As I had predicted, Clippers-Grizzlies was an absolute treat and to my delight, we will live to see four more games at the least of Chris Paul.  The rest of the playoffs, Lakers-Nuggets included, in my opinion, have been a complete bore.  If the first round was any indication, the semis should also be a snoozefest.  The Heat should dispose of the Pacers in 4 or 5 as should the Thunder of the Lakers.  As much as it pains me to accept the reality, the Clippers don’t stand a prayer against the Spurs and will likely get swept.  Celtics-Sixers has a chance to last 6, but to be honest, I really don’t care.  Despite the parity, I don’t plan on watching a single game of that series – maybe I’m just getting old.

A word on Clippers-Grizzlies: Especially today, that was just beautiful, beautiful basketball.  I live to watch physical play where only the strong survive.  Blake Griffin, despite his offensive struggles, for his physicality in matching Zach Randolph, became a man today.  For once, he didn’t flop; he hit back, hard, and he took blows.  And Kenyon Martin and Reggie Evans – if the Rockets ever get good again, these are the type of guys that I want playing for them.  Brute enforcers that bring the pain and set the tone for the officiating.

A word on Blake Griffin: as a Chris Paul fan, and a fan of the NBA, I really hope Blake gets to work this offseason.  He has to become a true offensive force and stop relying on his athleticism.  He has to learn how to shoot the midrange jumper or Chris Paul’s greatness is completely wasted.  He has the early vestiges of a post-game–solid initial positioning, balance, and coordination–but the moves just aren’t there.  Too often, he finds himself spinning in awkward positions going away from the basket, or simply trying to jump over his man en route to the hoop.  Blake needs to slow down and learn the simple basics.  Drop-step.  Soft, feathery jump hook.  Turnaround.  Just simple, single-step moves and counters.

A word on Chris Paul: Those mid-range pullups are as smooth as butter.  And of course, other than Steve Nash, I haven’t seen anyone, I think ever, with as tight of a handle on the ball.  After watching this series, I’m beginning to wonder, as are others undoubtedly, will Paul stay after next year?  This Clippers team is basically Hornets 2.0.  In fact, if I had a game or series tomorrow, I’d take Chandler/West ‘08 9 times out of 10 over Jordan/Blake.  Jordan gives you nothing, really, and Blake at this point isn’t as potent as West was in his prime.  The smart basketball move would be to offer the two big men up for Dwight Howard but of course, the smart basketball move is never made.

A scary thought: Down to the last team, Sixers and Jazz included, I don’t think these Rockets are better than a single participant I’ve seen in this year’s playoffs.  Of the West semifinalists, there isn’t a single one against whom the Rockets would stand a prayer in a series.  A chilling realization about how far this team still has to go.

Follow the discussion and comment here.

Huq: Can you confirm the rumblings that Portland will make Goran Dragic their top priority this summer?  Is that what you’ve also heard?

Golliver: Blazers Acting GM Chad Buchanan has repeatedly stated that the starting point guard position is the team’s No.1 priority. All indications are that after a truly awful season incumbent Raymond Felton won’t be anything but an absolute last, last, last resort to fill that role, if that. Heading into a rebuilding cycle, Dragic would fit Portland’s plans better than a number of the free agents that are coming available this summer because of his age and his proven skill level. You can find the logic behind Portland’s interest by simple process of elimination. He’s not too old (Nash, he’s not a retread (Miller), he’s not a 2 trying to play 1 (Bayless), he’s not a midget (Augustin), he’s not totally out of their league (Williams), he’s not a Felton clone (Nelson). Dragic has stated he wants his own team, Portland has been desperately searching for someone capable of handling that role on a long-term basis for years, he’s unrestricted and Portland has substantial cap space.

The only caveat is that this all is acting under the current operating protocol which could change at any moment. A new GM would potentially bring a new philosophy.

Huq: How much are the Blazers expected to have under the cap?

Golliver: At this point they are only expected to have two contracts that aren’t minimum or rookie deals on the books for next year: LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews (totaling $20.5 million). They’ll need to re-sign or match on Nicolas Batum and make a decision on J.J. Hickson. Various estimates have put them in the $15-$20 million range which we all know can change quickly. Buchanan has said the team’s goal is to add veteran pieces at the point guard and center positions using that space (via trade or outright signings) before going above the cap line to sign Batum. Whether they are able to accomplish that or not (or whether they are bluffing to appease fans and will actually proceed with a draft-oriented youth movement), who knows. But that’s the stated plan.

Huq: Do you think management would be open to trading for Kyle Lowry instead?  What would they be willing to offer?

Golliver: There’s only one reason I can see Portland not having interest in Lowry: his no contest plea to the incident in Las Vegas. This organization holds an incredibly high character standard for its players and views them as community ambassadors. I’m not sure that’s a serious enough red flag to prevent interest but that’s the lens they have operated through for years now.

As a player, though, Lowry would be very intriguing of course. To provide context, you have to realize what Portland just went through during the Raymond Felton Era. He showed up out of shape, melted down in fourth quarters time and again, called out his coach publicly, invited fans and critics to his home (broadcasting the name of the condo in which he lived) for a personal confrontation, put up the worst shooting numbers of his career (which got inflated a little during meaningless end of season games) and turned the ball over like crazy. Competency would be a luxury compared to Felton so of course Lowry’s skill level and reasonable contract would be very attractive to a team in this situation. Remember also that Portland does not have another option at point guard right now. Rookie guard Nolan Smith didn’t particularly look like an NBA player this season and he’s almost 24 years old. Whoever is brought in as the starter will be asked to play heavy minutes.

In terms of trades for Lowry, I’m not sure I see an obvious package. Portland is asset-deficient after executing a number of 3-for-1 or 2-1 deals over the previous couple of years and the younger guys have yet to break out and/or stay healthy. Portland’s best trade assets currently are its two lottery picks (assuming New Jersey’s transfers per the top-3 protection this season) and they’ve made it clear those picks are very available. Aldridge and Batum are guys they want long-term. Matthews is not untouchable but I doubt he would be of much interest. Portland would have trouble parting with him, anyway, because of the anticipated departure of Jamal Crawford and the health problems to Elliot Williams. I think to boil this down: unless Houston really wants a lottery pick this year there’s not a great deal to be found.

Huq: If the Magic do indeed deal Dwight Howard, would the Blazers be open to trading Aldridge for him or is that too great of a risk (without an extension)? Would they be able to manuever far enough beneath the cap to trade for Howard and also sign Deron Williams?

Golliver: I don’t foresee any situation in which Dwight Howard has interest in playing for Portland. I also don’t foresee any situation in which Deron Williams has interest in playing for Portland. That’s the major factor in almost all superstar moves these days unless a genius like Kevin O’Connor is involved. I don’t see that type of executive in either New Jersey or Orlando.

Comment here.

This kind of insight is why ‘Inside the NBA’ is the best show on television.

A note: I wish I hadn’t been so young when Hakeem was here because I’m just now making observations when seeing reruns of his.  One thing that just came to mind: aside from just how ridiculous his arsenal was in its entirety, what even made him think  to expand it in such ways?  As humans, we learn by imitation and attempt new things through emulation.  What made him think “I as a big man should put my soccer footwork to good and use these guard moves and cross people over and spin on them.”

Stepping aside from basketball, a big part of emulation is the knowledge that something can be done and the confidence/reassurance that brings just simply because someone else has done it with success.  So I think one of the big things about Hakeem that isn’t appreciated is the creativity and confidence to even reach that point of inventing post moves…

A final note on Hakeem: When news breaks of Hakeem’s tutelage of some superstar, the reaction almost always is, “Why haven’t the Rockets hired him as a coach?”  Think for a second.

