Rick Adelman, Rockets: Everyone’s contract is up in Houston, including Adelman’s. There’s no doubt he’s one of the game’s finest coaches. But with Yao Ming’s future up in the air, it could be time for Adelman to move on. When Portland gave Nate McMillan an extension last month, it opened the door for the Rockets to do the same with Adelman. But sources say communication and trust aren’t great between Adelman and owner Leslie Alexander, who may conclude that it’s time for a different direction. Then there is the uncertain future of GM Daryl Morey, whose contract also is up and whose status was described by one industry source as “questionable.”

As for the Rockets, nothing much seems to be going on. Except for this momentous late season run encapsulated perfectly by GM Daryl Morey via Twitter via Rahat:

since 2/24 we have been 11-4 w/the best offense & 11th best defense (5th off/23rd def prior to 2/24)

This was no more evident than during the Boston Beatdown a couple Fridays ago at the Toyota Center, which I had the pleasure of watching in person next to my friend Kevin.

Kevin is from Brownsville. Kevin is an Astros and Cowboys fan as is natural for a Texan with professional sporting interest raised in a town outside of the 35-45-10 Triangle (a triangle with only 90 degrees! high school math jokes are the best).

However, for some asinine reason (bloodlines – his father is from Beantown), Kevin is a die hard Celtics fan. Case in point, to the Toyota Center he attired himself in his father’s original 1986 Celtics’ NBA Championship hat (which was won over what should have been the beginning of the Rockets’ Twin Tower dynasty) and early 1990′s design Celtics Polo – probably picked from the page adjacent to the Umbro page in the Jock Jams clothiers catalog.

Normally, I would have been more than mildly upset that I paid money to watch a supposed title contender (the Celtics) quit on the game as soon as the lead approached double digits. Given my friend’s obnoxious display of contrarian partisanship, I took extra relish in the 16 point drubbing.

The body language of the Celtics was especially pleasing: utterly hopeless. The lack of any fire or fight was encapsulated succinctly by Kevin: “They just gave up.” And they did.

Paul Pierce stopped taking the ball to the rim in the 2nd quarter, and eventually stopped looking at the basket entirely while shooting 20 foot fade-aways. Kevin Garnett did some barking but Chuck Hayes read his moves with the ease of a Bernstein Bears coloring book. Troy Murphy played like Brad Lohaus in the original NBA Jam, only everyone else was playing in NBA 2K11 on XBox 360.  Glen Davis was the only player in green to seem to care, but he got tossed into the crowd by Chuck Hayes for his effort.

Its needless to go on any further about why the Celtics appear to cooked, because trading Kendrick Perkins was akin to bathing in butter:

Jerry: Kramer!

Kramer: Oh, man. I think I cooked myself.

Jerry: Look at your skin.

Kramer: Stick a fork in me, Jerry. I’m done.

Courtesy of NBA.com, here is a list of the transactions in the month of March:

Monday, March 28
• Charlotte signed guard Garrett Temple for the remainder of the season.

Sunday, March 27
• Washington signed guard/forward Othyus Jeffers to a 10-day contract.

Saturday, March 26
• New Orleans signed forward Patrick Ewing Jr. to a 10-day contract.

Friday, March 25
• San Antonio signed forward De’Sean Butler and placed him on the inactive list.

Wednesday, March 23
• Houston signed forward Mike Harris to a 10-day contract.
• New Jersey recalled guard Ben Uzoh from Springfield (NBA D-League).

Monday, March 21
• Houston assigned center Hasheem Thabeet to Rio Grande Valley (NBA D-League).

Sunday, March 20
• Chicago signed guard John Lucas III and guard Jannero Pargo

Saturday, March 19
• Sacramento waived guard Luther Head

Thursday, March 17
• Charlotte signed guard Garrett Temple to a second 10-day contract.
• Golden State reassigned guard Jeremy Lin to Reno (NBA D-League).
• New Jersey named Andrew Schwartz vice president of partnership sales. Promoted Josh Pruss to vice president of partnership marketing.
• Washington signed guard-forward Othyus Jeffers to a 10-day contract.

Wednesday, March 16
• San Antonio signed guard/forward Danny Green.

Tuesday, March 15
• New Jersey assigned guard Ben Uzoh to Springfield (NBA D-League). Named Dan Lefton executive director of ticket sales.

Monday, March 14
• Portland signed center Chris Johnson for the rest of the season.

Wednesday, March 9
• Denver signed guard Jerel McNeal to a 10-day contract.
• Toronto assigned center Solomon Alabi to Erie (NBA D-League).

Tuesday, March 8
• Denver signed coach George Karl to a three-year contract extension.
• Portland agreed to terms with coach Nate McMillan on a two-year contract extension.

Monday, March 7
• Charlotte signed guard Garrett Temple to 10-day contract.

Saturday, March 5
• Memphis signed forward Leon Powe.

Written by Connor Winn, ‘Cap Backwards’ is a discussion column on the NBA’s salary cap and its many intricacies.

This is my favorite time of year. Don’t get me wrong, I love the (NBA Playoffs and NFL and NCAA football). I mean they rev my engines, but they don’t belong in the newsroom!

March is awesome. Let me tell you why:

-Golf season, which admittedly is year round in Houston, pretty much officially begins for me the first Monday after the Sunday of Daylight Savings. Arbitrary as it may seem, it is the day I can put in a full day at the office and still play 18 holes before sundown, if everything goes smoothly (no traffic getting to the course, good pace on the course, no searching for lost balls, no searching for thrown clubs, etc.).

-St. Patrick’s Day Weekend in Dallas is the best weekend Dallas has to offer. You’re probably thinking that the Red River Shootout deserves some consideration if not an outright declaration of its supremacy. Go ahead and continue thinking that; enjoy your crowds of out of towners and relish in your inability to get into bars or get anywhere in the city in a reasonable amount of time. I’ll stick to the weekend that Greenville becomes Bourbon St. and every house around the M Streets is having a party that spills into the parties right next to it.

-St. Calzone’s Day (my Italian friends in college made up a retaliatory holiday to St Patty’s to celebrate their heritage – not knowing that niche had been filled by March 19′s St. Joseph’s Day) is on its 8th annual celebration and acts as an informal college reunion because after college you don’t have enough day parties in your life.

-Men’s college basketball conference tournaments. Outside of those risque lingerie shops, you cannot find a better warm-up and lead-in to something so great as March Madness. Teams with no chances are given hope and every underdog is fighting for its post season life.

-Which leads us to March Madness itself. You don’t even have to have your own team in the fray to get wrapped up in the excitement of the first weekend of Madness. Buzzer beaters, upsets, heroes – nothing matches the first round (not acknowledging the play in games as the first round).

This year’s Tournament is a new experience for some personal and public reasons. For all of us, four stations, rather than just CBS, broadcasting the games takes some adjusting. I personally loved having Greg Gumble and Jim Nance sherpanavigate  me through simultaneous games. Yes, we could miss some moments, but the work was done for us. On the other hand, with the staggered games, every ending is theoretically in play to be seen live. And with the internet, channels and times and scores are easy to find and monitor.

Now, my own experience this year has,regretfully, lost some integrity. Undermined by a good deal, I put aside my rule of “one tournament : one bracket : same bracket for every pool” and bought the right to play 3 brackets for the price of $10 rather than $5 for 1. Does this make me less of a man? Absolutely, and I want to apologize to myself for giving up the “moral” high ground that is granted by one bracket status.

This year, I will have no one to scoff at but myself as I flip through my brackets checking and crossing and highlighting much longer than necessary. With hedges in play, most games’ outcomes are mitigated by the choices (betrayals) on another of my brackets.

Eventually, I will succumb to the inevitable confusion that flows from having picked both teams to win a game. Cheering against one and for another is an unbridgeable abyss of self-division, and a Connor divided against himself cannot stand!

I may not be able to regain the moral ground I surrendered in filling out 3 brackets, but I can regain my sanity. I am tearing up all but my first bracket, an act lessened in significance by their electronic form being stored on a website, and lessened further because I will happily reap any rewards they bring.

Written by Connor Winn, ‘Cap Backwards’ is a discussion column on the NBA’s salary cap and its many intricacies.

But onto more interesting stuff…like unions and budgets.The NBA, led by its commissioner, David Stern, and the NBA Player’s Association, led by its executive director, Billy Hunter, are in the midst of ‘negotiating’ a new collective bargaining agreement to bridge the gap between owner demands and player interests.

‘Negotiating’ deserves the written equivalent of sarcastic, even cynical, quotes in this case because talks between the two sides are summed up best by Jennifer Coolidge’s character in Best in Show – “We could not talk or talk forever and still find things to not talk about.”

The current CBA expires June 30, 2011. The last exchange of proposals between the two sides – February 2010. That’s a whole lot of not talking. During last month’s All Star break, however, “progress” (double the sarcasm) was made.

Stern: “There’s no disagreement about the numbers.”

Hunter responded in a statement: “There has been ongoing debate and disagreement regarding the numbers.”

Stern: “There’s disagreement about the component of the numbers and whether they should be included.”

So, I guess that answers that? Obviously, there are numbers involving  components. I think we can agree that there is some sort of ambiguous agreement or disagreement going on with those.

Luckily, Derek Fisher, president of the Player’s Association, shed a bit more light earlier this week in an interview with the LA Times. Although, both sides had agreed to keep negotiations out of the press, Fisher circumvented that to an extent in what could be a masterful public relations move.

Fisher publicly embraced a willingness to sacrifice player salaries for the good of the game and the public: “Almost all players would understand if owners…asked for a 2% salary cut in exchange for lower ticket prices.”

Fisher has essentially co-opted one of the public’s largest grievances with the NBA, exorbitant ticket prices, into the player’s side of the negotiations. The NBAPA is now arguing on behalf of not only the players, but the public as well, through its willingness to sacrifice for the fans.

Forbes’ ranking of 2011 Team Values lists 17 teams with negative operating income. This is one of the many reasons Stern wants to reduce player salaries by 35% and institute a hard salary cap like the NFL employs. (“Probably one of the biggest impediments for getting a deal has been their demands for a hard salary cap, and we’ve indicated that we just don’t see any way possible for us to accept that,” Hunter said).

Fisher counters that owners are in control of whom they choose to pay and how much – “There isn’t anything in the collective bargaining agreement that says you have to pay all these guys this much money.”

Stern may be correct in asserting player salaries are unsustainable – “we have a model in place that was put in at an earlier time when the costs that were producing the revenue weren’t as high as they are now.” They may be too large a piece of the pie, but the public is the one serving the pie, and without remuneration, the public will not readily welcome back greedy owners and players fighting over the largest bite of the public’s spent money. Fisher has alleviated, to an extent, the public’s grievance with the players. And with sports team owners being painted into a corner like this, the forthcoming NBA PR war may have just had its Lexington and Concord moment.

Written by Connor Winn, ‘Cap Backwards’ is a discussion column on the NBA’s salary cap and its many intricacies.

I’m not saying that I am moving on, because I am certainly too much of a second guesser to do that. But dealing with reality is probably in order to at least bring the current state of the Rockets to light.

Which is why Red94 has published a Rockets salary page. It lists the salary, to the best of my knowledge and research, of each active player on the Rockets and distinguishes between Team Options, Player Options, and Qualifying Offers via a complex color coding system of Blue, Red and Green.

Additionally, I have listed the estimated Cap Holds each player will count toward Houston’s salary cap the summer their contract expires. This amount will let you know that, even though the player is not under contract, the cap hold is applied to the team’s salary cap until that player signs a new contract.

I used data and figures from all over the place but especially from www.shamsports.com and www.hoopsworld.com. I hope you enjoy (which would be best accomplished by glazing over the $16,392,183 potentially owed to Hasheem Thabeet).

Remember, the NBA is negotiating with the Player’s Association on a new set of rules that will govern player salaries, soooo…..

Written by Connor Winn, ‘Cap Backwards’ is a discussion column on the NBA’s salary cap and its many intricacies.

