The first thing that you notice is the guy’s energy. D-Mo rarely stays still. Despite his size, he’s dynamic, quick on his feet and he loves to run the floor (he had a sweet runaway dunk during the game I saw). On the offensive end he’s got some really smooth post moves, and oftentimes manages to shake off the defender and go for an easy layup – I can really picture him becoming a great post player once coach McHale starts to work with him on these skills. (I know that’s overreacting, but I swear some of his moves in the paint reminded me of the Dream). In addition to attacking the basket, he can shoot it from distance and seems quite confident from the foul line (I didn’t see him take many free throws, but he did make all of them).

But despite being the primary option (he easily led the team in scoring that night), he also made some nice dishes to open teammates and you always have to appreciate a big man with decent court vision, so that’s definitely a plus.

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ALL STAR EDITION - I figure since we’re half way through I’ll do a little readjustment of the expected outcomes. After all, we’ve got a lot more information since the start of the season. I’ve made the following adjustments:

LA Lakers: No Chance -> Underdogs
Minnesota: Favourites -> Underdogs (not that it makes much difference now that we’ve played them 4 times)
Utah: Even -> Favourites
Denver: Underdogs -> Even
Portland: Underdogs -> Even

I’ve also added a last 5 games section so you can see how we were doing recently.

It is absurd that this is even an issue. Would it have been great to have Lin as our third PG? Sure, better him than Flynn but that was not feasible. And even so, if the Rockets did have Lin as their 3rd PG he would have not performed the same way. Hell, he probably would have not even been given the chance to do so. Is that on Morey to visualize every conceivable scenario where a player can perform to their highest potential? Maybe but it is a tall order. And even if Morey had know that Lin would perform this way, what was he suppose to do? Rework the entire team and system to put him in that scenario? If Lin can continue to perform over an extended stretch of time and with a complete team then we could analyze the situation better.

It is like if T-Will is let go and starts tearing it up on the Wizards. Are we suppose to blame Morey for that? No. I wouldn’t. We know T-Will has skills but he has an attitude to go with it. Just because a player can light up on a depleted and crappy team means he can do the same anywhere else. Things like this need time to evaluate it properly taking into consideration how and why the players is performing that way. It could be a change of scenery, could be a by-product of a specific offensive system or it could be the players surrounding them. It could be more things, a combination a things, or none of them.

Hakeem Olajuwon is why I’m a Rockets fan today. He did everything; hung around with the team through early playoff exits and losing seasons due to a weak supporting cast, led us to the promised land (twice) and set way too many statistical records to mention here. After everything Houston and Hakeem had been through, watching him wither away in a Toronto Raptors jersey was pure torture. I was younger at the time and I did not understand the move at all, as I’ve grown older and learned more about draft picks and contracts, my position on that trade remains unchanged. Do you know what we got for Hakeem? A draft pick that led to Bostjan Nachbar, a total bust who’s wasting away in some Russian D-league right now. Hakeem had requested the trade due to the front office being cheap. Next time the greatest player who has ever worn a Rockets jersey asks for a max offer, you give it to him. At this point, its not about winning or rebuilding or drafting or next season. This is one of the few times that sports transcends winning and statistics. This is about a city’s admiration for a man. Out of all the Rockets games I’ve yelled, cheered and bled through; loss to the Jazz in the playoffs, the early exits with Tmac, including that Game 7 blowout in Dallas, the end of the 22 game losing streak (guess who we lost too?), the news that Yao was done while we were battling the Lakers in round 2 and the lakers opening night come back which ruined the whole season last year, the worst moment of being a Rockets fan was when I turned on the TV and saw this:

http://sportsillustr…content.18.html

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But, like Favian pointed out, he’s a “late-bloomer.” How many of the Association’s current “superstars” emerged on to the scene in their mid-20′s? Not many. Fans are enamored with young, budding talent. Exactly why the media’s casting a bright light on John Wall, just 21-years-old, and he’s scooping up endorsement deals along the way. If the Rockets were playing for all the marbles tonight, I’d roll with Lowry. But, with time, Wall’s going to be the superior player and to attribute his “hype” to Reebok commercials and consumerism is borderline absurd. Statistically, he’s already nipping at the heels of Lowry, who’s over 5 years his elder. Lowry’s the better shooter, hands down, but he developed that stroke with time. Wall’s already one of the most dynamic open-floor players in the game, and can finish at the rim with the best of ‘em (leads all PGs in And-1s, as well). His 3-pt stroke’s only going to improve, and once it catches up to his attacking abilities, he’ll be an absolute force to be reckoned with. Earlier, I gave credit to K-Low for being the best rebounding PG in the NBA, well Wall checks in at #2 with 5.5 boards/game. He doesn’t play with the grit and determination of a K-Low, but he’s already a comparable talent to Lowry as the youngest starting PG in the NBA.