You’re the greatest consultant in the world in a particular field.  Would you work in-house somewhere and handle low-profile, unspectacular clients?  Or instead, would you stay independent and only handle the best and as they sought you out?  The answer is fairly obvious.

Goran Dragic, Greg Smith, and Patrick Patterson after the jump.

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I started a post last night with the intent of dissecting the ‘Scola at the 5’ lineups in comparison to the other frontcourt options the team had.  NBA.com has production breakdowns of every lineup combination for every team’s roster so I was looking into Scola-Patterson.  I got overwhelmed and gave up.  There was just simply too much information available.  Lazy of me, I know, but I didn’t feel like spending an hour dissecting that stuff.  But it’s all out there, and statistically at least, the Rockets know if that lineup decision McHale made so often actually hurt the team.  From a visual observation standpoint, at least, it seemed to me–and I would think the majority of you–that it killed them.

I don’t think the scenario that brings Dwight Howard to Houston is that far-fetched given what we know.  Thus far, everything has fallen into place with it looking like the Magic will have to deal him.  The only real fear is some dark horse suitor–like Portland–emerging at the 11th hour.  At this moment, of the teams that reportedly had had interest in a rental, Houston looks to be able to offer the best package.

After vehemently endorsing a tank job in preseason, I wrote around mid-year that the Rockets, after racing too far ahead of the pack, absolutely had to make the playoffs to avert a potential PR disaster.  They didn’t and, as expected, it’s happening.  Three straight years at 14 sounds really, really bad.  I don’t typically preach ‘making a move for the hell of it’ but the team might just have to do that to assuage the public.

Did you know Dwyane Wade is 30?  I didn’t.  I knew he was at least 28, but 30?  Why are people saying the Heat have a huge window?  They have like, 2 years left, max.  I guess there’s something to playing with your friends, but if Lebron had chosen the Bulls, they might have won 7 straight titles.

I cleared out my 7-9 tonight in anticipation of watching Clippers-Knicks.  I didn’t know Chris Paul wouldn’t be playing.  As I just tweeted, this is like watching Julia Roberts when you thought you were getting Salma Hayek.

I don’t have time these days to watch every playoff game as I did in the past.  So I have to ration accordingly.  But I intend to watch every game of Clippers-Grizzlies, a matchup that will put in my opinion the best player in the NBA in Chris Paul against maybe the most well balanced team with the most feared defender geared up to hound the former.  Apart from that, I’m not sure I even plan to watch much of any of the other series’ unless its right in front of me.  I’m just hoping Chicago faces Miami at some point as well as LA against LA.

The Rockets won, improving their playoff odds to higher than the 2.3% it stood at this afternoon.  We’ll need to keep an eye on the development with Phoenix and Utah, but for tonight, in my eyes, the big story was the benching of Kyle Lowry. The team’s former MVP did not see a single minute in the second half.  We asked McHale about this and, as you just heard, he responded, he was “just trying to win a game.”  We did not get a chance to talk to Kyle.

Also interesting were McHale’s comments on Marcus Morris.  They provide a little bit of insight into why Morris may not have gotten much time this season. If you joined me on Twitter, I raved about Morris’ offensive arsenal after the forward scored six points in the second quarter including a beautiful turnaround from the corner.  I asked McHale about Morris’ stint tonight, expecting a positive response, but instead, he pointed out the mental errors the rookie forward made on the defensive end.

I see offense.  But McHale, needing to win, can’t afford defensive miscues. Mental lapses might be the one thing coaches tolerate least.  That’s why guys like Shane Battier and Patrick Patterson (this year) are still held in such high esteem despite their apparent offensive inabilities.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Lowry.  Tonight, combined with the shouting match during the Denver game, combined with the Dragic free agency situation makes me think it’s a safe bet Kyle will be dealt in the offseason.

Dirk finished with 35 after scoring just 4 points in the first half.  Vince Carter turned back the clock, keeping Dallas in it in the first half, including a pair of uncontested dunks.  Jason Terry was Jason Terry and Jason Kidd hit some timely 3′s.

The good guys were led by Goran Dragic and Courtney Lee who combined for 36 points.  Luis Scola (18 points) had some beautiful moves inside.  But the most impressive contributor by far was Marcus Camby, listed as a game-time decision, who logged 37 grueling minutes, grimacing in pain with each motion.  The old man finished with 17 boards in total, adding to my amazement and cementing the axiom that gifted specialists are the one breed which enjoy longevity in basketball.

As things technically aren’t completely over, I’ll save the brunt of the big picture discussion for next week.  (You never want to be the guy writing the obituary for the dead guy that wakes up in the operating room.)  But I share your frustration. What can you really do?  The only thing that saves what has transpired this past week as going down as the most epic collapse in Houston sports history is the fact that sadly, it didn’t even really matter: no one gave them a chance in the postseason to begin with and most in the city didn’t even care.

I’m searching for a silver lining but there really are none to be found.  Bill and Bull ‘explained’ after the game that experiences like this were necessary and that from it, the team would grow and get better, a sentiment with which I heartily disagree.  ’Learning experiences’ are the story for teams with cemented nucleus’ (nuclei?) around which they plan to build around and keep for the long haul. That’s not the case here where it’s up in the air if even the two biggest contributors will return and pretty much any and everyone will be on the block.

But there will be plenty of time for reflection upon this season once it officially ends.

For now, the team gets back at it at New Orleans tonight.  It probably doesn’t matter.

The Suns have games remaining against OKC, the Clippers, Denver, the Jazz, and the Spurs, a ‘who’s who’ murderer’s row of opponents.  Except for that last game where one would expect Pops to rest his big guns, one could easily see Phoenix drop all of those matchups.  But that still leaves Denver, Dallas, and Utah to compete with Houston for the last three spots.

The Jazz have a joke of a schedule remaining, headlined by two with the Aldridge-less Blazers and one with the Howard-less Magic.  Their only true test left is against Phoenix.

The Mavs have games left against Houston, Golden State, Chicago, and Atlanta.  Who knows what to make of that…will the Bulls have the #1 seed locked up?  Will the Hawks still be fighting out the 4-5-6?  These things are too difficult to forecast.

Finally, the Nuggets close out with the Clippers, Suns, Magic, Thunder, and Timberwolves.  That schedule is a tossup.

After an embarrassing week, the Rockets also don’t own the tiebreaker against any of these other clubs.  So here we are, hoping for the best when a week ago the team controlled it’s own destiny.  So it goes for the Rockets this season.  One probably should not have expected anything less.

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I asked on Twitter yesterday if any of you would support a decision to bench Kyle Lowry and roll with the lineup that knocked off the Bulls and Lakers for these final games.  After all – desperate times call for drastic measures.  The team has looked completely out of sync since Lowry’s return with players no longer seeming to know their roles in this new rotation.  Where before, Dragic was the undisputed ball-controller, things seem to have bogged down.  The question was posed tongue-in-cheek but to my surprise, the majority of you responded affirmatively.  Rest assured, that won’t happen.  As one reader put it, the long-term benefits of playing Lowry far exceed any short term potential gain.  Besides, if you bench him now, you lose him forever.

The more interesting scenario would involve bringing back Kevin Martin, a move I would fully endorse.  Why not?  The argument against, for these past few weeks, was that his return would throw off the chemistry this rotation had developed.  However, with Lowry’s return already causing that damage, there’s probably nothing left to lose by bringing back the other backcourt opening day starter.