I suspect Rockets GM Daryl Morey is expecting us (as fans) to continue waiting.

“It’s not for lack of trying,” Morey said. “I hope people understand that. We’re going to be among the top five teams in the league in flexibility this offseason.”

So we’ve got that going for us, (as people).

If you believe the “not for a lack of trying” defense, you can assume that Houston’s front office burned the phone and email lines between here and all the other teams. Such communications were not made available to me. And short of calling Mr. Morey and pretending to be his billionaire benefactor to get the inside scoop, I was relegated to the internet for my rumor mongering. Differentiating between credible reports and rumors of the high school girls’ variety can be tough and far less entertaining than believing everything you read.

So, was I happy when the www.dailypuppy.com reported that the Rockets were in the preliminary stages of forcibly packing Aaron Brooks’ suitcase in exchange for a Pomeranian and a twelve pack of Purina? No, but I was less thrilled when I read Brooks was headed to Phoenix in return for Goran Dragic and a first round pick. The latter signified the gross overestimation of Brooks’ trade value that I, and the rest of Rockets’ fans, was guilty of calculating. (Brooks demeanor and horrid shooting this season were, admittedly, largely dismissed from that calculation.)

With Brooks’ cheap, expiring contract combined with his previous season’s Most Improved Player performance, I figured he was just a notch or two below the likes of Devin Harris in value. Both are small, Brooks is smaller. Both can score, Brooks is the better shooter. I suppose that is the type of self-interested figuring that lands people in prison.

Now that I have established my limited ability to gauge value, please do not hesitate to sell me that Rolex you picked up in Istanbul last year, and also, understand my frustration at the Rockets’ inability to place themselves in one of the two trades involving players Houston could have benefited by acquiring.

My tally could include: Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams, Kendrick Perkins and Gerald Wallace. But Anthony only wanted to go to the Knicks, and Portland, who acquired Wallace for some bench players and two future first rounders, paid too steep a price for a super-glue guy.

That leaves Deron Williams and Kendrick Perkins. And yet Rockets fans are leaving the party with Goran Dragic and Hasheem Thabeet.

Perkins was traded from Boston with Nate Robinson to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic. Robinson was used to make the salaries exchangeable under the current trading rules. A young, championship pedigreed, defensive stalwart at the center position for a young power forward and a back-up center?

The Celtics wanted Shane Battier. The Rockets clearly were willing to give him away. Jordan Hill or Patrick Patterson, young power forwards, and Battier is worse than Green and Kristic? I feel like the parent at the basketball game who cannot understand why their kid, whom they think is better than Air Bud, is on the bench when he is actually uncoordinated to the point that the coach thinks the kid needs glasses (barely a true story, but only because Air Bud had not yet been produced).

Much like the rest of the unintuitive* population, I concluded that Jerry Sloan was forced to step down as coach of the Utah Jazz so that the Jazz could appease Deron Williams. I reasoned Utah was, therefore, intent on keeping one of the best point guards on their team. Instead, the Jazz traded Williams for last year’s number three overall pick, Derrick Favors, Devin Harris, $3 million, and two first round picks. The people who saw that trade coming are the same people who tell you they were about to invest in Google 15 years ago.

My frustration, while ill conceived in what is probably flawed logic (yup), lies in the idea that the Rockets could have bested that offer. Kevin Martin, Patrick Patterson, Kyle Lowry/Brooks, and draft picks? Is the whole world taking crazy pills? Is that not a better offer than what the Jazz took? So what the heck do I know?

As far as the Rockets are actually concerned, here is what happened:

Before the trades, the Rockets’ total salary for the 2010/11 season was $73,753,370. That is $3,446,370 over the luxury tax threshold, which would require the Rockets to pay a dollar for dollar fine for the overage ($6,892,740).

Aaron Brooks for Goran Dragic and the Suns’ 1^st round draft pick this June, lottery protected.

If that pick is in the top 14, the Rockets instead will receive Orlando’s 2011 1^st round pick that Phoenix acquired in a trade earlier this year. Orlando’s pick will likely be toward the end of the draft given their projected record at the end of the season.

Dragic is making $1,972,000 this season with a team option for $2,108,000 next year.

Brooks is making $2,016,692, or $44,692 more than Dragic, on an expiring contract.

That is $89,384 in luxury tax savings.

Dragic has a team option for $2,108,000 next season.

Brooks would have a cap hold of $2,976,636 this summer which means the Rockets will be effectively $868,636 further under the salary cap (2,976,636 – 2,108,000). Except that this summer’s salary cap will likely be smaller than this season’s and, regardless, it is an unknown number.

Also, the draft pick acquired from Phoenix will have its own associated cap hold (last summer it would have been between $1,443,300 and $850,800, given its position between the 14^th and 30^th pick).

Shane Battier and Ish Smith for Hasheem Thabeet and DeMarre Carroll and Memphis’ 1^st round draft pick in 2013, also lottery protected.

Thabeet and Carroll make a combine $5,878,680 this season.

Battier and Smith make a combined $7,828,104 this season, or $1,949,424 more than the incoming salaries.

That is $3,898,848 in luxury tax savings.

Battier’s contract expires after this season, and Smith’s is not guaranteed. Even if there’s a fire.

Thabeet is owed $5,127,720 next year. Carroll’s contract expires after this season. Assuming the Rockets were not going to renew Smith’s contract and that they will waive Carroll, the Rockets cut $2,226,780 off next season’s payroll.

The Rockets saved a combined $3,988,232 in luxury tax payments – 2*(44,692 + 1,949,424) – and potentially cut some payroll off next season’s team.

*Referring to the imbedded link and its’ underlined text, I am being facetious. Thomsen’s premise that the Jazz are preemptively grabbing what they can by trading Williams before he bolts town is flawed. Thomsen seems to be saying the Jazz basically had to do this trade now or lose Williams for nothing; much like Denver had to trade Carmelo Anthony.

Thomsen says the Jazz could “ready themselves to exploit the next collective bargaining agreement.” He further guesses that “the owners of the mid- and small-market teams like Utah will be more galvanized than ever to create a system that can enable them to retain their best players (a franchise tag).”

The Nuggets traded Carmelo because he could opt out of his contract this summer before the new collective bargaining agreement and its proposed franchise tag and hard salary cap stipulations comes into effect. The Nuggets faced losing Melo for nothing or trading him now. Williams has another year on his contract which expires in 2012 meaning that Utah will still maintain the rights to Williams after the new collective bargaining agreement is negotiated in 2011. Thomsen’s argument that the Jazz were forced to jettison Williams because they would not be able to take advantage of the new CBA and its speculated stipulations ignores the fact that Williams becomes a free agent in 2012 when the new CBA will be in effect.

Written by Connor Winn, ‘Cap Backwards’ is a discussion column on the NBA’s salary cap and its many intricacies.

If actual trades are like pieces of peppercorn bacon cooked to the exact moment of chewy crispiness, then trade rumors are the ubiquitous cubes of tofu somehow ingrained in every department of Whole Foods. Rumors are filling but not satiating; they can pique your curiosity but perpetually leave you wanting more. In the end, a poor substitute.

In their best case, rumors provide a nice escalation toward an eventual crescendo – see Steve Francis for Tracy McGrady. So far, the Rockets have been rumored in the pursuit of everyone from Omar Asik of the Bulls to Carmelo. Neither of which appear to have legs, especially the latter.

A safe assumption will be that the Rockets insert themselves in the middle of a blockbuster, or at least a new release on Netflix, to make ends meet between other parties. The Rockets have the most variable combination of assets available – 1^st round picks (its own and right to swap with Knicks), young talent (Patterson, Hill, Budinger, Brooks), expiring contracts (Battier/Jeffries), and contracts covered by insurance (Yao).

With nothing really to report beyond conjecture, I highly recommend reading Larry Coon’s piece on ESPN earlier this week. He underscores the futility of trying to project the salary cap ramifications of today’s moves within the unknown parameters of the future Collective Bargaining Agreement (or CBA – which essentially governs how much teams are allowed to spend on player salaries).

Written by Connor Winn, ‘Cap Backwards’ is a discussion column on the NBA’s salary cap and its many intricacies.

The signing of Brad Miller to a three year contract? Obviously Miller is a solid piece, but at 34 he contributes in much the same way Dikembe Mutombo did a few seasons back. Miller is meant to provide quality minutes off the bench and solidify a front court rotation. By no means was he to start. Because he has, it is logical to infer that the Rockets had faith in a resurgence of Yao Ming. He must have been signed for that purpose (as it happened before Yao went down), but Miller now only serves to block the development of Jordan Hill and Patrick Patterson.

The trade of Trevor Ariza for Courtney Lee? This move is the most obvious. Besides moving much closer to the luxury tax threshold, it was a dump of what is becoming an onerous contract for a cheaper substitute who better fit the mold of what the Rockets want in their players: an understanding of personal limitations and knowledge of roles within the team.

The trade for Terrence Williams? … This one kills me. The Rockets only surrendered a draft pick (no salary cap value until after the draft pick has been made), which means they were willing to increase their luxury tax payments to get him. This kid must not show any comprehension of Coach Rick Adelman’s schemes, especially on the defensive end, to merit so little playing time. Just before arriving in Houston, Williams had averaged a triple double over three games in the D-League. Obviously, he is overqualified for that assignment, but the major leagues are over his head. The Rockets either view him as a talent another team will risk developing and can be used to sweeten a trade package. Or they are going to have to roll up their sleeves and do it themselves. Hopefully, this trade deadline will make clear that decision for the fans.

By playing veterans Chuck Hayes, Shane Battier, Miller, et al., Adelman is giving his team the best chance to win (now). He is foregoing the option of giving meaningful playing time to Patterson, Hill, and Chase Budinger so that they will be ready to contribute in subsequent seasons. This is a defensible position. Winning is what the team is supposed to do and accomplishing it provides greater job security. Beyond that, making the playoffs is financially beneficial to everyone from the players to the owner.

From a fan’s perspective the scenario is tough to judge conclusively. We pay to see the best product the team can field (court?). And we pay a lot. Our escape from life’s obligations is best spent where we get the most return on our investment. We will grant reprieve to a failed season here and there, but we need the tools to properly assess what constitutes failure. Our loyalty can only extend as far as our trust.

I am hypercritical of leadership in any capacity: my company’s, my friends’, my family’s, and yes, my sporting interests’. It is because I want all to succeed, and I obviously have opinions governing the definition of success and how it can be accomplished. This is no more so true than in the political arena – where I actually get to help choose the leaders.

Because I agonize over choices on the ballot, I once asked my grandmother, a very highly educated doctor lady, how she made decisions that so often seemed a choice of the lesser evil. She said when she could not decide for whom to cast her vote, rather than abstain, she always votes for who she thinks is the most intelligent candidate. Worst case: they may be corrupt but at least they know the stakes. Best case: they agonize over the decisions like she would.

While the City of Houston may not have voted for the Rockets’ front office, I trust, for the time being, decisions are being made with careful consideration adhering to a plan, malleable it may be. My only thought, however obsequious, is that the Rockets are patiently maintaining the flexibility needed to take the first step toward such purpose as the front office has internally defined. The moves we have seen heretofore are not meant to head in any specific direction, but rather, to prevent the team from being boxed out of an opportunity in the future.

Written by Connor Winn, ‘Cap Backwards’ is a discussion column on the NBA’s salary cap and its many intricacies.

As has been well chronicled, Houston Rockets’ GM, Daryll Morey, has been stockpiling liquid assets for some time. Morey is a believer in the RC Buford, superstar team mold: 3 stars, with at least one superstar, integrated with complimentary specialists. With the loss of Yao Ming, and perhaps, regardless of, the Rockets are, at best, two wise men short of the outfit headed to Bethlehem. In need of a generational talent and a dude with frankincense to augment Kevin Martin, Morey is at least, as you will see, following the right star.

