reported by Chris Mannix that Carmelo Anthony would be open to signing a contract extension with, in addition to the New York Knicks, the Houston Rockets or New Jersey Nets.  To begin, what do you think is the likelihood of Anthony being traded?

Jeremy: At this point it is clear that Carmelo Anthony is not convinced that Denver is the place for him.  As long as the Nuggets cannot be assured that he will return to play for them following this season it is only prudent to begin shopping him around the league to determine his value. Whatever that value is, it will certainly be greater than nothing, which is what the Nuggets could end up with should he exercise his early termination option and sign somewhere else following the 2010-11 season.  Because of that I do believe Carmelo will be traded sometime before the trade deadline in February.

Rahat: Up to this point, with the reports of his interest in the Knicks, I had assumed that for Anthony, the driving force was to, rather than leave Denver, simply go to New York; ie: I did not feel he actively wanted out of Denver.  With this latest report regarding Houston, it appears the motivation is to leave the Nuggets.  Did this come as a surprise to you and do you have any insight into his mindset in this force of departure?

Jeremy: Carmelo certainly does like Denver and he knows if he stays, he will be regarded as the best player in franchise history.  The reality is the Nuggets seemed to have seen their best chance at competing for a championship come and go last season when they were once again eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.  Carmelo realizes that and while Denver has done a pretty good job of pairing him with some extremely talented running mates in Allen Iverson and now Chauncey Billups most of the Nuggets key players are either injury prone or in the twilight of their careers.

I believe as you stated at first he was simply enthralled with playing in New York.  However, with the Nuggets dealing with a closing window and then seeing Miami pull off their free agent bonanza he began do dream about other possibilities.  I am not surprised that he would consider teams other than the Knicks.  If the driving force behind his decision to to be in the best position possible to win a championship, he would be crazy to only consider the Knicks simply because they are in New York.

I do think Houston is an odd fit and I question who leaked the report that Carmelo would consider the Rockets. Not to go all conspiracy theory on you, but I have to wonder if the Nuggets are doing their best to create some competition and urgency in an effort to driving up the price.

Houston is a team that can offer a young player or two, salary relief and draft picks.  The Knicks have reportedly offered Danillo Galinari, Eddy Curry’s expiring deal and a future draft pick, which will have to be in 2014 at the earliest.  That is not a great haul for an All-Star and borderline MVP candidate.  If the Nuggets want to save any face here, they must pull off a good deal and without teams competing against each other, Denver may struggle to do better than New York’s offer.  Houston could certainly create some competition, real or imagined.

Rahat: A leak from the Denver front offices could certainly be possible, but at the same time, I wonder what purpose that would ultimately serve insofar that Anthony would not want to unnecessarily deplete his new roster; were there really no interest, he would comeforth and refute the report, bringing us back to square one.

Regardless, let’s assume for a moment that the report of his interest is true.  Who among the three teams could offer the package most enticing to the Nuggets?  Among the Rockets’ assets, apart from their core, are Jordan Hill, Patrick Patterson, Chase Budinger, the expiring contracts of Shane Battier and Jared Jeffries, and the New York Knicks’ draft picks in 2011 and 2012.

Jeremy: That is a good point about Melo not wanting to weaken his future team and I thought about that, but I would not totally discount his desire to get paid as well.  The only way he gets his extension is if he is traded prior to the trade deadline.  Even a sign and trade would cost him money, especially considering it will be consummated under a new CBA.

The question is do the Nuggets try to make a deal that will keep them a playoff team, or do they decide to rebuild behind Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo and Nene.  Personally I think they are better off rebuilding.  I get no satisfaction out of first round exits year after year and I would like to see some bold action to attempt to bring a championship to Denver.

Out of the three teams Carmelo has been rumored to be interested in the Rockets, Knicks and Magic, I think the Magic are the least likely destination.  I doubt the Nuggets would be interested in Vince Carter, although he would fit the bill for a player they could acquire in an attempt to remain a playoff team next season and if Denver goes the picks and prospects route, Orlando could not offer Denver prospects and high draft picks.

As mentioned above the Knicks are prepared to offer Gallinari, Curry and a future draft pick.  If I was Denver I would hold out for Anthony Randolph in place of the pick, which would not come for a few years.

Before we get to the Rockets I think we need to mention another team.  The Nets could put together a nice package with Derrick Favors, Troy Murphy and a draft pick or two.  I seriously doubt they would part with Brooke Lopez, but he would probably seal the deal in favor of the Nets if he was available.

I have to wonder how much of their stockpile of assets Houston would be willing to give up.  Obviously the expiring contracts of Battier and Jeffries would be a must.  The two picks owed from the Knicks would be enticing, especially since by sending Melo to Houston those picks would be more valuable than if he were sent to New York. In fact, the value of those picks could be used as leverage the Nuggets could use with Houston as a Knicks team with Melo would decrease their value.  Jordan Hill and Patrick Patterson are nice assets too and either one of them would sweeten Houston’s proposal.

I think the decision comes down to the Knicks and Rockets, assuming Lopez is off limits, and if you want to know which offer I would select, you will have to check out my post on Friday where I name a fictitious winner of the Indian Summer of Carmelo.

While Carmelo may be interested in Houston, I wonder if the interest in mutual.  Daryl Morey is a fan of statistical analysis and efficiency on both ends of the floor.  Carmelo is not an overly efficient scorer, in fact when compared to the other elite scorers in the league he is one of the least efficient.  Plus I have always admired the way the Rockets play unselfishly with great ball movement and patience.  George Karl likes to refer to Carmelo as a ball stopper meaning when the ball hits Melo’s mitts, it stays there.  That does not seem to fit with what the Rockets like to do.  Then of course there is the matter of Carmelo’s defense, or lack thereof.  Carmelo is a big name, but is he a player that makes sense for the Rockets?

Rahat: I think New Jersey easily has the capacity to put together the best package if putting either of Brooke Lopez or Devin Harris in play.  Having said that, one wonders if Carmelo would still consider the Nets a desireable destination sans either of those players, given his entire motivation for this exit.

I feel the Rockets are the only team that can put together an attractive offer while still having enough left over to contend, given their aforementioned assets.

I want to get to your other point in a bit, but first, what do you think it would take (in a Rockets offer) at the bare minimum for the Nuggets to bite?  What’s an offer with which you would be pleased?

Jeremy: Because of the shortage of teams Carmelo would agree to sign an extension with I think the Nuggets will be choosing from a handful of less than exciting offers.  Even so in order to send Carmelo to the Rockets I personally would want at the very least the expiring contracts of Battier and Jeffries, Hill or Patterson, and the Knicks picks.  To guarantee the Rockets are the big winners they would probably have to add in Buddinger and $3 million.

In your opinion who should the Nuggets target in negotiations with the Rockets between Hill or Patterson?  Hill seems to have more potential, but Patterson would seem to be a safer, but less exciting prospect.  Would you agree?

Rahat: Pretty interesting that you feel that that would be all it takes; Rockets fans would be dancing in the streets if landing Carmelo without sacrificing either Aaron Brooks or Kevin Martin – I think most of us considered it a foregone conclusion that Brooks would be required to consummate a deal.

Your assessment of Patterson/Hill is dead on.  I think, given his ceiling, the Nuggets would prefer Hill, while ironically, the Rockets would prefer to keep Patterson, given that the latter is more ready to contribute.

Jeremy: I do not think Denver would be interested in Brooks due to the presence of Ty Lawson.  Denver would certainly welcome Kevin Martin, but I was working under the assumption, possibly a false one, that Martin was quasi-untouchable.  If the Nuggets are looking to rebuild and achieve some cap flexibility, which is the route I would prefer they go, Martin’s contract, while reasonable, might be more than they are interested in acquiring.

By the way, I would like to see Denver shed the contracts of Chris Andersen, four years $20 million and Renaldo Balkman, 3 years, $5.0 million in any trade involving Carmelo.  So take that for what it is worth.

Rahat: I had felt that either of Brooks/Martin would be necessary, not with Denver as an end destination necessarily, but as simply “value”, parlayed to another team at a later date if Denver so chooses.

The Rockets have a trade exception from the Ariza deal with which they could absorb Andersen, but I do not think they would be too eager for such a transaction given that he would cost them $10million/annually (due to tax implications.)

To revisit your earlier point: Melo’s inefficiency has been well-documented, especially amongst stat-heads.  One would imagine Morey would subscribe to this thinking, but at the same time, if drawing from his public statements, I don’t know that Morey is the staunch idealist he is characterized as by the media.

While intrinsic to conventional philosophy, he’s spoken many times of the need for a “star” and to that end, Carmelo Anthony would seem to fit that need.

Having watched him up close, are the criticisms warranted?  Is Melo truly elite and can he lead a team to a title?

Jeremy: Carmelo is an elite talent, but to this point in his career that talent has not translated into becoming a transcendent player on the court.  He can do almost anything he wants to on the court, including playing defense.  Sadly he places value on his ability to score and as a result does not utilize his other talents to help his team win.

There are few players who can score in as many was as Carmelo can, yet instead of exploiting the advantages the team earns due to the attention he receives from the opposition Melo frequently forces his way into the teeth of the defense in an attempt to prove he can do it.  Carmelo has never made that leap from I can do it, to we can do it and as a result makes things more difficult on himself than it needs to be which leads directly to the surprising void between his talent and his lack of efficiency.

After watching Carmelo play in Denver for seven seasons I have come to the conclusion the Nuggets are better off with someone else paying him $20 million a season.  Carmelo will absolutely get you at least 25 points a night and plenty of regular season wins.  Even so until he begins to value wins over accolades neither he nor his teams will reach their full potential.