If I’m McHale, I’d bring back Martin and create two separate quintets.  I’d start Dragic, Lee, Parsons, Camby, and Scola, the group that beat the Lakers and Bulls, and play them together in the first and first half of the third.  I’d then bring off the bench, as one complete unit, Lowry, Martin, Budinger, Dalembert, and Patterson to play the second, latter half of the third and former half of the fourth.  (The ironic part about that second group is that four of the five players were opening day starters.)

I pose this suggestion more in jest but I’m sure it would have its merits.  As I said, why not at this point?  You keep in tact groups that have played together and instill some sense of accountability.  The group that plays the best gets to close out the fourth quarter.  Good thing I’m not an NBA coach or ideas like playing Luis Scola at the ‘5’ would seem tame in comparison..

Speaking of, that was all the talk after Monday night’s loss as Kevin McHale once again closed with two power forwards.  From Twitter, to the radio airwaves, to the pages of the Internet, loyalists everywhere screamed in frustration over the decision that has seemingly lost so many games.  I’d like to one day ask Daryl Morey his thoughts on the lineup and whether it’s value is affirmed by any stretch of numbers because, from the naked eye, it seems to have brought nothing but evil.

I did notice the other night, digging for something, via 82games, that Patrick Patterson leads the entire NBA in crunch time +/-, for whatever that’s worth.  So there’s that.  (The team is a -3.2 overall with the Patterson/Scola lineup.  I don’t seem to have any 2-man crunch time stats.)  They want Patterson in there for his keen sense of defensive rotations, a decision I agree with.  But paired with Scola, it’s difficult to watch.  Still, I can’t fault McHale too much on that call as a center probably would not have fared well guarding Al Harrington on the perimeter.

Speaking of Patterson, the last sophomore slump this bad that I can remember is when the guy that sat in front of me in 10th grade Algebra opted not to retake his mid-term when given the chance–after making a 33–because “it ain’t worth it.”

At this rate, with Marcus Morris also already sidelined, one hopes the Rockets have better luck with this year’s #14.

I’m now seriously starting to wonder if it might be better to just keep our pick rather than back into the playoffs by default.  I just don’t know at this point.  Knowing this team, I could see them, after all of this, still upsetting Oklahoma City in the first round.  Nothing would shock me at this point.

Goran Dragic and Chandler Parsons led the way for the good guys with 21 apiece.  Courtney Lee chipped in 18.  For the Nugets, Arron Afflalo and Ty Lawson combined for 51.

After the game, many wondered why Sam Dalembert, after having blocked 7 shots up to that point, did not see time in the final frame.  Kevin McHale closed the game with a lineup of Dragic-Lee-Parsons-Patterson-Scola, or, more amiably known around these parts as “Scola at the 5.”  I sort of understand the decision.  I discovered earlier tonight, via some snooping on 82games.com that Patterson leads the entire league in crunch time +/-; and of course it makes sense to send out Scola to fill the need for a post threat.  Still, it seems nothing good has ever come from this lineup.  If the team misses the postseason, we will not forget its evil.

Most interesting was Kyle Lowry’s absence from the game in the deciding minutes.  To be honest, his return seems to have been a factor in the team’s poor play.  A unit that was once in sync no longer seems to have defined roles…

Matt Bullard mentioned on the broadcast last night that the Rockets shouldn’t just bring in Marcus Morris and immediately run ISO plays for him.  It’s not possible for me to disagree any more with that statement.  As I’ve explained in the past, Morris’ only value to the team is as a one-on-one scorer.  That’s why they drafted him and why they hope to convert him to the ‘3’.  He isn’t a player like Chandler Parsons or Patrick Patterson who can be on the floor and help the team in other ways.  It’s a waste of everyone’s time having him out there and not feeding him the ball.  In the third, when Marcus Camby went out (more on this below), the team’s offense completely fell apart.  It’s too late this year, but without a star on the roster, a scorer like Morris is the type of guy the team needs to implement into its lineup going forward.  In the clip above, we see Morris make two big-time NBA moves.  First, he pivots and spins into a turnaround, hitting a shot that noone on this roster–Scola included–has in their arsenal.  Next, he comes down, smoothly crosses over and nails the pull-up jumper, demonstrating that the hard work he has put in on his ball-handling has paid off.  The points came in garbage time and were meaningless.  But they are a small glimpse of what Morris can provide.  Without isolation options in the lineup, the Rockets are forced to explore paths like Patterson in the post; teams can’t run motion sets every trip down.  Hopefully next year, Morris will get his chance.

• As I mentioned above, the team fell apart when Camby exited.  It flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but watching things closely, perhaps just simply due to the dropoff, I think Camby’s greater value to this team is on the offensive end.  McHale likes to position him at the free throw line and bring Dragic around a pick; after the pass-back, Camby plays quarterback, feeding teammates from the high post.  With Dalembert in the game, the Rockets have the center roll to the hoop as he can’t make those same passes.  The only problem is that Bert is no Amare Stoudemire and hence you see some of the problems the team faces offensively at the ‘5’.
• Speaking of Dally, I wrote last week “to get used to the Camby/Dally” duo and that the team couldn’t be getting much better than this combo.  I have to take this back.  Dally’s drastic dropoff since the demotion combined with Dragic’s increased pricetag points towards the team likely waiving the former this summer.  Depending on other variables (draft picks, Motiejunas), without Dalembert, the team could have roughly $12million of wiggle room with which to manufacture a trade.  Bringing him back would bring them down to around $5million.  Given his recent play, and the increasing confidence in Camby, I think the braintrust will opt to just give Greg Smith his shot.
• I do still think the team will make the postseason.  Hey, they are what they are.  A pretty good team that’s not as good as they have looked at times.  It’s frustrating but it’s a reminder why one should not live off the highs and lows of the streaks within a season.  The bigger concern is the club’s upward trajectory and path to improvement, a topic I’ve harped on ad nauseum at Red94.  I’ll spare you the rant for now until May rolls around.
• The Rockets will give it another shot tonight at Toyota Center against those same Nuggets.

The last time I used the liveblog plugin I plan to use tonight, the site crashed. But we’ll try again.  If things work, the page will update on its own with new thoughts, as they happen.  Fingers crossed.  Join me at 7, tonight.

UPDATE: I believe you have to refresh the page to see new updates.

From my vantage point, this game was lost because, in the third quarter, the Rockets stopped running the high screen and roll with which they usually have success.  Kevin McHale said that the Suns began packing the paint with what he called “a soft shell.”  As the Rockets did not hit shots, the Suns stayed in the shell.  I asked Goran about this after the game, but his response did not offer much clarity: he said that he had to make the pass after coming off the screen as the Suns were trapping him with two players.

In the first quarter, the Rockets would run Dragic around a Camby high-post screen.  Dragic would then either get all the way to the lane or kick back out to Camby who would initiate from the high post.  Camby would then either find a cutter–sometimes Dragic–or swing it to a flashing Luis Scola, either in the post or on the wing.  It was textbook Rockets basketball.

In the third, the Rockets completely went away from this, running various ISO sets, sometimes even posting up Patrick Patterson.  It’s when the team is at its worst.  I still don’t understand what happened.  Why do they go away from the motion offense?  I didn’t see any adjustment by the defense that warranted the switch.  Weren’t they trapping the point guard all along?

In any event, after a 4-0 road trip, the Rockets lose another backbreaker at home.  If they miss the postseason, they’ll have only themselves to blame.  They control their own destiny at this point.

The Rockets again, like Wednesday night, made a furious comeback, but it was for naught.  They got back into it with a small ball lineup that allowed them to work the ball around the perimeter after an initial Dragic-Scola pick and roll.  Chase Budinger and Chandler Parsons did damage from the wings.