Morey’s accumulation of talent resembles the equity, or stock, side of an aggressively managed fund. He is heaviest on the assets having shown glimpses of tantalizing potential and that are easiest to move. Below, I have broken down the Rockets’ roster into two groups with the first being those positions most difficult to unwind. Juxtaposed to the second group of high liquidity assets, one cannot help but deduce that Morey is a bull waiting to charge.

Player, Age – Average salary over life of contract – Contract years remaining after this season – 2010/11 PER

HOUSTON ROOTS

Luis Scola, 30 – $9 million – 3 (base year compensation) – 18.65

Kyle Lowry, 24 – $5.75 million – 2 – 15.42

Brad Miller, 34 – $4.58 – 1 (2^nd is unguaranteed) – 17.43

READY TO MOVE

Patrick Patterson, 21 – $2.25 – 3 (rookie contract options) – 16.60

Kevin Martin, 27 – $11.5 – 2 – 22.54

Jordan Hill, 23 – $3 – 2 (rookie contract options) – 11.60

Terrence Williams, 23 – $2.58 – 2 (rookie contract options) – 14.64

Courtney Lee, 25 – $1.79 – 1 (rookie contract option) – 11.58

Chase Budinger, 22 – $0.87 – 2 (unguaranteed) – 14.78

Ishmael Smith, 22 – $0.63 – 1 (unguaranteed) – 9.23

Aaron Brooks, 26 – $2 – expiring (restricted) – 14.52

Yao Ming, 30 – $17.69 million – expiring – N/A

Shane Battier, 32 – $7.35 – expiring – 13.15

Jared Jeffries, 29 – $6.88 – expiring – 9.45

Chuck Hayes, 27 – $1.97 – expiring – 15.81

Not exactly a balanced portfolio, eh? Safe to conclude Morey is more eager to barter than ‘that guy’ in your fantasy league? Too many rhetorical questions?

Given that the Rockets are maxed out on the role players side of the Buford equation, Morey is clearly reaching for the stars. Sacramento is, therefore, not an ideal bilateral option for Houston as the Kings’ lone star, the supremely talented Tyreke Evans, is only being moved if David Stern agrees to replay the 2002 Western Conference Finals with referees from Switzerland, not the original ones from Compton.

Demarcus Cousins is intriguing but also seemingly unmovable but for political reasons (Kevin Johnson is convinced the stuff between Cousins’ ears singlehandedly draws federal education expenditures to the city of Sacramento like a pork barrel magnet). Multilateral negotiations would be far more interesting. And far more complex. And my thesaurus is running out of big words for ‘lots of’. So the focus will be on trades of mutual benefit between the two teams.

With the lack of available stars in Sacramento and the general depth of Houston’s bench, there is not a whole lot with which to build a change-my-underwear inspiring trade. As luck would have it, the Rockets and Kings each have some depth at a position the other could use an upgrade.

Aaron Brooks would seemingly be a fairly good fit next to Tyreke Evans. Brooks is a great shooter and scorer with capable passing skills. He could space the floor for Evans to drive and shoulder some of the offensive burden keeping Evans fresh. The Kings would acquire Brooks’ Bird Rights and the right of first refusal for his upcoming restricted free agency. At the least, Brooks is a dynamic threat off the bench who has averaged 20 and 5 in the past.

The Rockets’ only true center is the 34 year old Brad Miller. Chuck Hayes does an admirable job but does not cut the mustard as a starting pivot on a deep playoff team. Patterson and Hill are each better suited at the 4, as is Scola.

Sacramento’s Jason Thompson can be ruled out for the simple fact that he replicates what the Rockets already have in Hill and Patterson. He also lacks the propensity for taking charges that is a hallmark trait of Morey players. He also is not a great rebounder nor a good shot blocker. Basically, absent from Thompson are all the traits the Rockets need in a center.

Samuel Dalembert, on the contrary, is closer to filling a need – as a shot blocker capable of coming from the weak side to cover the mistakes of an otherwise porous defense. Additionally, he rebounds at an above average rate. He also comes with an expiring contract of $13.4 million which would not detract from the Rockets’ emphasis on flexibility.

To acquire Dalembert, who by the way is a statistically inferior defender to Chuck Hayes in points allowed per play 0.74 to 0.88, the Rockets could recompense the Kings the expiring contracts necessary to maintain Sacramento’s goal of being massively under any projected cap. Jeffries’ expiring $6.88 million and/or Battier’s expiring $7.35 million are a good starting point. But a “Brooks and expiring contracts for Dalembert swap” alone is not nearly enough impetus for a trade between the two teams.

Because the Kings are $13.5 million under the salary cap, Sacramento is able to absorb that much more salary in a trade than they divest. This makes the Kings a potent facilitator in multi-team trades, but does it add value in the eyes of the Rockets?

With Houston barely contending for the 8^th seed, it is presumably safe to rule them out of NBA Finals contention this summer. As such, it would be understandable for Rockets’ owner, Les Alexander, to cut some fat off the team’s $3.4 million luxury tax overage. Any amount excised would effectively save the team double because of the dollar-for-dollar penalty associated with the tax. In that context, an expiring contract like Jared Jeffries and a conditional draft pick for little used Antoine Wright would make sense. In such a scenario, the Rockets could potentially move under the tax threshold and save a combined $8.6 million in salary obligations and luxury tax fines.

Additionally, if the Rockets are on the verge of losing some of their assets this summer to free agency, it would make sense to trade them now and save on the luxury tax bill. For example, if Aaron Brooks does not fit into the Rockets’ future plans, it does not make sense to retain him heading into his free agency this summer when another team will sign him and leaving the Rockets with nothing. That would waste any value he has to the team now. If the decision to cut ties with Brooks is made, it would make sense to use his value now, in a trade to someone like Sacramento, to dump salary and avoid luxury tax fees. The Rockets could combine Brooks in a trade like the cost cutting one above for Wright, saving the Rockets a combined $16 million in salary and fees.

Unfortunately for this exercise, the Rockets are seemingly poised to pay a luxury tax in order to retain and accumulate talent. This was made evident in December when Morey and Company traded a conditional 1^st round pick for Terrence Williams. Williams cannot be part of any trade, except for a one-for-one swap, until this summer. Considering the cost of adding Williams is double his salary because of its addition to the luxury tax, the Rockets appear ready to pay the tax in order to increase their chances at landing a superstar sometime down the road.

The Rockets, however, are cognizant of the state of limbo toward which this strategy may lead. Neither good enough to compete nor bad enough to win the lottery, the team’s popularity and value will decline in the mire of mediocrity. The Kings, while not possessive of a star for Houston, can deliver the hope necessary to stave of irrelevance – a 15% chance at winning this summer’s draft lottery.

Most teams would be loath to give up a chance that high at attaining the talent that comes with a top 3 pick. Even with a draft pool like the one upcoming, which lacks any “sure thing” pick, teams do not want to give away the sense of hope that keeps a fan base curiously engaged. But maybe that lack of promising potential can be effectively contrasted against enough of Houston’s young talent and expiring deals to assuage such hesitancy. This is highly unlikely. The potential for pairing Duke’s Kyrie Irving with Tyreke Evans, in what would become one of the most intriguing NBA backcourts, gets the Maloofs’ blood pumping about as much as the thought of Justin Bieber signing a 10 year performance deal at their Palms casino in Vegas.

For argument’s sake, however, a combination of the expiring deals of Yao Ming and Shane Battier with the potential of Brooks, Hill/Patterson, and Budinger for the Kings 2011 1^st round pick, Dalembert, and the vaguely onerous contract of Francisco Garcia does work. Sacramento would be adding $30.5 million this year and none of it would be guaranteed next season. Budinger and Hill could be retained for $0.884 and $2.8 million, respectively. Combined with the cut of Garcia, the Kings would only add an additional $0.917 to next year’s bottom line (and that includes the qualifying offer to Brooks necessary to maintain the aforementioned right of first refusal).

These scenarios are interesting in their strategic impact, though devoid of the sex appeal of the big names average fans crave. In the end, the Rockets and Kings are imperfect trade partners by themselves. Each team, though especially Sacramento, has positioned itself to facilitate trades between other teams, allowing them to take a little off the top for themselves. Teams such as Indiana, Charlotte or New Orleans with costs to cut and major assets in play would be prudent in keeping the Kings and Rockets in mind.

This would have enabled the team to add a player within the $5.875 million exception. It expires today, and, according to chron.com’s Jonathan Feigen, it appears it will go unused.

This is of little impact to the team, as the traded player exception created by the Trevor Ariza trade last summer is larger, $6.33 million, and does not expire until August 11.

Additionaly, Houston has three other exceptions from various trades:

Joey Dorsey – $881,000

Carl Landry -$1,647,360

Jermaine Taylor – $780,871

It is important to note that these exceptions cannot be combined nor used in conjunction with another player from the Rockets to acquire a contract of greater value. They can only be used on a singular basis.

The whole thing took me back to 9^th grade. I had snuck into a rated R movie with my friends. It was going to be a raunchy good time, laughing hysterically at Ben Stiller zip his bits in his fly, Cameron Diaz put gel in her hair, and Matt Dillon play football with handicapped kids. Of course, that dream ended abruptly when the bright lights of the opening credits illuminated the unmistakable thinning, white perm of my grandmother, sitting two rows up. Gone was the promise of a great spectacle, replaced by the torture of trying not to laugh. A should have been great experience relegated to the disappointing category of the ‘almost but not quite’ – which would go on to happen a lot more in college, albeit, in a different capacity.*

Of course, in this present scenario, I am not the one that had to hide for fear of being seen. I believe that distinction was beholden to Nets general manager, Billy King, as he surely attempted to avoid having to tell to his Russian employer, Net’s owner, Mikhail Prokhorov, why he failed so miserably.

The piece of the Carmelo puzzle that is cause for the most consternation for King and other GM’s is his contract and its conjoining effect with the Collective Bargaining negotiations. That consternation has obviously been the root of all the Carmelo trade constipation. (Sorry, that was too tempting.)

Though Carmelo could be a free agent this coming summer, his contract, one must remember, is not expiring after this season. Melo has an Early Termination Option allowing him to decide when he becomes a free agent, this summer or the next. If he opts out this summer, he forfeits the $18,518,574 he could earn by sticking with the contract until it expires in the summer of 2012.

Remember that $18 million. According to Mike Ozanian at Forbes: (David Stern) wants to lop $750 million off of player costs, lowering the portion of basketball-related revenue that goes to players from 57% to around 40%.

Knocking $25 million of player expenditures per team (750 / 30 teams) does not seem too likely. But as a starting point for the Stern side of the negotiations, it certainly means the salary cap will be shrinking. If it did happen and Carmelo chooses to opt out, he would have a hard time making up the $18 million he left on his contract, much less the $65 million dollar extension he has refused to sign.

If the salary cap dips from its current figure into the $40’s million, Carmelo stands to lose a lot. From a fiscal perspective, this would seem to indicate that Carmelo would at least hold onto his contract for one more year.**

* Even though she never saw me, looking back, I am sure it was much worse for her. Thinking she was in for a heartwarming rom-com, Booty (I couldn’t say her name, Ruth, as a baby, much less the Ruthy for which she initially pined) instead was subjected to the prime of the Farrelly Brothers.

** (tongue firmly planted in cheek) My interpretation is framed in much the same scenario of that of Ingrid Bergman’s character, Ilsa Lund, in Casablanca. I am going to traverse the limb and assume I am not spoiling a great movie, but in perhaps the most iconic scene in cinema history, Lund stands before an awaiting propeller plane with a choice between two lives:

True love and less wealth (though still enough to scrape by) represented by Humphrey Bogart’s Rick Blaine VS the financial security offered by Paul Henreid’s boring and stiff Victor Laszlo.

Does Carmelo follow the tugs on his heart being pulled by his wife, LaLa Vazquez and her career aspirations? In which case, Carmelo opts out of the last year of his contract and heads to New York, the money be danged.

Or does he accept that perhaps his greatest chance at assured financial security lies on a less glamorous but more steadfast path? In which case, a team like your Houston Rockets acquires him for at least a season.