He talks about winning championships and I do believe his desire to win a title is what is driving him to want to leave Denver, but he is constantly held back by his refusal to do what it takes on the court to earn one.

I firmly believe if Carmelo is your alpha dog, you are not winning a championship.

Do you believe Houston would go so far as to part with Kevin Martin, who was acquired less than a year ago to provide outside shooting and scoring punch to compliment Yao Ming, for a player who may be more talented, but less efficient and who is not even a mediocre shooter from behind the arc?

Rahat: I go back and forth on that one, as that’s a question which would make for a classic philosophical case-study.  Given each player’s inabilities on the defensive end, they probably can’t coexist at the wings – do you trade the poster-boy for offensive efficiency to finally fill the conventional “star” role?

I also wonder if Courtney Lee was acquired to make preparation for a Martin-Melo swap.  To answer/dodge your question, I don’t know, but I hope not.  This team would be scary explosive with Martin/Melo, while I could maintain (for this year, at leat) willful oblivion regarding their inabilities.

Rahat: Having watched him up close as a rookie during the Magic’s Finals run, can you tell us more about Courtney Lee? The impression I’ve gotten is that ‘he is what he is’, in that he doesn’t have room for much more growth, but won’t make many mistakes as a solid contributor – is that a fair assessment or does he have future potential?

Eddy: Yeah, Courtney Lee is what he is. At this stage in his career, Lee is a good role player — nothing more, nothing less. It’s doubtful that Lee will ever be more than, at best, a starting-caliber player in the NBA.

Rahat: Stan Van Gundy called him the best defender on that Magic team – can he be elite defensively?

Eddy: Sure, but it’s highly unlikely that Lee will transform into an elite defender. Lee did a lot of solid things defensively when he was with the Orlando Magic. But it seems like there’s some physical limitations that will prevent Lee from being more than a good defender in the league. Lee is a shooting guard that had some trouble against stronger players, especially when he was asked to defend them on the low block. This isn’t to say that Lee isn’t a net positive on defense because he is. However, it’d be unwise to expect a lot from Lee because there’s only so much he can do.

Rahat: The Rockets compare him to Shane Battier in terms of preparedness – do you see that cerebral aspect in his game (ie: attentiveness to detail, conservatism in approach)?

Eddy: Lee has a high basketball IQ, no question. People need to understand that head coach Stan Van Gundy is a demanding figure, more so on defense than anything else. And what was most impressive about Lee in his rookie season with the Magic was that it didn’t take him long to gain Van Gundy’s trust (easier said than done) and become a reliable wing defender that could do some things on offense here and there. This is cliche but Lee had a great feel for Orlando’s schemes on both ends of the floor. Lee knew his role, and that’s one of the main reasons why he eventually became the Magic’s starting shooting guard.

Rahat: What’s his skillset like? Can he create off the dribble?

Eddy: Lee is best suited as a spot-up shooter, though it’d be nice if he was more assertive offensively given his talents.

Can Lee create off the dribble?  Yes, but Lee is not great at generating his own offense if that makes any sense. It’s not uncommon to see Lee take a few dribbles and pull up for a mid-range jumper, but don’t expect him to consistently break down an opposing defender with the basketball in his hands. That’s asking too much. Lee can do a little bit of everything, like score at the rim and execute pick and rolls, yet there’s nothing he does offensively that stands out like crazy. Still, Lee is in a great situation with the Houston Rockets because the personnel on the roster should play to his strengths on offense.

Rahat Huq of Red94, Ryan Schwan of Hornets247, Tim Donahue of 8 points, 9 seconds, and Sebastian Pruiti of Nets are Scorching got together to provide assessments of the outgoing players from their respective ballclubs.

Once more, I got together with Glenn Logan of A Sea of Blue, SB Nation’s official Kentucky Wildcats blog, this time, to discuss forward Patrick Patterson.

Rahat: So to start, can you tell us Patrick’s strengths and weaknesses?

Glenn:

Strengths:

From an NBA perspective, Patterson’s strengths are his body, which is mature and NBA-ready.  He has good but not freakish athleticism, very good hands, long arms, an improving handle, good physical strength and a very high basketball IQ.  He is all about the team, and he and Chuck Hayes will set an unbelievable example attitude-wise.  Patterson has a good motor and hates to lose.

Patrick can pass in the post, he can get rebounds and guard people bigger than him.  He has good footwork and seems pretty durable.  He is as coachable as any young man you will ever find, and has the best attitude of any player I have ever had the pleasure to experience.  All you need to know about his work ethic is that he graduated from college in three years, and even though he is intelligent, he is not that smart.  That was all due to determination, planning, and execution.

Patterson can score inside and out to 20 feet, rebound, and guard his position.  He is better the closer to the basket he gets, but he has a nice touch and can shoot it fairly reliably from the college 3-point line.

Weaknesses:

Patrick’s perimeter shot is good, but not quite NBA-ready.  He is not as strong a finisher at the rim as I would like, particularly over size.  Patrick has a tendency to defer too much, and he hasn’t quite figured out when to assert himself and when to defer to others.  He also needs to improve his rebounding as far as consistency is concerned — he would have a 10-rebound game and follow that up with a 3-rebound game.  Patrick needs to learn to bring the rebounding every game.  Patterson also needs to learn how to guard smaller players.

Patterson needs to improve his ball handling to be a combo forward in the NBA.  His handle isn’t bad for college, but it needs to improve quite a bit before it will be NBA-ready, particularly his left hand.  Pat also has to learn to go to his left, which he almost never did in college.  Patterson was a great free throw shooter in his sophomore year, but not so much in his junior year.  That inconsistency needs some attention.  His shot release is a touch flat and a bit too much off the index finger, which puts him off line more than he should be.  He will have to learn the pick-and-roll, as that was not a big part of his college experience, but he should be good, especially as a screener.

Patterson is not a good shooter off the dribble, nor can he get his own shot yet.  Once he develops a better handle, those two skills should come, at least from 20 feet and in.

Rahat: Does he have a post-up game?

Glenn: Indeed he does.  The fist two years he played at Kentucky, Patrick Patterson was exclusively a post-up player and shot maybe twice from the arc.  He very rarely took a shot outside of 10 feet.  In fact, Patterson was among the most dominant post players in the SEC both his freshman and sophomore years.

It was for this reason and his relatively small size for an NBA post player that he came back to Kentucky for a third year.  In that year he focused on developing a perimeter game and getting to the basket off the dribble.  He was pretty successful in both efforts, and that definitely raised his stock in the eyes of NBA GM’s and coaches.

Rahat: I guess where I am confused is your emphasis upon his poor ball-handling.  Interesting because the ESPN graphic upon his drafting also cited this area as his weakness.  Most power forwards are relatively poor ball-handlers and very few can take their man off the dribble.  When you say that Patrick is a poor ball-handler, do you mean even for a power forward (which would make him downright awful for an NBA player), or do you mean for a combo-forward with hopes of playing some ’3′?

Glenn: I don’t believe I ever said Patrick Patterson was a poor ballhandler.  I believe I said his ballhandling wasn’t bad for college, but it wasn’t quite NBA ready, particularly his left hand.

For two years, Patterson played on the block as a back-to-the-basket player.  Last year, he made a determined effort to  improve his ballhandling and did so, and he was able to take his man off the dribble a few times.  The problem is, he really didn’t need to do it that much.

Patterson’s role in the offense last year was as the second option behind Cousins in the half-court, and the first or second option on the break.  When he was the first option, he ran the floor to get into position to receive one of many lobs from Wall or Bledsoe.  When he was the second option, Wall would try to get to the rim on the break, and if that failed, Patterson ran the secondary break and would spot up at the top of the key for a 3-point shot before the defense would get set up.  Since everyone played zone against UK, that spot was always open.

In the half court, option #1 for Kentucky was Cousins, usually on the left block because that’s where he could make that spin move to the baseline.  When the double-team came, if it came from the top, Patterson would slide into the short corner.  The ball would get rotated to Bledsoe or Wall, who would drive into the middle, draw Patterson’s defender, and Patrick would get the short jumper.  If the double team came from Patterson’s man, Cousins would dump it to Patterson for the dunk.

Patterson took basically shot the ball from four spots all year:  The right short corner, the right deep corner, the top of the key, and layups.  90% of those were off the catch, so he had very little actual opportunity to show off his ballhandling or use it.  But when he did, it was always to the right and usually off a catch near the elbow, where he would slash to the rim.

Patterson has an above-average handle for a 4-man, and a below-average handle for a 3.  He will get much better, primarily by developing his left hand so he is not so predictable, but he is not a bad ball handler for either position.

I have felt that if the Houston Rockets’ scouting department measures any particular prospect to wield superstar potential, and if the team can meet the asking price, they should make the move, almost regardless of the cost, to a reasonable extent.

For weeks now, the buzz from various sources, including the Chronicle’s own Jonathan Feigen, pertains to the Rockets allegedly having strong interest in Kentucky freshman DeMarcus Cousins.

To gain some greater insight into the man most rumored to be targeted in a trade-up, I got together with Glenn Logan of A Sea of Blue, SB Nation’s official Kentucky Wildcats blog.  What ensues is our conversation:

Rahat: Getting a chance to watch him up-close for a full year, what would you say are DeMarcus Cousins’ strengths and weaknesses, both on the court and between the ears?