While the lineup did bring the Rockets back, the team had zero paint protection as they gave up some costly points in the paint near the end.  “Scola at the 5” worked on one end but hurt on the other.  Still, it’s probably hard to blame the coaching decision as that lineup did bring the Rockets back into the game.

Marcus Camby had probably the oddest stat line of the game, grabbing 18 rebounds in the first half, but zero in the second.  In fact, he didn’t see a minute in the fourth quarter.  After the game, he said it was the coach’s decision.

The team must now find a way to regroup after yet another backbreaking loss to a playoff contender.  They will have to find ways to beat the Nuggets, Hornets, Mavs, or Heat. Luckily, they take to the road where perhaps, they find greatest comfort.

The other major storyline in this one was the battle of mentor-mentee in front of a national audience for a final playoff spot.  Nash, at 38, clawing for a last chance, against Dragic, beginning his career as a star, trying to lead his team to the second season.  Nash finished with 18 and 10 assists.  Dragic had 22 and 7.

Watching closely, the contrast in styles was evident.  Both players were masterful in the pick and roll, but Dragic would bull his way to the hoop with long strides while Nash would get crafty with a low dribble.  Late in the first half, when Phoenix ran its offense from the high key through Nash, allowing him to hit cutters with one handed standing passes, one could see how far Dragic would have to go.  Nash is a two time MVP for a reason.

On one particular play in the third, Nash drove and pushed off Dragic with a stiff forearm, sending him to the floor.  He then nailed a jumper.  At the other end, Dragic drove, stepped back, faked the shot drawing Nash off his feet, and then leaned in for the scoop shot, drawing the foul.  The pair were an absolute joy to watch.

April 13, 2012 7:18 PM Camby swats away a Gortat turnaround in the paint.  Gortat’s first possession of the game

April 13, 2012 7:19 PM Both teams are running the same high screen and roll offense right now.  The score is 10-9.

April 13, 2012 7:20 PM This time down the floor, the Rockets use Parsons on the high screen and roll rather than Dragic.  The second-rounder demonstrates his versatility, dribbling smoothly around and then finding an open Luis Scola in the corner for the jumpshot.  The Suns call timeout.  When a 6’10 small forward can run the pick and roll effectively, it gives you options.

April 13, 2012 7:25 PM Camby plays at the high post on every possession.  This time we see why.  Dragic comes off the high screen and flips it back out to Camby.  Camby then feeds a cutting Dragic for the layin.  On the ensuing possession, Camby dumped in a floater from a few feet closer.

April 13, 2012 7:26 PM Marcus Camby’s fingerprints are all over this game so far.  6 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists.  4:28 still remaining.  Has any trade deadline pickup had a bigger impact?  I know some will say Gerald Wallace but….well…it’s the Nets.

April 13, 2012 7:28 PM The Rockets have based pretty much every offensive possession of this game off of the same set so far tonight: Dragic/Camby screen and roll.

April 13, 2012 7:29 PM The Suns offense has markedly changed from how they started.  No more screen and roll.  They are now positioning Nash near the elbow and running cutters through the lane.  He is hitting them with one handed passes.  I guess you have the luxury to do that when your point guard is a future Hall of Famer.

April 13, 2012 7:30 PM Grant Hill’s shoes are bright orange.

April 13, 2012 7:36 PM Patrick Patterson makes perhaps the first impressive post move of his two year career, spinning away from his defender and fading away.

April 13, 2012 7:37 PM Markief Morris at the line shooting two.  As Marcus Morris looks on.

April 13, 2012 7:38 PM Forgot to mention that Wade Philips is in the house but did not draw near the ovation a reigning Coach of the Year would deserve.  Oh…Kubiak won it?….Oh….

April 13, 2012 7:39 PM Lowry has been in at point for Dragic for the past few possessions.  He hasn’t gotten to the rim as easily as Dragic did.  But they’ve looked to Patterson on the baseline.  The team is basically running the same offense with Lowry/Patterson as they had with Dragic/Scola.  38-year-old Marcus Camby in the high post has been the only constant.

April 13, 2012 7:43 PM Michael Redd nails a jumper.  The Cavs could have used that in 2004.

April 13, 2012 7:44 PM Michael Redd hits another.  I’ve seen this script before.  It didn’t end well…

April 13, 2012 7:45 PM Sebastian Telfair in now at point guard for Steve Nash.  Despite what you thought of him in Through the Fire, this is a dropoff…

April 13, 2012 7:46 PM Dalembert and Lowry are in at the 1-5.  The Rockets have not run a single screen and roll this quarter.  Chandler Parsons skies in for the one handed layin attempt; Markieff Morris blocks it; Marcus Morris looks on.

April 13, 2012 7:48 PM All of the Rockets’ points this quarter have come in transition or on breakdowns.  Not a single screen and roll.  (8:35 remaining in the 2nd.)  They looked infinitely better with Dragic-Camby, though I think more of that had to do with Camby than Dragic vs. Lowry.

April 13, 2012 7:52 PM Redd has taken like 20 shots already.

April 13, 2012 7:53 PM The Rockets now have both point guards in the game together with Dalembert at the ‘5’.  They run their first Dalembert screen and roll and Bert rolls to the hoop for the dunk attempt and gets fouled.  They never have Camby actually roll.

April 13, 2012 7:54 PM I have no idea how the Suns have managed to keep this game close with Steve Nash on the bench.  The Rockets will look back on this if they lose.

April 13, 2012 7:57 PM Michael Redd has now taken 30 shots in this ball-game.

April 13, 2012 7:58 PM Camby throws in an offensive board.  Now with 10 points, 13 boards, 4 assists, and 3 blocks.  5 minutes still remaining.  In the half.

April 13, 2012 8:03 PM Dragic just schooled his mentor, driving, stepping back out, pump faking the jumper and leaning in for the shot attempt.  Got fouled.  Beautiful play.  His one on one skills are hugely underrated.  Slovenian Manu?

April 13, 2012 8:04 PM Old man Camby now has 17 boards.  4 minutes remaining here in the 1st half.

April 13, 2012 8:05 PM 3:24 remaining in the second and the Rockets lead just 45-43.  Feels like a rout. No idea how Phoenix has kept this close.

April 13, 2012 8:07 PM I never noticed this before, but the Rockets rarely run screen and rolls with Lowry.  Was this the case before the injury and Camby trade?  I can’t remember.  They’re almost running two completely different offenses depending on who is running point guard.

April 13, 2012 8:10 PM The Rockets run a high screen and roll with Lowry who finds Budinger in the corner–his sweet spot–for a ‘3’.

April 13, 2012 8:12 PM Jared Dudley nails a 3 from the corner giving him 13.  I didn’t realize he was this good.  As I type that, Lowry answers from the corner with a triple of his own.

April 13, 2012 8:14 PM Last play of the half, Lowry comes off a Camby pick and

second half

April 13, 2012 8:38 PM 9 minutes remaining in the 3rd.  I stayed in the press room too long.  The Suns are now up 2.  What happened while I was gone?

April 13, 2012 8:39 PM 65-61 now, Suns.  The Rockets will be kicking themselves if they let this one get away.

April 13, 2012 8:47 PM Scola with 12 right now.  He’s going to have to be able to kill the likes of Channing Frye for the Rockets to have a chance in the Western Conference playoffs.  He’s the only thing they have even remotely resembling an inside presence.

April 13, 2012 8:48 PM Lee hits a bailout jumper but the Rockets’ offense has really looked discombobulated here, a far cry from the precision with which they worked in the first quarter.  They seem to have abandoned the high screen and roll with Dragic/Camby which had been working so well.