“If that plane leaves the ground and you’re not with him, you’ll regret it. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow, but soon and for the rest of your life.”

As the NBA heads into the heart of its in-season, trading season, a couple of items need be remembered to ensure those trades in your head are valid:

1)      The NBA Trade Deadline is the 16^th Thursday of the season, which falls on February 24, 2011, this year.

2)      Teams cannot trade a player recently acquired via a separate trade for two months after the acquiring trade date.

a.       So Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, and Gilbert Arenas, acquired on December 18^th, cannot be traded until February 18, 2011.

3)       Unless, of course, that player is traded by himself, i.e. a trade not including another player from his team.

a.       So when the Hornets traded Jerryd Bayless only a month after acquiring him from Portland, it was actually two trades.

b.      Hornets acquired Jarret Jack, Marcus Banks, and David Andersen from the Raptors for Bayless and Peja Stojakovic.

c.       Bayless was traded by himself for Andersen.

d.      Peja was traded for Jack and Banks.

e.      NBA teams are tricky.

4)      A team cannot reacquire a player it traded in the same season, unless that player was waived. Remember Zydrunas Ilgauskas being traded to the Wizards last year, only to resign with the Cavs later that season?

5)      For teams over the salary cap, the incoming players’ combined salaries cannot exceed 125% plus $100,000 of the combined outgoing salaries.

6)      In a trade teams can include “cash considerations” up to $3,000,000 and draft picks.

7)      When “cash considerations” are part of a trade, it is not included in the matching of salaries exchanged between teams. Draft picks are likewise counted as $0.

8)      Base Year Compensation players, like Luis Scola, are hard to trade. So Luis Scola will be paid $7,775,378 but he would only count as 50% of that, or $3,887,689, in an exchange of salaries. This theoretically prevents the Rockets from getting equal value in trading him.

9)      There are three types of exceptions for NBA Trades: Minimum Salary, Disabled Player, and Traded Player.

10)  The Minimum Salary exception allows teams over the salary cap to acquire (sign or trade for) players making the minimum salary. I would go into further detail, but I hate typing the word minimum.

11)   The Disabled Player exception allows teams to acquire a replacement player for an injured player.

a.       The Rockets applied for such an exception when Yao went down.

b.      So did the Mavericks when Caron Butler went down. Rejection!

12)  Traded Player Exceptions can only be used in trades and are created when a team trades away only one player whose salary is greater than that of the incoming salaries. The exception amount is equal to that difference.

a.       Example – The Rockets traded David Andersen on July 28, 2010 and received a 2^nd round draft pick. The Rockets also created a $2,500,000 trade exception, Andersen’s salary, for themselves.

b.      So when the Rockets traded Trevor Ariza ($6,322,320 salary) as part of the deal that brought Courtney Lee to town this past summer and received a $6,322,320 trade exception, a conclusion can be drawn.

c.       The exception matches Arixa’s salary exactly.

d.      Conclusion being that the acquisition of Courtney Lee ($1,352,640 salary) in that transaction was actually a separate trade as he was acquired using a previous trade exception.

13)  The Rockets have four Traded Player Exceptions: Ariza – $6,322,320, Carl Landry – $1,647,360, Joey Dorsey – $881,000, and Jermaine Taylor – $780,871.

a.       These exceptions cannot be used in conjunction to acquire a player with a $10,000,000 salary.

b.      The exceptions must be traded alone, such as the manner in which they were created. They cannot be combined with another player’s salary to acquire a player with a larger salary. (Can’t add the Ariza $6.3 million to Shane Battier’s $7.3 million contract to acquire Steve Nash and his $10 million salary)

c.       The Rockets can use only part of an exception and keep the remainder for a later trade.

d.      The Rockets can combine a draft pick with an exception to essentially acquire a player without giving one up.

e.       The exceptions expire a year after their creation. So Ariza’s expires on August 11, 2011.

14)  A player who was a restricted free agent the summer before, umm Kyle Lowy, whose team used the right of first refusal to sign, cough Houston Rockets, cannot be traded for one year without his consent.

a.       In Lowry’s case, the Celtics made an offer which the Rockets matched. So the Rockets cannot trade him this season without his approval.

There’s more, but I need to go read some back issues of Berkshire Hathaway’s Annual Reports to clear my mind (actual quote from 2008 Annual: “By year end, investors of all stripes were bloodied and confused, much as if they were small birds who had strayed into a badminton game.”)

Sure enough, two weeks ago they were.

Now, not so much. The Heat rank 23^rd in the NBA in John Hollinger’s Pace Factor – the number of possessions a team uses per game.

Sure, Miami is trying to play with defensive mindset. But they haven’t forgotten how to score in transition. They can seemingly blow open a lead during the amount of time it takes me to put clothes in the dryer – which I did not know before last night.

Kyle Lowry is fast. But LeBron’s steal in the midcourt area and subsequent breakaway slam was like a virgin on prom night. Quick. He left Lowry to choke on his exhaust fumes at the starting line.

The Rockets even tried fouling to stop the transition buckets being poured on top of them. Most of the time the Heat, and especially Wade converted the bucket in spite of the fouls. Aaron Brooks had to essentially take a swing at Wade, hitting him across the face and arms with his forearm, to make him miss a layup. Wade actually started bleeding, and after much protestation by Heat coach Eric Spoelstra, Brooks was given a flagrant foul.

If this Heat team can adapt to different styles of play this quickly in the regular season with one third of a season playing together, the playoffs are going to be very interesting.

I have no idea.

Framed by the recent Blockbuster trades* made by Orlando’s GM Otis Smith, I am anxious, but not nervous, about the somewhat veiled intentions and direction of my favorite team’s front office.

You can read about the intricate aspects of Orlando’s two trades on the internet. I, however, need to take a deep breath and remind myself of some organizational differences between my team and the team it swept into history’s “Finals Appearance” column.

Orlando has Smith (who has done ok – building a team capable of representing a weak conference in the 2009 Finals).

Houston has GM Daryl Morey and a front office comprised of very smart people (whom have built through two inherited, broken superstars).

Orlando has a legitimate superstar in Dwight Howard surrounded by an overpaid cast.

Houston is a team of well priced, complimentary pieces in need of a superstar.

Orlando was expected to continue competing for the Eastern Conference and NBA titles, as had been the case for the past few seasons.

Houston was expected to compete for a playoff spot and a second round appearance after reintegrating Yao into the lineup.

Because of Orlando’s high expectations, Smith is feeling the pressure and reacting to it like my stepdad reacts to shots of liquor: he is throwing up all over himself. Smith is abandoning a plan in the middle of its execution and heading in another direction, yet again.

Abandoning plans seems to be the only contiguous plan Smith is running in Orlando. Leading into this most recent plan, Smith had changed course in equally dramatic fashion. He let go of “engine that stirred the drink” on Orlando’s Eastern Conference Championship team, Hedo Turkoglu, to bring in Vince Carter.

Now he has traded Carter for Turkoglu.

He also traded the league’s second most untradeable contract – Rashard Lewis $19,573,711 this year, $21,136,631 next year and an unguaranteed $22,699,551 in 2012/13. Which was good.

He acquired the league’s most untradeable contract – Gilbert Arenas and his $17,730,694 this year, $19,269,307 next year, $20,807,921 in 2012/13, and $22,346,535 in 2013/14. Which was bad.

Smith has signed the equivalent of an adjustable rate mortgage on a home in a trendy, though speculative, neighborhood. He gambled the long term future of the Magic for an immediate re-haul of a team which was close last year but has underperformed for 25% of a season this year. Rather than wait another 15-20% of the season to allow his squad more time to pull together, he pulled the trigger to acquire one particularly onerous contract (in addition to Turkoglu’s). When that ARM resets to its higher rate, Orlando is going to be staring at an additional year of a bad contract.

I imagine that some Orlando fans are excited about the potential this trade sings. Is that song closer to Queen’s “We are the Champions” or a ballad of the Sirens? Some in Orlando have to be with me in leaning toward the latter. In which case, I wonder how they feel Otis Smith is treating them?

On a recent Bill Simmons podcast, Washington Wizards owner, Ted Leonsis, said he feels the responsibility as caretaker of what is actually property of the city of Washington. He outlined a progression of steps and stated flatly that winning will take time.

Leonsis’ was candid and personable. He was willing to assume the responsibility of a city landmark as long as that city would give him time to build something worthwhile. And he knows the city will give him that time if he is honest and open about the direction in which he will lead.

*Blockbuster is capitalized because most of the big names in the trades were most relevant when Blockbuster Video was relevant. ZING! (you know a joke is good when you have to explain it)

Upon initially hearing of the trade, my immediate thoughts gave cause for concern over my favorite Rocket. At present, I have all but resigned my attachment to Shane Battier so as not to create a scene when I see Rockets’ GM Daryl Morey walking out the farmhouse door with a shotgun in his hands and tears in his eyes.

Yes, I believe William’s arrival is a death knell for Battier’s run as a Rocket, if not before February’s trade deadline, then surely in the offseason when his contract expires. The Rockets have no immediate title hopes and appear headed into a yet unknown level of rebuilding mode. With Yao pretty much down for the count, it will be rebuilding and not reloading. Battier’s time in the league is waning and would be more valuable elsewhere. I hope he contributes to a deep playoff run before he retires.

BUT T-WILL, MY GOD!!! The kid is amazing and a source of unlimited comedic potential. I am predicting interviews along the lines of Clinton Portis. I do not think he is a bad person, but rather, affably eccentric like the great grandmother who gives you a catheter for Christmas because she knows you go on road trips. That is not the type of personality that jives with Avery Johnson, his former coach in New Jersey.

My infatuation with T-Will stems by proxy from a great friend from college, who we will call Johnny, because that is his name. Johnny, who calls Louisville, Kentucky home, loves the University of Louisville. I mean, the guy literally bleeds U of L’s school colors, something I would like to see Orange Bloods try. He has eaten at the table next to this table!!!

Johnny is also an incredibly thoughtful and intelligent man of the mold who typically chooses his words with purpose. So when I asked for his opinion on T-Will’s impending arrival to the launch pad, I hoped I would get something I could at least hang a hat on.

But when Johnny’s response incorporated phrases like “freakish athlete in a league of freakish athletes” and “worked his (butt) off,” I glee’d all over myself. Such praise made it very easy to rationalize other words, like “immature” and “eccentric,” which Johnny wrote. But instead of me taking his words out of context, have a gander for yourself:

Of course I’ve never met the guy, so this is all hearsay and my own opinions from having watched him closely for his four years at Louisville.

He really is a freakish athlete in a league of freakish athletes, so watching him play is always fun.  In Louisville he just had/has a reputation of being a free spirited/eccentric guy.  He was never arrested or in any trouble with the law….my impression is that a lot of people think he’s a trouble maker or has been arrested a bunch, or at the least a bad egg, but i don’t think that’s the case (again, never met him, but anecdotes you hear around town of the way he treated kids, greeted fans, etc, were always positive…like he went out of his way to be nice).

Obviously, that’s a tough story to sell now given that he’s apparently not been the best teammate in NJ.  My educated guess about all that is that he had some personality conflicts with team management and simply took that out in really immature ways….not exactly a ringing endorsement, but it’s definitely different than being a bad guy or someone who is looking for trouble.

It was cool to watch him develop over his 4 years at U of L.  His first 3, he basically just got by on his athleticism…the book on him was that you couldn’t really stop him in transition or getting to the rim, but if you sat back and let him shoot, you’d have a chance.  But by his senior year, he was doing everything for the team, basically ran the offense, and worked his (but) off to improve his outside shot, and it really showed.

I should note, however, that the last game of his career was in the 2009 Elite Eight when Michigan St. just blew us out.  He left a bad taste in some people’s mouths because he and Pitino apparently got into an argument at halftime over the way he was playing….he didn’t play much the second half as I recall.  Pitino apparently still loves the guy though.