Glenn:

Strengths:

• DeMarcus Cousins is a fearless competitor with remarkable physical gifts.  He is not a great leaper, but that belies his natural grace and extraordinary footwork, which is by far the most advanced I have seen in any college freshman.
• Offensively, Cousins can score in a variety of ways.  He doesn’t really play above the rim, but he is astonishingly quick for so massive a man, and he can get past or around almost anyone on the block.
• He is underrated as a face-up player because Calipari explicitly told him to leave that part of his game for professional development, and to be exclusively a post player in college.
• Cousins is the best college offensive rebounder to come around in a long while.  He is always a major threat on the glass, and is relentless in pursuit of the basketball.
• Jay Bilas has knocked Cousins for not being coachable, but he is mistaken.  Calipari convinced Cousins to completely abandon the parts of his game that Cousins enjoyed the most, i.e. the face-up part, in favor of becoming a dominant, back-to-the basket player.  He also convinced Cousins to hold his temper and use the perception of him as a hothead to his own advantage.
• Defensively, Cousins is one of the best post defenders I have seen in college, primarily due to the fact that he does not, ever, go for the shot fake.  He stays on the ground and raises those ridiculously long arms and forces you to make shots over them.  Most college players could not do that.
• Handle.  You would not believe how well Cousins handles the ball, because you have never seen it.  Calipari made him focus on running the floor and getting in position to score or rebound.  Plus, UK had plenty of ballhandlers.

Weaknesses:

• Motor.  Cousins tends to get tired and loaf up and down the court sometimes.
• Temper.  Despite the good work he has done, Cousins still has a chip on his shoulder that will take some maturing to remove.
• Attitude.  Cousins likes to argue with the officials.  This is not a good trait in a future NBA player, as the NBA officials have less patience with constant arguing than NCAA officials do.
• Maturity.  Cousins is still a big kid from a tough background that has not quite grown out of it.  He can mope when things go badly for him.
• Free throw shooting.  Cousins is flighty at the line.  He can make them all, but if he misses a couple, he tends to miss most of them.
• Mechanics.  Cousins flips up way too many soft shots for a post man in the NBA.  In college, they were tough to defend.  In the NBA, they will wind up in the stands.

Rahat: What’s his upside in the NBA?  To whom do you think he would make a good comparison?

Glenn: Cousins is capable of playing the 4 or the 5 in the NBA, and his perimeter game can really improve his range all the way out to the NBA 3-point line.  In addition, Cousins is capable of taking players of similar size off the dribble to the basket, although it is unlikely you will see him using the dribble to get a shot like a small forward would.  But Cousins is likely to have more dimensions to his game in the NBA than he did in college.

From a defensive perspective, Cousins’ outstanding footwork can only get better.  He will be able to take charges and generally keep slower players at bay, because he’ll be able to stay in front of him.  A player like Andrew Bynum would find himself working very hard to get into scoring position against Cousins, because Cousins is thick and strong in the legs and can keep him out of the post.

I really don’t follow the NBA that closely, so I am not really able to come up with a good comparison.  Sorry.  Maybe Andrew Bynum with a better perimeter game?

Rahat: What kind of system, players, or coaching does he need around him, if any specifically, to feel comfortable and succeed?

Glenn: I think Cousins needs a system where he won’t need to produce huge numbers right away.  He needs to be managed more than other players early in his career to keep the physicality and tempo of the NBA from getting to his somewhat volatile temper.

Coaching-wise, Cousins thrives on positivity.  A coach like Doc Rivers would be the best possible thing that could happen to him.

Cousins has fantastic hands, like suction cups.  He can catch anything, so any point guard will do.  He is also a better passer than he showed in college, so a team that emphasizes ball movement would be ideal for his skill set.  As far as pace goes, I think the way the game is played in the NBA these days, it doesn’t really matter how fast or slow the team plays.  He needs to get in better condition to play a truly up-tempo style like Boston.

Cousins needs a coach who is able to handle give-and-take.  A strict coach would clash with him, I think.  He is one of those guys who needs to understand why he is doing something, and a simple, “Do it because I say so,” is the quickest way to alienate him, and stunt his development.

Rahat: John Calipari recently said that Cousins is ”probably the most unfinished product in the draft.” John Thompson said, regarding Cousins, ”you can calm down a fool better than you can resurrect a corpse.”  How far away is DeMarcus from really contributing and do you feel it would be wise of an NBA team to put all its eggs in his basket and trade a king’s ransom to land him?

Glenn: DeMarcus Cousins is starter talent in the NBA in a couple of years.  I don’t know if he is All-Star material, but he is definitely starter talent.  What is that worth to an NBA team?  Cousins can bring all the little things, all the intangibles that NBA coaches and GM’s claim to want.  He can bring fierce intensity that will motivate his teammates, he can bring a relentlessness that will make them wonder why they aren’t working that hard.  Cousins can lead a team, believe it or not, when he becomes more mature.  He has a powerful but quirky personality that makes him easy to like when you get to know him.

Cousins is the kind of player you can use as a foundation for a championship team, in the mold of a Kendrick Perkins or Andrew Bynum.  These are players who aren’t really the superstars on the team, but they are the bricks and mortar of which the team is made, the guys who hold up the walls to the house.  That is the kind of guy DeMarcus Cousins is built to be, in the right situation.

I fully appreciate the contributions Ron made to this team last season, and it was definitely a surreal ride. But let’s be clear – he didn’t take this team anywhere against the Lakers and in fact, was a complete liability offensively.

For the series, Ron shot just 38% from the floor (28% from 3) in averaging his 15.6 points per game and was even more dreadful when we needed him most upon the injury to Yao, averaging just 9.5ppg in the last 4 games, on 28% shooting (and a terrifying 15% on his 26 3-point attempts.)

Ariza wasn’t brought here to get the team anywhere; Trevor was signed to be a complementary piece. He struggled early due to being forced into a high usage role out of necessity, but settled in very nicely after the arrival of Kevin Martin.

This time, he asked the questions.  For the rest of my conversation with Sam Holako, head over to ESPN TrueHoop Raptors Republic.

What follows is the transcript of our conversation:

Rahat: Eric Dampier’s partially guaranteed contract might be the single most attractive trade asset in play this summer.  Please explain the nature of his contract.

Rob: The value of Erick Dampier’s contract comes in layers. On a basic level, Damp seems to be on his way toward earning a paycheck next season worth a little more than $13 million, which obviously far exceeds his practical basketball value. So from that standpoint, he would seem damn near unmovable.

However, Dampier’s 2010-2011 salary is only guaranteed if he meets certain conditional performance requirements (triggers that would have guaranteed his salary included a specified number of All-Star appearances, minutes played, etc.), which he fell short of meeting. That means that theoretically, if the Mavs so choose, they could cut Dampier loose this summer at zero cost. $13 million in savings is obviously pretty damn important ($26 million when you consider the luxury tax implications), even for an owner like Mark Cuban. Still, the fact that Damp’s contract is unguaranteed only holds situation-specific value; though the fact that Dampier’s contract is unguaranteed obviously matters a great deal to Dallas, it wouldn’t really impact any other team in the league.

Although that’s not necessarily the case. Damp doesn’t have an early termination option, a player option, or even a team option, but a unique contractual situation that allows teams to decide whether or not to guarantee his 2010-2011 salary even after acquiring him. This makes Dampier a damn near invaluable trade chip for a potential sign-and-trade. By rule, the contractual assets on both sides of any trade have to be within 125% of one another (+$100,000, if I’m not mistaken), supposing both trade partners are over the cap. Damp’s contract would then be pretty useful for salary matching purposes, but with a latent benefit for the team acquiring Dampier.

Should circumstances dictate a sign-and-trade as the best option for any of this summer’s free agents (or even just a regular trade for a quality non-free agent player with a bigger contract), Dallas would likely have the inside track. Other teams could offer decent talent in a trade, but the Cavs, Heat, Raptors, etc. are never going to be satisfied in a talent-for-talent swap considering their potentially outgoing stars. Instead, Dallas can offer a good player on an expiring deal (Caron Butler, worth about $10.6 million next season) that the team can choose to either keep for the future or cut loose after one season of service, Damp’s $13 million in empty salary for which they won’t have to pay a penny, and possibly even the dynamic soon-to-be-sophomore, Rodrigue Beaubois. That allows a team losing it’s star a clear way to rebuild, as they take on no long-term salary, get a star-in-the-making in Beaubois, and can even keep Butler for a moderate cost if they choose to re-sign him.

That’s a pretty significant trade package for a team that would otherwise lose a billboard player and gain nothing in return, which could make Dallas a preferred sign-and-trade partner for a number of teams this summer.

Rahat: So who will the Mavericks be targeting?

Rob: Without trying to be too non-specific: anyone and everyone. LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Joe Johnson, all the way down the line, and to know which non-FA targets are on the Mavs radar would be almost impossible at this point. Dallas is in a weird place where they’re not particularly weak at any position, but still aren’t good enough to win a title.

PG – Kidd, Barea, Beaubois
SG – Butler, Terry, Beaubois
SF – Marion, Butler
PF – Nowitzki, Marion, Najera
C – Haywood, Dampier, Najera

Obviously Dampier will likely be out of the mix by next season and Butler could be as well, but even then, what is the clear point of emphasis in free agency? Depth at center is obviously important, particularly if the Mavs can’t hold on to Brendan Haywood, who is an unrestricted free agent. Other than that, it’s not like Dallas can plug a player into the starting lineup and call it a day. I think Butler is a little problematic as a member of the first unit, so if the Mavs could find a capable shooting guard that can score and defend, they could either trade Butler or move him to the bench.

Right now, Dallas is just looking for value. Dampier is a very attractive trade chip, but one with an expiration date, so the Mavs will be looking to find something for him this summer.

Rahat: What about Nowitzki?  Could he be in play this summer?  We know Cuban has been very loyal in the past, but with the window starting to close, might that change?  If Chris Bosh could be had in a sign and trade for Dirk, would Mark bite?