April 13, 2012 8:48 PM What is this rendition of “Jump” that they play here during jumpballs?  That’s not Kriss Kross.

April 13, 2012 8:49 PM Dragic forces up a 3 and misses.  The offense has looked awful here in the third.

April 13, 2012 8:52 PM The Rockets post Patterson up on Frye and he turns around and misses.  The offense has looked absolutely horrendous.  Why have they gone away from the high screen and roll?  Everything has been isolation.  The Rockets can only win with movement, either player or ball.

April 13, 2012 8:53 PM Courtney Lee comes off a Patterson screen and Patterson is called for the offensive foul.  Where is the high screen and roll?  It’s now 74-67.

April 13, 2012 8:57 PM I’d be willing to bet that if you pulled the video of every single Rockets loss this year, or even every dry spell, you’d see that the correlating factor was a lack of movement.  This is not an isolation team.  They must move to score.  When they play one on one, everything falls apart.  Even Scola postups are at their best when they come at the end of some dish-off, rather than as a set entity.

April 13, 2012 8:58 PM The Rockets play fabulous defense on this play with Kyle Lowry denying Steve Nash the ball.  2:15 left in the third.

April 13, 2012 8:59 PM We see our first high screen and roll but it results in a Camby free throw line jumper.  Not what we were looking for.  On the other end, Redd nails a ‘3’.  The lead swells to 10.  This is looking bad.  Fans getting restless.  A few boos.

April 13, 2012 8:59 PM Patterson in the post should be the last option.  Always.  ALWAYS.

April 13, 2012 9:01 PM The lead is now at 12.  This quarter has been a complete and utter disaster.  If the Rockets miss the postseason, they will look back on this third quarter as the moment it all got away.  With that said, I do expect them to make a run and come back in the 4th.  They always do.  Let’s hope that this time, they have enough in the tank to close it out.

April 13, 2012 9:10 PM As the lead swells to 15, I start to wonder if perhaps we might be better off with that first round pick.  Must. push. thoughts. away..

April 13, 2012 9:11 PM I’m struggling to figure out what happened.  Why did the Rockets go away from their gameplan?  Was it on account of some switch by the Suns which I hadn’t noticed?  They were running screen and roll between Camby and Dragic with Scola finding the open spots, in the first quarter.  They switched to some form of Steve Francis iso-ball in the third…

April 13, 2012 9:14 PM Last stand for the Rockets.  9 minutes remaining and a 13 point deficit.  Dragic, Scola, Lowry, Budinger, Parsons take the floor.  Still no Steve Nash…

April 13, 2012 9:17 PM Telfair drills a ‘3’ pushing the lead to 16.  Sucks the air out of the building.

April 13, 2012 9:19 PM The Rockets finally run a high screen and roll and it results in Lowry getting to the line after a kickout.

April 13, 2012 9:23 PM Scola now at the ‘5’.  As a reader put it, “McHale is now desperate.”  Not since Matt Bullard started at the ‘4’ with Walt Williams next to him on the frontline have I abhorred a manifestation of the Rockets’ lineup more than “Scola at the 5.”  That phrase will be etched in infamy on this season’s gravestone.

April 13, 2012 9:25 PM The Rockets have now gone back to the high screen and roll.  Still not scoring.  On the other hand, Sebastian Telfair is.

April 13, 2012 9:26 PM This is the worst Goran Dragic has looked in about a month.  I wonder if the return of Kyle Lowry has thrown off his timing.

April 13, 2012 9:27 PM Nash pushes off Dragic with a forearm, sending him to the ground and drilling the jumper.  I have a friend who does this.  One of the most effective moves in the game.

April 13, 2012 9:29 PM The Rockets have cut the lead to 10 and are making a push with 4:02 remaining.  The Suns actually looked better with Telfair than Nash.

April 13, 2012 9:31 PM The Rockets run an absolutely beautiful motion set resulting in a Parsons dunk.  At the other end, Nash is bailed out by a horrific call after Parsons forces him into an errant circus flip attempt.

April 13, 2012 9:32 PM The Rockets are now running high screen and roll exclusively and are getting results.  Dragic back at the line.  Why did they go away from this?

April 13, 2012 9:33 PM Lead down to 7 as Gortat throws Scola to the floor.  On the previous possession, he snatched the rebound away and scored.  Timeout on the court.  Fans hoping desperately for one last push.

April 13, 2012 9:37 PM Jared Dudley blows by to the rim and lays it in.  Why is Camby not in the game?  We need paint protection.

April 13, 2012 9:39 PM It’s now down to a 5 point game.  Interestingly, the ball has not been in Steve Nash’s hands the last two possessions.  The Suns have instead opted to swing it around with Grant Hill playing the role of decision maker.  Surprising.  At the other end, the Rockets are going with a small ball lineup.

36.2 remaining, the Suns lead 108-100.  I will have more thoughts after the presser.  Follow me on twitter @redninetyfour for live coverage of the Kevin McHale post-game presser….

Including tonight’s showdown (on ESPN) against the Suns, there are eight games remaining.  Home for Phoenix, at Denver, home for Denver, at Dallas, at New Orleans, home for Golden State, at Miami, and home for New Orleans.

The two against New Orleans should be complete ‘gimmes.’  The Warriors have given the Rockets fits in recent years, but that was before the trade that sent Monta Ellis to Milwaukee.  At Miami is an expected loss but is winnable – in fact, any game against any team in the NBA is winnable for the Houston Rockets.

The next four game stretch will determine the season.  If they win two from this quartet set, they should get in.  If they lay an egg, there could be a Houston representative at the draft lottery.  Let’s cross our fingers and hope that the team takes care of business.  The clunker against Utah was disappointing, but a letdown was eventually to be expected.

Tonight’s matchup will feature a high-stakes showdown between mentor and mentee as Steve Nash squares off against Goran Dragic.  Expect a shootout – the Suns are tenth in the league in pace and eighth in overall offensive efficiency. And of course the home team has no qualms about getting up and down.

Looking ahead: Still no word on Kevin Martin.  With just eight games remaining, it appears he may not be brought back at all.  With so little time left, it would be difficult to re-acclimate him into the lineup with everyone already having found their niche.  If the shoulder suddenly heals, it would be a tough call.  The team could surely use the sharpshooter’s offense off the bench.

I’d expect even heavier doses of Lowry-Dragic in tandem down the stretch.  Even before Martin’s injury, it seemed this was Kevin McHale’s backcourt of choice to close games.  The duo gives the Rockets’ coach options galore to run the side screen and roll and also to push the tempo in transition.  Without a superstar, Houston will have to create some sort of advantage and this small-ball effect is their best bet.

Most importantly, however, the Rockets must keep moving, at all times.  Without isolation scorers, the team runs into trouble when the ball and players stagnate. They must move the ball and more importantly, move players through misdirection, swinging the ball back when the defense is off balance.

Around the NBA: The other big matchups tonight pit the Mavs against Portland and the Nuggets against LA.  Without LaMarcus Aldridge (done of the year), the Mavs should easily take care of business against the Blazers.  Denver-LA is a toss-up.  I’d expect all three of Houston-Dallas-Denver to remain deadlocked at the end of the night.  This thing will come down to the wire.  Luckily there is somewhat of a cushion above 9th and 10th.  But the Rockets must take care of business, starting tonight.

Discuss the playoff push.

This was the most disappointing loss of the year.  A win tonight would have pretty much clinched the playoffs giving the team its first appearance in three years.  Instead of looking up at the homecourt chase, after a 4-0 road trip, the Rockets are back in a dead tie with the Mavs and Nuggets for the 8th seed.  So it goes for the Rockets this season.  They are what they are.  A pretty good team that has wildly overachieved in the face of adversity but not anything close to a contender.