My feeling is that if he gets put in the right situation, he will thrive and really contribute.  Bottom line is that he’s probably immature, but he’s not a bad dude, and my feeling (hope?) is that his best basketball is in front of him.

As fans, this trade is the second step toward understanding the meaning of the 2010/11 Rockets’ season. On the first step, we watched the team jam a toe on the doorframe and stumbled into mediocrity: a team not good enough to compete for anything of consequence or bad enough to be competitive in next summer’s lottery.

This trade signals something more than just Morey’s usual opportunistic snacking on another team’s quandary. Juxtaposed against the news of Yao’s (final?) setback, the Rockets took a definitive step toward a different future than what had been optimistically planned at the outset of the season. The acquisition of Williams suggests player development will be a higher priority. Williams, like Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger and Ish Smith, is a player in crude form in need of refinement.

This is no longer Yao’s team in absentia. Without the foundation of a superstar (even if it was one of hope against further injury), a new identity needs crafting around Houston’s young players.  Crazy thing is, the Rockets’ average age is 26. Houston is mainly a bunch of youngsters!  These are the ages on Houston’s roster:

Patterson: 21

Budinger: 22

Smith: 22

Hill: 23

T. Williams: 23

Lowry: 24

Brooks: 25

Lee: 25

Hayes: 27

Martin: 27

Jeffries: 29

Scola: 30

Ming: 30

Battier: 32

Miller: 34

Removing Brad Miller, Battier, Yao and Jared Jeffries, the team’s average age drops to 24. While Miller has another year on his contract, the latter three will most likely not be on Houston’s roster next season. Yao might be, but not at $17 million dollars.

This does not mean that the Rockets are going to be way under the salary cap next summer. The only way that could happen is if Battier, Yao and Jeffries are retained through the end of their contracts this season, and Houston renounces its rights to those players. Renouncing their rights would free the Rockets of the free agent amounts, or cap holds, of those players. Houston would then have to take additional steps by renouncing its rights to Torraye Braggs, Mark Jackson, Maciej Lampe, Dikembe Mutombo, and the legend that was Jake Tsakalidis. All five former players count against Houston’s cap because they have not officially retired.

Far more likely would be a trade of Battier and Jeffries that would bring back some salary obligations. Those salaries would likely inhibit any chance at major cap space. And with a looming lockout, this may all be an exercise for naught. Cap space has an undefined value in this time of uncertainty.

Returning to my step analogy, Terrence Williams is that second step. He is a playmaker and a rebounder, making him the perfect accoutrement to our diminutive scoring point guard. THE ROCKETS SHOULD NO LONGER LOOK TO TRADE AARON BROOKS.

Brooks outside shooting and attacking is a better match than you could ever hope to find in a cigar store for T-Will’s skill set. T-Will is a physical wing who can defend, rebound, and who looks to make the assist. One of his biggest faults is that he too often looks to make the impossible assist. Rick Adelman, you might recall, has some experience taming that lion.

This Rockets team is being reinvented, and Yao’s loss only accelerates that movement. Out from under Yao’s shadow, Morey’s front office team is at long last granted the room to flex its’ creative muscles. As the first move of a new era, Williams better friggin’ realize the gift of a second chance and put his career at the fore of his thoughts.

The New Jersey Nets have traded Terrence Williams to the Houston Rockets in a three-way deal that will land them Los Angeles Lakers guard Sasha Vujacic and a pair of first-round draft picks.

Let me first say, I love this trade. And not just for its potential impact on the Rockets but also, for personal reasons.

Second, I have not finished the entirety of what I want to write about it, but do not want to delay, any further, posting something on the Rockets’ recent move. Thus my thoughts in bullet point fashion in advance of a real piece of writing.

• The Rockets acquire Terrence Williams, New Jersey’s 2009 1st round pick and 11th overall, and his salary obligations for their 2012 1st round draft pick, lottery protected (lottery protection means that if the pick happens to be in the top 14, the Rockets would defer giving up the pick until a later date).

T-Will’s salary obligations:

• 2010/11 – $2,214,480 (prorated)
• 2011/12 – $2,369,040
• 2012/13 – $3,143,716 (Team Option)

Les Alexander is demonstrating his faith in Daryl Morey and a commitment to winning (trying to, at least):

• The Rockets are above the Luxury Tax threshold and are thus paying a dollar for dollar fine for T-Will’s incoming salary.
• Alexander would not be willing to do so without good reason.
• The Rockets’ pick in 2012 would most likely have been a cheaper slot on the rookie wage scale as that scale is determined by draft pick order.
• Thus, Terrence Williams 2009 11th slot likely costs more than anything after the 14th slot in the 2012 draft.
• This, of course, depends on the new collective bargaining agreement that will be in effect (hopefully in time for next season).

I am frustrated that this move was not made this past summer, when the same conditions presented themselves:

• Team A wants to clear cap space to make room to acquire superstar(s).
• Team A is willing to deal troubled former 1st round pick at discount.
• Team B has need to acquire offensive spark and can afford risk involved in character issues.
• Team B acquires troubled, yet talented, player from Team A for a relatively inconsequential future draft pick.
• You can plug in New Jersey and Miami into Team A and Houston and Minnesota into Team B.
• I would rather have a former number 2 overall pick (Michael Beasley) than a number 11.

I am still happy the Rockets acquired T-Will, however:

• Minny gave up a 2nd round future pick for a player with a higher ceiling.
• Houston gave up a 1st rounder for a player with a lower ceiling.

This is how I envision it happened:

• The Rockets front office was sitting next to the Timberwolves front office in homeroom and happened to look over the Timberwolves front office shoulder. An innocent glance was caught of some summer reading homework. Not a complete glance, as it were, and just by accident, probably.
• The Timberwolves turned in their summer homework and received a once prodigiously productive prospect. The Rockets followed suit, turning in their homework and receiving their own misfit.
• The Timberwolves got an A+. Hopefully, so too will the Rockets.

Shane Battier’s days in the “Mustard and Ketchup” appear numbered.

Where does Budinger fit going forward?

Terrence Williams, as I will explain later, is not a bad person by any stretch.

• Read this article written a year or so ago, for some character background.
• Actual T-Will quote: “We’d do stuff like come up to you in the cafeteria, knock your sandwich out of your hand and say, ‘You’ve gotta come strong to your mouth!’”
• Now you are privy to one of my friends’ inside jokes over the past year: “Gotta come strong to the mouth.”
• I am happy to share it; use it prodigiously.

More coming, oh so soon…

I can only recall two franchises having been purchased by their respective leagues: Phoenix Coyotes in the NHL and the Montreal Expos in MLB. I was, planning to gleefully extrapolate the MLB’s mismanagement of the Expos to garner hopes of a Rocket’s acquisition of significance. The Expos were placed under such tight financial constraints that they were forced to bow out of a playoff chase because MLB’s commissioner, Bud Selig, would not authorize a few $50,000 expenditures.

But comparing Selig and David Stern was too much of a stretch (you’ll understand the sarcasm in a second). The former has preserved an institutional “integrity” through a steadfast refusal to embrace common sense change (instant replay) that is killing the future of the sport by driving kids (the people who become professional players) into other arenas. Stern, conversely, has globalized his sport becoming one of the most popular leagues and brands in the world.

No, that would be far too outlandish. So instead, I devised a trade that could never happen (AND HAS NOT BEEN RUMORED) but makes absolute sense…to me (I ran it past co-Red94 contributor, Ben Heller, and he saw things differently, with valid arguments I seem to have misplaced).

ROCKETS:

Acquire – Chris Bosh and Monta Ellis. Yup, I said it.

Divest – Aaron Brooks, Chase Budinger, Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries, and Kevin Martin

GOLDEN STATE:

Acquire – Kevin Martin, Jordan Hill, Evan Turner

Divest – Monta Ellis, Brandon Wright

PHILADELPHIA:

Acquire – Jared Jeffries, Brandon Wright, Chase Budinger

Divest – Elton Brand, Evan Turner

MIAMI:

Acquire: Elton Brand, Aaron Brooks, Draft Picks from Knicks via Rockets

Divest: Chris Bosh

Take a deep breath.

HOUSTON

A starting five of: Kyle Lowry, Monta Ellis, Shane Battier, Luis Scola and Chris Bosh doesn’t need too much explaining.

MIAMI

For Miami to participate in this trade is so unrealistic that Bud Selig would have to be managing the Heat for this to have any legs. First, Bosh did not want to come to Houston. Trading him here would just piss him off. Second, Miami would have to admit to a complete miscalculation, swallow its pride, and be willing to take another risk (on Brand’s health). Additionally, Miami’s player-GM, LeBron James, would not likely be open to trading the Batgirl to his and Wade’s Batman/Robin dynamic.

But, let’s pretend that the Miami season is stuck around .500 in January. The playoffs are in sight, but team cohesion is passed out under a table in a Miami nightclub with a half-empty LIT in its hand, a bloody nose, and its cell phone turned off. On a scale of 1 to “college senior with beer goggles,” how desperate are LeBron and Wade? My back of the envelope analysis leans toward “regrettable decision” desperate.

Who is a better hook-up option than a defensive center capable of scoring on the block and a reliable outside shooting point guard who can create his own shot in a pinch? Throw in a draft pick or two, and that’s baby making music.

For the most part, NBA teams need more than two guys who can score on their own to compete for a ring (2000’s Rockets contrast sharply against the early 2000’s Lakers). Losing Bosh would thus necessitate players to fill his offensive output. But converting Bosh into two players capable of scoring, one of whom can create his own shot, while upgrading Miami’s biggest weakness, post defense? That seems palatable, on paper at least.

Brooks gives the Heat not only a sorely needed perimeter shooter (with LeBron and Wade, a team could never have enough, even with the return of Mike Miller), but the little water-bug can also carry an offense for long stretches when neither LeBron nor Wade are willing/available to do so.

The key to the Heat’s side of things is Brooks’ rookie contract. It is cheap this year, allowing him to fit alongside Brand in the salary cap hole vacated by Bosh. More important would be the Heat acquiring Brooks’ Bird Rights, allowing them to circumvent the Salary Cap in order to retain him (given the current structure of the CBA) at his higher, market value next year. The Heat is unlikely to find a talent such as Brooks to fit into the Mid-Level Exception.

Brand is admittedly a risk, but this past summer was his first not spent in rehab (injury, not with Vin Baker or Tiger Woods) in 2 years. This season has been his most productive in years. Seems logical to connect those two dots, no? His trade value is its highest it will ever be.  He does not warrant a max deal as he is no longer a focal point, but 15ppg, 8rpg, 1.5spg, and 1bpg are good numbers for a team that needs defense at the rim. His veteran status means he can contribute right away and be willing to put the team ahead of his own stats.

The draft picks give the hope of reloading complimentary players on the run.

PHILADELPHIA

Philadelphia appears to be giving up a lot. That is primarily because it would be. A lot of money would be walking out their door. A lot. $20,561,819 out the door with only $11,062,743 coming in and only $4,178,943 carrying over to the 2012 season because of Jeffries expiring $6,883,800 contract. Philly would have salary obligations of about $37 million in 2012, or $21 million under the current salary cap.

Saving over $16 million by giving up an overpaid veteran and a heretofore disappointing draft pick is not an unreasonable move. This move also places them within $900,000 of the actual salary cap. So if Philly could cut another $1 million, it would have the flexibility to become a facilitator in subsequent trades. The Sonics/Thunder were able to accumulate fantastic assets from teams seeking to dump distressed assets – 1^st round pick from Phoenix for taking on Kurt Thomas’ huge contract.

Elton Brand’s contract is bigger than my…well, its big. Brand has been a bust in Philly due to injuries. He is also a veteran on a young team, wasting his production for a future he will not be party to. Unloading him would be revising history for the better. Would it be the equivalent of telling JFK on April 2^nd 1961 that plans to invade Cuba by way of the Bay of Pigs were just a bad April Fool’s joke? No. But it would allow 76ers GM Billy King to escape the mistakes of the previous regime (Parallel – Dwight Eisenhower’s administration actually drew the plans for the Bay of Pigs invasion that happened 3 months into Kennedy’s presidency).