Rob: I don’t see any possible way that Dirk isn’t in a Maverick uniform next season. I know he’s technically a free agent if he chooses to be, but the Mavs will either keep him for one more year on his current deal, extend that deal, or he will opt-out and re-sign with the team. There’s too much history between Nowitzki and the Mavs, and everyone within the organization understands how central Dirk is to everything that the team does.

If Chris Bosh was a possibility in a sign-and-trade with Dirk as the cost, I think Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson would have to give that offer a hard look. I consider Nowitzki the better player today, but Dirk will turn 32 this summer while Bosh is just 26. That should be enough to at least keep Mark and Donnie on the line, although I don’t see trading Dirk as a particularly likely possibility, even with Bosh as the bounty. This would definitely be one of those cases where the brass would look to do right by Nowitzki should they ever choose to trade him, and Toronto these days doesn’t exactly qualify as “doing right.”

Bosh is a terrific player, and I’m sure the Mavs would love to have him through any other means, but in this case I think the cost would be a bit too great, both in terms of basketball fit/ability and sentimental value.

Rahat: With the latest salary cap projections, Larry Coon explains:

“The Miami Heat enter the summer with the clear goal of re-signing Wade and bringing in some help in the form of a big man such as Amare Stoudemire, Bosh or Carlos Boozer. But like any team looking to clear cap room, they would have had to let go of their own free agents — robbing them of their depth. Now, they will be able to re-sign Wade, lure a free agent like Stoudemire and still have $10-12 million left over to fill out their roster.”

What will be the Heat’s strategy and who will be their primary targets?

Matthew: Clearly, Wade’s number one. If the Heat lose him, this three-year plan falls apart. Luckily for the team, I feel it’s very very very unlikely Dwyane Wade leaves. If you’re the eternal optimist, the Heat then sign LeBron James and win the next 8 titles. That is not so likely.

I think that if any of the top free agents relocate, it will be via the sign&trade route, simply because if signing somewhere outright, they stand to lose $30million.  I can’t see someone leaving that much on the table.

Because of their cap space, the Heat could just send a draft pick (and a traded player exception) to the Raptors to facilitate such a manuever, the advantage being that they would not need to send Toronto any unwanted salaries.

But let’s say, hypothetically, that Bosh ‘ok’ed’ two or more destinations.  Since the Raptors hold all of the cards (by virtue of requiring a sign&trade), it might come down to which suitor was offering the best trade package.

If it came down to a bidding war, would the Heat part ways with Michael Beasley in a trade for Chris Bosh or would they look elsewhere (ie: Boozer, Amare) instead?

Matthew: That’s a fair point I kind-of ignored. He said earlier this year that he would get the maximum money wherever he went, which led many to believe he was a stone-cold sign-and-trade guy. I think I’m the only guy who wants to give Beasley another minute in a Heat uniform, so I think if it came down to that, Beasley’s gone. However, I don’t think Pat Riley is going to be hustled into a bad trade.

Rahat: From PER to TS%, Beasley’s numbers went down across the board this year.  What is his upside at this point?

Matthew: I guess his only true upside is hope and youth. Players at the four like him typically take three years to fully develop. It’s a rough comparison, but when you look at Kevin Garnett’s first three years, you can see how the first two years are a slog, followed by an impressive third season and much greater things afterwards. I don’t think he’ll ever develop into Kevin Garnett, nor what everyone in Miami imagines a No. 2 draft pick to be, but I think making a now-or-never decision on him now is foolish. He’s a super-young player whose first true lesson in defense came when he landed in South Florida. To cast him off now could potentially prove incredibly embarrassing.

JCF: I don’t know about you but I enjoyed the heck out of this season. True, it didn’t end the way we wanted it to but I loved watching our young players grow and, what’s more, there were so many compelling storylines to follow.

Of course, the biggest subplot coming into the season centered around Tracy McGrady: Would he be traded? For whom? Etc. It was all bittersweet in a way – the Rockets unquestionably received maximum value in dealing him to New York but it also closed the book on a player who helped author a handful of thrilling chapters, yet couldn’t quite bring Houston the happy ending we yearned for when he first arrived in Clutch City.

Rahat: Looking back to the time of that trade, there is not a present parallel to such a union. To fully grasp the extent of the excitement, one must place themselves in that moment, frozen in 2004. That Tracy McGrady was today’s Kevin Durant, a league savior of sorts, inimitable in talent, and peerless in potential.

And remember, Yao was still ripe with promise. No one knew the limits of what he could become.

For the pair, historic notoriety seemed almost inevitable.

JCF: Here’s the way I see it: Take a look around the league right now. So many teams have worked so hard to clear enough salary cap space to go after the mega free agents assumed to be on the market this summer. Now imagine the bedlam that would ensue if any club is able to convince Superstar A and Superstar B to come to its city. That would be pretty huge, right? And yet, for as titanic a pairing as that hypothetical duo might be, I’m still not quite sure the fervor generated would equal what Houstonians felt the day Tracy arrived. Given their productivity at the time and their respective ages – T-Mac was 25 and Yao just 24 – one could argue that the closest current comparison would be if a player like Carmelo Anthony were to join forces with Dwight Howard. Think about that for a minute and allow your mind to reflect upon the dreams such a combo would generate within the mind of a fan. Then and only then can you get a glimpse of what the people of Clutch City had in mind when McGrady uttered those fateful words, “I’m looking forward to something special happening here in Houston…”

Rahat: Even more depressing was that this was not just a match ‘in theory.’ Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming meshed beautifully and more importantly, they were fond of one another.

It amused me that the pundits’ charges of the duo’s purported on-court incompatibility only arose when one of the two was sidelined by injury. On the court, when both were healthy, Yao-Mac was a dream union. The pair simply needed help and that was the collective sentiment entering 2006.

JCF: It just goes to show how much timing, luck and circumstance dictate each and every one of our lives. It’s no different than any other relationship; just because you put two great people together it doesn’t mean they’re going to get married, have a pair of beautiful kids, buy a white picket-fenced house and live happily ever after. Life happens: familial stress; emotional baggage left behind from other failed relationships; health issues; dumb luck and dumber decisions. Any combination of those things can be powerful enough to infiltrate, infect and ultimately wreak havoc upon even the most seemingly sound of foundations.

On paper and in video games, the Rockets were the envy of the entire neighborhood. In real life, however, those tiny cracks and fissures forced our dream home to require some rather significant renovation.

Rahat: Many use McGrady’s failures as an indictment of the trade itself. But even in hindsight, you would pull the trigger again.

That Francis team had no room for growth. They were mired in mediocrity – the worst thing in sports.

It’s absurd to blast management for rolling the dice on a chance at greatness. It didn’t work out, but you can live with that – the best organizations dare to be great.

If a patient dies on the operating table, that doesn’t somehow render the decision for surgery ill-advised. It’s illogical to judge decisions on the basis of their end results.

JCF: Look, the Rockets rolled the dice on a top-5 player – top-10 at worst – who was at one point considered by some to be even better than Kobe Bryant. That’s a fact. Francis, even during his best years, was nowhere close to occupying that sort of rarefied air. In a league which practically requires you to have at least one top-10 player to be considered a relevant championship contender, the trade was a no-brainer, a slam dunk and a steal of a deal for Houston.

Speaking of steal of a deals, let’s fast forward to the present and reflect on the Rockets’ big trade deadline move this season.

Rahat: It was interesting to see how poorly McGrady played down the stretch with the Knicks. That really underscores the prudence in the decision to deal. Furthermore, with the revelation regarding the cap, New York probably didn’t need to give up Jordan Hill at all…

JCF: Well, to be perfectly honest, I always thought McGrady’s play and whatever he had left in the tank were irrelevant to that deal – both for the Rockets and for the Knicks. The time had come for a parting of ways here in Houston – and all the Knicks truly cared about was cap space anyway.

Rahat: For both managements, it was definitely irrelevant.

What I speak of is a prevailing sentiment within the Houston Rockets’ fanbase that perhaps the divorce was premature. I think those concerns have been completely erased.

JCF: That’s a great point. From a PR perspective, there’s no question that trade worked out well for Houston. But as for as the actual basketball component – which, let’s be honest, is the only thing that really matters in the big picture – I thought it was fascinating to watch Jordan Hill the last two months because it really hammered home how important he was as a key piece of that deal.

What did we talk about all year? The Rockets needed more size and athleticism up front and – voila! – Jordan Hill appears, all long limbs, gorilla dunks and bursting with potential.

Rahat: His production came as a huge surprise because most of the reports from New York seemed negative.

I would venture to say that the emergence of Jordan Hill was the most promising plotline of the Houston Rockets 2009-2010 campaign. At this point, for Jordan, I don’t see any barriers.

There is really no way that a 6’10 big, with plus-athleticism, and a track record of strong work ethic and desire for improvement, doesn’t evolve into a legitimate starting power forward at some point, especially considering the glimpses which we have already seen.

JCF: I agree. To me, the key is the work ethic. With those physical tools, anyone who is willing to bust their butt and learn from good coaching should be a lock to contribute in this league. It also makes one wonder why the Knicks gave up on him so quickly but there’s no need to turn this into a Big Apple bashing session. They only really care about one thing right now anyway.

So we agree on Jordan Hill. Let’s talk about the bigger prize – and biggest surprise – of that trade, Kevin Martin. What stood out to you while watching him the last two months?

Rahat: Martin was also a surprise. I hadn’t seen much of him prior to the trade and so, in retrospect, I feel the online scouting reports were a bit inaccurate, or at least, without much merit.

