The playoffs show us something curious: the difference between the ideal and the practical. A “bad matchup” suggests, to me, not some rare quirk of the game or misnomer, but that we evaluate players with too much lack of the particular. When I hear X is better than Y, but Y is just a bad matchup for X, I think: You’re measuring incorrectly.
Better, worse… who cares? Rankology and hierarchy be damned. We should look at the pantheons of players and teams like a periodic table, not a one-way list. Some mix well, others don’t—the goal, as a viewer and lover of the game each season, is not necessarily to determine who is best. Everyone loves that base bit of pride, surely—stick your finger up in the air with Aloe Blacc on in your Beats, I dare you to do it without swelling with self-worth at the thought of war won through your surrogate ballers—but the strange and varied permutations of humanity-by-way-of-athletes is what truly beats our hearts.
First, the benches
Click for a full-sized, interactive version
At the end of the regular season, the Portland Trailblazers was the most bench-allergic team in the league. Portland played its bench 29.55% of the time, or dead last in the league. I’ve noted that, given the bench data, the Golden State Warriors and Trailblazers are in precarious states because they both play their benches very little, and their benches aren’t very good. One injury to an overworked starter portended disaster. One Andrew Bogut injury later, I feel pretty proud of my prediction (though bad for the Warriors). And while the Blazers might not be injured, they are most definitely tired. Take a look at Portland’s field goal attempts and their opponents’ over the course of the season.
The Blazers accelerated their pace through January, but have played significantly more slowly since. Their opponents, who were once being run off the court to the tune of four fewer field goal attempts per game in January, have now turned the tables and are out running the Blazers. Think the Blazers lack of bench utilization has something to do with these trends?
Posted in essays Tagged stats
The main thing you don’t want to do at the start of a playoff series is to lose game one. You also want to avoid having a key player suffer an injury, try to prevent the opposing star players from absolutely detonating and most of all don’t let double digit leads evaporate in record time. Unfortunately, the Houston Rockets went ahead and did all the things they shouldn’t have done, coughing up a huge loss in overtime and dropping home court advantage. The good news, if there is any, is that home court advantage seems to be meaningless so far, with road teams winning 5 of the 8 games this weekend.
The Rockets and NBA fans in general have a lot to be sore about in that game, mostly focusing on the confusing, inconsistent, frustrating officiating that seems to have taken over half of the playoff games so far. In the end, it was likely a wash for the Rockets, but the calls were seemingly random in frequency, legitimacy and direction. The NBA admitted to badly blowing a call at the end of the Clippers vs Warriors game on the 19th of April, and this game has a flagship call as well. Dwight Howard was called for his sixth foul late in overtime and the decision was questionable, to put it mildly. Replay showed Joel Freeland outright hugging Dwight, and a public admission of error is likely tomorrow. Whether that call would have helped or hurt the Rockets is frankly immaterial. The refereeing is obtrusive, distracting and disruptive, three things that are absolutely critical to avoid as a league.
Game one of the most important playoff series of the year tips off tonight, and to celebrate we at Red94 put together our own little roundtable to discuss what we think about the Houston Rockets and the playoffs this season. Mitchell Felker, Paul McGuire, Richard Li and myself answer five burning questions below.