Another little nugget in this scenario is the playing time previously allocated to Brand would presumably be given to youngster Mareese Speights. The kid has solid per minute numbers and just needs more experience. I say presumably, because Doug Collins embraces player development in the same manner I embrace changes to my golf swing: it’s uncomfortable and frustrating even though people tell me it will pay off in the future. And just like I am only a mediocre golfer on my best days, Collins is a…well…Doug just isn’t who you want leading a young team.

A larger dose of Speights added to a corps of Andre Iguodola and Jrue Holiday is a great foundation as Holiday has emerged as a potential Russell Westbrook-like PG. Budinger is more than a throw in, especially at his price tag, and Wright offers a recoupment of some of the potential lost in the departing Turner.

GOLDEN STATE

Golden State is building a Team, and it should not be Monta Ellis’. Stephen Curry is a man. He needs the reigns. Ellis will only impede Curry reaching his full potential. David Lee is a great complimentary-star – superstar numbers with a workman’s attitude. Lee and Curry are among the best passers at their position and Ellis is not ideally suited playing off those two, despite his ability to put up good assist numbers.

Golden State needs young, bench depth to grow along with its budding stars.  Adding another athletic shot blocker and rebounder in Jordan Hill who does not need the ball to contribute to team wins is a start. Hill playing alongside Biedrins would be an imposing and athletic frontline. Acquiring the No. 3 pick in last summer’s draft, Evan Turner, is a great gamble given his demonstration of growth and contributions at Ohio State. Philly has not been able to reach him (Doug Collins + Kwame Brown = History repeating itself), but the kid has shown he can play.

Acquiring Kevin Martin maintains the Warriors’ three star blueprint. It also never hurts to have another perimeter threat who can knock down threes and get to the line. Martin can space the floor in a Jeff Hornacek roll for a Curry-Lee duo.

Acquiring Hill, Turner and Martin fills significant needs in the Bay Area and offsets the offensive loss of Ellis while turning the team over to Curry. A starting lineup of Curry, Martin, Dorrell Wright, Lee and Andris Biedrins with Hill backing up the posts off the bench has plenty of firepower and size.

Golden State, however, would exceed the luxury tax threshold this season by about $200,000 (or $400,000 because of the dollar for dollar tax in doing so). That could be mitigated in a subsequent trade fairly easily or in this one by sending an expiring contract to Philly.

Exhale.

Remember, I made this up. It is speculation. Your additional speculation is encouraged in the “Comments” section. But this is not a report of anything other than wishful thinking.

This Rockets team reminds me of the protagonist in John Knowles’ “A Separate Peace.” Knowles’ hero suffers a crisis of identity after a traumatic injury.* Referring to the asterisked book report below, Houston’s team lost its identity in the spate of injuries early in the season. If Yao’s injury was tragic, the loss of Aaron Brooks to a sprained ankle suffered during a half-court heave to beat a half-time buzzer is Shakespearean (obviously not at the level of Macbeth, but more at the level of crayon doodles from Stratford-Upon-Avon pre-K).

Yes, I am fully prepared to eat the crow I unwittingly began preparing a few months ago.** When I called for the trade of Aaron Brooks, things were different.*** I still think his trade value is inflated by <my presumption that the first metric typically seen on an individual level is> average scoring.  Brooks also has something else, because this team was not as erratic last year with largely the same cast of players.

*I hate this book for the same reason every dumb extremist**** hates books: it’s boring and it pissed me off. Writing from a 9th grader’s memory: The antagonist in this book was actually the hero, albeit tragic. Knowles’ provides a unique vantage as the book is narrated by the antagonist; a consciously flawed adolescent envious of the perception of ease in which the hero conquers life. The hero has grand plans for himself that are literally shattered when he severely breaks his leg and is sapped of his identity. Yada Yada…the book is deep in meaning and metaphor, but the only reason I remember it is because Knowles’ denounces sarcasm as a cheap imitation of real humor, which is funny only in the irony that the book could only be funny to a depression suffering sadist.

**Is this the Aaron Brooks bandwagon? Because I left my favorite hoodie somewhe…is that seat taken?

***Different = full of promise.

****”I was elected to lead, not to read.” –McBain, Simpsons

Questions/musings off the top of my head:

1. This sucks.

3. What effect will the lockout and its negotiations have on player contracts – specifically will teams be able to sign more stringent non-guaranteed contracts allowing them to cut players as easily as NFL teams?

4. Can thought #3 be retroactively applied to Kyle Lowry’s contract? (Just kidding, Kyle is going to start playing better any day now. And it won’t matter anyway as his contract was signed before the lockout – remember KG’s monster deal that was effectively grandfathered into the 1999 CBA?)

5. With the NFL and now the NBA likely headed toward a lockout, I need to get back into a serious fantasy baseball league. Or start following the NHL (please, no).

The big ones for me are:

The 1984 NBA Draft trade that never happened: Houston trades Ralph Sampson to the Bulls for the No. 3 pick (Michael Jordan).

Actually, that’s about it for the big ones, but Game 6 of the 1986 NLCS – “The Greatest Game Ever Played” – is worth noting right alongside The Greatest Comeback Ever, or as Houston knows it: The “there is no God, and I need to cancel the Super Bowl party that I planned during the first half” game.*  I may have been too young to remember the Astros losing to the Mets, but Mike Scott is my favorite Astro(I somehow had his rookie card which, as a 3 year old, I took as my duty to write my name on the back). I remember the Oilers game; I can tell you where I was January 3^rd, 1993 (neighbor’s playoff party), down to where I was standing (kitchen) and what view I had of the TV (20 feet straight back).

Of course, I play small games of ‘what if’ with the past decade of the Houston Rockets. What if Yao had a good point guard at some point early in his career? What if Bobby Sura had stayed healthy? What if the Rockets could have won Game 3 or 4 (played in Houston) of the first round of the 2006 Playoffs after taking the first two games in Dallas, when Tracy McGrady played out of his mind, carried the Rockets on offense, and guarded Dirk Nowitzki in crunch time?*

But I do not play what if for the 2002 draft, when the Rockets selected Yao with the number one overall pick. Yao was the consensus choice. The 2002 draft was not a precursor to its 2007 counterpart. There was no Kevin Durant to give David Stern even a modicum of drama at the podium. Although, I remember Dick Vitale vehemently argued for the selection of Jay (nee Jason) Williams (eventual 2^nd pick) out of Duke at that spot, even after it became obvious Jay had employed Nick Anderson as his free throw coach.

Amare Stoudemire (9^th) and Carlos Boozer (35^th) are the only rivals to Yao’s complete hegemony of that draft class, and neither has won anything more than Yao, much less brought a nation of billions to the NBA’s front door. And while Yao has been the consummate teammate and professional, Stoudemire and Boozer have appeared petulant and greedy.* Additionally, both have battled their own chronic injuries. Caron Butler (10^th), Nene (7^th), and Tayshaun Prince (23^rd) were the only other notables from the 2002 class.

Even later, Houston’s front office faced a no-brainer decision in re-signing Yao. He is a fantastic talent, and he generates a presumably large, yet unknown, quantity of “Yao Revenue” from China. No one blames Hemingway’s Old Man for letting himself be dragged out to sea to almost die, even though in the end all he manages to bring to shore is the mutilated carcass of his foe-cum-achievement-cum-conscience – maybe that was a bad analogy.

From drafting Yao to retaining Yao, Houston has made the correct choice. Don’t waste your time second guessing those decisions. It is fairly easy to argue Yao’s top spot amongst the true giants of the game and, perhaps, even a spot somewhere among the average giants, too.

In fact, Yao’s career production generally exceeds that of the centers to which he is most often compared: Rik Smits, Arvydas Sabonis, and Zydrunas Ilgauskus.*** It even appears that Yao’s newly mandated playing time of 24 minutes per game (mpg) could be predicated by the careers of these three “successful” giants.****

Yao’s 23.0 career PER (a metric that encapsulates a players general productivity with 15.0 being league average) is only rivaled by the 21.2 of Sabonis. Smits and Ilgauskus mustered more than adequate averages of 17.9 and 18.8, respectively.

Smits, the Dunking Dutchman, stood 7’4” and played on chronically bad feet which limited him to 26 mpg for his career. Smits began his career at 23 and retired at 33. His minutes peaked at ages 28 and 29 when he averaged 30 mpg. No coincidence then, that he was injured for significant portions when he was 29 and 30 years old. Smits was not only able to return, but return effectively as well. He played three more seasons in the NBA, averaging 26 mpg. During that span he averaged a PER of 19.1 with a career high of 20.2 at age 32.

The 7’3” Sabonis began his NBA career late as a 31-year old rookie in 1995-96. The late start was due to contractual obligations and in part to immigration/political issues during the Cold War. He is generally regarded as the best Euroleague player ever (though Allen Iverson is making a bid to overtake him), having won titles with Real Madrid after averaging 23 and 13 in 1994-95. By the time he made it to the U.S., he was on the down slope of his career. The Trailblazers limited him to 24 minutes per game over the course of his 7 year NBA career. Carefully managed minutes preserved what was left of his balky knees and ankles (he had ruptured his Achilles in 1988), allowing him to average 71 games per season. His 32 mpg (over 73 games) at age 33 were a high.

Ilgauskus, 7’4”, suffered major foot injuries that caused him to sit out most of his second and all of third years in the NBA. I remember avoiding him in fantasy drafts after those seasons because his feet were almost guaranteed to give out over the course of the season. After averaging close to 30 minutes per game during his rookie season, Cleveland reduced his average to 25 and then 21 in his fourth and fifth seasons. Those numbers gradually escalated as he proved more and more durable.

If the Rockets are to blame for anything, a lack of foresight would be it. Basically, these three centers extended their careers because of careful time management after it became evident that 30 minutes per game was unsustainable. At 7’6”, Yao is larger than Smits, Sabonis, and Ilgauskus. That would seemingly necessitate more cautious career management, but Yao gave Houston’s front office a big dose of “Serenity now, Insanity Later.”

Serenity Now – On young legs and less bulk, Yao was able to play in all but two games his first three seasons combined. As a 22 year old rookie, Yao averaged 29 mpg, the lowest average of his career. 29 mpg is higher than the career averages of the other three.

Insanity Later – In Yao’s fourth season Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones combined could not have saved Yao from the injury bug. In seasons 4, 5, and 6, Yao averaged only 53 games but saw an escalation in minutes from 34 mpg in 2005-06 at age 25 to a career high, 37 mpg, in 2007-08.

This season, the Rockets have implemented a time allowance that confers with the sustained health of the preceding giants – 24 mpg. Is it too late? Presumably not, if we are able to use the career arcs of Smits, Sabonis, and Ilgauskus as comparisons. Under careful management, each of Yao’s predecessors returned from injury and contributed at about their career per minute norm. But the question still remains: how much should Yao’s future seasons cost the Rockets…just kidding, I’ll stop.*****

*I know it was only the wild card game, but we were going all the way in the first half.

**This is the T-Mac I choose to remember. I understand the sense of betrayal most have, but he was really good before devastating defeats (the Orlando-Detroit series and the aforementioned Houston-Dallas series) dumped all over his psyche. Now, a bunch of Detroit kids will sound like Ray Kinsella when they talk about T-Mac: “I only saw him years later, when he was worn down by life.”

***Bill Walton and Kareem Abdul-Jabar were rumored to be at or above 7’3”, but the others are confirmed as such and possessed a skill-level that would otherwise belie it. Of the six, only Abdul-Jabar experienced sustained, All-NBA productivity. The rest battled chronic injuries to their lower extremities, especially to their feet.