We were told he could shoot, and we were told he drew fouls. But the other subtleties of his game were entirely overlooked and therein lay his real value, in my opinion.

He is very fluid off the dribble, and more importantly, makes his moves quickly without holding the ball. Because these are traits also shared by Aaron Brooks, the Houston Rockets’ backcourt is extremely difficult to defend.

The relationship is fascinating because championship teams are typically built around the greatness of one individual. Daryl Morey probably recognizes that he cannot acquire a player worthy of this pedestal.

Rather than attempt to fit a square peg into a round hole with an unworthy individual, as is done by many teams, I think he wants to construct a team where the ‘superstar effect’ is manufactured through team synthesis. Other than Detroit in 2004, it’s never been done, but then again, much of Daryl Morey’s approach is unprecedented.

JCF: Hmmm, I don’t think I’d ever say that Daryl feels he’s unlikely to acquire a “pedestal” player. While he displays a tendency to publicly temper expectations, I also believe he has so much confidence in the hard work and overall creativity of his team that anything, even that which presents the longest of odds, is within the realm of possibility. To be sure, NBA history indicates that franchise players are far more frequently drafted, rather than acquired through other means. But I suspect Daryl and the rest of the Rockets’ Basketball Ops group view that as a mere inconvenience or challenge, not as a dead end. Until that day arrives, however, I do think you’re right: the construction of the quintessential “team” will continue.

To that end – and especially as it pertains to Brooks and Martin – I like the fact both players are so unselfish. They each have the ability to go off for 30 points in any given game but I don’t feel as if that’s something either one of them genuinely cares about. They’re not ball-stoppers; in fact, I was especially impressed with Kevin’s quick decision making the moment he receives the ball. He either makes his move, or moves the ball along right away.

So there’s no question that tandem makes the team very difficult to defend. But we also can’t ignore the other end of the floor – can they defend well enough to lift the team back into a top-10 unit, which was Morey’s mandate at his end of season press conference?

Rahat: Defensively, the team slipped noticeably this year, finishing 17th in defensive rating after being 4th last season. But I’m not too concerned. So much of defensive competence is predicated upon shot-blocking and overall familiarity. We had many new players this year so it is only natural that there would be a slip.

While we finished roughly the same in shot-blocking as we did last year, one can’t discount the intimidation affect of having a 7-6 giant planted in the paint.

In addition, for the most part, except for extremes on both ends of the spectrum, any quality NBA guard can get past his defender. It’s the help defense and rotations that make great defenses.

JCF: Very good point. Much like the term “shutdown corner” is a misnomer now in the NFL, I think the same is essentially true for the term “lockdown defender” in the NBA. These guys are just too quick and too skilled to be consistently contained one-on-one.

Team defense is really where it’s at, and at the core of nearly every great defensive team is a big man who can control the painted area. I’ve made this point several times in the last few months but it bears repeating: Look at the Orlando Magic – would you consider Jameer Nelson, Rashard lewis, Hedo Turkoglu or Vince Carter good defenders? I think most people would say no, while adding that each is merely average at best. Yet each of those guys has been part of the NBA’s best defensive team over the past two years.

Now Yao is not Dwight Howard, of course. But he is one of the game’s best rim protectors and there’s no question he will make a BIG difference as part of the team defensive concept. The question is, if Yao is only able to play limited minutes at the start of the season, how will that impact the Rockets’ D?

Rahat: There will need to be some other acquisition in the frontcourt, in my opinion, for this team to contend. I don’t see Yao playing more than 25 mg mpg right off the bat.

JCF: That’s certainly a legit possibility, though no one knows for sure what the exact timetable for bringing him along and easing him back in will be. So put yourself in Morey’s shoes then and take a look at the team’s current needs. What holes are you trying to fill via the draft (assuming the Rockets get the 14th overall pick) and free agency?

Rahat: Had you asked me this question last year, I would have said that the greatest need was playmaking from the perimeter. But the trade for Kevin Martin proved that the Rockets are, as I mentioned earlier, moving with a ‘team’ oriented approach, where no one player dominates the ball. In light of that, I feel that the team is completely set along the perimeter for the next half decade.

The greatest need is size up-front. They need a talent upgrade at the ‘4’ to realistically contend. Addressing that should be the primary focus. There is a premium on skilled ‘bigs’ in this league in that they aren’t quite so easy to acquire. The Rockets are in a position now where they have accumulated some assets to try and make a deal, either in the draft or other trade avenues.

JCF: No question, the addition of someone who could provide the team with size, length, athleticism, shot-blocking and rebounding skills would be a major coup for the team. Of course, I just listed the exact attributes and characteristics every club in the league lusts after in its big men which, to your point, is precisely why quality front-court players are also so difficult and expensive to acquire. On the bright side, however, is the fact that this is shaping up to be a draft rich in bigs bursting with potential and given Morey’s reputation for unearthing gems, you have to like the Rockets’ chances of finding a key contributor whether they decide to stay put in the draft, or move forward or back.

One other note: I’d also like to see the team pursue another playmaker on the wings. Quite frankly, I don’t think you can ever have enough of those guys – players who can create for both themselves and their teammates – and though you’re right to say Houston has a solid stable of players manning those positions right now, I’d still welcome the opportunity to bring another one into the fold. The NBA is increasingly a guard’s game – just look at the way point guards have impacted the postseason thus far – and, as far as I’m concerned, the more perimeter threats you possess who can dictate tempo and conjure big plays come crunch time, the better.

In terms of fit, I also think it’s worth mentioning how desirable Houston is as an NBA location. Just off the top of my head, here’s a quick list of the top things the Rockets have going for them right now:

1.) The roster is loaded with a ton of young talent either in its prime or still blooming. As Daryl has pointed out, this year’s Rockets were the best team ever without an All-Star. Now people can quibble with the specifics of that claim all they want but the core element is true either way: this team has one heck of a supporting cast in place AND it’s getting back Yao Ming.

2.) Speaking of whom, while Houston might not rank with NYC in terms of American exposure, the Yao effect means you’ve got 1 billion ready-made die-hards in China ready to worship the ground you tread.

3.) There is a Hall of Fame level coach at the helm.

4.) There is one of the top GMs in the NBA with a proven track record of making sound, creative decisions in order to give the team a chance to win both now and in the future.

In other words, if you want to win both now and in the future, Houston has to be at or near the top of the list of the most attractive NBA options.

OK, that’s it for my impromptu travel brochure extolling the benefits of playing in Houston. I want to touch on something else now. I know you’ve been a bit harsh on last summer’s free agent signing Trevor Ariza. But I’ve also noticed that your thoughts on Trevor’s game seem to have shifted somewhat since the trade, correct?

Rahat: Yes and no.

What was interesting was that when I would skim through discussions about my pieces on Ariza, where they had been cited online, the conclusion was seemingly, primarily from Laker fans, that “the Rockets/Rockets fans sure do regret the signing.”

That was frustrating because I have maintained all along, despite my criticism of his play, that it was a great signing – I knew that the organization had expectations different to those which were being attributed.

Now, through the emotional subjectivity that accompanies also being a fan of this team, it was tough to see Trevor masquerading as a playmaker, and thus, I certainly did do my fair share of venting my frustrations. But it was also understood that the nature of this season dictated player experimentation and that the role was delegated partly out of necessity and not cemented in the team’s long term vision.

I thought that we would really see Trevor at his true worth upon the return of Yao and McGrady because their presence would allow him to play his natural role. Of course, those two did not return, but we saw that the addition of Kevin Martin, through forcing down his usage, really enabled Ariza to play to his strengths, filling the lanes and slashing to the hoop.

With Trevor’s much improved play down the stretch, I feel the Houston Rockets have one of the most enviable perimeter trios in basketball.

JCF: I don’t think there’s any question Martin’s arrival had a profound positive impact on Ariza and I also believe there was definite value to be gained by allowing him to experience all he did this season. Trevor, his teammates and the coaching staff got a better feel for what he could do and what he couldn’t – and that’s not insignificant. The Rockets gave Ariza an opportunity to expand upon his usual role somewhat this season – in part, due to necessity – and I think the successes and failures Trevor experienced will only help him going forward.

I liken it to a young quarterback making the leap from college to the pros. The reads must be made quicker, despite the fact they’re also exponentially more complex. There are going to be moments when you just look flat-out bad because your brain and body haven’t caught up to the massive increase in degree of difficulty. But eventually things start to slow down as you and your offensive coordinator figure out your strengths, weaknesses and how to best tailor the offense around your particular skillset.

Now in this case, perhaps quarterback isn’t the proper comparison because Trevor won’t be asked to QB Houston’s offense. Perhaps it would be more accurate to describe him as a deep-threat wide receiver; not someone you go to every down but a guy capable of providing a big play at any time.

Either way, his baptism by fire this year was almost akin to asking that WR to play a little QB and I think that’s why we saw several awkward moments. But especially toward the tail end of the season, it appeared that Trevor and the coaching staff were gaining the benefits of those growing pains and we were seeing more and more of the player Houston coveted last summer

Rahat: So let’s say that no big trades or signings are made. Just bringing back Yao, is this team a contender?

JCF: To me, that was one of the more interesting revelations, if you want to call it that, from Daryl’s end-of-season press conference. He essentially said the team probably needs to add at least one more significant piece besides Yao in order to be a true title contender but that he believes they’ll still be a very good team if Yao is their only major summer addition.

I happen to agree with him, by the way. I mean, you’re adding Yao and a lottery pick in a deep draft to a team that won 42 games this season. I’d say that team can expect to experience a big improvement.

But, and I know I wandered here, here’s the truly interesting part about what Daryl said: He mentioned how he feels some teams make mistakes by trying to force a big splash in the summer, thereby limiting their flexibility to make moves in-season. I heard that and was immediately intrigued.