From the start, the Rockets came out flat and got hit early.  By the time they climbed back into it in the fourth, it was too late.  They had run out of gas.  The effort it took to cut down an 18 point deficit did them in and shots stopped falling.

Just extremely, extremely disappointing to see the team come out so flat in such a big game.  But perhaps my expectations have become unreasonable.

I was thinking earlier today, on my drive to Toyota Center, about the Rockets’ offense: top 10 for pretty much the entire season, I thought back on the days when the team would go entire quarters in search of a basket, stubbornly trying to force-feed Yao in the post against fronting defenders.  I smiled thinking, “gone are those days.”  Ironic because the Rockets went ice cold tonight.

Chase Budinger went 2-11 giving the Rockets pretty much nothing.  If Kevin Martin is able to make it back, would he be better in that spot in the rotation?  You could go with Dragic, Lee, Lowry, Martin, Parsons as your perimeter with Camby, Patterson, Scola, and Dalembert upfront.  Given that Dalembert played only ten minutes tonight, and that coaches typically size down their rotations to 8 in the second season, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dally ousted altogether from regular minutes and only thrown in for spot minutes.  Quite the fall from grace for the former starter.

The good: it seems Kyle Lowry is fully back.

The problem is with timing. The Rockets have spent years retooling the roster to have the cap space they would have this summer. It is not likely to be filled with a max-contract free agent, but could be extremely valuable in a trade for the kind of star player the Rockets have lacked.

That kind of deal does not come quickly. Free agent decisions will likely move much faster. The Rockets would have to decide whether to keep that space or fill it with Dragic and Courtney Lee.

A good case could be made for bringing back the free agent guards, especially the way the Rockets are coming together and both are playing. But the Rockets would have to decide that they can live longer without that signature star. It’s still possible to make such a huge trade with the trade pieces they have, but it’s tougher when teams might only make that move to cut costs before the heavier luxury taxes kick in.

That kind of deal is far from a sure thing – or even likely – in either circumstance, but if it is difficult with loads of cap space, it is brutally tough without it, as the Rockets have seen the past two seasons of coming close but coming up short.

All things considered, the Rockets should give themselves until the free-agent signing date to make that kind of deal. If they can’t by then, keep what they have and keep trying.

First, this team as currently composed is not a title contender.  Don’t let this recent hot streak fool you.  Having said that, if the pursuit of a star means sacrificing one of Courtney Lee or Goran Dragic, count me out.  That small hope of a blockbuster–the one the team has been clinging to for several years–is not worth sacrificing a member of its core without compensation.

I’ve discussed trading Kyle Lowry.  In that scenario, the team would receive return of his value.  Losing Lee or Dragic, just for hope and chance, is a different case.

The Rockets looked absolutely masterful in that fourth quarter with the two point guards playing in tandem.  I’m becoming convinced that the lineups which see Dragic and Lowry sharing the backcourt are the team’s best.  They were relentless defensively and a blur on the break.

One particular play stood out, lending towards an idea: Jamal Crawford danced, spun, drove into the lane, only to have the ball stripped by Lowry, leading to a fastbreak.  While Crawford isn’t particularly large, he is regarded as one of the game’s shiftiest players.  All along, in the panic to keep Dragic, the popular sentiment among many has been to move him to the ‘2’, next season.  The idea made more sense, in theory, than the proposition of playing Lowry at the ‘2’, due to the players’ respective heights.  But is that the proper way to think about the matter?

Offense isn’t an issue – they can be interchangeable and sort things out.  Lowry can’t guard point guards (see Parker, Paul, Westbrook destructions of Lowry earlier this year) and Goran can.  We’ve asked whether Dragic could guard shooting guards.  It’s time to ask whether Lowry can, full-time.

I point to former Rocket David Wesley as a historical archetype who at barely 6’0 and a similar build as Lowry, was regarded as one of the game’s best defensive shooting guards.  With the Hornets, Wesley was that team’s most effective defender against 6’9 Magic forward Tracy McGrady, using his low center of gravity to bother him in the blocks.  I also point to Derek Fisher who, while with the Jazz, gave McGrady fits on the defensive end, similarly using his bulk to his advantage.

The 7 offensive rebounds are alarming, but might have been resultant of poor boxouts from the frontcourt rather than some effect of an undersized backcourt.  We’ll need to dig deeper when we have more data at season’s end, on this, and on the overall production of the Lowry-Dragic combo when sharing the court.  For now, perhaps there is hope to retain both.  Can Lowry guard shooting guards over the course of an 82 game season?

A final note: Patrick Patterson was instrumental in helping the team pull away by frustrating Lamarcus Aldridge inside.  It was good to see him do well after a difficult stretch in March.

• What to do with Kevin Martin at this point?  How do you even risk tinkering with this lineup?  In theory, he’d be perfect instant offense off the bench.  But let’s say he comes back towards the end of the season.  Can you afford to change things up that close to the playoffs?  We really underestimate it, but unless you’re the Spurs and have been together for a decade, it’s absolutely crucial to have everything in sync and in rhythm.  Guys can’t be confused over their roles.  Is there a chance Kevin Martin isn’t brought back?  I think if the shoulder doesn’t heal soon, that could possibly happen.  Kevin McHale doesn’t care about feelings.
• Despite Friday’s win, the Lakers are still the one West team I fear most.  Too much potential to destroy the Rockets inside with Bynum.  And you know Kobe will be locked in.
• Speaking of Friday’s win: after the Spurs, are the Rockets the most remarkable story in the NBA?  I don’t know if I’m just biased but this is unbelievable.  What other team in the NBA would be winning these games without its supposed two best players and not only staying afloat but climbing up the standings?
• Re: Camby – The team just looks so different this year with him and Dalembert.  The viewer is almost afforded a certain psychological sense of relief.  Ever play pickup with a big man behind you?  Things just feel different.  I feel like you almost play harder, knowing big brother is behind you to watch your back.  In previous years, the Rockets played their hearts out, but you almost held your breath at the prospect of getting a rebound or a stop in the paint.  Now, you almost feel safe as if the team can withstand any onslaught.  Even with Yao–who was one of the best space protectors in the game–second chance rebounds were an adventure.  With Camby, that’s not an issue.  If only he were a few years younger, we’d have a long term solution.

Even if Lee starts on Bryant, rest assured Parsons will see time in that matchup. Kobe might torch him. Kobe might go cold. It doesn’t matter. As the Rockets have learned over the years, you can live with Kobe taking jump shots. If he’s on, there’s nothing anyone can do. That last game was lost by the Lakers not because the Rockets beat them but because they beat themselves. Andrew Bynum got tossed and Mike Brown inexplicably went away from Ramon Sessions when he was completely picking the Houston defense apart.

I also had a few questions for Andy myself, to run here:

Huq: What kind of impact has Sessions had on the Lakers?  After seeing him pick apart the Rockets, I thought he made the Lakers the favorites in the West.

Kamenetzky: I wouldn’t go so far as to peg the Lakers as the conference’s new sheriff in town, but Sessions definitely makes them better. Individually, he adds so many dynamics sorely missing before the deadline. Speed. A threat to attack the rim. A perimeter player not named “Kobe” or “Bryant” capable of creating his own shot or breaking down defenders in space. A second pick-and-roll ball handler — technically speaking, a third, but Pau Gasol is judicious initiating 4/5 action  — and a very good one at that. As of late, he’s also developing better chemistry with Kobe, whether running 1/2 pick-and-roll or just finding each other on the floor. In three April games, Kobe’s shooting 61.9 percent from the field. On a very related note, according to ESPN Stats and Info, 24 of his 39 buckets (61.5 percent) have been assisted, compared to 42.3 percent in December-March. Some of this is the effect of Sessions and being able to work off ball more often.