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I’m going to split the other teams into the league into 5 categories depending on how likely we are to beat them:

Easy wins (we should win 100% of these):

Sacramento x3 (1-0)
Toronto x2
Washington x2
Charlotte x2 (1-0)
Detroit x1
New Jersey x1

Expected score: 11-0
Current score: 2-0

Favoured (I’d like to win 75% of these):

Phoenix x4
Minnesota x4
Golden State x3
New Orleans x3
Milwaukee x1
Cleveland x1

Expected score: 12-4
Current Score: 0-0

Even (50%):

Memphis x4 (0-1)
Utah x3
Indiana
Boston
New York
Atlanta (1-0)

Expected score: 6-5
Current score: 1-1

Underdogs (25%):

Denver x4
San Antonio x4 (1-1)
Portland x3 (1-0)
Philadelphia

Expected score: 3-9
Current score: 2-1

Games we’d be lucky to get anything out of:

OKC x4 (0-2)
Dallas x3
LA Lakers x3 (0-1)
LA Clippers x3 (0-1)
Chicago
Miami
Orlando (0-1)

Expected score: 0-16
Current score: 0-5

Projected record: 32-34
Current record: 4-7

If previous years are anything to go by, we’ll need around 35 wins to make the 8th seed. That means we’ll need to pick up an extra three games from somewhere. Any ideas where those might come from? We’re already doing reasonably well in the ‘underdogs’ section…

I’ll try to keep this updated as the season goes on so we can keep track of how we’re doing against expectations. Hopefully that will start with a win today!

Follow the breakdown.

BTW,CD,
The Rockets could do the same,only w/a much better supporting cast intact.
It basically involves trading Martin for no incoming 2012 salary or using the amnesty on him.
Not re-sign Thabeet,let Flynn and Dragic go. Stretch buy-out Dalembert’s $1.5mil 2012 option so it only counts $500,000 against Salary Cap.

Left w/ Scola,Lowry,Hill,Williams,Patterson,Morris,Motie(coming over),Bud,Parsons. About $29mil in salary,leaving just enough for 2 LeBron,Bosh type $14.5mil deals.
Llull could come over,his 2 Rd salary not counting towards cap til he signs. MLE available for Lee.
I’d assume if such was agreed upon by Dwight and Deron Williams,Lowry would get traded for some cap relief and a young player/draft pick,freeing up more room to sign Dwight,Williams.
If such a fantasy came true:
Dwight,Motie,Hill
Scola,Patterson,
Bud,T-Will,Parsons,Morris
Lee
Williams,(Lowry?),Llull
Knicks pick and any others

…

The scenario where the Rockets could chase Dwight and Williams is very remote. BUT,it’s possible and it has to be in Rocket’s thinking.
So I doubt the team makes any moves until the Dwight situation gets resolved. If Dwight is traded-or reasonably certain to be-then I think the Rockets will make some trades,resolving the Martin/Lee situation among others. Until then,or forced by a particular situation,they’re standing pat.(Which means they’ll probably pull off a multi player,multi-team blockbuster trade tomorrow .)

Obviously the pipe-dream of all pipe-dreams, but interesting nonetheless.

In those 42 games, the Rockets played 30 away from the confines of the Toyota Center, going 12-18 (.400). So when the team’s 18-23 (.439) road record from the previous season is factored into the equation, the Rockets seem to be at par. However, the true litmus test is the team’s record on the second night of back-to-backs. The Rockets only went 7-14 (.333), a legitimate concern that is overlooked.