I don’t view that statement as Daryl hedging his bets or attempting to temper fans’ expectations. I see it as a classic example of this regime’s mentality: They are always going to be aggressive in trying to make significant moves to make this team a title contender. But they’re also not going to be forced into potentially making poor decisions simply based on someone else’s timetable. If the opportunity exists to make a big splash this summer, they’ll do it. If not, Daryl and Co. feel supremely confident they’ll be able to pull the trigger on something bigger and better at a later date

Rahat: It’s extremely frustrating that so many still don’t quite grasp the brilliance behind Daryl Morey’s machinations. He just waits…and then takes all the chips.

But when he doesn’t pounce immediately, the village idiots commence the chorus that he “can’t make the big move.”

I feel that with a healthy Yao, this team is on par with the rest of the West’s best, sans LA. They just need one more move.

JCF: No question, this is going to be a fascinating summer. As I said off the top, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed watching the way this team has undergone its rather extreme makeover. Of course, the often maddening aspect we haven’t touched on yet is that one of the necessary ingredients for championship success is luck. Bringing this conversation full circle, the Tracy and Yao days didn’t have luck on their side. Let’s hope these next-generation Rockets do.

Rahat: So the last time we spoke, you were confident that Chris Bosh would be remaining in Toronto.  We’re both aware of the recent rumors/reports, including Friday night’s episode on twitter.  Do you still feel that Chris will return to the Raptors?”

Sam: Call me crazy, but what I hear when Chris speaks is for someone to give him any reason to stay in Toronto. He has consistently said that he doesn’t like change, and that if he believes in the direction Colangelo is going, that he will re-sign. His latest episode on Twitter could have been nothing more than reaching out to the public to get a sense of what they think about him. He explicitly said in his exit interview that he will be keep BC in the loops, and do what’s best for him and the Raptors. These are the words of someone who wants to stay, who will do what’s best for the franchise, and will do what’s best for himself. Not the words of someone who has a foot out the door.

Rahat: You could completely be correct.  However, theoretically, let’s assume that he does decide to leave.  What team do you think would be his top preference?

Sam: If he was to leave, I see him wanting to go to either Houston or Chicago. Miami is out because he wouldn’t be the franchise player. New York is out because that team is further away from winning a championship than Toronto is. Oklahoma could be an interesting landing spot for him, but he would need to accept the role of a ‘Pau Gasol’: possibly the most important piece on the team, but not the main franchise player.

Rahat: I feel comfortable ruling out the Thunder as not only is Durant the clear-cut #1, but the team also does not fill the rumored requirement of playing in a large city.  ESPN’s Ric Bucher has seemed confident that Durant will not land with the Thunder.

It’s interesting that you rule out Miami because I think that the Heat pose as maybe the strongest suitor.  The Heat could offer Michael Beasley to the Raptors in addition to a large ‘traded player exception’, allowing the Raptors to send out Bosh without taking back unwanted salary.  Of course, the real question is how strong is Chris’ desire to be the man?  He certainly would not have that role with Dwayne Wade in tow.

I think it’s clear that if Bosh leaves, it will be via the sign&trade route.  If signing somewhere outright, he would be leaving $30million on the table, and I just can’t see that happening.  However, for this reason, while his destination is his decision, he really holds no leverage and the Raptors ultimately hold all of the cards.

For example – Bosh could pick Houston and tell Colangelo to work out a sign&trade with the implicit threat of signing outright in NY/CHI/MIA if the Raptors do not comply.  But in that scenario, because it’s so unlikely that Bosh would sacrifice $30million, Toronto could call his bluff and not cooperate if they do not find the Rockets’ trade package desireable.

So while Bosh has a strong voice in the process, Toronto is in the driver’s seat and it could come down to which team has the strongest offer.  In that vein, whose package do you think the Raptors would find most appealing?

Miami can offer Beasley; the Bulls could offer some parts.  If Dallas emerges as a suitor, despite the rumors of Chris’ lack of interest, they could offer Eric Dampier’s very unique partially-guaranteed expiring contract and a blue chip prospect in Rodrigue Beaubois.

In Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, Sergio Lull, Trevor Ariza and two lightly protected New York draft picks, the Houston Rockets are equipped with assets galore for a deal of this nature.  Unfortunately for them, because they do not have the cap space enjoyed by some of the other suitors, any deal would almost certainly need to include either Shane Battier or Jared Jeffries (unless involving Luis Scola in a double sign&trade.)  While Battier and Jeffries have expiring deals, Toronto will not be too enthusiastic about absorbing that deadweight salary.  (Though Battier could have value to contenders in a follow-up move.)

Surveying the field, by whose potential package do you think the Raptors would be most enticed?

Sam: I agree on ruling out Oklahoma City for both those reasons. I only bring them up as the best chance of Bosh joining a team, as a max player, that can compete right away for a championship.

I rule out Miami for the same reason OKC is out: there is a clear #1 waiting for help. As far as Beasley goes, I don’t think the Raptor fan base can deal with another talented, but lazy (read Bargnani) player on the team. The massive trade exception would be what Colangelo would covet, not Beasley (or at least I hope he doesn’t covet him).

I think we all agree that Bosh won’t leave all that money on the table, and that the Raptors do in fact have massive leverage if a sign-and-trade is in the cards. (I still say he stays in Toronto).

As far as sign-and-trade partners go, Houston has the best mix of assets to offer. The Knicks can offer Lee, parts and trade exceptions, but we don’t want to trade another all-star to a division rival. The Bulls have a few more pieces to throw in, but I really only want Noah (as Rose is off limits). Dallas is out since Bosh has continually said he doesn’t want to go there; I believe him.

Any combination of Battier, Ariza, Jordan Hill (I’m not high on him, but we will need to replace Bosh at power forward somehow) and picks could get the job done. Sorry but Budinger doesn’t get me excited…

Let me throw this at you though…and you may not like it…but if the Raptors are forced to do a sign-and-trade for Bosh, the team receiving him might have to take Turkoglu as well. Just putting it out there, but if the Raptors are moving Bosh, it’s safe to say we won’t be getting a franchise player in return, so the team is rebuilding (whether Colangelo says it or not). Turkoglu has been a big failure in Toronto, but it doesn’t mean he wouldn’t be valuable to a different team with a real system.

Rahat: I can tell you that there is a better chance of Daryl Morey signing me to the full MLE than there is of him taking back Turkoglu.  If taking Turkoglu is what it will require to get a deal done, Daryl Morey will go elsewhere.  This is a man who, above all else, places a premium upon flexibility.  He’s in no hurry – those assets will only appreciate.  If Daryl Morey doesn’t like a proposed deal, he will wait and strike later.  That has been established.

Your comments on Beasley are interesting because, to this point, I had considered him to be the single most attractive asset to be potentially in play.  Somewhat reassuring that Raptors management may possibly not share that sentiment.

Regarding the Rockets’ assets, keep in mind the implications surrounding those Knicks draft picks.  If the Raptors send Bosh to the Rockets, not only would they keep Bosh from New York, but they would significantly lower New York’s chances of signing Lebron, thereby increasing the value of the picks.

Sam: Flexibility is all nice and good, but at some point, you have to make a push to win a championship. That being said, I have a great deal of respect for Morey, and his ability to build a winning team. The one thing I can assure you is that there will be some looting involved in any sign-and-trade; the Raptors will be giving up a 26 perennial all-star who’s only going to get better. Probably wont get full value, but a big package will have to be put together.

I feel I need to elaborate on Beasley a bit. The guy is a very talented big who can shoot, put it on the floor, and rebound; but he has worn out his welcome on a D-League calibre team because of his work ethic; big freaking red-flag. Could a fresh start change things? Maybe. Will it? I doubt it. Ultimately, having a front court of Beasley and Bargnani makes me violently nauseous.

Rahat: Interesting take.  I guess all we can do for the time being is wait and see how it all unfolds.  Let’s switch gears for a moment:  you got a chance to watch Tracy McGrady up close from the moment he first entered the league.  Judging by his play in the second half, it looks like he could be done.  He’s even hinted at retirement.  At the very least, it’s clear that his days as a frontline player are over.  It’s truly a sad saga for someone still so young and once holding so much promise.

I have made my thoughts on Tracy McGrady quite clear.  What are your thoughts on the issue?

Sam: Wow, you keep twisting that knife in deep huh? I don’t want to sound like a jaded ex, but Tracy made his own bed. The moment he bolted from the Raptors, breaking up a great 1-2 duo with Vince Carter, he put being the man above winning. And we’ve all been witness to the stellar playoff record he has amassed as the franchise player for both the Magic and the Rockets.

The fact that the Rockets have played better without him speaks volumes about what kind of franchise player he is/was. Sure he had promise; sure he was as good as any shooting guard in the league; sure he was arguably the most talented scorer in the league in his prime, but the NBA is littered with better men who also fell short.

As far as his role in the league going forward, if he is healthy, gets in shape (P90X) and is ready to accept a similar role as Stackhouse (37 year old role player who is called on to make clutch plays from time to time), I don’t see why he wouldn’t have a couple more years in the league as a 15-20min a night player.

I wouldn’t call it a sad saga since his goals were to be the franchise player who made mega cash instead of winning, and from where I sit, he seems to have achieved those goals. Fitting his career might have come to an end sittin on the bench of a miserable Knicks team. Maybe I am a jaded ex…

Sam: Darryl Morey: best GM in the league?