In the meantime, his outside shot has been surprisingly wet. The book on Sessions was a lack of range, but with the Lakers, he’s shooting 50 percent from 16-23 feet and 54.5 percent from downtown. It’s hard to picture him maintaining numbers that scorching, but then again, he’s never played with teammates as good as Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. As Rockets fans know all too well, a floor unit like that can make Trevor Ariza a pretty good 3 point shooter.

Defensively, he’s not especially strong, and often gets lost defending pick-and-roll. (Irony alert!) But all in all, he’s been a very positive addition, and can hopefully continue to get better as the playoffs approach.

Huq: We all heard the rumors prior to the deadline.  Obviously the acquisition of Ramon Sessions probably makes it a moot point going forward this summer, but how did Lakers observers feel about the reported Rockets’ package for Pau Gasol. Did those covering the team feel Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry was a satisfactory return?

Kamenetzky: Well, in our neck of the woods, the rumored haul was actually Scola, Kevin Martin and Goran Dragic, the original pieces heading to N’Awlins. And generally speaking, I think the consensus reaction was underwhelming. Scola is a lesser, albeit less expensive, version of Pau. Kobe and Martin (who struggles to stay healthy), are redundant to a certain degree. And while some might argue Dragic is underrated, he’s nonetheless not Lowry. The Lakers might gain some needed depth in this scenario, but nobody close to the player Pau is. My take was to pass.

Were Lowry actually on the table, however, I might have been tempted to make the deal. Even as a fan going back to his ‘Nova days, the leap he’s taken over the last two years has surprised me. Lowry’s steady improvement has been very impressive to watch. He’s only 26, entering his prime, and if never an official All-Star, Lowry could be “All-Star adjacent” enough to making relocating Pau palpable. Particularly for a team in desperate need of upgrading at the point.

Of course, Gasol/Sessions is a better duo than Lowry/Scola, and more importantly, Kobe/Pau or Bynum/Pau are better than either. Thus, events probably shook out for the better.

This post is the latest in a series entitled ‘Goran Dragic vs. Kyle Lowry.’  All previous and future installments can be found via the ‘Dragic vs. Lowry’ tag below.’

This year, in 16 games started, Goran Dragic has averaged 17.6 points and 8.7 assists in 36.6 minutes.  He has shot 53% from the field and 44% from downtown. In the 38 games this year in which he came off the bench, Dragic shot 42% overall from the field and 26% on 3′s.

Overall in his career, Dragic has now started 24 games, averaging 15.8 points and 8.1 assists in 36.7 minutes played.  He’s shot 51% overall and 41% on 3′s in these games.  In the 235 games in his career in which he has come off the bench, Dragic has shot 43% overall and 36% on 3′s.  These career starting numbers are obviously inflated by the 16 games this season.  Let’s break things down further.

In his rookie season, 2008-2009, Dragic started one game.  In that game, he played 30 minutes, scored 5 points, dished 4 assists and shot 29% (2/7) overall. He missed both of his 3 point attempts.  In his 54 games as a reserve that season, Dragic shot 40% overall and 39% from ’3′.

In 2009-2010, Dragic started 2 games.  In those games, he averaged 12.5 points and 6 assists, shooting 56% overall and 50% on 3′s.  In his 78 games as a reserve that year, Dragic shot 45% overall and 39% on 3′s.

In 2010-2011, Dragic started 5 games and came off the bench in 65.  In the starts, he averaged 13.4 points and 7.8 assists in 40.3 minutes, shooting 42% overall and 33% on 3′s.  In his appearances as a reserve, he shot 44% overall and 37% on 3′s.

Discussion:

It’s no secret that Dragic’s numbers as a starter, this season, have been off the charts.  He also fared extremely well in the two or three games he started for the Rockets last year.  (I can’t seem to find those numbers.)  I wanted to look back at his numbers in each individual season of his career to see if there was a trend. Perhaps he’s just better suited as a starter?

As expected, these rudimentary numbers don’t tell us much of anything.  He fared well in the 2 starts of his sophomore year, but that’s far too small a sample size to prove confirmatory.  He was awful as a rookie but….was a rookie.  He was pretty much consistent overall last season (in his games as a Sun.)

Why is all of this important?   To determine, or predict, whether this season will be the norm, we need to understand whether some part of ‘starting’ suits Dragic better, improving his play.  That will help us understand if this year’s production is a fluke.  Obviously, if it’s a fluke, and not close to the norm, it would not be a wise decision to trade Kyle Lowry.

Many NBA players play better off the bench.  In shorter minutes, they can expend more energy and produce more for their team.  The opposite effect is taking place with Dragic.  I noted last season that while intense, he often seemed completely out of control.  Now as a starter, as he said, he’s been able to calm down and pace himself.  This has seemingly affected his shooting.

If we want to be thorough, we should also explore Dragic’s respective turnover percentages.  That examination will come in a later installment.

We could also break things down even further by number of minutes played. How did Dragic play in games when, while coming off the bench, he played for 30+ minutes?  How did he play in games when he played 20+ minutes?  I can assure you that the Rockets have probably run that analysis.  How much would it tell us?  I’m not sure.  Is the impact on shooting the number of minutes or the a priori knowledge that one will play major minutes in that game (ie: starting.)?  I think it’s the latter.

Linsanity at full-force was short-lived.  Most observers of this team would tell you Kyle Lowry and Goran Dragic were both better anyway.  Terrence Williams didn’t work out largely due to his own fault.  To followers of the Houston Rockets, Rudy Gay still stands as ‘the one that got away’ in the Morey era.

Gay was a Rocket for mere minutes.  After selecting him with the 9th pick in the 2006 draft, the Rockets sent him to Memphis–along with Stromile Swift–in exchange for forward Shane Battier.  I’ve described news of that trade before as “at the time, my worst moment as a Rockets fan.”

When the Grizzlies rolled into town on Friday, I decided to ask Gay about the deal.  It’s clear he still thinks about it too:

“I was talking to one of my teammates about what if I stayed here,” said Gay in response.

When I asked him whether he had envisioned himself playing next to Tracy McGrady during that short stint on draft night, Gay responded:

“I did, I did.  I saw myself learning a lot from him and being able to absorb a lot from him.  He’s a great.  I would’ve loved to play behind him or with him.”

It’s a painful picture.  At the time, on that night, I still remember my feelings.  In the running for much of the year to be the #1 overall selection, when he was still available at #9, I was doing backflips.  It was an absolute miracle.  The travesty that was the Houston Rockets’ 2005-2006 season would be made worthwhile.  The Rockets would finally have the young athlete they desperately needed.  (The team had been platooning the likes of Jon Barry and David Wesley opposite T-Mac for the previous two seasons.)  Gay would complement McGrady on the perimeter; he would learn from him; he would give the Rockets the swingman duo that would be the envy of the entire league.

Only the Rockets had different plans.  Minutes after the selection, Ric Bucher came on my television set to announce that the Rockets would be trading Rudy Gay to Memphis for Shane Battier.  I couldn’t move.  I felt nauseous.

It was the first move of the Morey era and still stands as the most controversial.  It was certainly his signature trade.  It was the first bold proclamation that the new regime would be doing things very differently and perhaps not easily understood.  Morey traded a young, unproven athlete for a guy whose contributions weren’t otherwise seen in traditional box scores.

In hindsight, with the way things worked out, even with Gay’s ascent to stardom, I do now think trading Gay for Battier was the right move.