****There is a reason Yao is not compared to Shaun Bradley and Manute Bol. That reason is talent.

*****In the final year of their respective careers:

Smits: 17.3 PER and accounted for 36% of the Pacers’ salary cap in 2000

Sabonis: 20.5 PER and 17% of the Blazers’ salary cap in 2003

Not only is this interesting because the Rockets’ back-up center, Brad Miller or Jordan Hill, just got promoted, but also because of Yao Ming’s probable fate as a back-up center (or sit-down comedian) in the future. It is never too early to get excited about the next off season.

A starting center in the NBA*** makes anywhere between $918,000 (DeJuan Blair of the Spurs) and $17,686,000 (Yao) for the 2010-11 season. The average of all 30 starting center’s salaries is $7,385,140. However, because of the relative extremes on either edge of the salary range, I should note that the median salary for starting centers is $6,213,458. The Spurs are employing the cheapest starter by almost half the salary of the second cheapest. Yao Ming and Dwight Howard are the highest paid by over $4 million and $3 million, respectively.

I am trying to restrain myself from writing about DeJuan Blair’s lack of an ACL in each knee…not nearly as much irony as that time the US Consumer Product Safety Commission recalled 80,000 lapel buttons promoting “Toy Safety” because the buttons: a) had sharp edges, b) used lead paint, and c) had parts that could break off and be swallowed…but worth mentioning.

So Yao makes a lot of money, even in comparison to other starting centers, who in turn make a lot of money compared to me. I just hope that they each have that special someone (or two or three or four someones) stashed in different cities to shower with gifts because: “Presents are the best way to show someone you care. It is like this tangible thing that you can point to and say, ‘Hey man, I love you this many dollars worth.’”

The Rockets’ intended back-up centers, Brad Miller and Jordan Hill, will make $4,400,000 and $2,669,520, respectively. The 30 second-string centers average $3,368,216, or 45% of the salary of those who tip-off. The median was found to be at about the half mark as well, $3,287,320. So, although the Rockets are paying a premium at starting center this season, backup center is a potential area of cost efficiency. Jordan Hill is close enough to serviceable already, and he is still bursting with defensive intensity and potential. Coupled with the fact that he has more career left in him than Miller, does it not make sense to find out just how much the Rockets have with him? At the very least he can demonstrate trade value.

Hill’s value jumps off the page when his statistics are extrapolated over 40 minutes from the 18.7 he actually averages. On a 40 minute per game basis, Hill would average 12.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and a startling 3.5 blocks – 9th in the league per 40 minutes. There is plenty of room for improvement, especially considering Hill was a more efficient scorer and better rebounder for the Rockets last season. Hill would probably never see 40 minutes, at least on a regular basis, but he is finding ways to contribute at a cost below the average wage. It is worth wondering, too, how many rebounds are being taken away by a certain Argentine playing out of his mind.

Additionally, if Hill is given a chance to develop this season with significant playing time, he provides a small comfort for next season when Yao’s contract will surely be scaled back or non-existent. Now would seemingly be the time to ascertain Hill’s value playing center next to Luis Scola. Else the Rockets must attain a starting caliber pivot via trade or free agency for next season.

I would hope that we are all in agreement that Yao’s on-court production does not warrant his stature as the highest paid player at his position. His production was more than passable as a back up however, which begs the question: Are the Rockets able to transition Yao into a Bill Walton-esque role off the bench?  After career threatening injuries cut short Walton’s starting gig with the Portland Trailblazers and San Diego/LA Clippers, Walton reinvented himself with the help of Red Auerbach as a role player in Boston. As a Celtic, Walton came off the bench in the 1985-86 season to average almost 20 minutes in 80 games, more games than he had ever previously played in one season. He shot efficiently and rebounded and blocked shots at close to his career rates to help the Celtics win the title that year.

Granted, Houston will not be able to surround Yao with multiple Hall of Famers, thereby all but ruling out a championship. But could Yao reinvent his role on the team to possibly be employed as a cooler to stop opposing teams’ runs or a closer to finish games? Can a team handle that type of player rotation? Would it be a safety blanket players know they can fall back upon or a disruption that destroys cohesion?

If I had to sum up the Rockets’ plan going forward in one word, it would be: Strategery. But does Daryl Morey have a Lockbox for this particular scenario?

*Seinfeld reference – The Strike featuring Festivus and The Human Fund

**Obviously Yao did not die last night, but his career is asking, “What are you doing?” To which Yao’s feet are replying, “I’m burying you.” Not only that, but those bass turds are working me, as a Rockets fan, over like a speed bag.

Every time Yao dives for a loose ball or takes a charge, I cringe, waiting for the sucker punch below the belt. These two illustrations capture the feelings I can expect while Yao is on the court:

1) In high school, while playing lacrosse, my best friend successfully deflected a shot with a certain region that should otherwise be protected by a cup. He crumpled to the ground, rolled over twice in agony, then sprang to his feet and sprinted about 30 yards down the field. All of that while stripping himself of his pads and simultaneously pulling his shorts away from contact with the hurt region. It took him awhile to get his house in order.

2) Milliseconds after teeing off the par 3, No. 7 at Old Brickyard in Dallas, my shallowly struck ball reversed direction off a protruding a railroad tie framing the front of the tee box. Pain erupted from that certain area as my backswing was cut short. A few moments later, from the fetal position, I realized the pain was coming from my thigh and not my wedding tackle. While I had a welt the size of a golf ball for over a week on my inner thigh, I was able to take a drop and card a well earned 5 (tee shot, drop, hit to green, two-putt).

As long as the Rockets are dependent on Yao, I am going to experience the emotional equivalent of #1 or #2 every time Yao hits the deck.  Will I sigh in relief at what was surely a close call and continue playing along? Or do I suffer the hard rubber ball to the groin of a lost season when Yao breaks his foot?

Either way, Yao is painful at $17 million.

***According to Yahoo! Sports depth charts

A quick primer: The NBA has a limit teams can spend on player salaries called a salary cap. Much like the national budget, this cap is routinely exceeded. To preserve the intent of the salary cap, the NBA has a luxury tax that assesses a dollar-for-dollar fine to teams in the amount they exceed it. The luxury tax does its job fairly well, but deep pocketed owners can be impervious.

Also, for your ‘glossing over’ pleasure:

1. The 2010-11 NBA Salary Cap is $58,044,000 and the Luxury Tax Threshold is $70,307,000.
2. For the 2010-11 season, the Rockets have player salary obligations totaling $72,319,761 (not including newly signed Eric Dampier).
3. Yao Ming will make $17,686,100 this season, and his contract expires after this season.
4. Shane Battier ($7,354,500), Jared Jeffries ($6,883,800), Aaron Brooks ($2,016,692), and Chuck Hayes ($1,972,500) also have expiring contracts – totaling $18,227,492.
5. The Rockets have a total of $35,913,592 (#2 + #4) in expiring contracts, roughly half of which is attributable to Yao.
6. The Salary Cap figure is stipulated by the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), which the NBA (League Office, Teams, Players, etc.) has been operating since 2005.
7. The CBA expires after this season, making the 2011-12 Salary Cap unknown.
8. Current CBA negotiations between the Player’s Association and the League Office are moving slowly. The League Office wants to reduce player salaries thus instituting a lower salary cap.

So…Yao Ming…(insert horrible “you don’t even have to say there’s an elephant in the room because the dude is already huge” joke). Yao is the 8^th highest paid player in the NBA, but the Rockets are only planning to play him 24 minutes a game. This almost makes him a safe entry as the fourth choice in the “would you rather be a MLB bullpen catcher, back-up NFL QB, or professional golfer?” question.

One might consider the Rockets lucky that Yao’s contract expires after this season as his salary would no longer count against the team’s salary cap. The Rockets could therefore use that space to acquire a healthier, 7’5”, dominantly skilled, immediately-marketable- to-a-nation-of-billions player. Except if that were the case, I would not have had the chance to mention my mother in the disclaimer above, and we would all lose out.

No, the Rockets will not immediately have Yao’s $17 million at their disposal. While that money is removed from the Rockets’ payroll, it is still applied to their salary cap at the end of the season in the form of a “free agent amount,” or cap hold.** Larry Coon is a little more technical in his explanation than me and my asterisk.*** Cap holds are a necessary pain as they close a loophole that would allow a team to circumvent the salary cap.****

Cap holds can follow teams around for a long time.

How long?

Good thing you asked or I would not have been able to drop this little nugget: Does the name LaSalle Thompson mean anything to you? Indiana’s cap has had his $854,389 clogging its system like a bunch of swallowed gum. The guy last played in the NBA during the year of the following events:

Princess Diana was buried, Bill Clinton was sworn in a second time, the Dow Jones first closed above 7,000, the Heaven’s Gate cult committed suicide, and my favorite episode of Seinfeld, The Voice, aired – “Attention Play Now employees, George Costanza’s handicapped bathroom is now open on the sixteenth floor to all employees and their families.”

Essentially cap holds go away when a free agent signs with a team, new or former, or is renounced by his former team. If a free agent resigns with his former team, the cap hold amount is replaced by his new contract amount. If the free agent signs with a new team, the cap hold is erased from his former team’s salary cap. The reason for the longevity of some cap holds, like Mr. Thompson’s, is explained here.

So the Rockets must first decide their plans for Yao and the players mentioned in #4, above, in order to begin to calculate the amount of money they will available under the salary cap next summer. But this is currently rendered impossible due to the Collective Bargaining Agreement expiring after this season.

The Rockets are able to plan ahead in a limited capacity as the fundamental purpose of the future CBA will remain unchanged from what is currently in place: namely that the NBA needs it to operate. Profits will still be divided amongst the players and teams, players will have contracts, teams will be able to draft, sign and trade players, etc.

Ideally, a team would not want to allocate 24% (30% of the cap) of its payroll to a player who is only going to play the league average of minutes per game. Yet, the Rockets have no choice this season. Which makes the following points of great interest to me: a) can Coach Rick Adelman incorporate Yao into a successful rotation; b) how will the front office assess Yao’s performance in order to understand his value going forward into future seasons; and c) how will (a) affect (b)?

We can evaluate the first point in terms of wins and losses. If Adelman pulls it off, the Rockets win more games. To evaluate the second point would require Dustin Hoffman’s character from Rainman and a book on actuarial sciences.

That is not to diminish Adelman’s role but to highlight that no one knows if Yao is going to be Rik Smits or Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Both were tall, both had issues with their feet (presumably due to their size), but only the latter recovered well enough to extend his career for a meaningful duration.

It is guess work on how much longer Yao can last. Likewise, no one knows what the exact terms of the new CBA will be or what next year’s salary cap will be. There are significant unknown variables that the Rockets must take into account when formulating a plan.

Ideally, Yao makes it through the entire season under the imposed time constraints. Ideally^2, Adelman effectively incorporates Yao into a winning rotation. Then, at the very least, the Rockets would have an idea of Yao’s future effectiveness and a foundation from which to negotiate a new contract.

Yao in a diminished role is still a valuable asset to keep on the team. I have no knowledge of the Rockets’ revenues, much less the amount above league average that is attributable solely to Yao/China. But according to Tad Brown, the Rockets’ CEO, five Chinese companies have courtside signs, and Anheuser-Busch and HP have signs in Mandarin at the team’s arena in Houston. While the Rockets must share the broadcast and merchandise revenue equally with the other teams, the team keeps 60% of revenue generated from its arena signage. At what cost does that figure justify keeping Yao?

*“Our offense is like the Pythagorean Theorem.  There is no answer.” – Shaq

**Yao Ming’s cap hold can be described in terms, very rough terms, as a situation that occurs when you are on a budget but are still taking your girlfriend out to a nice dinner at her favorite spot. Let’s pretend that you have a certain amount of monetary space on your credit card, which, if exceeded, will result in embarrassment leading to irreconcilable differences.

At the restaurant, you are waiting for your girlfriend to order what she wants so that you can make your order based upon how much of your budget her order eats up. But she tells the waiter to come back to her because she can’t decide. You don’t know what she is going to order, but have to book it as the max to accommodate her future decision. Until she makes that decision, your budget is restricted by the highest amount she could spend ordering.