Houston relies heavily on scoring, posting 106.7 points per game, the second highest clip given 0 days rest only behind the Knicks. Take into the consideration their seventh-fastest pace and this is a team that tries to outscore their opponents to win. Much easier said than done when on the road, as the defense has to play a bigger role. I’m looking at you, Luis Scola.

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16. Houston Rockets: The Yao Dynasty has come to an end and dissipating for the most part is the Chinese community who wholeheartedly rode the Rockets bandwagon for the past decade. For those who are sticking it out with the Rockets this year, be warned that this will be the first year of true growing pains. This motley of talent and upside is really young. A quick look at their roster shows that only their two stars, Kevin Martin and Luis Scola, are above 25. However, this youth movement has a predictable ceiling and it doesn’t look like a future superstar is coming out of the fold. You have been warned. It’s been said over and over again: 2009 feels so long ago.

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Rahat do you really think Stoudemire was the correct choice over yao? Even today I would still have taken yao 9 times out of ten, even with the power of hindsight.

Amare has a current career average of 22/9, 4 pts better than yao – yet he is half the defensive presence of yao. His team’s success has always been accompanined by 1st tier talent (Nash, J.johnson, Marion etc) and has had injury problems of his own. This year we saw amare attempt to lead his team by his own and only barely squeak into the playoffs in a piss weak Eastern confrence. There is denying that he is NOT a superstar. However when healthy, yao definitely WAS a superstar. 22 and 10 while anchoring a top 5 defence? Prime yao was a top 10 player, and a center at that.

Scoring PF with no defence are a dime-a-dozen these days, hell the rockets aqcuired one for v.span. Give me 7 years of a transcendnet superstar center anyday.

With the benefit of hindsight, was Yao the right choice?  Yao finished with a career PER of 23.00; Amare is at 22.6, so the two are comparable in overall production.

Yao anchored some of the best defenses in basketball while Amare probably couldn’t guard his shadow.  With that said, against certain matchups, Yao became an absolute liability on the defensive end.  That was the case when Dallas went small in ’05 and against Boozer in ’07.  (Chuck Hayes shut down whichever of Boozer/Okur he faced in that series.)

You couldn’t take Amare out of a ballgame – he’d always be a presence; put a 6’8 guy on Yao and the latter might as well have been on the pine.  How much of that was due to the vastly superior talent Amare enjoyed by his side?

What about the postseason and clutch play?  Yao averaged 19 and 9.  Was he ever truly dominant.  He struggled against Shaq in his first trip – that’s completely forgivable.  But he was neutralized in the critical home games against Dallas when the Mavs went small and failed to punish the Jazz in ’07 for not doubling – he got his averages but we needed him to roast Mehmet Okur in single coverage.

Lastly of course, there’s the small issue of health.  Amare is still going while Yao Ming has called it a career.

In hindsight, would you have chosen Yao or Amare?

Past history has shown us that (at least under the current CBA) trades get you championships, not rebuilding projects. So my preferred strategy would be to continue to maximize our wins in the short term while waiting for the right trade to come along. Morey is a good enough GM to be be able to keep us in that state (many lesser GMs would fail, I suspect), and then when the big trade comes, it will be all the sweeter knowing that the organization has never stopped trying to put a winning team together.

The above comments were in response to my suggestion that the team ‘needed’ to trade Scola.  I do think I agree in theory with the reader’s thesis.  History is replete with examples of child ‘super-teams’ that never put it together: come to think of it, I can’t think of a single time it’s ever worked.  The Thunder are trying to break that curse.

Where I disagree though is that while stocking up on young talent by trading off veterans usually doesn’t work, you almost always have to get your ‘superstar’ through the draft.  And to get your superstar through the draft, you have to get really bad first.  So essentially, I’m starting to think that the ideal model for team-building is to trade off all of your veterans, get really bad, hit big in the lottery, and then stock up again on vets.

My other point is strictly on Scola: while some will disagree, from what we saw from Patterson to close the season, I’m not so sure trading the former will make this team any worse; the Rockets were markedly better on the defensive end with the rookie in the starting lineup.

I don’t think the rationale behind trading Scola is to ‘let the young guys develop’ as conventional wisdom would suggest.  The reason to trade Scola is to obtain full value for the 31-year-old before he starts to slip.

[You can follow the quoted discussion here...]