From his second season onward, Gay put up points and did it with flash.  He’s certainly a spectacle.  But after watching Battier, I’m not completely sure Gay would have helped the team more.

Battier anchored some injury-ridden Rockets teams which heavily overachieved.  He defended the other team’s best player; he led; he was a coach on the floor at both ends.

In his five seasons with the team, Battier posted win shares of 9.0, 8.2, 5.2, 4.3, and 4.1.  (Win shares are an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player.)  By comparison, in those years, Gay posted win shares of 0.5, 5.0, 3.3, 6.4, and 5.5.  While Gay probably would have helped the team more in the past two seasons–and now, with Battier having moved on–it’s probably also the case that he wouldn’t have had nearly the impact that Battier did in those first three years.  And those first three years were when the Rockets were contenders.

Gay catching lobs from McGrady and learning from his tutelage is a wondrous vision.  But who would have defended?  Defense was the Rockets’ calling card the last half of this last decade.  Who would have kept the team together through injuries as Battier did?  Maybe it wouldn’t have worked out as well as I had imagined.

Even now, with Gay on the books for $15million, and Memphis just a few games ahead of Houston in the standings, would the Rockets really be that much better off both in the present and long-term?

I live blogged this game and you can find that transcript here.  I stopped writing at overtime wanting to save things for this post-game writeup.  What an absolutely crazy game.  We talked to McHale, Dragic, Chandler, and Lee all after the game, and I’m still not completely sure what happened.  It seems clear though, from their comments, that the other players were not made aware that Dragic had six fouls.  I won’t pin the loss on McHale, simply because it took a miraculous sequence to even have the team back in the game, but man…what a costly, costly blunder.

To end the fourth, the Rockets played the free throw game, tying things up by going for the quick 2 when down 3, and then getting the bailout free throw miss by Collison.  That set Dragic up to tie the game at the line.

In overtime, things quickly got completely out of hand with the Pacers going up 101-95.  But the Rockets miraculously came back, scoring five points in seven seconds, cutting the deficit to 1.  After a Dragic pullup 3, the Rockets forced a turnover, trapping the ballhandler, leading to a Parsons steal and layup.  Then came maybe the most crucial sequence of the game.

Down 1 with 17 seconds remaining, the Rockets had to foul.  But Goran Dragic had 5 fouls.  Off a pick, Chandler Parsons switched off of Danny Granger, leaving Dragic alone with the star small forward.  Dragic waited for a bit and then eventually fouled, apparently deciding he could not allow more time to come off the clock.

Granger hit both free throws, putting the Pacers up 3.  Chandler Parsons scored a driving layup to cut it to 1.  Collison missed another free throw.

Down just 2, Chandler Parsons was fouled on a drive by Granger and then missed a step back ‘3’ that would have won it.

Thoughts:

The mix-up with Dragic was the talk of the game afterwards.  Why was he in the game?  Why did they switch?  Did the rest of the team know Dragic had 5?

I understand the rationale for leaving Dragic in the game.  He’s good at applying pressure and if you somehow came up with the steal, you’d want him on the court for the fastbreak opportunity.  But no one could figure out why they switched.

It seemed from the video [above] that the other players weren’t made aware of the Dragic foul situation.  Had they been, they surely would not have allowed for Dragic to be alone with Granger.  There should not have been a switch.

• From the final possession, you saw how badly they needed Dragic.  Parsons is great at slashing off the kickout, but an isolation creator he is not.
• It was interesting that twice, late in this game, while down 3, the Rockets elected to  go for the quick 2 and foul rather than take the 3.  Both times it worked out for them.  I feel that teams, or at least the Rockets, have a ridiculous conversion rate in these situations.  Morey and company probably advise in favor of this approach due to the odds: with the defense geared against a 3, the probability of scoring a quick 2 is probably at its very highest.  Many times, the defense concedes the hoop.  Combine this with the probability of a missed free throw and those figures probably come out better than the chances of making a contested ‘3’.  If you have enough time and don’t have a wide open 3, I think it’s best to take the route the Rockets took.
• Another interesting note: the stat geek community preaches that there is a greater probability of scoring on a final possession by running a set team play rather than through running an ‘isolation’ play.  That’s why I find it so interesting that the team ISOed Parsons on that final play.  The mentality is absolutely fascinating.  It’s almost like teams think, “we have to do an ISO now.”  I wonder why this is.  Is it because more passes increase the likelihood of a turnover?  In any event, with 14 seconds left–an absolute eternity–I would have run a set play for Scola in the post, in that situation.

• Speaking of starting, Camby already has four boards and two blocked shots with time remaining in the first.  I don’t see him giving up the starting spot…which leads me to wonder how Dalembert’s psyche will be affected.  We all know about his track record in the past to allegedly loaf through parts of entire seasons.
• 2:05 remaining and George Hill checks in actually wearing an undershirt beneath his jersey.  This is one of those things which has no chance of catching on.
• Leandro Barbosa seemed a lot faster when he was a Sun.
• Is it weird that upon seeing a kid a few rows in front of me wearing an Aaron Brooks jersey, my first thought was, “Marshon Brooks never played for the Rockets…?”
• 1:14 remaining in the first and Marcus Morris checks in.  Morris, on his first offensive possession, grabs an offensive board and dishes to Budinger for the lay-in.  As I said previously, rebounding will need to be his focus if he wants to earn minutes on this team.

end of first quarter

• Dalembert checks and goes to work on Hansborough, throwing up a patented airball hook.
• Re: George Hill.  Remember when people thought his emergence would make Tony Parker expendable?  Actually, remember when people thought Darren Collison’s emergence would make Chris Paul expendable?  Both guys now play point guard for the Pacers and neither guy made his previous teammate expendable.  (Collison was dealt before Paul.)
• 6:32 remaining in the second: David West checks back in and I actually agree with those who felt he worked better with Chris Paul than Blake Griffin does.
• Dalembert with 5 boards already in the quarter.
• Timeout, 5:51 remaining in the half.  After watching the Heat and Thunder respectively this morning, I realize more that the Rockets are actually basically a really great college team.  Those teams revolve around one or two central hubs on offense.  The Rockets, when they’re clicking, come at you in 5-man waves of motion, side screen & rolls and misdirection.  I’m not saying one makeup is superior to the other, but the difference is striking.  We’ve already been watching March Madness for the past two years.
• 4:59 remaining in the 2nd, Roy Hibbert with just five points is denied position once more by Dalembert.  I’d feel extremely weary about paying this guy the $10mill-$15mill/annually which he will likely command.  In all honesty, I’d be content to roll with Dalembert, Camby, and Motiejunas at the position for the next few years.  You’d obviously need some sort of upgrade at one of the other spots, but I’d be fine with that center combo.
• The Rockets are shooting just 33% from the floor as I write this.  They should have saved some of that shooting from the other night.
• 2:47 remaining in the half as Courtney Lee hits a game-tying triple.  It’s never been this stylish to have a hitch on your shot.
• The Rockets are a really interesting Motley crew of players ranging in age and abilities.  You basically have youth all along the perimeter and then veteran experience up front.  Patterson, the only ‘young’ frontcourt regular basically plays like a veteran with his IQ.
• After 24 minutes of play, the Pacers lead by two.  A Dalembert dunk a few plays earlier had tied it.  He’s definitely come out with intensity tonight, despite the benching.  The question is whether he will sustain this after the initial anger/motivation wears off.

I asked Tony Allen if he had a minute as I wanted to ask him about Goran Dragic.  He said he was done for the day.  As it took enough courage to approach him altogether, I didn’t insist.