Your budget has been slapped with a cap hold.

Cap holds, however, are league enforced. So instead of you getting to estimate her cost, the maître d’ remembers what she ordered on your last date, takes your credit card and bills her meal in advance, plus 5% more. (The percentage varies based upon the player’s previous contract. Yao’s dictates a 5% increase.)

*** “little more technical” = better

**** The loophole is created by the Larry Bird Exception (which allows teams to exceed the salary cap to resign its own free agents). Without the cap hold, a team could:

- let their expiring contracted players become free agents,

-sign other teams’ free agents with the cap space vacated by those free agents, and then

-use the Bird Exceptions to go over the Salary Cap to resign their own free agents.

What if the Rockets were to reduce the need for scoring from the point guard spot by complimenting Martin, Scola, and Yao with another scoring threat? Could they do that without ceding production in other areas like defense and 3-point shooting?

The Rockets could trade Shane Battier and Aaron Brooks to the Charlotte Bobcats for Gerald Wallace to achieve such a lineup.* The salaries are a match.** Charlotte gains the solid point guard which it craves, and Larry Brown, Charlotte’s coach who relishes intelligence and veterans, gets the smartest player in the league in Battier.

Under such a premise, Kyle Lowry moves into a starting role immediately adding defense and play making to the back court. While losing Battier hurts from a leadership and professional perspective, Wallace is an immense upgrade on the court. He has one additional year after this season on his contract (and a player option for the 2012/13 season). Most importantly, Wallace appears to contribute statistically in the areas Houston values most.

Last season, Wallace had an eFG%*** of 55.7 from behind the arc. He also attempted 7.2 free throws a game and made 5.6. Accordingly, his TS%**** was 58.6, good for 7^th at his position for players playing in 40+ games. He is also an outstanding rebounder. Amongst small forwards, Wallace ranked 1^st last season. His 10.0 rebounds per game last year placed him 16^th in the league overall.

The Rockets’ defense could see an upgrade as well, but that is hard to gauge because of Shane’s contributions to the team effort on that side of the court. Shane provides something very few other players in the history of the game have with his sheer intuitiveness and intelligence. It is not hyperbole to consider Shane irreplaceable.

The impact of losing Battier could be mitigated by the addition of Wallace in conjunction with the promotion of Lowry. Wallace has the numbers to suggest he is a more than adequate replacement on the defensive end. Lowry’s increased minutes from the starting position would also help on defense.

Last season Wallace averaged 1.5 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. He also collected 0.58 charges per game last year. That number would put him second on the Rockets, a team which easily lead the league in charges taken last year. Lowry averaged 0.75, Scola 0.50, Chuck Hayes 0.45, and Martin 0.41.

It would be hard to let Shane and Aaron go. But with capable replacements at point guard and an upgrade at small forward, the Rockets would be consolidating assets by acquiring Wallace in an exchange. Wallace is capable of providing a defensive impact to replace that of Battier, and his scoring and shooting offset those attributes we cherish in Brooks.

* Update – As noted by reader ‘jmwilliamson’, the author is not reporting on any rumors but is merely stating a possible scenario. This is not even a scenario the author fully supports. Actually, this is not even a report. It is simply something he found interesting and wrote on the back of an envel…that’s where that expression comes from!!! Thanks to  jmw for the help.

** According to Shamsports.com, Wallace signed a 6 year deal worth $57 million in 2007 that has easily achievable $1 million dollar bonuses. Wallace counts $10,500,000 toward the cap which accommodates Battier’s $7,354,500  and Brooks’ $2,016,692. Brooks and Battier’s  salary is $9,371,192 combined which is within the acceptable salary exchange range.

***Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).

**** True Shooting Percentage; the formula is PTS / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)). True shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

On the Rockets-Knicks side, Houston got the right to swap first round picks with Knicks in 2011 as long as it is not the number one overall pick, and the Rockets lay claim to the Knicks 2012 first round pick as long as it is outside the top five picks (in which case the claim is rolled over to the proceeding draft and so on until 2015 when it turns into second round picks).

The Knicks got Tracy McGrady. And his desire to succeed despite all obstacles.

The Rockets got Knicks’ 2009 First Round pick, Jordan Hill, and Jared Jeffries bloated contract.

The Knicks got enough cap space in the summer of 2010 to raise and, subsequently, crush the hopes of their fans like a piñata at a Quinceañera party. Except instead of candy, out spilled five future years of mediocrity.

(Seriously, what is the difference between Amare Stoudemire and Allan Houston at this point? This is not a rhetorical question…Both played for absurd contracts that essentially pay by the point. Expectations of returning the team to glory of years past are the same. Both players missed significant time due to injury…The answer is, as Alex Trebec would say: “Height. We were looking for height.“ By the way, if you enjoy laughter, it is worth watching the 4:40 mark of that video.)

Besides making a large group of Northerners feel worse than they already did, the real value for the Rockets is the right to swap picks in the 2011 draft. Yes, Jordan Hill has potential. But he is a known commodity after a year of NBA service. If the Rockets are using the pick as a piece of a trade, nothing entices a stupid GM like the projected potential of a high draft pick. Below are some more reasons the 2011 pick is the most valuable of what the Rockets got from the Knicks, in the context of a potential trade.

No. 1 The picks are assets that do not count against the salary cap until the summer of their respective draft. You can think of them as liquid assets that are easily transferrable unlike players with contracts that must be fit within certain parameters. If something is easy to move, it has that much more value.

No. 2 The second Knicks’ pick is top five protected. Historically, value decreases significantly after the 5^th pick. This is well described by Elena Bergeron: “No-brainer picks at the top of the pile typically account for an estimated wins average somewhere between 7.5 and 4.5 every year. Between picks 6 and 10, the difference in how a potential draftee will sway a team’s fortune barely varies more than a single game. So, even if your team has a lottery pick, the talent available once the first five are off the table isn’t comparable.”

No. 3 The Knicks would seem to be more likely to have a worse record in the 2010/11 season than subsequent seasons, having had only one off-season to improve their roster (see reason 4) from a pathetic 29-53 campaign.*

By the 2012 draft, the Knicks will have had two summers to rebuild and improve their record. The Knicks will have about $42 million in committed salary heading into next summer. That allows them about $16 million to upgrade their roster further, depending on where the cap is next year.

No. 4 The Knicks did upgrade their roster heading into this season…just like your friend upgraded his living situation from a rent he couldn’t afford to his parent’s house. If Amare’ Stoudemire, Raymond Felton, Ronny Turiaf, and Anthony Randolph are considered upgrades, then who were they running out before?

To answer that question, the Knicks’ most heavily used starting rotation last year was Chris Duhon, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Jared Jeffries, and David Lee. Better combinations could be found in a port-o-john. This upcoming season, the Knicks could conceivably start Ray Felton, Bill Walker, Gallinari, Anthony Randolph, and Stoudemire.

Felton is good at…um…running fast while dribbling. He continues a long line of Tar Heel ineptitude at the PG spot (video of one of my favorite basketball moments ever).

Bill Walker was going to be good, and I hope he overcomes all that bad luck. After this season.

Danilo Gallinari is a prototypical Euro import: shooter, long, white, and no defense (which could lead us to an inappropriate prophylactic joke (as opposed to the appropriate ones)). His 42.3 FG% is undermined because most of his shots are from behind the arc, where he sports a 57.2% eFG% (a measure that weighs made 3 point shots 1.5x more than made 2 pointers because, well, they are worth 1 more point which is 0.5 the value of a 2 pointer). His rebounding improved to almost five a game last year, his second in the NBA.

Randolph has the potential to be like Chris Webber – a PF who can score and pass and call timeouts. But how many performers reach their potential after 3 years of disappointment? Besides Lindsey Lohan.

Stoudemire is good if you like efficient scoring…on both ends of the floor, because he does not play defense (just like Allan Houston).

In summation, the Rockets took advantage of the Knicks’ desperation to sign a star this summer past. Houston’s only negative in the trade last season, Jared Jeffries’ contract, is now an asset. Besides his contract expiring after this season, Jeffries is a great defender who can defend four positions. Any team hoping to contend with the Heat or Lakers could use some of that. The draft picks are fantastic assets because of the hope they inspire. And the 2011 pick inspires more than the 2012 option.

*The Knicks spent $2,918,208 for each of their 29 wins last season on player salaries alone. For comparison, the Rockets spent $1,649,472 for each of their 42 wins, and the Cavaliers spent $1,391,957 for each of their league leading 61 wins.

Is the brass tacks a credible means of evaluation? In most cases, yes. Authors Jason Fried and David Heinemeier Hansson argue for solutions that “deliver maximum efficiency with minimum effort,” in their book Rework. George Clooney’s character in Up In The Air states without prejudice, “I’m like my mother, I stereotype. It’s faster.” It is easy to agree that getting Carmelo Anthony for Carl Landry, a second round pick, passes those tests.

Taking a step back to gain more perspective, I struggle to find an argument against trading a second rounder for a superstar. Weird. Such a move absolutely maximizes value. A superstar inherently holds more value. He is recognizable as a marketing tool and sells merchandise and tickets. He gets the team on SportsCenter. He attracts more talent. Yada yada…

…”But you yada yada’d over the best part,”*. No, I mentioned SportsCenter. Certainly, our expectations for the Rockets with Anthony would have to be recalibrated. From a sheer profit perspective, and the Rockets organization is a business trying to maximize margins, adding Carmelo is like onboarding Roger Sterling…he may not do a lot of heavy lifting, but he gets you exposure and sells stuff.

But as a fan, thinking outside a business perspective, I don’t want to lose Kevin Martin. Imagine my relief when Rockets General Manager, Daryl Morey, proclaimed Kevin Martin would not be traded. Do I blindly trust that statement? No, but it is somewhat reassuring. Much like my college buddy, Shively, never minded hearing the words, “I would never,” regarding his sister, a freshman when we were juniors. Of course, one of Shively’s own suitemates shattered that dream.

If the Rockets are not going to part with Martin, I do not see the Nuggets clamoring for the chance to sign our dance card. To acquire Anthony the Rockets could conceivably offer Jared Jeffries, Shane Battier, and a combination of Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger and the Knicks 2011 and 2012 picks. By accepting that, the Nuggets would gain $14,238,200 in expiring contracts, a prospect or two and the allure of high draft picks.

I do believe that defensive specialists on the wing like Battier and Jeffries hold more value after this summer. Serious contending teams like Miami and the Lakers have more than just one perimeter threat that requires special attention. With that in mind, the Nuggets could conceivably package Battier or Jeffries and point guard Chauncey Billups for a trade with a contender (Spurs – Tony Parker, DeJuan Blair, James Anderson and Curtis Jerrels?) to further initiate their rebuilding process.

The Nuggets jumping on that scenario is as unlikely as Paris Hilton opting to flee the United States for Japan. That already happened?

The Nuggets should not be sweating this out just yet. First, they know that Carmelo knows that his contract prospects are adversely affected by the looming lockout. So the Nuggets control the size of Carmelo’s future contract. Second, I question the value of the Knicks’ draft picks the Rockets possess. I do not believe they are worth what the mainstream media has led us to believe. And, yes, that is the subject I was reading into before the Carmelo stuff came back to the fore. The Nets and Knicks, therefore, are able to offer more attractive packages than the Rockets, and both NYC-metro teams are salivating over Carmelo. (The Knicks should be willing to part with Danilo Gallinari and Anthony Randolph for a chance at pairing Amare’ Stoudemire with Carmelo Anthony).

It is a testament to Morey and his staff that the Rockets’ are positioned to offer what was once a second round draft choice for a superstar. I just hope that they don’t do it.

*Seinfeld, “The Yada Yada”

Elaine: “Yeah. I met this lawyer, we went out to dinner, I had the lobster bisque, we went back to my place, yada yada yada, I never heard from him again.”

Jerry: “But you yada yada’d over the best part.”

Elaine: “No, I mentioned the bisque.”