Rahat: Obviously I’m biased, so my opinion there doesn’t hold much weight, but I think most people around the league have certainly taken notice.  What Morey needs now in his resume is real success.  The team obviously exceeded expectations last season and prior to the trade, this year, but for him to really cement his standing, he needs a real title run to show that his approach isn’t just conducive to overachievement – it can bring championships.

Sam: How do you see Martin and Jeffries fitting into this team?

Rahat: Jeffries just looks like a Houston Rocket – the activity and energy on the defensive end, always rotating, making deflections, drawing charges.  Unfortunately, he also fits the bill for Rockets teams of past years on the offensive side in that he has no abilities.  Martin is one of the most efficient scorers in our league and he kind of symbolizes the first major step towards what perhaps might be a vision to build an “offensive machine” – a drastic shift away from the defensive philosophy of years past.  But he attacks the basket and draws fouls and it looks like, with the Lowry trade last year, that might be one of the main skills that the Rockets are building upon.

Sam: Do you seriously think you guys have any chance of landing Bosh? What’s Plan B when you don’t land him?

Rahat: I think there could be a chance given his ties to the state of Texas and the solid lineup we have built to (theoretically) fit around him.  He fits this offense perfectly with his ability to operate from the high post.  I think there might be some appeal to a guy like Bosh to coming to a situation where he would not only be the undisputed first option, but also have sufficient help around him.  That’s pretty unique and I’m not sure many other teams can offer that appeal.  Plan B would likely be Stoudemire or simply holding on until the deadline to see who might become available via trade.  But I do think they will be very aggressive in free agency in gathering from what Daryl Morey has said.

Sam: Chris Bosh will be a Toronto Raptor come the start of next season. This is his team, and he has expressed the desire to be the man on his team. Very few situations will afford him that desire without being in a worse situation than the Raptors are currently in. I could see him being lured by the thought of playing with LeBron and/or Wade, but that is a basketball decision you can’t blame him for making. Short of that scenario actually being possible, he will stay in Toronto.

TV: What Daryl Morey has accomplished in the short few years since landing with the Houston Rockets is something of a revolution, wouldn’t you agree?

RH: It is. Using a stats-based approach, he completely remodeled his franchise in a strikingly short amount of time. In fairness, there are a few others adhering to the same unconventional model (ie: Pritchard, Presti.) However, there is an (oft-overlooked) key distinction that distinguishes Daryl Morey from his counterparts in this managerial renaissance. Pritchard and Presti were afforded the luxury of annual lottery picks. Morey built his program from the ground up, finding value without the benefit of preexisting assets with which to barter. He now has his team positioned for a return to contention next season.

TV: Do you agree with my assessment that the Spurs were the model of front office excellence for the last decade?

RH: I do. Winning titles with what was essentially 2 different lineups was a very impressive feat. By placing emphasis on scouting and the draft, they were able to reload on the fly and most impressively, control team spending. They didn’t have to overpay for talent because they knew they had a set philosophy in place which was conducive to a revolving door.

TV: You’ve described “the revolving door” in this way: “In the modern CBA era, perhaps the most pragmatic approach to personnel oversight entails, rather than the construction of one static team for the long haul, the planning and creation of separate teams in succession, wherein management continuously reloads, retaining flexibility and allowing the franchise to stay competitive in perpetuum.” Can you tell us more about the Morey philosophy?

RH: It hasn’t completely come to light, but we really learned a lot at the deadline. First, there seems to be a real aversion towards long-term contracts and this was probably intensified by some of the rumors about the new collective bargaining agreement. Most importantly, it would seem that “selling high” was the preordained course of action. The team sold off Carl Landry and was on the verge of swapping veterans Shane Battier and Luis Scola in the 11th hour for Suns forward Amare Stoudemire. Daryl Morey will not be blinded by the false hope of immediate returns on the strength of “chemistry.” Assembling a core of premium talent is the primary consideration.

TV: In what ways, if any, do the Spurs exemplify aspects of the Morey model?

RH: Well, the Spurs are that ideal manifestation of the conventional model – it’s the complete opposite of the Morey model. You can’t take anything away from the Spurs’ front office achievements because they really did a fine job at assembling those title teams, but having a trans-generational talent like Duncan really is a complete game-changer. A guy like Duncan lets you fill roles and give weight to luxuries like ‘chemistry’ because he himself is the framework. The Rockets have to waste years establishing a foundation before they can even begin to give thought to the finer concerns.

TV: In the second installment of your series, the concept of replacing the aggregate vs. replacing the individual struck me as a crucial distinction…I guess I should ask you to explain to our readers what were talking about.

RH: It’s basically the idea that you don’t necessarily have to replace a player’s exact contributions to have the same overall team output. For a simple example, let’s say you lose a great rebounding power forward. Rather than trying to replace that production with an inferior power forward of the same mold, you might find that it would be easier to recreate the previous year’s total team output by adding a great 3 point shooter whose shooting efficiency makes up for the rebounds lost. Focus on the whole rather than the individual parts.

TV: Older evaluators of talent were difficult to reproduce–Jerry West’s intuitive eye was unique to him. What he knew he knew. But it strikes me that the Spurs and Rockets (Morey) represent highly reproducible models. Kevin Pritchard commented somewhere that what he learned in San Antonio was the value of following a set of processes. And any team, in theory, is capable of vetting their personnel the way the Spurs do. The only thing teams can’t reproduce is the luck (winning the lottery, selecting Ginobili in a moment of coin toss decision making), but the rest is reproducible. Is the same true for Morey. Math is math is math is Morey. Is that right?

RH: Not at all. These stats the Rockets are using in their analysis aren’t exactly shared public property; they’re proprietary metrics. Anyone can aggregate a database of numbers. It’s the ability to discern and place emphasis upon the correct elements which keys the success of Morey’s approach.

TV: Good point, Rahat.  It’s the ability to interpret the metrics and combine that interpretation with what we’re seeing with our eyes that counts. I suppose that’s a kind of intuition too.

To the Rockets:

Kevin Martin – $44 million left, expires in 2013
Jordan Hill -  $5.1 million left, expires in 2012 (team option for 2014)
Jared Jeffries – $13.3 million left, expires in 2011
Option to Swap 1st round with NYK in 2011 (top 1 protection)
NYK 2012 1st round pick (top 5 protection)

To the Kings:

Carl Landry – $3 million left, expires in 2010 (team options for $3 million for 2011 season)
Joey Dorsey – $1.7 million left, expires in 2011 (team option for $1 million for 2012 season), partially guaranteed in 2011 season
Larry Hughes -$13.7 million left, expires in 2010

To the Knicks:

Tracy McGrady – $22.8 million left, expires in 2010
Sergio Rodriguez -$1.6M, expires in 2010 (team option for $2.3M in 2011)

Zach: Kevin Martin was in a lose-lose situation once we saw a glimpse into just what Tyreke Evans could be (November 7th road win in Utah). Martin was going to have to comeback perfectly and he certainly didn’t do so. Upon his return, he struggled with his own scoring at a time in which the Kings were starting to collapse. Martin’s greatest strength has always been getting to the line for easy points and this year he’s only been getting there seven times per game (7.2 fta/36). While seven free throw attempts seems like a lot for most players, it’s the lowest total he’s averaged in four years. That’s what Kevin Martin does; he scores easy points. He finds open spots on the floor, runs off of high screens perfectly and tosses up that funny looking jump shot. You expect it to clank off the side of the backboard because of the shooting motion. Instead, it usually rips through the net as part of the quietest most efficient 25 points per game you’ll see on a nightly basis. He struggled to do that this year on Tyreke Evans’ team. It turned into a treasonous act in the minds of some Kings fans who probably never thought he’d actually be traded.

Rahat: I think Martin’s skillset will fit beautifully into this Rockets team’s motion offense.  While he isn’t the creating wing I felt this team needs, he will be a huge boost to this offense.

In Carl Landry, the Kings are receiving one of the most effective inside scorers in the league (career TS% of .630) and the probable 6th-man of the year. Landry is a tireless worker.  He relentlessly attacks the offensive glass.  However, he is a poor defensive rebounder and his totals have been trending downwards.

The evolution of Carl’s offensive repertoire has been startling.  He came into the league as merely a garbageman, using his extreme athleticism to hang around the basket for easy openings off of passes from Tracy McGrady.  But his athleticism has declined since that rookie season as he re-aggravated a serious injury from college.  While he is still athletic, he no longer appears freakish like he once did.  In his second year, Landry showed off an ability to face up and take his man off the dribble and developed a deadly mid-range jumper.  Due to his size, we thought this would be the extent of his capabilities.  The real surprise has come this year as Carl is now a very effective post scorer, showing off an arsenal of fadeaway jumpers and hooks off of either block.  He has struggled against fronting and double teams in recent weeks but it is unclear whether this is merely due to unfamiliarity with these new approaches.

Finally, Carl has never been a good defender.  Though he is described as ‘physical’, he does not hold his ground well in the post and is easily mauled over by larger power forwards.  He is also a poor shot-blocker.

Mike: Rahat, earlier in the season you said McGrady “has looked bad” and that “he’s not helping” the Rockets. Do you think he’ll help the Knicks?

Rahat: Overall, he looked bad. However, this was quite some time ago.  It’s anyone’s guess right now if the struggles were due to permanent physical regression or rust/the natural readjustment after surgery.  He was still surprisingly effective as an individual defender, never really getting beat laterally.  (This was pretty odd as he seemed to have little to no explosion offensively.)  The problem for us was that this Rockets team wins through pace and hustle.  McGrady was too slow to keep up on the break and made little effort to help defensively – that wasn’t going to cut it here.  It’s tough to say whether he will help the Knicks because there is the possibility that he was able to work off more of the rust during his latest hiatus.  I certainly wouldn’t rule it out.  His days as a frontline star are over, but I think he can still be a factor, situationally.

Mike: If you were D’Antoni, how would you use him in the offense?

Rahat: I’m not completely familiar with the Knicks’ offense so I can only assess McGrady’s capabilities.  Primarily what he brings, contrary to popular belief, is passing.  For McGrady, the passing will always be there – he’s the best passing wing this league has ever seen, rivaled only by James.  It was remarkable to see that even in his regressed state, he could still effectively create plays for his teammates.  Just absolutely remarkable.  He can hold the ball at the key, in stationary position, and blindly hit cutters without needing to actually beat his man off the dribble.  He also never makes mistakes.  It’s never been mentioned, but as far as court IQ, he’s in the league’s top 99th percentile.

As for the rest of his game:

He can still create space for his jumper because he is so incredibly skilled/coordinated: he uses a jab step-left to free himself for his pet shot at the elbow.  Unfortunately, he is not a good shooter (TS% of .487% in his last healthy season; bottom 5th in league) so this is not an aspect of his game one’s offense would want to feature.

Interestingly, while most of his shots come in motion off his own dribble, he might actually be a far better set shooter.  He looked very good on the few set shots he took last year, but he rarely attempts them.  We will also need to see how much lift he has on his shot upon return, because for McGrady, that is crucial.  He has looked flat in recent years and that has contributed to his drastic decline.

Moving on, McGrady struggles scoring off the catch/curl/cut.  In fact, he is the antithesis of a “willing cutter.”  To be effective, he has to have the ball in his hands.

Mike: As I said earlier, one way I would advocate the Knicks acquiring McGrady was if he were able to push Duhon to the bench. Duhon has just killed New York this year, especially with regards to scoring in the paint – going as far as passing up open layups. Honestly I think Duhon is probably the worst NBA player I’ve ever seen with regards to scoring inside.

With that in mind, how has McGrady been with respect to:
1. Scoring inside?
2. Playing point guard?

Rahat:
1. Scoring inside – even when healthy, scoring inside has been Tracy McGrady’s achilles heel since I have been following him.  Hard to believe because we all remember the dunks from his younger days.  As he has aged, most likely out of fear, he just simply avoids driving to the basket at all costs.  This includes the 4th quarter of Game 7′s with opponents in the penalty.  If you look at my game analysis during his return, he did valiantly try to drive to the hole on certain occasions, much more aggressively than in years past, most likely in hopes of assuaging the concerns of watching eyes.  The problem was that he simply did not have even a modicum of explosion.  As I said earlier, that could possibly change as the leg builds strength, but his fear of contact will not.  Even moreso than help defense, inside scoring is the last thing one can hope to expect from Tracy McGrady.

2. Playing point guard – At this point in Tracy’s career, based on what I saw in those games, I think he can only be effective in this league as a point guard.  He doesn’t shoot well enough to justify a role at the ’2.’  If he’s on the court, to offset some of the negatives, you want to be utilizing his passing for a net gain.  So I could see him as sort of an extreme-new-age version of Ron Harper (of Chicago Bulls three-peat fame) going forward.

There’s two problems: 1) I’m still not sure it would work unless it was Fratello’s Cavs.  Tracy won’t push the pace.  For this reason, you could use him off the bench, but I don’t see it happening as a starter.  2) He doesn’t have a prayer against 1′s defensively.  You would need to mask that by pairing him with a 2 capable of taking those duties.  In his return, I never saw him get beat laterally, but this was in defending bulky small forwards.  It won’t work against NBA point guards.

Mike: The Knicks defensive schemes have a lot of switching, so individual match-ups don’t matter as much. However New York just traded three guys that could have played alongside McGrady well. Jared Jeffries, Nate Robinson, and Larry Hughes all could have guarded the point guard position, allowing T-Mac to run the offense while  defending a wing. Additionally Jeffries/Hughes would have given New York a lengthy lineup, while Nate Robinson could have been inserted alongside T-Mac as a shooting guard and be freed of trying to play point.

Duhon has been the Achilles Heel on offense, but the problem is no one else was able to step up. D’Antoni tried Hughes and Robinson, but the coach has little patience with shooting guards masquerading as points. With McGrady as possibility at point guard, and adding Sergio Rodriguez, perhaps D’Antoni can end Duhon’s stranglehold on the starting spot.

Zach: Sergio Rodriguez will be perfect for a team like New York that has nothing of substance at the point guard position. He pushes the tempo, pulls passes out of orifices and finds a way to make a positive impact. He’s the Kings leader in +/- this year and it’s legit. When he’s on the court, he makes things happen. Is he going to be able to defend anybody? Not a chance. Not to mention, his jumper is suspect. But he is a facilitator that will be fun to watch for Knicks fans.

Rahat: Tell me about Jordan Hill.  Is this someone upon whom I can pin future hopes?  In my diligent investigations prior to the consummation of this deal, what I gathered led me to the conclusion that he most likely sucks.  Is this a fair assessment?

Mike: I have to say I was very down on the drafting of Hill. A few statistical evaluations had him as being overrated by the scouts, and the Knicks sorely needed a point guard (see my rant on Duhon above). Hill is raw, which is a bit of a red flag for a guy that didn’t come out as a underclassmen. Watching him I’ve been slightly impressed compared to my low expectations, so I think the word “sucks” is a bit of a stretch. He certainly has the athleticism to be a good NBA player. Hill can rebound & block shots, and he does have an outside jumper.

The big problem is his inside scoring – he seems to shy away from the hoop and use fade aways instead of going strong. Even when he has a point blank shot, he’ll occasionally miss. It’s like Hill has no clue how to score in the paint. Additionally, he’s a little lost on the defensive end, but you expect that from any first year player. Off the top of my head, I’d say he’s a less heady and less polished Kurt Thomas. From the three minutes I spent interviewing him he’s a happy-go-lucky nice guy, which means he doesn’t have Kurt’s mean streak either.

Rahat: Henry Abbott wrote a piece earlier in the year on Jared Jeffries, describing his defensive impact on the court.  Is he a zero offensively?  Just how bad is he?  Perhaps even more importantly, does he know his limitations?  Offensively, there’s Shane Battier-bad and Trevor Ariza-bad.  The latter can be disastrous and painful to watch.

Mike: Jeffries has exactly one skill on the offensive side – rebounding. Earlier I said Chris Duhon is the worst NBA scorer in the paint I ever witnessed, well Jeffries is a close second. It’s baffling at 6-11 how many shots from point blank he’ll miss. Throw in the turnovers and he’s not a zero but rather a complete negative on that side of the court. Jeffries does seem to know this and often will pass up open opportunities, but I think the coaching staff is encouraging him to take open shots & drives. He’s been doing more of that this year, but without much success.

He does bring a lot on the defensive side, but don’t expect a lock down defender ala Ron Artest or a fly swatter like Josh Smith. Just a smart guy that will take a bunch of charges, can cover just about anybody, and will do more good than bad.

As for Larry Hughes, he can still defend on the wing a little, but his offense just isn’t there anymore. He had a hot streak earlier this year, and D’Antoni used him often. But once his luck vanished, so did his playing time. Perhaps he’ll get some burn in Sacramento and will finally be able to shave his beard. But I’m guessing for the Kings, this move isn’t about Larry Hughes.

Zach: I think the move has two huge components. The Kings now have great flexibility in the years before Tyreke Evans gets to start thinking extension. I know that’s a bit extreme considering we’re still in his rookie campaign but this franchise will be built around him and Geoff Petrie just got as close to a blank slate as he’s ever going to get. So yes, in a way this was largely a move for cap space. Secondly, the Kings just acquired their best low post scorer since Chris Webber (and he kept hanging around the elbow). Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes are full of potential and hope but Carl Landry is a guy that will get results. Not only does he produce in the post but he does it at a cheap price. At some point in the next year, Sacramento will get to decide if he is worth keeping, how much it will cost and where he fits into the core. And they get a nice window to judge everything properly. If they don’t think it will work out long-term there will be dozens and dozens of NBA teams wanting to acquire his Bird Rights and scoring ability. The Kings just became the biggest transaction player for the next year. That’s the biggest impact of all of this.

Mike: You could argue that the Rockets got the best player in this deal. So how do you feel about it?

Rahat: I’m simply speechless right now.  I haven’t yet taken this all in.  It was a good deal when it was just, essentially, Landry for Martin.  But the Knicks’ part of our haul?  Daryl Morey might have just rebuilt this entire franchise in one swoop this afternoon.  I don’t think I can appropriately articulate the significance of this move in this space provided.

Mike: Funny thing is that I’m not crazy about this trade from the Knicks perspective. I feel as if New York is paying too much for getting out of Jeffries’ contract, perhaps if it were the useless and more expensive Eddy Curry I would be OK with it. Sending any one of Jordan Hill, a first round pick, or an option to swap firsts seems reasonable to unload his contract. But all three seem to be overkill. On top of it, according to NBA salary cap expert Larry Coon, even with this trade New York can’t sign two max guys and keep David Lee. Perhaps being able to get a second near max guy (for ~ $14.8M) is the thing that puts them over the top for signing LeBron, but it’s an awful big risk.

I know I’m in the minority with my opinion, and perhaps I’m more optimistic on the Knicks chances of grabbing a top free agent without this move. I’m not against moving Jeffries, obviously, I’m just against the cost. Here’s one final thing for Knick fans to consider: what does the team do with McGrady if he’s a good fit for D’Antoni’s offense? Do the Knicks consider re-signing him in the summer considering McGrady’s injury history? How much, or rather how little, will McGrady take to stay? Lots of things to keep New Yorkers buzzing while the other half of the league is in the playoffs.